M. King Hubbert
1903-1989
“Our ignorance is not so
vast as our failure to use
what we know”
2004
U = 1800
BBO
Other Estimates:
Craig Hatfield (1997):
Peak = 2013; U = 2450
BBO
John Edwards (1997):
Peak = 2020; U = 2900
BBO
Campbell and Laherrere (1998)
•  Most estimates ~ 2000
BBO
•  USGS 2000 is most
recent and exhaustive
estimate - world ultimate
mean estimate of ~ 3000
BBO
•  Considered optimistic
by many
•  large estimate of
undiscovered oil esp. in
FSU and middle east.
DOE/EIA Website, 2000
•  calculates reserve
growth for world based
on experience in U.S.
•  Uncertainty in proven
reserves.
•  Suspicious jump in reserves
by six OPEC members added
300 billion barrels of oil to
official reserve tallies.
•  Yet this trend was not
accompanied by any major
discovery of new fields.
• The market has NOT found more oil
“Hubbert’s pimple”
Trillion kwh per year
1977 Internal Estimate : 12.5-15 Gb
Reported : 9 Gb
Technology added nothing
1989
1977
R. Hersh