1
Siamak Khaledi
Hari Mann
James Perkovich
Samar Zayed
Sponsor:
Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems
Importance of Maritime Travel
 90% of global commerce is conducted by sea
 Inland waterways link coastal cities to the open
ocean
 Heavy commercial and military traffic
 The mission of the Navy is to maintain, train and
equip combat-ready naval forces capable of
winning wars, deterring aggression and
maintaining freedom of the seas.
 Underwater mines severely hinder the progress
of naval fleet
2
(Wired)
Underwater Mines
 Types
• Sea floor/Bottom
• Floating/Surface
• Moored, etc.
 Sensing Techniques
•
•
•
•
Contact
Acoustic
Pressure
Magnetic, etc.
(21st Century U.S. Navy Mine Warfare)
 Damage
• Warheads can weigh between
100 and 700+ kg
• 1991: USS Tripoli struck a
contact mine
3
(NOAA)
Current Detection Process
 Current System
• Manned Helicopter
• Towing sonar
 Sonar Operation Procedure
• Sends out sound waves
• Receives sound wave echoes
• Towed through the water
4
Active Sonar Equation


All terms in dB
Detection if SE ≥ 0
𝑳𝒔 : Source level radiated by and measured at sonar
𝑵𝒘 : Propagation loss en route to receiver
𝑻𝑺 : Target strength (measure of sound reflected by target)
𝑳𝑵 : Sonar self-noise
𝑨𝑮 : Array gain (how much noise the array cuts out)
𝑫𝑻 : Detection threshold (Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) required for detection)
5
𝑺𝑬 : Signal excess (Processed SNR)
Stakeholder Interactions
Concern over environmental impact
Beneficiaries
Concern over new procedures
2. Need for action
System Customers
1. Mine laying
3. Need for system
Minelayers
Designers &
Manufacturers
System Operators
5. Countermeasure
SYSTEM
Environmental impact
New procedures
Cost
Environmental
Groups
4. Create system
Servicemen
Taxpayers
Concern over value of investment
Primary
Intended interaction
Secondary
6
Tertiary
Indirect impact
Response to impact
Problem / Need
Problem:
Mines are a very effective method of blocking shipping lanes, restricting Naval
operations.
The placing of mines in waterways can have severe negative economic and
environmental impact.
Time required to clear a mine field can be up to 200 times the time required to
place the minefield.
Cost to lay a minefield can be as low as 0.5% of the cost required to clear a
minefield.
Need:
There is a need for the U.S. Navy to improve the effectiveness of mine
clearance systems.
•Reduce operational cost
•Increase the rate of detection and neutralization of underwater mines
•Remove safety risk of personnel
7
Mission Requirements
System Requirements
Cost Requirements
•
Fuel cost to search 1 square
mile shall be less than $62.15
System shall require fewer
than 5 people to operate
Vehicle acquisition cost shall
be minimized
Sonar acquisition cost shall be
minimized
•
•
•
Performance Requirements
•
•
•
•
•
8
Sonar shall be able to search a •
width of 300 meters
System shall have endurance
greater than 2 hours
•
Vehicle shall accelerate to a
velocity of 12 knots
System shall be transportable
on current Navy ships
Probability of false detection
shall be less than 0.5%
Safety Requirements
System operators shall be
protected from mine
explosions
Environmental impact shall
be minimized
Design Alternatives: Sonar
9
Small
Large
Example: Klein/L-3 5900
Example: Raytheon AN/AQS-20A
Speed: up to 12 knots
Weight: 360 lbs.
Length: 7.75 ft.
Diameter: 8 in
Speed: 10 to 12 knots
Weight: 975 lbs.
Length: 10.5 ft.
Diameter: 15.5 in
~$1M
~$11.83M
Design Alternatives: Vehicle
Air
Surface
Submersible
Small
Large
Small
Large
Ex: K-Max
Ex: Fire Scout
Ex: Hammerhead
Ex: Fleet Class
CUSV
(Lockheed Martin)
(Northrop Grumman)
(Meggitt Training
Systems)
(AAI/Textron)
Ex: RMMV
(Lockheed Martin)
Weight: 5,145 lbs.
Weight: 6,000 lbs.
Weight: 1,984 lbs.
Weight: 22,000 lbs.
Length: 23 ft.
Lift capacity: 6,000
lbs.
Lift capacity: 2,650
lbs.
Length: 17 ft.
Length: 39 ft.
Diameter: 4ft.
Beam: 4.7 ft.
Beam: 10.25 ft.
Weight: 14,500 lbs.
Endurance: 8 hours at
20 knots
Draft: 2 ft., 2 in.
Speed: >16 knots
Range: 1,200 NM
Operating Depth: 10200 ft.
Flight endurance: 23 hours
Flight endurance: 5-8
hours
~$5.1M
~$18.4M
~$100K
10
~$12M
Simulation Objectives/Assumptions
Objectives
Predict cost of mine detection
operations
Assumptions
Pre-determined area
Moored mines only
Predict system performance
Overt operation
Detection only (no
neutralization)
Urgent clearance
Sea state 0
11
Model Inputs/Outputs
12
Submersible Alternative
buoyancy
drag
F Propulsion
𝜃
tow
mg
(drag due to water resistance)
13
Surface Alternative
buoyancy
F Propulsion
drag
𝜃
mg
(drag due to air and water resistance)
14
tow
Airborne Alternative
lift
F Propulsion
𝜃
drag
tow
mg
(drag due to air resistance)
*
15
*Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, J. Leishman
Drag Equation Data
Component
Sonar
Drag Coefficient (C)
Large
0.295 [37]
4.08[20]
wetted
Small
0.295 [37]
1.52[32]
wetted
0.04 [36]
58.37 [28]
wetted
Small (Air portion)
0.7 [37]
1.68 [33]
frontal
Small (Water portion)
0.12 [37]
14.04 [33]
wetted
Large (Air portion)
0.7 [37]
5.71 [26]
frontal
Large (Water portion)
0.12 [37]
34.25 [26]
wetted
Small
1.35[31]
15.58 [35]
frontal
Large
1.35[31]
4.77 [30]
frontal
Underwater Vehicle
Surface Vehicle
Air Vehicle
16
Area (m2)
Alternative
Density of water: 1027 kg/m3
Density of air: 1.225 kg/m3
Energy to Cost Calculation
Cost per Volume
Energy Density
.
Energy Density :
• Diesel = 128,450 BTU/gal.[38]
• Gasoline = 116,090 BTU/gal.[38]
• Jet Fuel = 125,217 BTU/gal.[8]
17
Fuel Price:
$3.873/gal.[15]
$3.296/gal.[15]
$2.966/gal.[16]
Processed SNR
𝑳𝒔 − 𝟐𝑵𝒘 + 𝑻𝑺 − 𝑳𝑵 − 𝑨𝑮
Parameter


18
− 𝑫𝑻 = 𝑺𝑬
Description
Large sonar (dB)
Small sonar (dB)
Source Level
212
197
Propagation Loss
Normal(70,12)
Normal(70,12)
Target Strength
15
15
Noise Level
Normal(58,12)
Normal(58,12)
Array Gain
15
13.6
Detection Threshold
14
14
Naval Operations Analysis (Wagner et al)
Gaussian distribution
Case Study: Inland Waterway
(Google Maps)

Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay

3rd and 4th largest ports on
East Coast
• Hampton Roads
• Baltimore

Homeports to 69 Navy ships
• 2 spans of tunnel
• Each 1 mile wide
19
(NOAA Nautical Chart 12222)
Design of Experiment
Inputs
Sonar
Vehicle
1
Airborne
Large
Surface
Alternatives
4
5
Small
Large
Small
Airborne
7
9
Large
Submersible
6
8
Energy Time P(Detection)
Small
2
3
Output
Small
Surface
Large
Small
Large
10
Submersible
11
Baseline: Seahawk helicopter with Raytheon
sonar
20
Fuel Burn Results

Sonar
1 square mile travel
Vehicle
Avg Gallons
of Fuel
Avg Fuel Cost
Rank
4.457
$13.22
4
6.168
$18.30
8
5.021
$16.55
7
9.210
$30.36
10
3.617
$14.01
5
3.242
$9.62
2
Large
4.958
$14.71
6
Small
3.672
$12.10
3
7.887
$26.00
9
2.458
$9.52
1
21.032
$62.38
11
Small
Large
Large
Vehicle Type
Air
Small
Large
Surface
Underwater
Small
Small
Air
Surface
Large
Underwater
Baseline: Seahawk helicopter with Raytheon sonar
21



Small sonar dominant using all vehicles
Underwater option consumes least amount of fuel
Small sonar/Underwater vehicle has the best fuel economy
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

𝝁𝑺𝑬 = 30

𝝁𝑺𝑬 = 𝟏𝟑
10,000 replications
•
•
95% Confidence Interval
1% half width
𝒛𝜶/𝟐
22
Small Sonar
69% SE≥ 𝟎
Signal Excess (dB)

Large Sonar
87% SE≥ 𝟎
-150
-140
-130
-120
-110
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Number of Occurances
Processed SNR
𝒑(𝟏 − 𝒑)
𝒏−𝟏
𝒛.𝟎𝟐𝟓
.𝟖𝟕𝟏 (.𝟏𝟐𝟗)
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎−𝟏
= .66% < 1%
𝒛.𝟎𝟐𝟓
.𝟔𝟖𝟗 (.𝟑𝟏𝟏)
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎−𝟏
= .91% < 1%
P(Detection) Results


P(False Alarm) = 0.5%
𝜇𝑆𝐸 (Small) = 13, 𝜇𝑆𝐸 (Large) = 30
P(Detection) = 0.82
Large sonar:
Probability of False Alarm, percent
Probability of False Alarm, percent
(Principles of Underwater Sound, R.J. Urick)
23
P(Detection) = 0.998
Probability of Detection, percent
Probability of Detection, percent
Small sonar:
Value Hierarchy
Utility
Process Time
.56
24
P(Detection)
.28
Safety
.11
Fuel Burn
.05
Life Cycle Cost
 Life Cycle Cost
• Acquisition
• Operational cost
• Staffing requirements
 Assumptions
• 1 Mine detection operation every 2 weeks for 20 years
• 5 square mile operation
 Staffing requirements
• SH-60S Seahawk – 2 pilots, 2 air crew
• Unmanned vehicles – 1 person
• Sonar – 1 person
25
Utility vs. Cost Analysis
Utility
0.5
Small Sonar, Small Boat
0.45
0.4
Small Sonar, Small Helicopter
0.35
Small Sonar, Large Helicopter
0.3
Small Sonar, Underwater Vehicle
0.25
Large Sonar, Small Boat
0.2
Large Sonar, Small Helicopter
0.15
Large Sonar, Large Helicopter
0.1
Large Sonar, Underwater Vehicle
0.05
Current System
0
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
Cost ($ million)
 The Small sonar offers a cheaper alternative but the utility of the
Large sonar is higher.
• Small sonar, Small boat: Utility = .158, Cost = $3.5M
• Large sonar, Small boat: Utility = .433, Cost = $14.4M
• Marginal cost of utility: $3,942,389 / .1 units of utility
26
Additional Alternatives
•Improved P(D)
•Same Process Time
•2x Fuel Burn
•Same P(D)
•½ Process Time
•Same Fuel Burn
•Improved P(D)
•½ Process Time
•2x Fuel Burn
Improved P(D):
New P(D) = P(D) + [(1-P(D))*P(D)] = 0.82 + [(1-0.82)*0.82] = 0.968
27
Utility vs. Cost Analysis (2)
Utility
1
0.9
0.8
Small Sonar, Small Boat
0.7
Large Sonar, Small Boat
0.6
0.5
Current System
0.4
2x (Time Emphasis)
0.3
2x (Detection Emphasis)
0.2
4x
0.1
0
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
Cost ($ million)
 2x Small sonar, Small boat (Time emphasis):
• Utility = .718, Cost = $7.03M
 2x Small sonar, Small boat (Detection emphasis):
• Utility = .378, Cost = $7.06M
 4x Small sonar, Small boat:
28
• Utility = .938, Cost = $14.06
Sensitivity Analysis
Utility
Process Time
.56
29
P(Detection)
.28
Safety
.11
Fuel Burn
.05
Recommendations
Utility
Improvement
over current
system
Cost
Savings over
current
system
2x
Small sonar,
Small boat
(time
emphasis)
.718
156%
$7.03M
$39.76M
4x
Small sonar,
Small boat
.938
235%
$14.06M
$32.73M
Alternative
30
Questions
31
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
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