The MTNCLIM Year: Western Climate 2011-12 in Perspective
Kelly T. Redmond
Western Regional Climate Center
Desert Research Institute
Reno Nevada
Estes Park CO
Rocky Mountain National Park
1-4 October 2012
Disclaimer
South
Central Sierra Snow Lab
East
Photo: Dave Simeral
Soda Springs Store
March 27, 2011
Tom Knudson
Sacramento Bee
Serene Lakes
March 27, 2011
Tom Knudson
Sacramento Bee
Spring 2011
June 2011
Ctsy Kevin Werner CBRFC
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov
Ctsy Kevin Werner CBRFC
Ctsy Kevin Werner CBRFC
Temperature
Ctsy Kevin Werner CBRFC
5/3/00
4/30/00
4/27/00
4/24/00
4/21/00
4/18/00
4/15/00
4/12/00
4/9/00
4/6/00
4/3/00
3/31/00
3/28/00
3/25/00
3/22/00
3/19/00
3/16/00
3/13/00
3/10/00
3/7/00
3/4/00
3/1/00
2/27/00
2/24/00
2/21/00
2/18/00
2/15/00
2/12/00
2/9/00
2/6/00
2/3/00
1/31/00
1/28/00
1/25/00
1/22/00
1/19/00
1/16/00
1/13/00
1/10/00
1/7/00
1/4/00
1/1/00
Number of SNOTELs with daily record SWE values
90
Ctsy Kevin Werner CBRFC
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Snow:
Colorado Mainstem (above Cameo)
Ctsy Kevin Werner CBRFC
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Wallow Fire
Arizona
2011 Jun 03
Wallow and Pacheco Fires 2011 June 19 0115 GMT
Wallow Fire and Spiral Low
2011 June 4 2200 GMT
Puyehue 2011 June 04
Puyehue 2011 June 05
Puyehue 2011 June 06
Puyehue 2011 June 13
Grimsvotn 2011 May 22
Soccoro Island
2011 June 11
MODIS
July 2011
August 2011
Summer 2011
September 2011
October 2011
Water Year 2011
2010 Oct 01
thru
2011 Sep 30
Water Year 2011
2010 Oct 01
thru
2011 Sep 30
Central Colorado Mountain Pine Beetle 2005 09 05
Central Colorado Mountain Pine Beetle 2011 09 28
KTR 20120930
November 2011
Autumn 2011
MODIS
2011 Nov 20
December 2011
January 2012
Annual 2011
MODIS
Where’s the snow ?
2012 Jan 2
2011 Dec 20 Tenaya Lake ... Skating persisted past mid January 2012
treeinthedoorvideo.blogspot.com
2011 Dec 20 Tenaya Lake ... Skating persisted past mid January 2012
treeinthedoorvideo.blogspot.com
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
2006
2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012 thru Aug
United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
February 2012
Winter 2011-12
Guymon Oklahoma 2012 Feb 26
Mount Shasta Southerly Winds 2012 Feb 07 1800 GOES
March 2012
April 2012
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Snow Comparison
NRCS Snotel Site
2010-11 vs 2011-12
MODIS
2012 Mar 4
14 March 2012 1730 GMT
25 March 2012 0030 GMT
25 March 2012 0030 GMT
25 March 2012 0030 GMT
25 March 2012 0030 GMT
Dust Storm, Carson Sink, 31 March 2012
Developing Cumulus 2012 April 12 345 pm MST
Bering Sea, Aleutians, Pacific MODIS 2012 April 17
Aerosol Effects of Sulfates 2012 April 27
Sulfate Aerosol Effects 2012 April 27
Chichon 19800217
March 1982
Rene Canul
Comision Federal de Electricidad
30 years ago ... 1982 April 3-4
Chichon 19860311
1982 Nov 4
Chichon 20110604
May 2012
Spring 2012
MODIS
500 m resolution
2012 May 12
June 2012
July 2012
NE Arizona 20120628 KTR
NE Arizona 20120628 KTR
NE Arizona 20120628 KTR
Oklahoma
2012 July 27
Gary McManus, OCS
Long Draw Fire
557,648 acres as of July 17
Oregon’s largest fire ever
MODIS 1 km
2012 July 11
Long Draw Fire SE Oregon 2012 July 24
Jamie Francis, Oregonian
Next to Long Draw Fire SE Oregon 2012 July 24
Jamie Francis, Oregonian
Long Draw Fire SE Oregon 2012 July 24
Jamie Francis, Oregonian
Russia 2012 July 3
MODIS
Noctilucent Clouds over Tibet International Space Station 2012 06 13
August 2012
Summer 2012
Smoking Section 2012 August 25 1415 GMT
16 August 2012
Number of Fires
250000
Number of U.S. Wildland Fires through September 22, 2012.
(numbers after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in 2007)
Average 1996-2011 = 79278 per year.
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Western Regional Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.htm
Number of acres
10000000
Acres burned U.S. Fires through September 22, 2012
Values after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in 2007.
Ave from 1996-2011 = 6.08 M acres.
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Western Regional Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.htm
September 2012
Water Year 2011-12
!!! Happy New Water Year !!!
Daily Global Temperature from Microwave Sounding Unit, Ch 5, 4.4 km.
University of Alabama – Huntsville. Roy Spencer
University of Alabama – Huntsville. Roy Spencer
Select: Rocky Mtn NP, 12 months ending in Dec, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.
Elevation of Freezing Level. Rocky Mountain National Park Annual. 1948 - 2011.
Percent of Reanlysis precipitation with below-freezing temperature at 2400 m / 8000 ft.
Rocky Mountain National Park Annual. 1948 - 2011.
“snow”
“rain”
Sep 28, 1999
Sep 24, 2002
Sep 26, 2000
Sep 30, 2003
Sep 25, 2001
Sep 21, 2004
Sep 27, 2005
Sep 30, 2008
Sep 26, 2006
Sep 29, 2009
Sep 25, 2007
Sep 28, 2010
Sep 25, 2007
Sep 28, 2010
Sep 30, 2008
Sep 27, 2011
Sep 29, 2009
Sep 25, 2012
Lake Powell Storage Through September 27, 2012
Currently 58 % full (capacity 24.17 MAF)
Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005
Lake Powell Elevation Through September 27, 2012
Water level on Sep 27, 2012 was 3621.77 ft, - 78 ft below full.
Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full.
Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.htl
Through August 2012
“El Nino”
“La Nina”
NOAA ESRL (“CDC”), Wolter and Timlin
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures
Updated through 2012 Sep 16-22
2012 Sep 27 = 1115.10 ft
Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) 16-22 September 2012
A Dilemma
The forecasters dilemma: This winter, dynamical models are not unanimous
about California precipitation. 5 mostly dry, 2 mostly wet for Dec-Jan-Feb (maps).
NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble) consensus is dry.
IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble) consensus is neutral.
Approach B.
Participating
Dynamical Models.
CFSv1: US Climate
Forecasting System
version 1
CFSv2: US Climate
Forecasting System
version 2
CMC1: Canadian
Meteorological Center
version 1
CMC2: Canadian
Meteorological Center
version 2
NCAR: US National
Center for
Atmospheric
Research
NASA: US National
Aeronautics and
Space Administration
NMME: National
Multi-Model Ensemble
IMME: International
Multi-Model Ensemble
September 2012.
Precipitation
Official Outlooks
Overlapping Three-Month Intervals
Nov-Dec-Jan
Dec-Jan-Feb
Jan-Feb-Mar
Feb-Mar-Apr
Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of drier than usual
Green
- Higher likelihood of wetter than usual
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Water Year
2010-11
01 Oct 2010
Thru
30 Sep 2011
Water Year
2011-12
01 Oct 2011
Thru
26 Sep 2012
Global Temperature Departures. 365 Days. 2011 Sep 28 - 2012 Sep 26
Cool Season
Temperature
Departure
700 mb (10,000 ft)
01 Oct 2011
Through
31 Mar 2012
Warm Season
Temperature
Departure
700 mb (10,000 ft)
01 Apr 2012
Through
31 Aug 2012
July 2012
Temperature
Departure
700 mb (10,000 ft)
Summer Season
Temperature
Departure
700 mb (10,000 ft)
01 Jun 2012
Through
31 Aug 2012
Sea Ice Extent
27 Sep 2012
Just after record min
27 September 2012
Pole Fire
Three Sisters
2012 Sep 20
Kelly Redmond
KTR 20120930
KTR 20120930
KTR 20120930
KTR 20120930
KTR 20120930
KTR 20120930
KTR 20120930
Mt Stratus Mt Nimbus
Mt Cumulus
Mt Cirrus
KTR 20120930
Thank
You !
20101008