Show and Tell: Communicating Climate Change
through Shared Learning
Stewart J. Cohen
Environment Canada and University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, British Columbia, CANADA
Presented at SFU--CCIRC April 14, 2009
Climate change information flow to
stakeholders?
Climate Information
•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios
ou
tr e
ac
h
Stakeholder Interest
•Regional development
•Jobs
•Liability
•Quality of life
Climate Change: The Medium is the Message
Filter / medium
Climate information
•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios
delivery
•Hydrograph
•Crop model
•Malaria risk model
•Decision support
tool
Practitioner interest
translation
•Risk assessment
•Design standards
•Operating rules
•Allocations
……translation from climate science to practitioner interest
Climate change adaptation: linking
research and practice??
• Choreography matters
– A forward-looking first step
• Context matters
– Importance of extension
agents
• Flexibility in choices of tools
– Mix of quantitative and
qualitative approaches
– Explicit insertion of climate
change information into
assessment of alternative
response measures
– An opportunity for team
building, visualization and
group-based modelling
Example of Visualization:
Snowpack/Mountain Recreation
• Less precipitation falls
as snow
• Reduced spring
snowpack
• Shorter snow season
• Earlier snowmelt
Visualizations by Sheppard
et al., UBC-CALP;
Snow scenario generated
by EC-PYR
April 1st snowline elevation (m)
Average April 1st Snowline
1600
Canadian General Circulation Model 2: A2 scenario
1200
800
400
0
1960
2000
2020
2050
Year
2100
Current
Mean
April
1st Snowline
2050s
2100 World
Tier
11(A2)
(A2)
Mean
Mean
April
April1st
1stSnowline
Snowline(789m)
(920m)
(1074m)
2020s
(759m)
Capilano Reservoir Water Storage
Peak
Current
summer
conditions:
drawdown:
Average
Lower
summer
lake
Current conditions:
spring
level
drawdown
(439 Maximum
ft.),
(elevation
more frequent
517
ft.)
lake level (elevation 570 ft.)
Building the science-policy bridge…
• Dialogue with local
•
experts/practitioners as
part of climate change
adaptation assessment;
beyond serving as an
information source and
outreach process
Experts become
extension agents for local
adaptation
Okanagan climate change study team visit
to Penticton Dam, June 2002
Example of group-based modelling:
Okanagan Basin water management &
climate change study
•Semi-arid
•Area = 8200 km2
•Irrigated
agriculture
•Population:
2001 = 300,000
2006 = 340,000
Photos: upper left—Osoyoos and Osoyoos Lake (Denise
Neilsen); right—irrigated agriculture, Summerland (Denise
Neilsen); lower left--installation of intake at Penticton,
Okanagan Lake (Bob Hrasko)
Supply depends on
• upland reservoirs
• mainstem lakes
• ground water
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stewart Cohen (P.I.) – Adaptation & Impacts
Research Division-EC, Institute for Resources
Environment & Sustainability-UBC, Vancouver
Denise Neilsen (P.I.2002-04), Scott Smith (P.I.
2002-04), Grace Frank, Walter Koch – Pacific
Agricultural Research Centre-AAFC, Summerland
Younes Alila, Wendy Merritt* – Forest
Resources Management, UBC (*now at Australian
National University)
Mark Barton, Roger McNeill, Bill Taylor, Dave
Hutchinson, Wendy Avis – Pacific & Yukon
Region-EC
Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, James Tansey,
Jeff Carmichael, Stacy Langsdale, Rachel
Welbourn, Natasha Schorb, Jennifer Ardiel,
Glen Hearns, Alex Russell, Aviva Savelson,
Sharon Bennett, Charlie Wilson – IRES &
SCARP, UBC
Brian Symonds, B.C. MOE, Penticton
Bob Hrasko, Agua Consulting, Kelowna.
Barbara Lence, Civil Engineering, UBC
Craig Forster, U. Utah
Allyson Beall, Washington State University
Okanagan Study Teams (1999-2007)
Study team (2002-04) & invited
guests at team meeting,
Summerland, June 2002
Thanks to Andrew Reeder, RDOS (formerly City of Summerland); Toby Pike, Water Supply
Association; Greg Armour, OBWB; Patrick Deakin, Town of Oliver; Phil Epp, BC MOE; Jillian
Tamblyn, Okanagan Nations Alliance; Leah Hartley, RDCO; Peter Waterman, BC Fruit Growers
Assoc. & City of Summerland; & many others.
Supported by grants from the CCAF/CCIAP (#A206, A463/433, A846), Natural Resources Canada,
Ottawa.
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1-Jan
1-Mar
1-May
1-Jul
s20ca2
1-Sep
s50ca2
1-Nov
5
4
3
2
1
0
1-Jan
1-Mar
1-May
base90
1-Jul
s20sa2
1-Sep
s50sa2
5
4
3
2
1
0
1-Jan
3
2
1
0
1-Jan
Simulated Discharge (cumecs)
1-Mar
1-May
base90
1-Jul
s20ha2
1-Sep
s50ha2
1-Nov
s80ha2
1-May
1-Jul
s20sb2
1-Sep
s50sb2
1-Nov
s80sb2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY B2
7
0
1-Jan
1-Mar
base90
7
1
s80cb2
4
8
2
s50cb2
1-Nov
5
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY A2
3
s20cb2
1-Sep
6
8
4
1-Jul
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO B2
s80sa2
5
1-May
7
1-Nov
6
1-Mar
base90
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO A2
6
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 B2
6
s80ca2
Simulated Discharge (cumecs)
Simulated Discharge (cumecs)
7
7
Simulated Discharge (cumecs)
Simulated Discharge (cumecs)
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2
base90
Simulated Discharge (cumecs)
Streamflow Scenarios for Vaseux Creek (Merr
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1-Jan
1-Mar
1-May
base90
1-Jul
s20hb2
1-Sep
s50hb2
1-Nov
s80hb2
Risks associated with water supply and demand in response to climate
change (Neilsen et al., 2004, 2006)
Maximum allowable demand –
2002 use
Trout Creek supply/demand CGCM2-B2
2020s
10
2050s
Crop water demand (m
2080s
8
6
4
2
0
0
50
100
150
3
200
6
x 10 )
12
14
Historic
12
2020s
10
2050s
3
Historic
Crop water demand (m
14
3
6
x 10 )
Trout Creek supply/demand HadCM3-A2
250
6
Annual flow (m x 10 )
Local defined drought – 30% average
annual flow
2080s
8
6
4
2
0
0
50
100
150
3
200
6
Annual flow (m x 10 )
250
Impact on Okanagan Water Management
• Incorporation of climate change into Trepanier Landscape Unit Water
Management Plan
–
Recommends demand management as first priority, along with supply
augmentation, by 2050 if no climate change assumed, and by 2020 if climate
change is assumed
Okanagan Study
Highlighted in
IPCC 4AR
Moving Beyond The Damage Report
an opportunity for participatory integrated assessment (PIA) & decision support….
+
Technical
Info &
Data
=
Experience
Based
Knowledge &
Values
Decision
Support
Model
Preliminary sketch of decision model—OSWRM
(Langsdale et al., 2006, 2007)
Okanagan
Surfacewater Supply
Evaporating
Tributaries Inflowing
Human Use
Diverting
Precipitating on Lakes
Agricultural Demand
Flowing Out of Basin
Residential Demand
U.S. Border
C & I Demand
Input from some participants at Okanagan study model building workshop, April 2005
(Cohen & Neale, 2007)
Upland agriculture
supply /
demand
balance, high
population
growth;
2 = 1961-1990
base case;
3 = 2040-2069 :
HadCM3-A2
NOTE: Supply Demand Balance = (supply – demand) / demand
2040-2069 :
Upland
agriculture
supply /
demand
balance, high
population
growth;
• = HadCM3-A2
• = HadCM3-A2
with unlimited
supplemental
use of
Okanagan
Lake
NOTE: Assumes withdrawals from lake is unlimited
2040-2069 :
Okanagan Lake
stage, high
population
growth,
unlimited
supplement with
Okanagan Lake,
no DSM, max
agr.-res.
allocations, min
conservation
flows
•
= no climate
change
•
= HadCM3-A2
•
= CGCM2-B2
•
= CSIROMk2-B2
NOTE: Assumes withdrawals not limited by shortages otherwise apparent when relying on tributaries
2040-2069 : Upland
agriculture
supply / demand
balance, high
population
growth;
•
= 1961-1990
base case;
•
= HadCM3-A2
•
= HadCM3-A2
with DSM and
densification
•
= HadCM3-A2
with DSM and
Okanagan Lake
•
= Hadley A2 with
unlimited use of
Okanagan Lake
only
2040-2069 :
Okanagan Lake
stage, high
population
growth;
•
= 1961-1990
base case;
•
= HadCM3-A2
•
= HadCM3-A2
with DSM
(includes
densification)
•
= HadCM3-A2
with DSM and
Okanagan Lake
•
= HadCM3-A2
with Okanagan
Lake only
Okanagan Study Highlighted in Okanagan
Sustainable Water Strategy
• Sustainable water strategy
•
•
•
prepared for the Okanagan
Basin Water Board
[www.obwb.ca]
planning for population growth,
economic development,
ecosystem needs, and climate
change
Broad portfolio, including DSM
and direct withdrawal from
mainstem lakes
Architects of this strategy
included local practitioners and
decision makers who were
participants in Okanagan
climate change study
6
14
Historic
12
2020s
10
2050s
3
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1-Jan
Trout Creek supply/demand HadCM3-A2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2
Crop water demand (m x 10 )
Simulated Discharge (cumecs)
7
1-Mar
1-May
1-Jul
1-Sep
1-Nov
2080s
8
6
4
2
0
0
50
100
150
3
base90
s20ca2
s50ca2
s80ca2
200
250
6
Annual flow (m x 10 )
From Trout Creek to the OSWS, 1999-2008
Participatory approach…link with practitioners
(Cohen and Waddell, in press)
Climate Information
•Forecasts
•Trends
deli
v
h
io
n
ac
h
ac
ns
l at
ou
tre
Filter / Medium
•Hydrograph
•Crop Model
•Malaria Risk Model
•Decision Support
Tool
er y
tr a
•Scenarios
ou
tr e
Practitioner Interest
•Risk Assessment
extension
•Jobs
•Design Standards
•Allocations
Stakeholder Interest
•Regional development
policy
•Liability
•Quality of life
Conclusion
• Opportunity for shared learning,
•
•
exploring potential application of new
kinds of tools, such as decision
models and visualization
Model building process can include
dialogue with local knowledge holders
(practitioners)
Shared learning can lead to capacity
building within local communities of
practice
For more information…
• scohen@forestry.ubc.ca; stewart.cohen@ec.gc.ca
• http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/aird