Cabrillo Fall Student Headcount Projections
STUDENT HEADCOUNT & ENROLLMENT
Fall Historical
Projected Fall Enrollment
Lower Limit
Upper limit
20,000
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
Year
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Historic Headcount
Percent
Fall Actual Change
12,587
12,759
1.4%
12,129
-4.9%
12,767
5.3%
13,596
6.5%
13,767
1.3%
13,707
-0.4%
13,604
-0.8%
14,871
9.3%
15,231
2.4%
14,867
-2.4%
14,623
-1.6%
15,157
3.7%
15,056
-0.7%
16,069
6.7%
16,924
5.3%
16,467
-2.7%
15,732
-4.5%
14,842
-5.7%
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
Projected Headcount
Fall
Percent
Projected Change
14,222
-4.2%
14,250
0.2%
14,380
0.9%
14,520
1.0%
Lower
Limit
14,039
12,974
12,946
12,953
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
12,000
Upper
limit
16,806
15,807
15,832
15,881
Projected fall headcount is a gauge of demand and supply. The
current model suggests that demand is driven chiefly by
population growth, graduating high school class sizes, and
county unemployment levels. At the other end of the pipeline,
fewer openings for CSU and UC eligible students creates a
"squeeze down" effect of enrolling at community colleges. On
the whole, the number and mix of course offerings is perhaps
even the more important than demand. Classes continue to
filling to 95% plus capacity suggesting that funding cuts and
reduced courses are what is really driving down enrollments.
Projected fall headcount is based on projected county population growth, projected high school graduating class size, and Santa Cruz
County unemployement levels. A Prais-Winsten weighted least squares equation was run in Stata 8 MP to create the student
headcount forecast. This statistical technique properly handles the autocorrelation associated with a time series.
The projection assumes that fees will increase to $46 per unit in Summer 2012, creating downward pressure.
Sources: Data Warehouse (1993-2011); Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate
Projections by County, 2011 Series. Sacramento, California, October 2011 (most recent available); Department of Finance County-level
Demographic projections; and Claritas population and employment projections.
[Enrollment_Prj] 11/17/2012
Cabrillo College - FACT BOOK 2012
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