Prise en compte des incertitudes de prévision par les
services opérationnels de prévision de crue
L. Berthet (DREAL)
French public Flood Forecasting Centers (FFC) are in charge of the vigilance service: they deliver
a simple message about the level of vigilance which is required on 22.000 km of our rivers at
least twice a day. This information can be found on the Internet (http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr)
along with water level and discharge observations. In the near future, this service will be
enriched with inundation mapping, flash flood alerts and quantitative forecasting. Issuing
quantitative forecasts emphasizes the need of uncertainty assessment and communication.
Therefore French FFC recently tested different assessment methods in an operational context.
Two of them were selected to start with: subjective forecaster assessment of a few quantiles
and a post-processing approach. Nevertheless, FFC are interested in the current and future
research in order to improve this assessment.