Document 12383692

advertisement
Click to see the opening montage.
1946: ENIAC heralds the dawn of Computing
1950: Turing asks the question….
I propose to consider the question:
“Can machines think?”
--Alan Turing, 1950
1956: A new field is born


We propose that a 2 month, 10
man study of artificial
intelligence be carried out
during the summer of 1956 at
Dartmouth College in Hanover,
New Hampshire.
- Dartmouth AI Project
Proposal; J. McCarthy et al.;
Aug. 31, 1955.
1996: EQP proves that
Robbin’s Algebras are all boolean
----- EQP 0.9, June 1996 ----The job began on eyas09.mcs.anl.gov, Wed Oct 2 12:25:37 1996
UNIT CONFLICT from 17666 and 2 at 678232.20 seconds.
---------------- PROOF ---------------2 (wt=7) [] -(n(x + y) = n(x)).
3 (wt=13) [] n(n(n(x) + y) + n(x + y)) = y.
5 (wt=18) [para(3,3)] n(n(n(x + y) + n(x) + y) + y) = n(x + y).
6 (wt=19) [para(3,3)] n(n(n(n(x) + y) + x + y) + y) = n(n(x) + y).
…….
17666 (wt=33) [para(24,16426),demod([17547])] n(n(n(x) + x) ….
[An Argonne lab program] has come up with a major mathematical
proof that would have been called creative if a human had thought of it.
-New York Times, December, 1996
1997: HAL 9000 becomes operational
in fictional Urbana, Illinois
…by now, every intelligent person knew that
H-A-L is derived from Heuristic ALgorithmic
-Dr. Chandra, 2010: Odyssey Two
1997: Deep Blue ends Human
Supremacy in Chess
vs.
I could feel human-level intelligence across the room
-Gary Kasparov, World Chess Champion (human)
In a few years, even a single victory
in a long series of games would be the triumph of human genius.
1999: Remote Agent takes
Deep Space 1 on a galactic ride
Goals
Scripts
Scripted
Executive
ESL
Mission-level
actions &
resources
Generative
Planner &
Scheduler
Generative
Mode Identification
& Recovery
component models
Monitors
Real-time Execution
Adaptive Control
Hardware
For two days in May, 1999, an AI Program called Remote Agent
autonomously ran Deep Space 1 (some 60,000,000 miles from earth)
2002: Computers start passing
Advanced Placement Tests
… a project funded by
(Microsoft Co-founder) Paul
Allen attempts to design a
“Digital Aristotle”.
Its first results involve
programs that can pass High
School Advanced Placement
Exam in Chemistry…
2005: Cars Drive Themselves

Stanley and three
other cars drive
themselves over
a 132 mile
mountain road
2005: Robots play soccer
(without headbutting!)

2005 Robot Soccer:
Humanoid league
2006: AI Celebrates its Golden Jubilee…
1956: A new field is born


We propose that a 2 month, 10
man study of artificial
intelligence be carried out
during the summer of 1956 at
Dartmouth College in Hanover,
New Hampshire.
- Dartmouth AI Project
Proposal; J. McCarthy et al.;
Aug. 31, 1955.
2007: Robots Drive on Urban Roads

11 cars drove
themselves on
urban streets (for
DARPA Urban
Challenge)
2010: Watson defeats Puny Humans in
Jeopardy!
And Ken Jennings pledges obeisance to the new Computer Overlords..
2014: Robots (instead of them foreigners)
Threaten to Take all your jobs
Winding Our Way
Down To Wall-E:
Adventures in
Artificial Intelligence
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
What is AI
AI’s Successes and Expectations
What is involved in doing AI
Some ongoing projects in my lab
Your questions?
Clicking on the
Graphic takes you
To the right webpage
What if we are writing intelligent
agents that interact with humans?
The COG project
The Robotic care givers
Mechanical flight
became possible
only when people
decided to stop
emulating birds…
Open only for Humans; Droids and Robots should go for CSE 462 next door ;-)
Do we want a machine that beats humans in chess or a machine that thinks like humans
while beating humans in chess?
DeepBlue supposedly DOESN’T think like humans..
(But what if the machine is trying to “tutor” humans about how to do things?)
(Bi-directional flow between thinking humanly and thinking rationally)
Useful for tutoring systems
(a form of teaming)
Useful for teaming with humans
Default Position
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
What is AI
AI’s Successes and Expectations
What is involved in doing AI
Some ongoing projects in my lab
Your questions?
What AI can do is as important as
what it can’t yet do..
• Captcha project
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
What is AI
AI’s Successes and Expectations
What is involved in doing AI
Some ongoing projects in my lab
Your questions?
What Makes Agent Design Hard?
Environment
What action next?
A: A Unified Brand-name-Free Introduction to Planning
Subbarao Kambhampati
(Static vs. Dynamic)
Environment
(perfect vs.
Imperfect)
(Full vs.
Partial satisfaction)
Goals
(Observable vs.
Partially Observable)
(Instantaneous vs.
Durative)
(Deterministic vs.
Stochastic)
What action next?
A: A Unified Brand-name-Free Introduction to Planning
Subbarao Kambhampati
Architectures for Intelligent Agents
Wherein we discuss why do we need representation, reasoning and learning
(Model-based reflex agents)
How do we write agent programs for these?
This one already assumes that the “sensorsfeatures” mapping has been done!
(aka Model-based Reflex Agents)
EXPLICIT MODELS OF THE ENVIRONMENT
--Blackbox models
--Factored models
Logical models
Probabilistic models
State Estimation
Planning
It is not always obvious what action to do now given a set of goals
You woke up in the morning. You want to attend a class. What should your action be?
 Search (Find a path from the current state to goal state; execute the first op)
Planning (does the same for structured—non-blackbox state models)
Representation Mechanisms:
Logic (propositional; first order)
Probabilistic logic
Learning
the models
How the course topics stack up…
Search
Blind, Informed
Planning
Inference
Logical resolution
Bayesian inference
Learning
Dimensions:
What can be learned?
--Any of the boxes representing
the agent’s knowledge
--action description, effect probabilities,
causal relations in the world (and the
probabilities of causation), utility models
(sort of through credit assignment), sensor
data interpretation models
What feedback is available?
--Supervised, unsupervised,
“reinforcement” learning
--Credit assignment problem
What prior knowledge is available?
-- “Tabularasa” (agent’s head is a blank
slate) or pre-existing knowledge
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
What is AI
AI’s Successes and Expectations
What is involved in doing AI
Some ongoing projects in my lab
Your questions?
 Planning for Human-Robot Teaming
 Crowd-sourced planning
 Event-analytics
Human-Robot Teaming
Click for youtube version
Search and report (rescue)
Goals incoming on the go
World is evolving
Model is changing
Click for youtube version
Infer instructions from
Natural Language
Determine goal formulation
through clarifications and
questions
59
Teach Me How To Work:
Natural Language Model Updates
Undergraduate
Student Summer
Project
Crowd-Sourced Planning
manhattan_gettingto
Yochan lab, Arizona State University
A sub-system of RADAR
AI-MIX: Crowd Sourced Planning
 AI-MIX (Automated Improvement of Mixed Initiative
eXperiences)
Goal & event
generation
Commanders
62
A sub-system of RADAR
AI-MIX: Crowd Sourced Planning
Interpretation
 Force Structure (PDDL)
•
Reduces flexibility
 Extract Structure
•
Plans from textual descriptions rather than actions
Steering (Model-lite)
 Constraint Checking
•
Quantitative constraints
 Constructive Critiques
•
Actively help creation and refinement of a plan:
suggesting new plan fragments, new ways of
decomposing the current plan or set of goals
Winner of the "People's Choice Award" for the best demo at
ICAPS 2014!
63
Since the dawn of civilization, people congregated
in town squares to discuss events
The emergence of social media has now created a sprawling virtual town square,
whose scope is vast, and whose chatter can be captured!
opening exciting possibilities for analyzing what people are actually saying..
What’s the relation between
event and tweets?
Which part of the event did a
tweet refer to?
Specific
Specific
Specific
General
Specific
General
Specific
General
General
ET-LDA
[AAAI’12, ICWSM’12, MMW’12]
Event
Tweets
Determine which
segment a tweet (word)
refers to
S(t) ~ Categorical(γ)
Determine tweet type
C(t)~Bernoulli(λ)
Determine word’s
topic in event
Zs~multinomial(θ)
Tweets word’s topic
Zt~multinomial(ψ) or
Zt~multinomial(θ)
Event-tweets alignment
Frequency of specific tweets
Evolution of specific tweets
ET-LDA
[AAAI’12, ICWSM’12, MMW’12]
Specific
Specific
Specific
General
Specific
General
Specific
General
General
SocSent
[IJCAI’13]
Eventics, automated toolbox to conduct
in-depth analysis of 3 core tasks in
event analytics
ET-LDA & SocSent for Event sensemaking
DeMA for Event recognition
Alice for Event engagement prediction
Our toolbox enables a richer
perspective about
How people respond to events on Twitter
What factors affect crowd’s engagement in events
Summary & Additional
Resources
• Talked about
–
–
–
–
–
What AI is
AI’s Successes and Expectations
What is involved in doing AI
Some ongoing projects in my lab
Your questions?
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
What is AI
AI’s Successes and Expectations
What is involved in doing AI
Some ongoing projects in my lab
Your questions?
Questions Submitted
•
What policy, if any, has been created surrounding this new and developing
technology? Is there any work being done to use AI to improve human
cognition and performance?
•
What are ways of combating the existential risks that are put forth by the
development of AI?
•
Do you believe that there will ever be functioning domestic humanoid robots
for retail for the general population? (Not just Roombas, bur actual human
looking and functioning bots, or would there too much of an ethical debate on
if it is human?)
•
Could we give AI the feeling of curiosity, leading them to have desires for
physical things?
• Yes!
– But this is not going to
be just a question of
hardware
– The robots need to
track the
beliefs/desires/intentio
ns of the humans
• ..and thus our work on
Human-Robot teaming..
• Feeling of Curiosity—
– Yes
– Exploration/Exploitatio
n tradeoff in
Reinforcement
Learning
• Desires for physical
things..
– Hmm..
Questions Submitted
•
What policy, if any, has been created surrounding this new and developing
technology? Is there any work being done to use AI to improve human
cognition and performance?
•
What are ways of combating the existential risks that are put forth by the
development of AI?
•
Do you believe that there will ever be functioning domestic humanoid robots
for retail for the general population? (Not just Roombas, bur actual human
looking and functioning bots, or would there too much of an ethical debate on
if it is human?)
•
Could we give AI the feeling of curiosity, leading them to have desires for
physical things?
Summary & Additional
Resources
• Talked about
–
–
–
–
–
What AI is
AI’s Successes and Expectations
What is involved in doing AI
Some ongoing projects in my lab
Your questions?
Download