The Third Wave
Paul Bacon
SILS, Waseda University
Three Waves of Democracy
• In his book The Third Wave, Samuel
Huntington argues that there have been
three waves of democratization in
modern history.
Samuel P. Huntington
Huntington’s Definition of Democracy
• Huntington offers two definitions of
democracy that apply to different
periods of time.
• Definition 1
• -Applies to 19th Century.
– 50% of adult males can vote.
– There is an executive that either
maintains majority support in an
elected parliament, or is chosen in
periodic popular elections.
Huntington’s Definition of Democracy
• Definition 2
• - Applies to 20th Century.
– Virtually all adults can vote.
– Leaders are selected through fair,
honest and periodic elections.
The Three Waves: When?
70
65
Third Wave of
Democratization (1974-?)
60
52
50
Second, Short Wave of
Democratization
(1943-1962)
40
33
30
30
First, Long Wave of
Democratization (1828-1926)
20
First Reverse Wave
(1922-1942)
10
Second Reverse
Wave (1958-1975)
11
0
0
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
The First Wave: Why?
•
Occurred mostly in Northern Europe and
white settler countries. The causes are:
1. Economic Factors:
– First countries to experience economic
development, industrialization and urbanization.
– Emergence of middle class.
– Decrease in economic inequality.
The First Wave: Why?
2. Historical events and
intellectual developments:
–
–
–
–
–
French Revolution.
American Revolution.
John Locke.
Montesquieu.
John Stuart Mill.
The First Wave: Why?
3. Religious Factors
– Over 75% of the countries that democratized in
the first wave had majority Protestant populations.
4. World War One
– Democratic countries defeated two large
authoritarian empires, the Austro-Hungarian and
Ottoman Empires.
– This produced snowballing, or a demonstration
effect, that encouraged the development of
democracy.
The Second Wave: Why?
• The second wave is largely related to WW2.
1. Imposition of Democracy.
–
Allied powers imposed democracy on certain
defeated countries, such as Japan and Germany.
2. Snowballing (demonstration) effect.
–
Some countries independently chose to be
democratic.
The Second Wave: Why?
3. Decolonization.
– Countries that had a number of colonies
(e.g. Britain, France, Holland and
Portugal) were severely weakened after
WW2.
– The United States pressured these
countries to give up their colonies.
– Many former colonies became
independent and democratic.
The Third Wave: Why?
• Some 30 countries became democratic.
1. Legitimacy.
– Democratic ideas became widely accepted.
– Authoritarian regimes could not solve economic
problems as efficiently as democratic countries.
2. Economic Growth.
– Higher standards of living and education
contributed to the expansion of the urban middle
class.
The Third Wave: Why?
3. Change in the Catholic church.
–
The Catholic church, which used to be a
supporter of authoritarian regimes, changed its
doctrine and practice and supported democracy.
4. Foreign Policy.
–
–
–
Expansion of the EU.
Promotion of democracy and human rights by
the United States.
Fall of the Soviet Union.
The Third Wave: Why?
5. Snowball (or demonstration effect).
– Early third wave transitions received
great media attention, which later
stimulated transitions in other countries.
Democratic Transition
•
Democratic transition requires three
components.
1. The end of an authoritarian regime.
2. The installation of a new democratic
regime (through elections).
3. The consolidation of this democratic
regime.
Democratic Transition A/a-d-D
A/a-d-D
A = stable, long-lasting authoritarian regime.
D = stable, long-lasting democratic regime.
a = unstable, short-lived authoritarian regime.
d = unstable, short-lived democratic regime.
Stable
Authoritarianism
Unstable
Authoritarianism
Unstable
Democracy
Time
Stable
Democracy
Processes of Democratization
•
Huntington identifies three different types of
democratization process.
1. Democratic transformation.
– takes place when powerholders take the lead in
bringing about democracy.
2. Democratic replacement.
– takes place when opposition groups take the lead in
bringing about democracy. Old authoritarian regime is
overthrown.
3. Democratic transplacement.
– takes place when there is joint action by the
government and opposition groups to promote
democratization.
Prospects for Democratic Consolidation
•
The following conditions facilitate
democratic consolidation.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Previous experience of democracy.
Relatively high GNP per capita.
Favorable external environment.
Democratic transition at an earlier, rather than later,
stage in the third wave.
5. Democratization via transplacement, rather than
transformation or replacement.
•
The following slides discuss each of these
conditions more in detail.
1. Previous Democratic Experience
• Huntington argues that:
– Some experience of democracy is better
than none.
– Longer experience of democracy is better
than shorter experience.
– The more recent the democratic
experience, the better.
Chart: Years of Democratic Experience
More than 20 years
Uruguay, The Philippines, India, Turkey, Chile
10-19 years
Greece, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Korea,
Pakistan, Brazil
1-9 years
Argentina, Honduras, Guatemala, Hungary,
Czechoslovakia, Grenada, Nigeria
Less than one year
Spain, Portugal, El Salvador, Poland, Romania,
East Germany, Bulgaria, Nicaragua, Sudan,
Mongolia
2. Level of Economic Development
• The higher level of economic development,
the greater the likelihood of stable democracy.
• Economically developed countries have:
–
–
–
–
More industrialized economies.
More modern economies.
More complex societies.
Better educated populations.
• These factors all help consolidate democracy.
Chart: Democracy and GNP per capita
Higher than
$5, 000
$2, 000 – $4, 999
Spain, East Germany, Hungary,
Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria
$1, 000 – $1, 999
Ecuador, Peru, Turkey, Grenada,
Chile
$500 – $999
Honduras, Guatemala, El
Salvador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, The
Philippines
Less than $500
India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan
Greece, Portugal, Argentina,
Uruguay, Brazil, Poland, Romania,
Korea
3. The External Environment
• A foreign country can have a positive
influence on democratic consolidation, if the
relevant foreign government:
– is itself democratic.
– promotes democracy in other countries.
– has close relations with the third wave country in
question.
– is able to exercise influence in the third wave
country in question.
Chart: External Environment and Democracy
Extremely
favorable
East Germany, Spain, Portugal, Greece
Quite
Favorable
Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland,
Turkey, The Philippines, Guatemala, El
Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia,
Grenada
Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Korea,
Chile
Favorable
Unfavorable
Argentina, Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sudan,
Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia
4. The Timing of the Democratic Transition
• Early = Indigenous
– Earlier democratizations are more likely to be the
result of indigenous causes, rather than a
snowball effect.
• Indigenous = Consolidation
– Democratic transitions caused by indigenous
factors are more likely to lead to consolidated
democracies.
• Therefore, Early = Consolidation
– The earlier a country democratizes within the third
wave, the more likely it is to become a
consolidated democracy.
First Dates of Elections and Democracy
Before 1980
Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ecuador, India, Nigeria,
1980 – 1983
Peru, Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Turkey
1984 – 1987
Uruguay, Brazil, The Philippines, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Korea, Grenada, Sudan
1988 – 1990
Pakistan, Poland, Hungary, East Germany,
Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia,
Nicaragua, Chile
Possible after
1990
Mexico, Soviet Union, South Africa, Taiwan,
Nepal, Panama
5. Process of Democratic Transition
•
•
Huntington identified three processes of
democratic transition; transformation,
replacement and transplacement.
Huntington argues:
1. There is more chance of a successful democratic
consolidation if elites from the previous nondemocratic regime are satisfied.
2. There is less chance of democratic consolidation
if the transition involved violence.
•
If the above statements are true, it follows
that transplacement is most likely to lead to
consolidated democracy.
Chart: Transition Process and Democracy
Type of Old Regime
Transition
Process
One party
Personal
Military
Racial
Oligarchy
Transplacement
Poland
Czechoslovakia
Nicaragua
Mongolia
(Nepal)
Uruguay
Bolivia
Honduras
El Salvador
Korea
(South Africa)
Transformation
Hungary
Bulgaria
(Taiwan)
(USSR)
(Taiwan)
Spain
India
Chile
Turkey
Brazil
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Nigeria
Pakistan
Sudan
Replacement
East Germany
Portugal
The
Philippines
Romania
Greece
Argentina
Chart: Overall Prospects for Democracy
Most Favorable Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay,
Turkey
Less Favorable Czechoslovakia, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru,
but Supportive Honduras, India, Argentina, Brazil, The Philippines,
Poland, Hungary, (Korea)
Less Favorable Guatemala, Grenada, Nigeria, El Salavador,
Pakistan, Nicaragua, Bulgaria, Mongolia
Especially
Unfavorable
Sudan, Romania
Chart: Freedom Classification by
Freedom House (2003)
Free
Partly Free
Not Free
Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany,
Uruguay, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Chile,
Bolivia, Peru, Brazil, The Philippines, India,
Poland, Hungary, Grenada, Bulgaria, El
Salvador, Mongolia, Romania, Korea
Turkey, Ecuador, Honduras, Argentina,
Guatemala, Nigeria, Nicaragua
Pakistan, Sudan
http://www.freedomhouse.org
Further Democratization?
• Most currently authoritarian governments do
not have any previous democratic experience.
• Huntington is not sure whether the third wave
will continue or not.
• Huntington raises the possibility that some
cultures may not be amenable to democracy.
He suggests two versions of this “cultural
obstacle” argument.
Cultural Obstacles to Democracy?
• The two versions of the “cultural obstacle”
argument.
• Version 1
– Only Western cultures are amenable to democracy.
Non-western countries are not.
• Version 2
– Not all non-western cultures are amenable to
democracy. But there are certain cultures which
are resistant to democratic transition, such as
Islamic and Confucian culture.
Democracy as Western Culture
•
There is evidence to suggest that the first
argument is true.
1. Modern democracy originated in the West.
2. Since the early 19th century, most democratic
countries have been western countries.
3. Outside of the North Atlantic, democratic
transition has been most likely in;
•
•
•
Former British colonies.
Countries heavily influenced by the United States.
Former colonies of Spain and Portugal in Latin America.
Democracy as Western Culture
4. In 1973, at the lowest point in the second
reverse wave, there were only 29
democracies. Among them:
•
•
•
20 were west European or European settler
countries or Latin American countries.
8 were former British colonies.
Japan.
5. Of the 30 third wave countries, 23 were
western countries, or countries where there
had been substantial western influence.
End of Lecture.
Thank you for your attention.