KARVY CURRENCY INSIGHT
DATE:16/05/2016
MARKET OVERVIEW
GLOBAL TRACKER
Markets in Asia are trading on a weaker
note tracking the US close on Friday.
Better than expected retail sales data from
the US activated dollar bulls and equity
bears.
Dollar index traded marginally higher as
talks of June hike re-emerged. Limited
economic data releases would help the
dollar and majors float at current levels.
MARKETS
YESTERDAY
Close
TODAY
CLOSE
Nasdaq
4737
4717
-0.41
Dow Jones
17720
17535
-.1.05
Nikkei
16412
16535
+.1.04
Hang Seng
19719
19749
-2.47
SGX NIFTY
7829
7812
-0.22
U.S. Market
% change
ASIA
Indian rupee is set to open on a weaker
note; WPI data is unlikely to have a major
affect. Rupees is trading near its 3 month
high and how demand and supply act at
this crucial levels would define the direction
for this week.
YESTERDAY
AT 5.PM
Global
Currency
NDF
TODAY
MORNING % change
EUR/USD
1.1350
1.1312
-0.33%
GBP/USD
1.4418
1.4368
-0.34%
USD / JPY
108.86
108.84
-0.18%
66.76
66.85
`+0.13%
USDINRSPOT
USDINR (May)- STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
BUY
66.89-66.92
67.15
66.79
EUR/INR(May)- STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
SELL
76.03-76.15
75.70
76.20
GBP/ INR(May)- STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
SELL
96.55-96.65
96.10
96.75
JPY/INR(May)--STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
RANGE
61.25-61.70
USDINR OUTLOOK
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Above is the Daily Chart of USDINR, the pair opened at 66.91, and made a high of 66.99 and was
trading in the narrow range throughout the day with doji pattern , the pair is expected to consolidate
until close above 67.05 levels with strong volume ,where 50dma lies as RSI stand at 53.16 levels .
STRATEGY(May)-
ENTRY
BUY
TARGET
66.89-66.92
STOP LOSS
67.15
66.79
RES
PIVOT
SUP
TREND
67.05/67.15/67.20
66.90
66.94/66.84/66.76
POSITIVE
Fundamental Overview
US dollar index is trading at 94.64, appreciating against most of the majors on Friday after a better
than expected retail sales data was reported. Retail sales improved by 1.3% for the month of April
against an expectation of 0.8% growth. Dollar rallied after the report but retracted some of the
gains. Limited economic data is likely to keep the US dollar afloat, with a focus on housing data this
week.
Economic Data & News
TIME
18:00:00
COUNTRY
USD
DATA
NY Empire State Manufacturing
Index (May)
ACTUAL
SURV
7.00
PREVIOUS
9.56
EUR/USD
EURINR
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD. Pair after opening at 1.1375 made a high of 1.1380 , and was trading in the narrow
range for the day with some negative bias, the pair is making lower top and lower bottom on hourly
chart with prices trading below its 200HMA that stand at 1.1400 until its trade above its recent
swing high of 1.1457 any exhaustive opportunity in the pair
STRATEGY
SELL
ENTRY
1.13401.1350
TARGET
1.12801.1250
STOP LOSS
1.1370
RES
PIVOT
SUP
1.1440/1.1490
1.1400
1.1280/1250
STRATEGY
SELL
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
76.037615
75.70
76.20
RES
PIVOT
SUP
76.05/76.35
76.00
75.81/75.68
Fundamental Overview
Euro is trading at 1.1306, depreciating against the US dollar after weak GDP report and the
positive US economic data. Euro area GDP for the first quarter was reported at 0.5% against an
expectation of 0.6%. There is no major economic data to be reported today and the pair is likely to
breach the 1.13 mark.
Economic Data & News
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
ACTUAL
SURV
PREVIOUS
GBP/USD
GBP/INR
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
ABOVE is the Daily chart of GBPUSD pair after opening at 1.4447, made a high of 1.4452 and
was trading volatile in the range of 1.4378-1460 with a support of 50DMA at 1.4375 and prices
finding resistance at 1.45 so ,it has been trading near 50 DMA level so if sustains then the pair
can correct to 1.4300,so any intraday exhaustive candle is a shorting opportunity
STRATEGY
SELL
ENTRY
1.43901.4410
TARGET
1.4300
STOP
LOSS
1.4430
RES
PIVOT
SUP
1.4460/1.4410
1.4400
1.4340/1/4300
STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
SELL
96.5596.65
96.10
96.75
RES
97.10/96.85/96.60
PIVOT
96.55
SUP
96.30/95.95/95.70
Fundamental Overview
Pound continued with its downward trajectory, trading at 1.4369 after making a low of 1.4337 on
Friday after the US economic data. Weak economic data during the previous week and verbal
warnings from the Bank of England governor about BREXIT supported the bears. Further downside
can be expected in the currency pair with a focus on consumer prices and retail sales.
Economic Data & News
TIME
COUNTRY
DATA
ACTUAL
SURV
PREVIOUS
USD/JPY
JPYINR
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USD/JPY pair after opening at 109.04 and made a low of 108.49 and bounce from the lower
levels, the pair is trading in the narrow range for past three days and is expected to consolidate
further as RSI stands at 48.79 and 20DMA at 108.79 with swing low of 105.51 and swing 111.89
STRATEGY
ENTRY
RANE
108.20109.50
TARGET
STOP LOSS
STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
RANGE
61.25-61.70
STOP LOSS
RES
PIVOT
SUP
RES
PIVOT
SUP
109.10/109.50
108.70
107.85/106.45
62.01/61.78/61.55
61.45
61.20/61.00/60.75
Fundamental Overview
Japanese Yen is trading at 108.94, trading near the 109.00 and depreciating against the US dollar
after last Friday data. Speculation about further easing from the Bank of Japan is driving the
USDJPY price higher. Focus would be on the first quarter GDP data scheduled to be released this
week.
Economic Data & News
TIME
COUNTRY
DATA
ACTUAL
SURV
PREVIOUS
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CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
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