Links Between the Spatial and Temporal
Patterns of Climate:
Implications for Mapping the Future
Christopher Daly
Professor & Director, PRISM Climate Group
Climate PI, HJ Andrews LTER
Department of Geosciences
Oregon State University
Corvallis, Oregon, USA
HJA
Examples of Spatial and Temporal Variations
Working Together
•
NW California coastal / inland temperatures
•
NE Utah plant hardiness
•
HJ Andrews temperatures
Oregon Annual Precipitation
Northwestern California Temperature Regimes
Central California Temperature Maps
1971-2000 Mean July Average Temperature
Correlation of Monthly Mean Temperature
Coastal vs. Interior Stations
Correlation of Monthly Average Temperature
Fort Ross (coastal) vs. Ukiah (Inland)
Time Series of Monthly Average Temperature
Fort Ross (coastal) vs. Ukiah (Inland)
Time Series of Monthly Maximum Temperature
Fort Ross (coastal) vs. Ukiah (Inland)
Time Series of Monthly Minimum Temperature
Fort Ross (coastal) vs. Ukiah (Inland)
Northwestern California Temperature Regimes
Coastal Vs. Inland Grid Correlation
Mean Temperature
Coastal vs. Inland Grid Time Series
July Average Temperature
Notes on NW California Coastal Temps
• Proximity to coastal influences affect:
• Long-term mean summer temperatures
• Inter-annual correlation of coastal/inland summer temperatures
• Long-term trends in summer temperatures
Accurate mapping of the historical means and variations of summer
temperature along the coast must account for coastal proximity, or key
features will be missed
• In the future:
• Will the frequency of onshore flow events increase or decrease?
• Will their inland penetration be greater or lesser (mixing height)?
• Will the zones of coastal influence change?
Information on possible shifts in spatial-temporal relationships is necessary
to map future coastal / inland temperatures in a realistic way
Temperature Inversion
Cold Air Pooling
1971-2000 Mean January Minimum Temperature
• Elevation
• Inversion Height
• Topographic Position
USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map
Northeastern Utah
PH Statistic: Mean annual extreme minimum temperature
• Elevation
• Inversions
• Topographic
Position
New PRISM PHZM
(1976-2005)
Old 1990 PHZM
(1974-1986)
USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map
Northeastern Utah
Standard Deviation
1976-2005
Difference
1991-2005 minus 1976-1990
USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map
Northeastern Utah
Ouray (valley)
High Variability
High Trend
Altamont (slope)
Moderate Variability
Moderate Trend
Lakefork Basin (mtns)
Low Variability
Low Trend
USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map
Northeastern Utah
1984
Major Cold Event
• Strong Inversion
• Valley Site Coldest
• Valley Site Most
Prolonged Cold
USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map
Northeastern Utah
2004
No Major Cold Event
• Weaker Inversion
• Similar Tmin at Sites
• No Coordination of
Coldest Event
Notes on NE Utah Plant Hardiness
• Elevation and topographic position (cold air pools) affect:
• Mean annual extreme minimum temperature (PH statistic)
• Inter-annual variability of the PH statistic
• Long-term trends in the PH statistic
Accurate mapping of the historical means and variations of the PH statistic
must be sensitive to elevation, inversions, and topographic position, or key
features will be missed
• In the future:
• Will the frequency of cold air outbreaks increase or decrease?
• Will cold air outbreaks be of greater or lesser intensity?
Information on possible shifts in spatial-temporal relationships is necessary
to map future PH changes in valleys and adjacent mountains in a realistic
realisti
ealis
ealist
alis
way
HJ Andrews Experimental Forest
1278 m
442 m
Daily Temp Gradient (C/km), VANMET-PRIMET
1995-2000
Tmax
Tmin
Environmental
Lapse Rate
(-6.5C/km)
Anticyclonic
700-mb Flow
Curvature Types
Zonal
• High Pressure
• Clear
• Light Winds
• Low Pressure
• Cloudy
• Strong winds
Cyclonic
HJA VANMET-PRIMET Daily Minimum Temperature Gradient
Vs
700-mb Flow Strength and Curvature
1987-2005
4
Flow
ow Strength
Stren
L = Low
Lo
ow
M = Medium
Mediu
H = High
High
Mean Daily Tmin Gradient (C / km)
3
2
1
0
L
M
H
L
M
H
L
M
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
Anti-cyclonic
Zonal
Cyclonic
H
VANMET May
VANMET Dec
PRIMET May
PRIMET Dec
VAN-PRI May
VAN-PRI Dec
Comparison of December Tmax Anomalies
VANMET-PRIMET Estimated Tmin Difference
Given A-C Increases
VANMET-PRIMET Tmin Difference
(C)
5
VAN-PRI tmin+5A-C
VAN-PRI tmin+10A-C
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Month of Year
Oct
Nov Dec
VANMET-PRIMET Estimated Tmax Difference
Given A-C Increases
5
VAN-PRI tmax+5A-C
VAN-PRI tmax+10A-C
VANMET-PRIMET Tmax
Difference (C)
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Month of Year
Oct Nov Dec
Hypothetical HJA December Tmax Change
+2.5C Regional Change and +10 A-C
Deviation from Average (C*100)
NW Oregon “Conditional” Climatologies
1971-2000 May Minimum Temperature
Anti-cyclonic
Anti-cyclonic
Zonal
Cyclonic
Coast Range
Zonal
Cyclonic
Will. Valley
Cascades
Parting Thoughts
• Physiographic features such as terrain and water bodies can
affect BOTH the spatial and temporal variations of climate
• In mountainous and coastal regions, physiographicallysensitive mapping methods are needed to preserve the
independence of spatial-temporal signatures
Parting Thoughts (Concl.)
• Spatial-temporal relationships are modulated by synoptic
features (e.g., upper-air flow patterns)
• Synoptic features may change in a changing climate
• Estimates of future climates must therefore account for
potential changes in spatial-temporal relationships
• Such changes could represent variations greater than regional
GHG temperature change itself
“Geospatial
Climatology”
The study of the spatial patterns of climate on the
earth’s surface and their relationships with physiographic features
“Geospatial
Climatology”
The study of the spatial and temporal patterns of climate on the
earth’s surface and their relationships with physiographic features