Hunting and
Gathering
C
O
S
T
S
0
2
4
6
8
10
DISTANCE
12
Left
behind
in an
energy
race?
Agriculture
Herding
Agriculture
•  0.1% of production to 90% of production
( >7 Mt of corn/Ha)
•  10 to 100x more people per unit land
(EROI)
•  Energy Surplus!
•  Today 40-60% of energy from
photosynthesis of planet earth goes
directly or indirectly to Humans! (Peter
Vitousek and others)
Military
Religion
Population Growth
Fossil Fuels
Oil History
•  1st oil well (Drake in Penn.)
•  Oklahoma and Texas
Black
GoldTexas
Tea!
GNP
increases
w/ energy
use
The energy
cost of
getting
the next
barrel is
going
way up
America’s greatest scientist??
M. King Hubbert
1903-1989
“Our ignorance is not so
vast as our failure to use
what we know”
Neo-Hubbertarians
2004
U = 1800
BBO
Other Estimates:
Craig Hatfield (1997):
Peak = 2013; U = 2450
BBO
John Edwards (1997):
Peak = 2020; U = 2900
BBO
Campbell and Laherrere (1998)
Estimates of Global Ultimate Oil
•  Most estimates ~ 2000
BBO
•  USGS 2000 is most
recent and exhaustive
estimate - world ultimate
mean estimate of ~ 3000
BBO
•  Considered optimistic
by many
•  large estimate of
undiscovered oil esp. in
FSU and middle east.
DOE/EIA Website, 2000
•  calculates reserve
growth for world based
on experience in U.S.
Factors that will constrain the forecasts
(We will probably be wrong !!)
•  Uncertainty in proven
reserves.
•  Suspicious jump in reserves
by six OPEC members added
300 billion barrels of oil to
official reserve tallies.
•  Yet this trend was not
accompanied by any major
discovery of new fields.
• The market has NOT found more oil
THE GROWING GAP
Regular Oil
60
Past Discovery
50
Future Discovery
Gb/a
40
Production
30
Past discovery based
on ExxonMobil (2002).
Revisions backdated
20
10
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation
(after Hubbert, 1969)
Trillion kwh per year
300
200
100
-5
Stonehenge
Built
-4
-3
-2
-1
Steam
Engine
+1
0
Mayan
culture
Parthenon
completed
Pyramids
Iron in
constructed Black
Middle
Death
East
Inquisition
2
+3
+4
+5
“Hubbert’s pimple”
Magellan's
Circumnavigation
1977 Internal Estimate : 12.5-15 Gb
Reported : 9 Gb
Technology added nothing
Prudhoe Bay
700
Ann. Prod. Gb
600
1989
500
400
300
200
1977
100
0
0
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
Cum Prod. Gb
8
9
10 10 12
We have published four such updated papers
showing same for most countries
Q u a l i t y c o r r e c t e d e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y o f s e l e c t e d c o u n t r i e s , 19 7 0 -­‐ 19 9 6
GDP in mil 1987/petajoules
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Y ear
1990
1995
2000
Kenya
Nigeria
Senegal
Zambia
Costa Rica
Mexico
USA
Argentina
Brazil
Columbia
Venezuela
India
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailands
Netherlands
R. Hersh
By Stefan Schultz | Spiegel Online
September 1, 2010
A study by a German military think tank has
analyzed how “peak oil” might change the
global economy. The internal draft document –
leaked on the Internet – shows for the first time
how carefully the German government has
considered a potential energy crisis.
German Findings
•  Oil will determine power
•  Increasing importance of oil
exporters
•  Politics in place of the market
•  Market failures
•  Relapse into planned economy
•  Global chain reaction
•  Crisis of political legitimacy
Pentagon Quadrennial Defense
Review Report – 2/10
•  Climate change and energy are two key
issues that will play a significant role in
shaping the future security environment.
Although they produce distinct types of
challenges, climate change, energy
security, and economic stability are
inextricably linked.