From Evidence to Action
4th December 2014
Church Growth:
fresh expressions of Church
Canon Dr George Lings
Director - Church Army’s Research Unit
1
www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk
@ChurchGrowthRD
#EvidenceToAction
An analysis of fresh expressions of Church and
church plants begun in the period 1992-2012
Strand 3b of the Church Growth Research Project
Jon Vivian
Work sponsored by
The Church Army as part of
a St John Durham consortium
&
The Church Commissioners
Claire Dalpra
George Lings
Elspeth McGann
Church Army’s Research Unit
2
From Evidence to Action
4th December 2014
We were part of a welcome shift – to decisions based on evidence
rather than relying on anecdote or assumption
Church Growth:
‘I rather doubt it’
3
www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk
@ChurchGrowthRD
#EvidenceToAction
A representative
selection of dioceses:
• North/south/east/west
• Urban – mixed – rural
• Pro fxC – unconvinced
All their fxC, begun in the
period 1992-2012
We interviewed the
leaders by phone, using a
pre-set questionnaire
Result: 98.5% response rate
from all the leads given
In the leader’s view …
4
From Evidence to Action
4th December 2014
Findings missional & ecclesial
H2O
Hydrogen with Oxygen = Water
Leave either out and you don’t get water
‘Fresh expression’ = contextualised & missional
‘of Church’
= the identity is ecclesial
Missional with Ecclesial = fresh expression of Church
Omit either … its not an fxC [it’s OK to be something else]
Our ten criteria tested for the presence of both
Only 46% of all cases qualified
5
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@ChurchGrowthRD
#EvidenceToAction
Missional measures
of fresh expressions of Church
in 10 dioceses
It turned out to be against
a hitherto unknown backdrop
of decline in the dioceses selected
6
www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk
@ChurchGrowthRD
#EvidenceToAction
How many fxC and how many attend?
Diocese
nos of
fxC
Diocese
no. Ch's
fxC/dioc
Ch’s %
Dioc AWA
2011
fxC attd –
all age
fxC/dioc
%
Liverpool
78
258
30.2
28600
2933
10.3
Canterbury
72
328
22.0
19900
3177
16.0
Leicester
52
313
16.6
15900
1811
11.4
Derby
46
330
13.9
18000
1465
8.1
Chelmsford
50
598
8.4
41500
1830
4.4
Norwich
63
638
9.9
21500
2864
13.3
Ripon & Leeds 39
256
15.2
16100
1083
6.7
Blackburn
64
278
23.0
27200
2702
9.9
Bristol
33
205
16.1
17200
1727
10.0
Portsmouth
21
173
12.1
13700
1271
9.3
518
15.3%
20863
9.5%
In 7 / 10 cases the growth from the fxC reverses the decline in
these dioceses in the 6 years [06-11] of their reported figures
7
When did the fxC start? – by Diocese
60
92 - 98
50
99 - 05
40
06 - 12
30
20
10
0
Most cases are post Mission-shaped Church
The annual rate of starts is now x 4 compared with 2004
8
In the leaders’ opinion …
Rough proportions of three groups present
25%
40%
Christians
De-churched
Non churched
35%
9
Adults and teens/children at fxC
Attendance
Diocese
[all ages]
Liverpool
2933
Canterbury
3177
Leicester
1811
Derby
1465
Chelmsford
1830
Norwich
2864
Ripon & Leeds
1083
Blackburn
2702
Bristol
1727
Portsmouth
1271
Totals
20863
Adult
1693
1958
1229
858
1143
1703
648
1474
1069
625
12400
<16
1240
1219
582
607
687
1161
435
1228
658
646
8463
% Adult
57.7%
61.6%
67.9%
58.6%
62.5%
59.5%
59.8%
54.6%
61.9%
49.2%
59.4%
Context: <16s in 2011 Census
CE uSa <16s
CE AWA <16s
% <16
42.3%
38.4%
32.1%
41.4%
37.5%
40.5%
40.2%
45.4%
38.1%
50.8%
40.6%
19%
15%
20%
10
A significant investment
Diocese name
Team
sent
Liverpool
Canterbury
Leicester
Derby
Chelmsford
Norwich
Ripon & Leeds
Blackburn
Bristol
Portsmouth
595
1044
643
373
616
719
309
702
502
317
Total sent
5820
Attendance Ratio: of sent to
now
attendance now
2933
3177
1811
1465
1830
2864
1083
2702
1727
1271
4.9
3.0
There is
2.8
nothing else,
3.9
as a whole,
3.0
with this effect
4.0
in the whole of
3.5
the Church of
3.8
England
3.4
4.0
Ratio average 3.6
for every 1 sent, you get 2.6 more
11
Ecclesial evaluations
of fresh expressions of Church
in 10 dioceses
12
www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk
@ChurchGrowthRD
#EvidenceToAction
fxC: mostly small things – not a few big ones
Diocese:
Mean of attendance
across the fxc
Average dioc’
congreg’n size
% team size
sent of 3-12
Liverpool
38.1
110.9
73.1%
Canterbury
49.6
60.7
73.6%
Leicester
37.7
50.8
69.2%
Derby
36.6
54.5
82.6%
Chelmsford
40.7
69.4
72.0%
Norwich
47.7
33.7
77.8%
Ripon & L
30.1
62.9
74.4%
Blackburn
48.3
97.8
71.9%
Bristol
54.0
83.9
72.7%
Portsmouth
66.9
79.2
57.1%
Avg. 43.7
Avg. 73.4%
13
Small but also young churches
44% of them were
born after 2010
At most these ones
are three years old
14
www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk
@ChurchGrowthRD
#EvidenceToAction
Alternative Worship
Base Ecclesial Community
Café Church
Cell Plant - scratch or parallel
Children Focussed Church
The variety of fxC
All the kinds listed
proved to be needed
Cluster based Church
Community Development Plant
Intentional Community
Messy Church
Different natural unit sizes
Different leadership resources
Mid Week Service
Multiple Congregation
Network Church
New Monastic Community
Who do they focus on?
Older Peoples Church
School based Church
Seeker Church
Special Interest Group
Traditional Church Plant
Under Fives Church
Youth Church
Data across 10 Dioceses
Child focussed
7%
Adults only
19%
Serving all ages
74%
15
Some steps in discipleship
Diocese:
% taking some
steps
Liverpool
79
Canterbury
81
Leicester
85
Derby
54
Chelmsford
80
Norwich
71
Ripon & Leeds
87
Blackburn
81
Bristol
82
Portsmouth
71
Question posed:
Tick which of these you do
small groups
meeting 1-1
running courses
serving in teams
16
Steps toward responsibility / maturity
Total: Not At This Stage
[NAST]
26%
Total: Steps toward self Financing
[SEF]
48%
Total: Steps toward self Governing
[SEG]
64%
Total: Steps toward self Reproducing [SER]
38%
So 74% have started
on this journey
Derby 3 self
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
48%
NAST
SEF
SEG
SER
This vulnerability
was reported back
17
Steps towards sacramental life
Diocese:
Liverpool
Canterbury
Leicester
Derby
Chelmsford
Norwich
Ripon & L
Blackburn
Bristol
Portsmouth
Holds HC % Baptism %
47.4
19.2
48.6
36.1
40.4
26.9
21.7
26.1
36.0
34.0
33.3
47.6
43.6
33.3
35.9
42.2
33.3
42.4
28.6
47.6
Practice varies
with …
• Type of fxC
• Clientele
• Frequency of
meeting
Table 22
18
Norwich
FxC share the
C of E instinct
to serve all
kinds of area
Liverpool
2 dioceses:
one rural
one urban
19
Who can lead an fxC?
Diocese:
Ordained led
fxC %
All lay %
‘Lay-Lay’ led
fxC %
Liverpool
50.0
50.0
39.0
Canterbury
43.3
56.7
Leicester
43.3
30.8
Derby
69.2
52.3
48.4
51.6
39.1
47.7
52.3
41.5
54.3
45.7
59.3
40.7
50.0
50.0
Bristol
50.0
50.0
Portsmouth
45.2
54.8
34.6
35.2
35.4
35.0
51.6
48%
52%
40.0%
Chelmsford
Norwich
Ripon & Leeds
Blackburn
Averages
What is learnt from this?
20
The Church Army team
dug deeper into the lay-lay contribution
• The Lay-lay are different in respect of:
– Gender,
– employment [hence cost]
– and time given
• They do pretty much as well in terms of:
– Mission effectiveness
– Seeking ecclesial maturity
21
www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk
@ChurchGrowthRD
#EvidenceToAction
Traditions and fxC
Many cases cited > 1 tradition
Diocese
Liverpool
Canterbury
Leicester
Derby
Chelmsford
Norwich
Ripon & Leeds
Blackburn
Bristol
Portsmouth
Averages
Evangelical Charismatic
73
23
64
44
77
44
61
41
80
34
51
24
44
41
53
11
61
21
48
38
61.2%
32.1%
Central Anglo Catholic
24
9
42
6
31
4
48
4
28
8
59
14
46
23
50
14
55
12
57
5
44%
9.9%
NB The tables show what percentage of cases owned one
of the named traditions, at least in part
22
fresh expressions of Church and inherited Church;
Is this comparing apple seeds with apple trees?
Helpful in some ways but …
Their name claims …
Their data shows …
Their aspirations reveal …
They are Church already – not seeds
It’s more like comparing growing children/ teens with adults
Maturity can occur in any of them and be absent too
Identity is deeper than competence or practice
23
Growth patterns across fxC in 10
dioceses
24.7%
27.6%
Continue Grow
Grow-Plateau
Quickly Plateau
Fluctuate
9.0%
Grow-Shrink
11.5%
27.2%
• An open question: how many of the 1st 3 categories count as
success?
• A research question – what factors contribute to the variety?
24
The mortality rate in fxC
Diocese:
Liverpool
Canterbury
Leicester
Derby
Chelmsford
Norwich
Ripon & L
Blackburn
Bristol
Portsmouth
No. died
4
10
4
7
5
4
3
10
1
2
36% of the ‘died’ took no steps
towards discipleship. The average of
‘no steps’ for the 10 dioc’s = 22%
36% of the ‘died’ took no steps
towards a ‘three self’ ID. That
average in 10 dioc’s = 26%
54% of the ‘died’ had celebrated
communion but of those still alive,
38% had done so
Examples meeting fortnightly are
the most likely [16%] to die
9.7% 50/518 fxC
25
Loose Ends
Making the lessons available:
Chapter 7 has 2 pages on distilled lessons and traps to avoid
The pdf full report is available on the websites of
Church of England
Fresh Expressions
Anglican Church Planting Initiatives
Printed 137 pp versions are on sale today at £10
The 26 pp more popular pdf version and
a short DVD, for parishes, can be found at
www.churcharmy.org.uk/fxCresearch
26
Further action since
• Most of the 1st 10 dioceses have asked for a report to
their senior staff and some to diocesan synod
• With the Church Commissioners support, Church
Army have started on the next 10 dioceses
• Some dioceses have taken the initiative to request
being included
• Now the work is large enough to compare different
types of fxC, not least church plants with the rest
• We report in 2016 on the 20 dioceses, on survey
work with attenders and a pilot on sustainability
27
In conclusion …
• About one quarter of the English dioceses have been
surveyed for their fxC, at a 98.5% response rate
• How are we to think of these fxC?
We know our children are ours
But they are not us
It’s the same with fresh
expressions of Church
28
Responses, questions etc
?
?
?
?
?
29
www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk
@ChurchGrowthRD
#EvidenceToAction
Is it an fxC? The 10 parameters used
1. Is corporately Christian; a new and further group, not an
existing one that has been improved
2. Planters have tried to engage with non-church people in
their context
3. Meets at least once a month
4. Has a name, that gives an identity
5. An intention to be church
6. Is it Anglican? – Bishop sees it as part of the family
7. Some form of recognised leadership
8. The majority of members see it as their church
9. Aspiration for the 4 ecclesial / creedal relationships
10. Intention to become 3 self – in context
30
An Inclusion / Exclusion example
Included were 33 examples
Reasons to exclude 54%
Bristol
• A
- Arch on from fxC or towards an fxC
9
• D
- Died
1
• I - Infrequent [< monthly]
1
• N
- Not an fxC
• 2
- Duplicate record
2
• NY
- Not Yet: planned not started
1
• X
- eXcluded: outside of 1992 – 2012 period
6
20
[N]ot an fxC comprised:
1 Rebadged existing service
6 Rebadged small group or social events
7 Outreach projects [to bring people back to existing churches]
4 New events for Christians
1 Chaplaincy
1 Never C of E
31
Work Status of the Leader by Gender
Chelmsford as an example
Full Time
Part Time
Spare Time
Male Leaders
Female Leaders
Across 10 dioceses the most common combinations are:
Male, ordained, stipendiary, full time, leaders
Female, lay, voluntary, spare time, leaders
32
31.
Growth Ratios and fxC types
Growth ratio – adults and children combined
7.0
6.0
+4
5.0
+3
4.0
+2
3.0
+1
2.0
Total
growth
ratio
1.0
0.0
CEL TCP CLU NTC NTS CAF SIG NMC YTH SKR SBC CDP BEC ALT MUL OPC MES CFC MWS U5s
How many more
added for each
one sent ?
33
Mortality rates across types of fxC
NB On average 91% continue to live
34