Yugoslavia
One view of the war . . .
• “It’s really a tragic problem . . . The hatred
between all three groups – the Bosnians,
the Serbs, and the Croations – is almost
unbelievable. It’s almost terrifying, and it’s
centuries old. That really is a problem
from hell.”
- Warren Christopher, Secretary of State under
President Clinton
Geography and Demographics
• 6 republics: Slovenia,
Croatia, BosniaHerzegovinia, Serbia,
Montenegro,
Macedonia
• 2 autonomous
regions in Serbia:
Vojvodina and
Kosovo
Geography and Demographics
• Many ethnic groups: Serbs, Croats,
Slovenes, etc.
• Serbs largest in country, but not majority
• Complications: boundaries of ethnic
groups not the same as boundaries of
republics!
Ancient History
• Prior to WWI: Area dominated by AustroHungarian (in NW) and Ottoman (in SE)
Empires.
• No history of fighting, groups not enemies.
• At times, groups cooperated to oppose
foreign occupying powers.
First Yugoslav State
• Formed at the end of WWI.
• Marriage of convenience, entered into
willingly by all parties.
First Yugoslav State
• BIG challenges:
– Poor, war scars, diversity
– Political: what would this new state look like?
• Serbs: wanted strong, centralized state to protect
Serb minority populations in other regions.
• Others: wanted decentralized state to protect
against Serb domination.
First Yugoslav State
• Solution: a strong, centralized state
– Serb preferences won out (this time).
– Other groups not happy, but try to work
together to iron out problems.
WWII
• Hitler invades Yugoslavia in 1941
– Installs puppet regimes in Serbia and Croatia.
• Croat state (Ustasha): cleanse Croatia of Serbs.
• Serb paramilitaries (Chetniks) organize and fight
Ustasha.
– Horrific fighting, bitter memories. Irony:
Ustasha not popularly chosen.
WWII
• Tito and the Partisans
– Communists.
– Integrating force.
– Fought with Allies
– Fought civil war against Ustasha and
Chetniks
– Won, took power at close of WWII
Tito’s Yugoslavia
• Inherited a tough situation:
– Economic devastation
– Bitter memories of civil war
– Demographic snake pit: what to do about
Serbia?
Tito’s Yugoslavia
• Use the CP as an integrating force.
• Promote ideology of growth and development.
• Stomp out nationalism.
• Not a democracy. Dissent and opposition not
tolerated. CP only game in town.
• Rely on personal popularity and charisma.
Tito’s Yugoslavia
• Give republics autonomy over own affairs.
• Each republic gets a veto vote in the
Federal Presidency.
• Make Vojvodina and Kosovo autonomous
regions, give them veto votes in the
Federal Presidency also.
Tito’s Yugoslavia
• Consociationalism:
– Power-sharing by groups.
– Under-represent the largest, over-represent
the smallest.
– Devolve as much as possible to the subnational level.
• Balance and constrain Serb power.
Tito’s Yugoslavia
• Happy Days:
– Country experienced economic growth into
the 1970s.
– Peace!
• But: costs of stifling alternative political
voices, vacuum when Tito died.
Post-Tito
• 1980s: Economic slowdown, population
distressed, unhappy.
• CP bureaucrats paralyzed by crisis:
– What was good for one region was bad for
another.
– Regions used veto in Federal Presidency to
block any policy that hurt them.
– Stalemate!
Post Tito
• Political crisis also:
– Serbian leaders unhappy about status of
Kosovo and Vojvodina.
– Tried to address problem legally, but were
blocked by veto power of other republics.
– Deadlock!
Moves by Serbia
• Serb politicians look for way around the
deadlock: appeal to Serb grievances in
Kosovo.
– Kosovo: historical significance to Serbs.
– Serbs a minority in Kosovo (largely for
economic reasons), felt discriminated against.
– Politicians: Serbs are being run out of their
homeland! (exaggerated claim, but effective).
• Weakened CP doesn’t shut them down.
Moves by Serbia
• Enter Slobodan Milosevic
– 1987: President of Serbia, Ivan Stambolic,
sends Milosevic to Kosovo to hear out the
complaints of the Kosovo Serbs
– Was supposed to stick to CP anti-nationalist
line.
Moves by Serbia
• Instead, took the side
of the nationalists.
• Famous words,
addressing crowd:
“You will not be
beaten again.”
Moves by Serbia
• “Rallies for Truth”
– Orchestrated by politicians
– Demanded end of autonomy of Vijvodina and
Kosovo
– Dramatized situation of Serbs in Kosovo
– Spread from Serbia to other area of
Yugoslavia, escalated in tone and demands.
• Non-Serb leaders continue to refuse to
negotiate with Milosevic.
Moves by Serbia
• Milosevic topples leaders in Vojvodina,
Kosovo, and Montenegro, installs men
loyal to him.
• Radical effect on balance of power in
Yugoslavia: Milosevic now controls 4 out
of 8 votes in the Federal Presidency.
Response of Slovenia and Croatia
• Leaders of Slovenia and Croatia very
nervous, set about trying to weaken the
federal authority of Yugoslav state.
• Slovenia:
– Backed Albanian resistance in Kosovo
– Refused to allow rally for truth
– Pulled out of Yugoslav CP
Response of Slovenia and Croatia
• Croatia:
– At first: try to broker compromise, preserve
Yugoslavia
– Strategy changed abruptly with election of
Franjo Tudjman in May 1990.
Response of Slovenia and Croatia
• Tudjman and cronies:
provocative
nationalists.
– Checkerboard flag.
– Serbs: secondary
minority status.
– Purged Serbs in local
governments
– Talked big about
taking Croatia out of
Yugoslavia.
Escalation
• Serb minority in Croatia: scared. Fears
played up by Serb politicians.
• Summer 1990: Serbs in Krajina (area of
Croatia) armed themselves and declared
self-rule.
• Tudjman: formed own paramilitaries
Escalation
• June 1991: Slovenia and Croatia declare
independence.
• Serbia lets Slovenia go without fight.
Escalation
• Not so Croatia. Serbia, plus Yugoslav
National Army (JNA), fight to keep it in.
• Large-scale war erupts in Croatia.
Fighting spread from there to Bosnia.
Implications for Ethnicity
Theories
• Contrary to Primordialism:
– The war was not the result of “ancient”
hatreds. Conflict between groups was
relatively new.
– Peace was the norm, not war. If conflict was
so inevitable, how did they avoid it for so
long?
– Why 1990 instead of 1950?
• Instrumentalism helps explain timing: the
rise of Milosevic and Tudjman.
Implications for Ethnicity
Theories
• But instrumentalism, with its focus on
rational cost/benefit calculations, is
insufficient.
– Why did the people respond? Emotions –
anger, fear, distrust, resentment made them
receptive. Not “ancient” but no less real.
– Also difficult for instrumentalism: the brutality
and emotion of the fighting.
– Can’t explain a bloody process with a
bloodless theory!
Implications for Conflict Theories
• Yes, grievances existed.
• However, they were nothing new. Why did
they suddenly flower into conflict?
Societal explanations important, but
insufficient.
Implications for Conflict Theories
• Politicians played a critical role: whipped
up emotions, initiated conflict.
• At national level, change in political
leadership important: Tito suppressed
nationalism, his successors encouraged it.
Implications for Conflict Theories
• But also key: the weakness of the
Yugoslav state after Tito.
– Communist Party: unable to cope with
challenges.
– Veto power of republics => deadlock.
– State unable to contain nationalist politicians,
gave them critical window of opportunity.