Cabrillo Fall Student Headcount Projections
STUDENT HEADCOUNT & ENROLLMENT
Fall Historical
Projected Fall Enrollment
Lower Limit
Upper limit
20,000
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
Year
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Historic Headcount
Percent
Fall Actual Change
12,587
12,759
1.4%
12,129
-4.9%
12,767
5.3%
13,596
6.5%
13,767
1.3%
13,707
-0.4%
13,604
-0.8%
14,871
9.3%
15,231
2.4%
14,867
-2.4%
14,623
-1.6%
15,157
3.7%
15,056
-0.7%
16,069
6.7%
16,924
5.3%
16,467
-2.7%
15,732
-4.5%
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Projected Headcount
Fall
Percent
Projected Change
15,030
-3.7%
14,633
-2.6%
14,631
0.0%
14,658
0.2%
14,550
-0.7%
Lower
Limit
14,320
14,039
13,307
13,279
13,286
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
12,000
Upper
limit
17,006
16,806
16,140
16,165
16,214
Projected fall headcount is a gauge of demand and supply.
The current model suggests that demand is driven chiefly by
population growth, graduating high school class sizes, and
county unemployment levels. Enrollment fees increased from $26
to $36 as of Fall 2011, exerting additional downward pressure on
enrollments. This downward pressure is offset somewhat by the
"squeeze down" effect of more CSU and UC eligible students
enrolling at the CCC as fees in those systems increase, as well.
The $10 increase in fees was associated with a 2% reduction in
actual headcount vs. expected headcount. The number and mix
of course offerings is perhaps even more important than demand.
Classes are filling to 95% capacity suggesting that funding cuts
and reduced courses are what is really driving down enrollments.
Projected fall headcount is based on projected county population growth, projected high school graduating class size, and
Santa Cruz County unemployement levels. A Prais-Winsten weighted least squares equation was run in Stata 8 MP to create the
student headcount forecast. This statistical technique properly handles the autocorrelation associated with a time series.
The projection assumes that fees will increase to $49 per unit in Summer 2012, creating downward pressure.
Sources: Data Warehouse (1993-2011); Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded
Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County , 2011 Series. Sacramento, California, November 2011;
Department of Finance County-level Demographic projections; and Claritas population and employment projections.
[Enrollment_Prj] 12/1/2011
Cabrillo College - FACT BOOK 2011
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