Democratization in Asia
Causes, Processes, and
Consequences
Outline
• 3rd wave of democratization
• Causes
– economic
– cultural
• Processes
• Consequences
– economy
– security
Waves of Democratization
• ``A group of transitions from
nondemocratic to democratic
regimes that occur within a
specified period of time and
that significantly outnumber
transitions in the opposite
direction during that period”
The First Two Waves
• A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926
• A reverse wave of democratic breakdown
from 1922 to 1942
• A wave of democratization after World
War II from 1943 to 1964
• A reverse wave of democratic breakdown
from 1961 to 1975
The Third Wave
• Started in Portugal and Spain in mid1970s
• Spread to South America from late 1970s
to early 1980s
• Reached Asia in late 1980s
• Surge of transitions in East Europe at end
of 1980s
• South Africa 1990
The Third Wave
Causes of Regime Change
CAUSES OF CRISES
Structural variables
Procedural variables
Internal variables
 economic
development
 social cleavages
 institutions
 etc.
 international
competition
 military threat
 etc.
 political leadership
 strategic efforts
 etc.
External variables
 foreign policy
choice by major
states and
institutions, etc.
Economic Explanation?
• Almost all rich countries have democratic
institutions
Economic Variable
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Economic development
dispersion of resources
economic pluralism
social pluralism
political pluralism
Economic Variable
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Economic development
middle class
demand for democracy
elite bargaining
political accommodation
Economic Variable
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Economic development
rising expectations
economic difficulties
popular discontent
regime crises
Cultural Explanation?
• Are Islam and the ``Asian values”
obstacles to democracy?
Support for Democracy
• World Values Surveys and European
Values Surveys
• The following slide shows the percentage
of respondents who said a democratic
system is a ``very good” or ``fairly good”
way of governing this country
• Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries
actually rank relatively high
Support for Strong Leader
• The following slide shows the percentage
of respondents who said ``having a strong
leader who does not have to bother with
parliament and elections” would be ``very
good” or ``fairly good”
• Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries
actually have relatively low support for this
authoritarian option
Scenarios of Change
• Preservation of authoritarian regime
• Gradual transition to
– authoritarian pluralism
• Gradual and moderate liberalization
• Gradual and moderate democratization
• Radical transition toward
– a new authoritarian regime
– a democracy
Regime Changes
Non-democracy
Preservation
State Crises
Democracy
Regime Change
Democracy
Non-democracy
Top-down Processes
• From top down
– Conflict of interest
– Elite competition
– Gradual transition
• Problematic implications:
– democratization is easy
– skillful elite can establish democracy in any
setting
Bottom-up Processes
• From bottom up
– Popular demand
– Political movement
– Radical revolution
Consequences
• Does democracy promote economic
growth?
• Does democracy promote security?