Outlook for Irish and EU
Beef / Cattle Supplies
Joe Burke
January 2014
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009
Supply Review and Outlook
• Irish Cattle Availability
• EU Beef Production
• Price Situation
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
ROI weekly finished cattle supplies (head)
40,000
Head / Week
35,000
30,000
25,000
2012
20,000
15,000
10,000
7% Increase in 2013 Cattle Supplies
5,000
0
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2013
Trends in National Cattle Herd By Age, November 1st 2013
(Change in head on 2012)
100,000
Males
+80,227
80,000
Females
60,000
+41,448
40,000
+24,323
+13,279
20,000
+23,307 +24,938
+10,455
0
-15,102 -11,848
-20,000
-40,000
-39,007 -33,623 -37,479
-60,000
0-6
06-12
Age (Months)
12-18
18-24
2013 Calf Registrations -2.5% / -53,000
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24-30
30-36
Live Exports +31% / +49,000
Total Calf Registrations
Ireland 2003 - 2013(E)
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
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decline
2013:
-2.5%
Calf Registrations to Dairy Cows
Ireland 2003 - 2013(E)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
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increase
2013:
+2.5%
Calf Registrations to Suckler Cows
Ireland 2003 - 2013(E)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
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decrease
2013:
-8.0%
Live Cattle Exports by Category, 2010 - 2013
350,000
300,000
250,000
Finished Cattle
200,000
Weanlings/Stores
150,000
100,000
Calves
50,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
• Calf exports 137% higher, at 90,658 hd
• Weanlings & stores up 3%, to 70,430 hd
• Finished cattle 9.5% lower, at 48,393 hd
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Cattle Supply Forecast 2014
•
Analysis of AIM database
•
Calf registrations increased by
115,000 head in 2012 vs. 2011.
•
Exports of calves & weanlings declined
by 60,000 head in 2012 vs. 2011.
•
Actual supply pattern to be dictated by:
live exports, producer decisions,
culling rates, swing back to steers etc.
2014 Throughput likely to rise by ~ 100,000 head
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Cattle Supply Forecast (000’ head)
2012
2013
2014 (F)
Steers
466
527
590 - 620
Y Bulls
207
185
160 - 175
Heifers
352
374
390 - 410
Cows
330
367
370 - 390
Other
40
38
36 - 40
Total
1,396
1,491
1,570 – 1,610
Likely range: 80-120,000 extra finished cattle available
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU beef production trend 2012 - 2014
EU beef production declined by 2.2% in 2013.
A recovery in production of 1.1% is forecast for 2014
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
+2%
+0.8%
N/C.
+2.6%
2012
+1.0%
+7%
+3%
-1%
2013(e)
2014(f)
Source: EU working beef forecasting group
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Performance of Irish Cattle Price
R3 steers c/kg excl VAT
400
2012: €3.86/kg
300
2013: €4.07/kg
2011: €3.44/kg
2010: €2.91/kg
200
100
0
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep
10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13
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Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Europe & UK
(c/kg excl VAT)
UK R3 Steers
450
Ireland R3 Steers
400
EU R3 Prime Males
350
300
250
(w/e 28/12) Irish Price €3.89/kg, EU-15 Av. €3.85/kg; UK €4.56/kg
In Italy, R-grade young bull price: €4.22/kg, Spain: €3.92, France: €3.91, Germany €3.80
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Summary
• Irish factory throughput recovering
• Longer term supplies uncertain,
especially suckler progeny
• EU Beef Production to increase
(but only by 1.1%)
• Irish prices rose strongly up to mid
year, before falling to EU-15 average
• EU beef prices are starting 2014
below this time last year (excl. UK)
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture