Joint Donor Assessment of the Underlying Principles
in March 2014
18/03/14
Note: While the World Bank and the African Development Bank support the approach set out in this assessment, they cannot adhere to it
because of their respective overall legal mandates as well as their own operational policies and guidelines. Both institutions will however
coordinate their assessment with the proposed approach in relevant areas.
Underlying Principle 1
UP 1
Summary Assessment

Continuing sound Macroeconomic
Policies and Management
Green
Orange
Key concerns to Raise in Dialogue
GoT commitments and/or guarantees regarding parastatals need to be discussed and addressed since
these contingent liabilities have the potential to significantly impact GoT fiscal space. The PER study
approved for 2014 on contingent liabilities and pensions can form an input for such discussions.

The new VAT Act should be prepared and passed in order to improve tax revenue. This could include
removal of a number of exemptions as well as looking at the discretionary powers from legislation.

The adjustment to last year’s domestic borrowing as well as this year’s potential revenue shortfall
should be managed in a planned and transparent way in line with fiscal targets. Technical agreement
reached with recent IMF mission is welcome, but it is, important that Government now follows through
with planned expenditure adjustment and is important that the government keeps to the medium term
plan for deficit reduction as the deficit impacts government debt, private sector growth and overall
macro stability. The accumulation of new arrears should be avoided. The potential for capacity
improvements in the management of these types of issues should be discussed. It is recommended that
the GoT follows its stated goal of renewing the PSI arrangement with IMF
Conclusions:
Economic growth is expected to remain strong at approximately 7% but the uneven distribution of the economic benefits, mainly due to the lower growth in the populous
agricultural sector, remain an issue for concern.
Regarding macroeconomic policies and management, the Government of Tanzania has for the most part been able to manage main imbalances through a prudent monetary
and fiscal policy. However for the fiscal year 2012/13 the high budget deficit of 5,8% of GDP, 0.3% higher than planned, resulted in net domestic financing at a level higher than
agreed with IMF. The main reason was very ambitious revenue targets combined with higher than forecasted levels of expenditure. There has also been an increase in nonconcessional borrowing resulting in rapidly increasing debt service. For the first part of this fiscal year, revenue has fallen short of initial projections, requiring an adjustment of
the budget. The GoT handling of inflation is seen as adequate and inflation is down to single digits at 6.0% in January 2014. If Cabinet approves agreed expenditure reductions
and draft VAT Act for submission to Parliament, the IMF will be able to conclude their SCF Review.
The Current Account deficit, to a large part driven by expensive oil imports, is expected to decline in the medium term as cheaper gas from the Mtwara region becomes
available. It is expected that the energy tariff increase in combination with the significant DP support that has been agreed will provide sufficient to allow the GoT to meet the
financial difficulties of TANESCO within the agreed fiscal framework.
Other issues potentially of concern are fluctuations in commodity prices, shortfalls in revenue collection, the substantial tax exemptions as well as contingent liabilities and
arrears related to parastatals and PPPs. The 2014 PER studies will look at arrears, contingent liabilities, pensions, PPPs and non-tax revenues.
2 18/03/14
Changes since the last Assessment:
 Revenue has fallen short of initial projections requiring an adjustment of the budget in the mid-year review. It is important that the accumulation of new arrears is avoided
in this process.
 Debt: Domestic financing was reported to exceed the agreed IMF target with 1.2% of GDP for last financial year. New borrowing, supporting infrastructure investments has
been non-concessional which due to the more stringent debt service conditions affects debt service significantly. It is now expected to reach 2.5% of GDP up from 1% a
couple of years ago.
 Recommend renewing PSI agreement with IMF
Tanesco situation more positive after tariff increase and discussions.
Assessment Methodology
The CG group with Sweden as lead drafter has been responsible for compiling the text based on available statistics and analyses from mainly the GoT and IMF as well as the
WB (RBA and Economic Update).
Evidence Used in
Assessment Narrative
Assessment
Macroeconomic context
Growth
Real GDP grew by 7.0%i in 2013 mainly driven by growth in the areas of Services (retail trade and communication/telecom/banking) and to a lesser
extent Industry (Manufacturing and Construction) and supported by improved power supplyii. Due to high population growth GDP/capita grew by
I
WB Tanzania Economic
4.3% during the same time period. Except for construction, economic growth has been concentrated in capital intensive sectors where the
Update 4, projection.
ii
contribution to job creation normally is small. In the agricultural sector where around 70% of the population is active, economic growth was only
Ibid.
iii
WB Tanzania Economic 4.2% (2013)iii, although somewhat higher than the population growth of 2.7%iv
Update 4, projection.
iv
Inflation
NBS
The BoT (Bank of Tanzania) has reduced monetary expansion and increased the discount rate and minimum reserve requirements for government
deposits. These actions together with decreasing food and energy prices have decreased inflation to 6.2%v (November 2013) from its peak of 20% in
v
S CPI 6.2%, Core 5,3%
November 2013. Source the end of 2011.
BoT Dec 2013
Budget and debt
The fiscal deficit rose from 5% fiscal year 2011-12 to 6.2% 2012-13. This led to net domestic financing in excess of targets agreed with IMF
(International Monetary Fund) by 1.2% of GDP. This will require the government to show restraint in acquiring further debt during the coming
period.
vi
Preliminary figure
from the RBA 2013
vii
Part of these results
Revenue has fallen short of initial projections for the first part of the current fiscal year (2013-14). To compensate, the GoT will have to implement
significant mid-term adjustments to the budget in order to align to the fiscal deficit target of 5% of GDP. At the same time this has to be done in a
3 18/03/14
are due to underreporting so no exact
figures are possibl
viii
MoF/WB Rba data
ix
Preliminary figure from
the RBA 2013
x
BoT Quarterly report
Dec 2013 and IMF
country report June
2013.
xi
WB Tanzania Economic
Update 4, projection.
xii
Gold, coffee, tea,
cashew nuts and cotton.
xiii
WB TEO Dec 2013
xiv
BoT Dec 2013: 8603,8
MUSD 2012 to 8479,8
MUSD 2013
xv
Ibid. Tobacco, cotton
and sisal.
xvi
Ibid.
xvii
BoT Dec 2013: from
13007,8 MUSD 2012 to
13588.3 MUST 2013
xviii
Ibid
xix
Ibid. Note that 2013
refers to the time period
Dec 2012-Nov 2013
while 2012 refers to the
time period Dec 2011Nov 2012.
way that does not result in the accumulation of new arrears.
Recurrent expenditure was at 73.5% 2012-13, up from 65% 2011-12. For the development budget the level of execution was 80%vi with Judiciary,
Water, Health and Energy sectors being the worst performers.vii The locally financed part of development expenditure has increased from 33% in
2007/2008 to 56viii% in 2012/13. The gap between total approved and executed budget decreased to 10%ix for 2012-13 from 15% for the preceding
year.
Public debt as a proportion of GDP has increased from 32% in 2008/2009 to 42 % of GDP in 2013.x Most of the borrowing undertaken by GoT has
been concessional but during the last two years, new borrowing supporting infrastructure investments has been non-concessional. Interest
payments on foreign debt has increased from 0.1% of GDP in 2009/10 to a projected 0.7% of GDP in 2013/14 while total debt service has increased,
from 1% of GDP to an expected 2.5% in the time period.xi The development of the public debt, both domestic and foreign, should be carefully
monitored.
Balance of Payment and exchange rates,
The nominal exchange rate of the TZS has been relatively stable but the previous high indigenous inflation relative to important trading partners has
resulted in a continuous appreciation of the real exchange rate. This has been negative for exports relative to trading partners in EU, China and the
Americas with lower inflation rate while imports have become cheaper. The decline in the inflation rate will stabilize the real exchange rate.
In spite of this the terms of trade has steadily improved for Tanzania during recent years. This increase has mainly been driven by increases in the
value of primary commodities exportsxii but also the value of exports of manufactured goods have increasedxiii. This has resulted in an improvement
of the current account. However during the last year (2013 versus 2012) the trend has changed. The export of goods and services has decreased.xiv
The decline was largely explained by a decrease in production volumes as well as a decline in the export price of gold and a number of primary
commoditiesxv Income from services has increased by 14.4% mainly driven by increasing number of tourists and transit goods to and from land
locked countries.xvi At the same time, imports of goods and services have increased slightly due to oil imports for power generation. xvii Oil imports do
now constitute 31.8% of the total value of imports.xviii
Due to the fall in goods exports and official current transfers and the increase in imports during the last year, the positive trend for the current
account has changed and increased from a deficit of 3 708.3 MUSD in 2012 to a deficit of 4120 MUSD for the fiscal year 2012/13 and 4 553.5 MUSD
in 2013xix.
IMF Current arrangement
The authorities have good collaborative engagement with the IMF on macroeconomic policy issues. The three-year Policy Support Instrument (PSI)
arrangement expired on June 3, 2013, while the precautionary Standby Credit Facility (SCF) arrangement was extended through end-April, 2014. In
June 2013 the Executive Board of the IMF completed the final review of Tanzania's economic performance under the PSI and the second review
under the precautionary SCF arrangement. While the authorities in February 2013 drew the full accumulated amount of US$114 million under the
4 18/03/14
xx
WB TEO Dec 2013.
BoT MER Nov 2013.
xxii
World Bank: Tanzania
Economic Update
(annexes); Dec 2013
xxiii
To note, preliminary
data shows that tax
exemptions as a
percentage of GDP
declined to 3.1 percent
in 2012/13 from 3.9
percent of GDP in
2011/12. Both customs
and domestic revenue
departments recorded a
decline in tax
exemptions. That said,
tax exemptions as
percent of GDP remain
relatively high,
accounted for largely by
exemptions of VAT and
custom duties to private
companies and
individuals, particularly
mining companies, and
TIC registered
companies.
xxi
SCF, the intention going forward continues to be to treat the arrangement as precautionary. The government has indicated an interest in entering
into a new three-year PSI program. An IMF mission visited Tanzania in February to conclude the final review of the SCF and continue negotiations of
a possible new PSI program. Subject to Cabinet approval of agreed expenditure reductions and the draft VAT Act for submission to Parliament, the
IMF will be able to conclude the SCF Review. There has been good progress in the negotiations on a new PSI, though the MoF has requested more
time to discuss the reforms included within the government.
Assessment of outlook and challenges in the short to medium term
Macroeconomic aggregates are within acceptable limits however the negative trend for debt service, revenue and to a lesser extent, the Current
Account, should be followed. The verified potential for future revenue from the exploitation of gas introduces new possibilities. The findings on
poverty reduction from the last household budget survey are difficult to interpret and the inclusiveness of the high GDP growth is unclear.
Revenue
Domestic revenue has continued to grow over the past years from 11.8% in FY 2004/05 to 17.6%xx in 2011/12. However the growth for 2012/13 was
only 0.2% despite ambitious initial targets. Some reasons for the low revenue was that it proved difficult to get acceptance for some of the suggested
new taxes ( SIM cards and money transfers) as well as delays in increased taxes from the raised minimum wages. Declining gold prices has also
lowered tax collected from the mining companies.xxi At the same time grants decreased with 0.7% and total expenditure grew by 0.8%.xxii The effect
is an increasing financing gap between revenue and expenditure.
5 18/03/14
Tanzania has shown substantial progress in improving tax-revenue collection in recent years and exemptions declined to 3.1% of GDP in 2012/13xxiii,
but still the GoT needs further improvement to meet the targets of FY14 and FY15. Given the narrow tax base and the comparatively high level of tax
exemptions corresponding to approximately 18 % of collections) there is room for further improvements.
In the medium-term, GoT has embarked on several important reforms aimed at increasing revenue. This includes the preparation of a new VAT act
(to be implemented in time for the 2014/15 budget) with the aim of reducing exemptions and preferential treatments. VAT exemptions represent
approximately 44% of total exemptions. It is expected that these reforms could broaden the tax base, strengthen efficiency of the tax system,
eliminate multiple exemptions and preferential treatments and consequently increase revenue. However this will be a gradual process of up to
several years where existing agreements on exemptions have to be phased out before total effect of reforms can be seen.
A study by the Public Expenditure Review (PER) made a series of recommendations on tax exemptions which were presented at the PER annual
meeting in October 2013. These include completing a full inventory of exemptions and developing a robust data management mechanism,
publishing a tax exemptions report within 2 years, a review of the VAT input credit mechanism and reforms coordinated with other EAC countries.
The MoF is currently refining a tax exemptions action plan as a result of the study. As part of the PER 2014 process, there will also be an additional
study on tax incentives and non-tax revenues. While these efforts have the potential of improving revenue collection in the medium-term there are
still risks that parliamentary amendments and/or administrative obstacles will decrease their effectiveness.
Government Debt
The increasing financing gap between revenue and expenditure has led to an increasing need for borrowing. Borrowing needs has grown faster than
GDP leading to an increase in public debt / GDP. In parallel the composition of the debt has also changed with an increase in the part on nonconcessional borrowing.
6 18/03/14
Actual debt service by creditor category
Public Debt / GDP
120
xxiv
MoF DSA September
2013
47.2
45.9
45
42.6
44
40
37.8
35
35.6
36.6
100
Millions USD
Public Debt as % of GDP
50
80
60
40
20
0
30
Source MoF DAS 2013
Source MoF DSA September 2013
Multilateral
Bilateral
Commercial/EXP Credit
Non-concessional borrowing comes with grace periods of 2-3 years and variable interest rates of 4-6% compared to a grace period of 10 years and
fixed interest rates of 0.75% for concessional loans. An increasing part of non-concessional borrowing leads to rapidly increasing debt-service as well
as a higher level of insecurity.
The MoF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) as well as the IMF/WB DSA finds that the public debt is sustainable. However this builds on the
assumption of sustained or increased solid growth rates. The budget deficit is also assumed to stabilize at a manageable level which requires a
careful policy towards non-concessional borrowing as well as a prudent management of expenditures and revenues. In 2013, contingent liabilities
accounted for 2.7% of changes in the calculation of public debt to GDP and ”the impact would be much larger in the event that further contingent
xxv
US$ 3.5/MBtu North liabilities continue to materialize”.xxiv
America, US$ 10/MBtu The overall fiscal stance should be monitored both in light of the planned scaling up of public investments and the number of parastatals where GoT
Europé, US$ 20/MBtu
involvement could mean an exposure to contingent liabilities. A new debt management strategy and current plans to establish a centralized Debt
Asia, Very rough figures Management Office within MoF including the enactment of legislation to limit/control the growth of public debt will be important for a better
to give an indication of monitoring of fiscal risks.
the current
fragmentation of the
market.
Medium term growth and development prospects
Deposits of natural gas large enough to support decisions on investments in off-shore fields’ development and the extensive investment in related
infrastructure have been verified outside the coast of Tanzania. It is generally expected that the exploitation of these resources are going to generate
substantial incomes for the GoT.
However, the potential time path and value of these revenue flows are as yet very hard to quantify since none of the companies involved has made
any investment decisions for development of the fields. The time from a decision to develop the fields until any revenue is created is in the order of
8-10 years. The global gas market is currently extremely fragmented with prices ranging from US$ 3.5 to US$ 20xxv making it very difficult to estimate
7 18/03/14
the development of future gas prices/revenues. A number of potential sites, not least in neighboring Mozambique, compete for investors.
The President has announced his intention of tabling a bill in October Parliament on establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for gas revenue. It is
important that the designing and managing of such a fund is done in a careful and transparent manner and with an appropriate balance between
domestic and foreign investments.
Tanzania has had an exceptional GDP growth during the last decade. However with the exception of the construction industry, economic growth has
been concentrated in capital intensive rather than labour intensive sectors. The expansion of the telecommunications, banking and transportation
sectors has had a number of positive impacts on the economy, but these sectors do not have the potential to contribute directly in a significant way
to employment creation. By contrast, the relatively weak agricultural sector is thought to account for the majority of formal and informal
employment. The benefits of the high growth have therefore not spread to the majority of the population. The task of broadening the growth base
and enable job creation on a large scale is one of the main challenges for the coming period.
8 18/03/14
Underlying Principle 2
UP
Summary
Assessment
Commitment to Achieving MKUKUTA II
Objectives and MDGs
Orange
Points to Raise in Dialogue





Pro-Poor Policies: With MKUKUTA II coming to an end in 2015 it will be crucial to retain a comprehensive
policy framework with clear pro-poor focus.
Inclusive Growth: Economic growth needs to become more inclusive in the light of persistence of poverty
and limited broad-based job creation.
MDGs: Greater attention is needed for MDGs registering less progress (poverty and hunger, maternal
mortality, education, water access and sanitation, environmental sustainability).
Equity & quality services: Commitment to equity in different sectors needs to be strengthened within and
outside BRN, with particular emphasis on reaching the rural, poor and vulnerable. It is important that
improved service delivery in health remains a government priority, even if it is not currently part of BRN.
Improved efficiency in expenditure, implementation capacity, institutional and regulatory framework are
necessary in all sectors.
Better data: There is a need to more thoroughly understand poverty dynamics through better data, analysis
and debate, in order to be able to formulate better pro-poor policies and priorities.
Conclusions:
Despite impressively high GDP growth rates over the past decade, poverty in Tanzania has remained unchanged. It is estimated that about one third of Tanzania’s population
lives in poverty without significant changes over the past decade. Population growth continues to be rapid, and the expansion of services struggles to keep up with a huge
increase in numbers of children and young people. The country should be in a position by 2015 to achieve the MDG goals for gender equality, reduction of infant mortality and
fight against the spread of HIV and AIDS, malaria and others diseases. Goals that will likely not be met by 2015 are the ones related to the eradication of extreme poverty and
hunger, maternal health and environmental sustainability regarding the proportion of population having access to safe drinking water, safe sanitation and primary education.
The fast growing sectors of the economy have not been able to trickle down and reach the poor. The deficient progress in poverty reduction indicates that economic growth
needs to become more inclusive. The growth in the economy has not been sufficient to provide full, productive employment to more than a small portion of the 700,000
additional workers who enter the domestic labour market every year. One major challenge is to reach out to labour intensive sectors and enhance rural livelihoods and public
service delivery.
In order to be able to formulate better pro-poor policies and priorities, poverty trends and dynamics need to be better understood. The results of the long awaited Household
Budget Survey 2012 indicate that the overall basic needs poverty in Tanzania is 36,482 Tanzanian Shillings per adult equivalent per month and the food poverty line is 26,085
Tanzanian Shillings per adult equivalent per month. This means that 28.2% of the Tanzanian population fall below the basic needs poverty line with a percentage of 33.3
in rural areas, and 9,7% fall below the food poverty line. It is important to review HBS 2007 to attempt to match with HBS 2011/2012 methodology to be able to analyse and
confirm the poverty trend. Overall, there is a need to ensure timely and high quality data, in-depth analysis and dedicated debate to poverty trends. It will be important that
findings on poverty are used to inform the development of more pro-poor policies and prioritisation of spending, so that quality and equity of services can be improved.
Recent HBS 2011/2012 reveals that 28,2 % of the Tanzanian population falls below the basic needs poverty line and 9,7% falls below the food poverty line.
9 18/03/14
In an effort to strengthen its pledge to reduce poverty, the GoT embarked, in 2013, on a further narrowing of focus and strives to speed up the implementation of the FYDP
through the initiative Big Results Now (BRN). This new tool is being put in place to assist the GoT in setting priorities and monitor the rapid implementation of these key
priorities (before mid-2015). Six key priority areas have been identified: energy, agriculture, water, education, transport and revenue mobilization. One additional Lab on
Business Environment has been put in place early 2014 to prioritise fixing the business climate challenges and to elevate the search for solutions and action plans. It provides
an opportunity to brainstorm with the private sector around what are the imperative steps to achieve economic development and poverty reduction. In addition to political
leadership at the highest level, inter-ministerial collaboration and coordination are needed to address many of the systemic causes which continue to give shape to the current
situation. Moreover, equitable resourcing and implementation of articulated pro-poor policies are required to demonstrate GoT’s renewed commitment. It is necessary to
engage with the private sector through public private partnership to participate in FYDP and BRN’s investments plans.
In terms of growth contributing sectors, the transport sector is facing important financing gaps that have affected maintenance and long-term planning. In addition, the lack of
reliable, affordable and sustainable energy services continues to be a critical constraint for private sector development. There are improvements in key areas (e.g. institutional
strengthening for agricultural research, upgrade and rehabilitation of trunk and regional roads, draft national policy for private sector development); however challenges
remain for public expenditure efficiency and the regulatory framework. In relation to public service delivery - particularly in terms of overall access to education and health Tanzania is making important progress. However, there is concern about the unequal access to and quality of basic public services. For education, water, and health sectors,
inequities exist based on geography, wealth, and urban/rural residence. While there has been success across a range of public service delivery areas, there is a need to improve
both quality of public service delivery and measurement of their implementation effectiveness on the ground. Insufficient budget allocation, weak management and a lack of
accountability for the delivery of results and quality services are compromising service delivery.
Assessment Methodology
The assessment was compiled through technical inputs from DPs and Sector Secretariats, including JICA (Transport and Agriculture), AfDB (Income Distribution), DFID
(Education, Water and Sanitation), USAID and UNICEF (Health and Nutrition), DPG PSD Secretariat (Private Sector Development), KfW and World Bank (Water and Sanitation),
World Bank (Energy).
10 18/03/14
Evidence Used in
Assessment
Assessment Narrative
I-
Development policy framework
Tanzania Long Term Perspective Plan, adopted in June 2010, for the period 2011/12 – 2025/26. Tanzania Five Year Development Plan (FYDP), adopted
in June 2011, for the period 2011/12 – 2015/16. The National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty II (MKUKUTA II) adopted in June 2010 for
the period 2010/11-2014/15 and the Zanzibar Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty: 2010-2015 (ZSGRP II/MKUZA II), adopted in October
2010. The preeminence of the FYDP has recently been reinforced by the new government initiative "Big Results Now" (BRN). This agenda is inspired by
the Malaysian model of “result delivery” methodology. This new tool is being put in place to assist the GoT in setting priorities and monitor the rapid
implementation of these key priorities (before mid-2015). The BRN fosters prioritization of the major policy actions in the FYDP. Six key policy areas
have been identified for a phase one: i) Energy, ii) Agriculture, iii) Water, iv) Education, v) Revenue mobilization vi) Transport. BRN has been validated
in April, and a very elaborated monitoring and evaluation system has been set up, coordinated by a Presidential Bureau Delivery Bureau Unit and
Ministry Delivery Units in each Ministries. Diagnostics and Investment plans have been shared and agreed by all stakeholders during labs session in
Q1-Q2 2013. With this new plan, GoT renewed its commitment to promote growth and development in the country. The success of this plan will
depend on budget availability and realistic targets.
II-
Budget Allocations and Spending
For fiscal year 2012/13, the Government collected lower than expected domestic revenues mainly as a result of reduced non-tax revenues and underperforming VAT and duty collection. It is worth mentioning that the GoT's forecasts were ambitious so the collection levels are not necessarily as
disappointing as they may look. On the positive side, the level of exemptions granted by customs and TRA went down by 0.8% of GDP between
2011/12 and 2012/13. The Tax Exemptions PER has recently been completed and an action plan is being developed by MoF to further reduce tax
exemptions. Two further PER reports will also look at how to maximize the revenue base in 2014: the Rapid Tax Incentives Study and the Non-Tax
Revenue PER. In addition, the Public Investment Manual currently being drafted under the PER process will develop set procedures for analyzing the
rates of return on projects, including how they impact the poorest. This must be effectively implemented to achieve Mkukuta II objectives
efficiently.Public spending increased by 0.7% of GDP compared to 2011/12, with an increase in recurrent spending (from 64% to 68% of total
expenditure) and a decline in development spending from 36% to 32%. This can be attributed to inadequate planning and poor execution of foreign
financed projects. The financing sources of the budget shifted toward more non-concessional borrowing which rose by 3.0% of GDP in 2012/13
(excluding on lending to public enterprises).
About two thirds of the discretionary public spending was spent on the six Mkukuta priority sectors in 2012/13. This is equivalent to an increase of
more than 3% (or 0.2% of GDP) of spending compared to the previous year (see table below). The increase in actual spending in 2012/13 compared to
2011/12 was largely driven by the energy, water, health and education sectors, which saw their shares, increase significantly to off-set the decrease in
roads, and agriculture. The most notable increase is in the energy sector which saw its total spending rising by 2.3%. This is partly explained by the
increased transfers to TANESCO which aim to close the parastatals financial gap.
11 18/03/14
Table: Trends in priority sectors spending
2007/08 2008/09
Actual
Actual
In percentage of total spending
Education
Health
Water
Agriculture
Roads
Energy
Total
Total (excl CFS)
20.6%
9.0%
3.5%
4.9%
9.4%
1.3%
48.8%
54.3%
2009/10
Actual
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
2012/13
Actual
Actual Budegt Prel actual
2013/14
Budget
18.0%
13.6%
2.6%
4.2%
9.4%
1.3%
49.2%
52.6%
17.1%
8.7%
2.8%
5.6%
13.4%
1.6%
49.1%
53.6%
18.7%
9.1%
2.3%
4.8%
11.1%
2.9%
48.9%
57.7%
18.3%
8.1%
1.9%
4.8%
14.7%
4.8%
52.6%
59.2%
21.2%
9.6%
4.5%
4.0%
11.6%
5.2%
56.2%
65.5%
21.0%
9.4%
2.8%
4.5%
13.4%
7.2%
58.4%
62.5%
19.6%
8.7%
4.3%
3.0%
12.9%
7.8%
56.3%
64.6%
4.6%
3.5%
0.7%
1.1%
2.4%
0.3%
12.7%
4.6%
2.4%
0.7%
1.5%
3.6%
0.4%
13.2%
5.3%
2.5%
0.6%
1.8%
3.8%
0.8%
14.5%
4.8%
2.1%
0.5%
1.2%
3.9%
1.3%
13.9%
6.1%
2.6%
1.3%
1.2%
3.4%
1.5%
16.7%
5.1%
2.3%
0.7%
1.1%
3.2%
1.7%
14.1%
5.9%
2.6%
1.3%
1.0%
3.9%
2.4%
17.5%
In percentage of GDP
Education
Health
Water
Agriculture
Roads
Energy
Total
4.7%
2.1%
0.8%
1.1%
2.2%
0.3%
11.1%
Source: Ministry of Finance and World Bank estimates
The objective of the 2013/14 approved budget is to reduce the overall fiscal deficit to 5% of GDP. It is expected that this would be achieved through
an unprecedented increase in tax and nontax revenues (including LGAs own revenues) up by 3.1% of GDP when compared to 2012/13 actual outturn.
The spending allocation of the approved 2013/14 budget appears well aligned with the strategic priorities of recent national strategies, but remains
insufficient to finance the Big Results Now initiative whose aim is to accelerate the achievement of results in six priority sectors. The stock of public
debt is projected to reach 48% of GDP at the end 2013/14, while the debt service (excluding amortization of domestic debt) should be as high as 2.5%
of GDP (up from 1.8% in 2012/13) driven largely by foreign debt service. These figures point to a relatively rapid decline in Government’s fiscal space.
Despite the need for the implementation of the BRN action plans the share of total spending of the six Mkukuta priority sectors in the 2013/14 budget
declines compared to the approved budget in 2012/13. The six Mkukuta priority sectors are set to consume 64.6% of the 2013/14 budget (excluding
CFS) compared 65.5% in 2012/13 (see table above). As a share of GDP, allocations to the six priority sectors increased between 2012/13 and 2013/14
by 0.8%. The main drivers of increased allocations to priority sectors are water, energy and roads, which saw significant increases in the 2013/14
budget. The sectors which are included in the National Key Results Areas (NKRAs) under BRN are education, water, agriculture, transport/roads, and
energy. There is also a revenue mobilization priority.
The share of actual total public expenditure (excluding CFS) devoted to education, health, water, agriculture, roads, and energy increased to 62.5% in
2012/13 from 59.2% in 2011/12. However budget execution is a serious challenge especially for development spending and the infrastructure sector.
12 18/03/14
III-
Overall analysis on poverty reduction
Progress
Based on available information, poverty in Tanzania has not changed much over the last decade. Official poverty levels (based on Household Budget
Surveys, HBS) fell from 38.6% in 1992 to 35.7% in 2001 and 33.6% in 2007. The most recent poverty headcount of 28.2% based on the 2011/12 HBS
cannot be compared to the previous series due to differences in the underlying poverty estimation methodology and survey instrument. In 2007/08
and 2010/11 the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) produced semi-official poverty estimates based on two rounds of the National Panel Survey (NPS),
suggesting stagnant poverty and inequality patterns. Due to different methodologies, the data from the NPS is not directly comparable to the official
HBS estimates. The national trend analysis is supported by information from the Afrobarometer Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS),
according to which about one third of Tanzania’s population continues to experience occasional or chronic problems in satisfying basic food needs.
Overall, It is important to emphasize that there is some uncertainty regarding the prevailing trend assessment and further analytical work is needed
(and underway) to assess the change in poverty over the 2007 to 2011/12 period.
National Panel Survey
Tanzania’s experience is not unique when comparing to some other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the likely lack of reduction in
poverty indicates that the economic growth has not been sufficiently inclusive. One major weakness is that growth has failed to impact the rural
population, which constitutes approximately two thirds of the total population and 80% of the poor. Fertility rates are high, particularly in the western
part of the country. Overall population growth is 2.6% (2012)1, with slightly decreasing through high fertility rates (5.53 childs per woman)2.
Afrobarometer
Surveys
With the rapid expansion of the economy in recent years, constant poverty levels along with stagnant inequality changes are puzzling—as somebody
must be gaining from higher income. Despite policy commitment, implementation on the ground of development initiative has sometimes been weak,
and agricultural incomes have largely stagnated, with aggregate agricultural production growing barely faster than the population. The high growth
has been concentrated in a few capital-intensive sectors, such as trade, manufacturing, transport, financial services, and telecoms. These five sectors
are driving almost 60 percent of GDP growth (during the past three years). Consequently, labor-intensive sectors have not sufficiently benefitted from
high growth rates, which have failed to produce widespread job creation. In addition, relatively high demographic growth puts pressure on public
services delivery, and the formal and informal job markets. Underemployment and seasonal labor is chronic, especially in rural areas and among the
youth.
Demographic
Household Survey
Main challenges
Household Budget
Survey
Tanzania’s main development challenge is to ensure that economic growth becomes more inclusive. Despite impressive GDP growth rates of 7 percent
and massive international aid inflows over the past decade, Tanzania continues to be among the world’s poorest countries. With a GDP per capita of
USD 609 (2012)3 and a rank on the Human Development Index (despite an increase of its HDI value) among the lowest 20 percentile (152 out of 186
countries). Tanzania continues to be one of the poorest 15 nations in the world.
1
Source: World Bank
Figures for 2011
3 Source: World Bank
2
13 18/03/14
Key elements of dialogue
Despite steady economic growth rates it is likely that currently about one third of Tanzania’s population is poor. The main reason is limited job
creation in labour-intensive sectors.
In Tanzania there is a need to assure time-consistent comparability of income information, strengthen regular national data collection mechanism,
and support analysis to stimulate evidenced-based discussions about national income changes and their distribution.
There is an opportunity for new political commitment. In addition to achieve growth and investment objectives, there is the need to tackle poverty
reduction and reach concrete results in priority sectors through the Big Results Now! (BRN) initiative. BRN should be complemented with activities
targeting the poor and the most vulnerable segment of the population.
Cluster I : Growth and Reduction of Income Poverty
1- Agriculture
1.1 Budget Analysis
The execution of the budget in the agriculture sector declined from 78.5% to 69.6% between 2011/12 and 2012/13 due to the non-release of all
budgeted funds. Low release of budgeted funds, at 70%, mainly contributed to low execution rate in the sector. On a more positive note, the
utilization rate of funds received is encouraging with nearly 100 percent of funds received by MDAs and LGAs being spent in 2012/13. At the moment
the increased budget for hiring more agriculture staff is not accompanied by increased non-salary (operational) budget. And there may well be a
continuing decline in non-salary budgets for extension in the future as the ASDP budgets for LGAs declines.
In 2013/14, this sector’s share of total budget has declined to 3% from 4% in 2012/13. The share of development expenditures remains stable
compared to previous years although there is a continued dependency on foreign funding for development expenditures. Capital investments remain
low, representing 12% of the overall agriculture budget and 27.3% of development expenditures, but shares have improved two years in a row. A
large portion of the sector budget is allocated to input subsidy programs and the National Food Reserve Agency, leaving limited resources for other
programs such as land use and planning, animal disease control and seeds breeding.
The BRN initiative will initially be implemented for two years with the initial budget of Tsh. 1.78 trillion to be financed by the Government and DPs.
The level and modality of funding BRN activities are not yet clear for both national and local levels.
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1.2 Progress
Growth rate in agriculture is below 4%4. This is below the MKUKUTA target of 6-8%, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme
(CAADP) benchmark of 6% and the national GDP growth rate of 7-8%. While the share of agricultural GDP as a component of the national GDP is
decreasing (23.4% in 2011), it is still a significant contribution for a single sector. Increasing growth in the sector is critical in order to reduce income
poverty.
The GoT remains committed to strengthen research, extension and data for the sector. In its pledge to improve research, the GoT is reforming the
agriculture research institutes and establishing semi-autonomous research bodies such as the Tanzania Livestock Research Institute (TALIRI) and the
Livestock Training Agency (LITA) in order to improve coordination and efficiency of research activities at both national and local level.
The authorities have continued to improve the ratio of extension officers to farmers through recruitment and training of new extension officers. There
are currently 7,974 field extension officers spread across the country in 163 LGAs. The extension service policy is to have one extension officer per
village in all 15,000 villages. Hence most extension officers now each cover 2-3 villages. Efforts to strengthen services for smallholder female and male
farmers continue through farmer field schools, farmer-to-farmer extension and study tours.
The GoT also continues to improve Agriculture Statistics through the Global Strategy for Improving Agriculture Statistics initiative supported by FAO,
USDA and AfDB. The NBS and ASLMs are (i) developing an Agricultural Statistics Strategic Plan, (ii) strengthening National Sample Census of
Agriculture, (iii) introducing Agricultural Annual Sample Survey and (iv) strengthening Agricultural Routine Data System. Inclusion of agricultural
questions in the Population Census (August 2012) has become the good basis of these improvement.
The Agribusiness Show in November 2012 invited potential private investors to Tanzania and introduced SAGCOT investment areas. Requests for
proposals for investment were announced in early 2013 and the selection procedure is in progress.
The Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP I) 2012/13 came to an end in June 2013, as three impact assessment studies were conducted
on irrigation, extension services and local infrastructure (still underway). Findings from these studies highlight the challenge with data in the sector;
however the overall trend is in the right direction. For example, irrigation has reached 364,000 Ha (2012/13) compared to 150,000 Ha in 2002, though
challenges remain in construction design and cost, unchanged cropping intensity.
Positive lessons from ASDP I are being incorporated into ASDP II. This second phase will require robust target setting with strong leadership and
ownership from GoT. This process needs to be accelerated so that it can be reflected in the 2014/15 budget planning.
Since 2008/9, approximately TSh480bn has been invested in the NAIVS programme. A joint study was conducted by MAFC, REPOA and the World Bank
to establish whether NAIVS met its intended goals. The impact evaluation suggests that the NAIVS program did improve productivity. It contributed
approximately 2.5mn mt of additional maize and paddy to national food supplies over the 2009/10-2012/13 period. Participating farmers achieved an
average yield gain of 433kg per acre for maize and 263kg per acre for paddy. This helped Tanzania maintain food self-sufficiency even in the face of
4
Source: ASDS II
15 18/03/14
regional drought, and the additional paddy production offset the need for rice imports. There was also some long-term improvement in the adoption
of inputs. Of those who had not previously tried inputs prior to NAIVS, 47 percent bought improved seed and 19 percent fertilizer after they graduated
from the scheme.
However, there were significant variations in the range of yields being achieved. The average yield gains achieved in drier regions were substantially
lower than those in areas in higher rainfall zones. In addition, returns for improved inputs were significantly lower for rice than for maize. While
fertilizer use considerably increased average yields, up to 30 percent of beneficiaries were still obtaining yields of less than 500kg per acre. This is
simply not enough to pay for the fertilizer input.
The variability of the impact data makes it difficult to establish a definitive return on investment. Overall the benefit-cost ratio for maize across all
regions was 130% but this masks substantial variability across all regions. For paddy, revenues are only positive in three out of five rice growing
regions. Even when they are significant, the benefit cost ratio reveals only modest returns. The overall benefit cost ratio is only 65.83% for paddy. It
should also be noted that there were a number of implementation challenges. These included delays in printing and distribution of the vouchers,
delays in delivery of inputs, delays in payments of suppliers and some misallocation of vouchers. In addition, the three year graduation strategy was
inconsistently enforced. To improve returns, MAFC should consider if NAIVS can be better targeted or if there are other market based solutions which
provide better value for money.
Agriculture Sector
Development Strategy
Tanzania’s recent BRN Initiative provides clarity on priorities for the sector, clear targets and indicators against which the sector can be measured.
However, key cross-sectoral issues and risks with this approach need to be discussed and mitigation strategies put in place to ensure that income
growth in the sector is poverty focused and delivers results for smallholders. Among these issues: huge funding gap (TSH 14.3 trillion which consists of
TSH 12.3 trillion from private sector investment and TSH 1.9 trillion from GoT and DPs), geographical concentration, focus on 3 commodities (rice,
maize and sugar), smallholders outside of BRN Initiative, land, environment and gender.
Positive progress has been made on the institutional framework for the implementation of BRN Initiative. The interim Ministerial Delivery Unit (MDU)
has been set up in the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFC) in mid-July. The National Steering Committee for Agriculture in
the framework of the BRN Initiative has also been established by the Minister of MAFC and the first meeting was held in mid- August.
The new Agriculture Policy was approved by Cabinet in 2013. The policy provides clarity on the direction for the sector. The Agriculture Sector
Development Strategy (2001) is being revised, updated and finalized by the Government.
1.3 Main challenges
As the BRN Initiative is implemented, it is anticipated that considerable resources (manpower and financial resources) of the GoT will be diverted to
the BRN! Initiative activities, interrupting regular or on-going activities. This opportunity cost must be carefully measured and the balance between
the focus on growth and continued basic support to the rest of the country (districts) must be well considered.
The sector has seen a proliferation of projects and initiatives in the recent years. There is recognition amongst stakeholders including Government and
Development Partners for the need to have a clear sector strategy and effective coordination mechanisms to ensure that all investments in the sector
are captured with evidence based analysis to inform policy decisions. The formulation of the ASDP II that covers entire sector investments and
16 18/03/14
coordination mechanism among the stakeholders which includes private sector is under way.
1.4 Key elements of dialogue
Selected key elements of dialogue with the GoT would focus on:
(i) The functions of the organizations like PDB (for agriculture, Agricultural Delivery Division) and MDU under BRN Initiative in relation to the functions
of existing sector Ministries must be clarified before the next budget preparation season;
(ii) The huge gap in BRN Initiative resources indicates that the plan is not realistic, so to implement and monitor it and achieve tangible results, it is
necessary to adjust it considering the baseline and available resources;
(iii) Although BRN Initiative intends to expedite the process to achieve the big fast results, clarity needs to be provided on how the cross-cutting risks
(environment, land inclusion of smallholders) that are emerging will be mitigated; and
(iv) Most of the recent discussions are on growth oriented (including BRN Initiative), however, concrete public measures and interventions for poverty
reduction (not only agricultural aspect) need to be discussed between GOT and DPs.
2- Transport
2.1 Budget Analysis
In 2012/13, the transport sector recorded overspending by more than 50% (or about Sh350 billion) of the approved budget. Most of this went towards
clearing arrears in the roads subsector. Despite these efforts, outstanding payments at the end of June 2013 amounted to Sh376 billion, after a net
increase of Tsh 221 billion in arrears in 2012/13. Furthermore, physical execution of roads projects remained low due to diversion of funds towards
the clearance of arrears and the suspension or slow execution of works by numerous contractors whose invoices remained unpaid.
In 2013/14, the share of public resources going to the transport sector is projected to increase significantly from 11.6% to 12.9% of total approved
budget between 2012/13 and 2013/14, both for road and non-road subsectors. Nonetheless, the increased 2013/14 budget for the transport sector
still does not meet the funding requirements for TSIP Phase II and the BRN Initiatives. The underfunding of the BRN could partly be explained by the
mismatch between the timing of the budget process and launch of the BRN initiative. This increase may still not impact on the physical execution of
projects as a considerable portion of funds will be used to clear arrears in roads subsectors.
2.2 Progress
Tanzania’s Vision 2025 requires among other things good physical infrastructure and access to economic and social services for all Tanzanians. To that
end, MKUKUTA II enumerates priority areas of investment including rural roads, transit traffic facilitation, trunk and regional roads, rail and air
transport, ports, and urban transport.
Over the course of the Transport Sector Investment Programme (TSIP I, 2007-2012) implementation, transport budget has been predominantly
allocated to trunk and regional roads where significant strides have been made in upgrading and rehabilitating to bitumen standards and the road
conditions have been maintained with increased Road Fund allocations with the percentage of roads in good and fair conditions rising to the mid 80’s.
17 18/03/14
Even so it is evident that underfunding of TSIP I along with management inefficiencies and cost inflation delayed the pace of trunk and regional road
development, and the overarching objectives of full bituminization of trunk roads and all the Regional Centers connected with paved roads by 2018
are not going to be achieved.
On the other hand, Local Government Transport Programme (LGTP I), a development program for LGA roads including Urban, District, and Feeder
roads was even more severely underfunded. The modest Government’s own budgetary allocations and donor support had been phased out towards
the end of the LGTP I implementation period, and LGTP II covering the five year period beginning FY 2012/13 are yet to be funded. However, a steady
flow of resources has been channelled to LGAs through the Road Fund, the bulk of which is used for maintenance purposes. Thus, during the LGTP I
implementation period there was a significant improvement of road conditions from fair to good while very little investment was made in the
development of roads in poor condition.
The GoT’s commitment to the transport sector through the BRN Initiative is a step forward. The main focus is on the rail subsector, which had been
deprived of investments for decades and its performance had all but collapsed. The revival of the RACOH/TRL by investing in rail infrastructure and in
rolling stocks, and reforming the corporate structure of RAHCO/TRL and adopting a new business model is what the BRN Initiative Transport aims to
achieve. The outcome indicator is the capacity measured in actual haulage in millions of tons per annum, whose target for 2005 is set at three million
tons, a more than tenfold increase from the current 200,000 tons per annum.
Dar es Salaam Port is another major piece in the BRN! Initiative in transport. The BRN Initiative aims to enhance the efficiency of port operations by
supporting establishment of a port community system, improving access to the port by rail and road, improving port layout, improving lake ports,
construction of a new RoRo terminal at Gerezani Creek, and in the long run incorporates large scale investments in modernization of Berths 1-7,
channel dredging and widening, construction of Kisarawe Inland Cargo Station, construction of Berths 13 & 14 and Kurasini Oil Jetty. The overall
outcome indicator is total throughput per annum in millions of tons, targeted at 13 million tons in 2013/14 and 18 million tons in 2015/16.
Transport Sector
Investment
Programme (I&II)
In the road subsector, there are two main projects accounting for half of the total investments, DSM-Morogoro Express Way and DSM outer ring road.
The remainder of the program consists of upgrading of remaining unpaved roads along the Corridor, decongestion of Dar es Salaam roads, and
clearance of a backlog of maintenance. DSM-Morogoro Express Way is expected to be private sector financed, DSM roads are receiving on-going JICA
assistance, and maintenance will probably benefit from increased Road Fund revenues. The overall outcome indicator is the time it takes for a truck to
reach Mwanza, Rusumo, and Kabanga from Dar es Salaam. The target is set at 76 hours in FY 2013/14, and at 60 hours in FY 2015/16.
The BRN Initiative Transport is a very ambitious program. It is subject to two main constraints in its implementation, funding and implementation
capacity. Both of them will be in short supply. If the targets were fully achieved in the three subsectors, the impact on the transport sector would be
enormous. Even if they were partially achieved, the impact would be significant.
2.3 Main challenges
TSIP II is an integrated transport system development plan encompassing the rail, ports, and airport subsectors besides the road subsector. In recent
years, it is evident that there is an increasing proportion of budgetary allocations for the non-road subsectors even though they are still at very
modest levels in relation to the subsectors’ investment needs. There are a number of potential PPPs that are promising to attract large scale private
investments. The challenge is to create a business climate conducive to private investments with the critical and catalytic Government investments to
18 18/03/14
be accompanied by appropriate policies and partnerships.
The arrears in the TANROADS payments to contractors and consultants have been disrupting transport sector budgetary processes for sometimes
now, posing a threat to the public financial management of TANROADS and the Central Government. The arrears will continue to emerge as long as
the TANROADS on-going projects are not covered by budgetary allocations for the road subsector. This imbalance stems from the unfunded contracts
signed in the past. There is still a large backlog of such contracts to be dealt with over the next few years.
At the end of the last fiscal year, arrears (called “outstanding payments” by TANROADS) stood at TSH 376 billion according to the TANROADS Quarterly
Report. This is more than double the TSH 155 billion at the beginning of the fiscal year. The Government appears to have substantially paid down the
outstanding arrears by the end of the fiscal year with the proceeds from external commercial borrowings. However, the emergency of new arrears
resulted in a net increase of TSH 221 billion during the last fiscal year.
An ambitious BRN! Initiative in the transport sector has a total funding requirement of TSH 3.8 trillion over the next two to three years, of which two
thirds, TSH 2.5 trillion or TSH 1.2 to 0.8 trillion per year, are to be sourced from the Government budget. The sum of total development budgets of
MOW and MOT for the current fiscal year is TSH 1.2 trillion, and it would appear that a substantial part of that represents investments in the Central
Corridor, including DSM-Chalinze-Morogoro Express Way, Manyoni – Tabora road, other Central Corridor road projects, TRL, and DSM port, thus
covering a substantial part of the BRN financing requirements.
Nonetheless, a substantial financing gap remains in the current budget cycle on account of the BRN Initiative in transport, which will have to be filled
as part of the sector-wide financing gap. The transport sector is already underfunded due to the existing unfunded contractual obligations and
sizeable arrears in payments to contractors and consultants. A shortfall of budgetary resources before the BRN Initiative Transport is forecast on the
order of TSH 800 billion on the basis of the approved MOW budget and the contractual obligations falling due this year. Besides, outstanding arrears
totalled TSH 376 billion at the beginning of this fiscal year.
In dealing with this issue, NAO conducted an EU funded external audit of TANROADS focusing on the committed and on-going projects. The IMF
engaged in some dialogue with the Government in the context of PSI and SCF. The Government was committed to producing a comprehensive
strategy to clear arrears once and for all by the end of last fiscal year. Such a strategy had not emerged by then. However, since then there has been
considerable progress.
LGTP II provides a framework for rural road development for a five year period beginning FY 2012/13, a vital input into the stated Government priority
of shared growth enshrined in MKUKUTA II, FYDP, and NTP. Yet, there is no Government funding commensurate with the accorded priority. LGA
budget for roads on an approval basis totalled TSH 127.6 billion during FY 2012/13, which was entirely dependent on the Road Fund as the modest
Government funds for rehabilitation and upgrading had been phased out towards the end of TSIP I. Thus, while there was a substantial allocation for
maintenance there was no allocation at all for upgrading and rehabilitation except the 10% allowance in the Road Fund allocation for that purpose or
TSH13 billion.5
5
The Road Fund, whose revenue comes mostly from the fuel levy, is basically for maintenance of roads. The Road Fund revenue is 70% allocated to trunk and regional roads and 30 percent to
LGA roads. However, 10% of the latter may be allocated to capital development.
19 18/03/14
As there is no direct allocation for LGTP II in this year’s budget, 3% of Road Fund revenue increases (30%*10%) or approximately TSH 5 billion will be
available for capital development projects for urban, district, and feeder roads under LGAs. Total availability will be approximately TSH 18 billion.
Donor assistance is gathering momentum involving DFID, USAID, EU and JICA. However, these budgetary prospects represent much less than half of
TSH 86 billion in the LGTP II financing plan. The GoT should complement its commitment to this important MKUKUTA priority by pledging significant
budgetary resources for LGTP II
2.4 Key elements of dialogue
The urgent policy issue pertains to clearance of arrears to set the stage for implementation of the BRN Initiatives. A comprehensive approach would
consist of both sector and macro interventions. Tackling the fundamental cause of contractual obligations exceeding budgetary allocations should
include, at sector level:
1. No new contract signed unless it is top priority and funded (already in place with TANROADS and the Ministry of Works).
2. Realistic forward operational planning (two to three years but with focus on the first fiscal year of the planning cycle) for execution of the road
subsector budget, taking into account budgetary resources, flows of donor funds, works to be performed as per contractual obligations, new top
priority projects such as BRN! Initiative and any private sector investments under PPPs. The objective is to prevent emergence of further arrears.
At the 7th Joint Transport Sector Review last year the Ministry of Works announced a four point measure for arrears as follows. These are important
decisions, and need to be followed up on.
1. Mobilize resources and clear all road works outstanding claims,
2. Priority on budget allocations in FY 2014/15 will be focused on the ongoing contracts,
3. No new contracts that are 100 percent GOT financed will be signed,
4. Ensure that prompt payments are made for all certified certificates from contractors and consultants to avoid interest charges.
At macro level, the large and systemic arrears are a serious threat to PFM principles. A follow up is needed on the GoT commitment to creating a
central monitoring unit for arrears and implementing a comprehensive strategy including establishing the stock of expenditure arrears through
stocktaking, verification and proper classification of the verified unpaid claims, and developing and implementing an arrears liquidation strategy.
3- Energy
3.1 Budget Analysis
In 2012/13, this sector witnessed a large increase in actual expenditures compared to the approved budget in 2012/13 as when adjusting for transfers
to TANESCO, recurrent expenditures were 370% higher than the approved budget while development expenditures were 53% lower than approved
budget.
In 2013/14, spending in the energy sector is set to increase further driven by both the costly Emergency Power Program - EEP (including clearance of
arrears) and the need to scale up investment in the energy sector. Going forward, the Government is committed to scale up the investment program
under the BRN Energy KRA. However, the energy sector remains in financial distress. TANESCO continues to face financial difficulty and, as shown in
the size of transfers from the Government budget, it carries a substantial financial burden and risks for the Government’s fiscal framework. To date,
20 18/03/14
the gap between revenues and costs has been partially met by transfers from the central Government and commercial borrowing by TANESCO. In
2014 and 2015 this gap will be however reduced thanks to an officially announced increase of tariffs by an average of 40%.
3.2 Progress
Lack of reliable, affordable and sustainable energy services continues to be a critical constraint to poverty alleviation and socio-economic
development. Tanzania's energy sector is characterised by low electricity access rates and by the reliance on biomass as a source of energy (fuel wood
and charcoal accounts for more than 90% of total). Electricity access rates remain among the lowest in the world, particularly in rural areas where it is
estimated below 10%. Despite the increase in number of connections (7.5% on an yearly basis over the last decade), the number of customers served
by the power utility TANESCO is still below one million, and electricity consumption per capita remains very low (97kWh/capita in 2012).
The increase in generation capacity over the last decade has mostly relied on fossil fuels. Renewable sources such as hydro, which accounted for 79%
of generation capacity in 2003, reportedly accounted for only 32% of total generation in 20136, while gas and oil account for most of the balance. The
GoT plans to further diversify the energy mix to strengthen energy security and limit reliance on hydropower generation. The 5YDP, Power System
Master Plan and BRN Initiative set out the ambitious objective to bring electricity generation capacity from the current 1170 MV to 2780 MV by 2015,
and to expand citizen's access to electricity to 30% by the same year.
3.3 Main challenges
The fast increase in demand, coupled with ineffective generation planning and recurrent hydrology challenges within the water basins sustaining the
existing hydro power plants, have combined to create a generation gap and persistent power shortages. Between 2008 and 2010 power interruptions
to Tanzanian industries increased by almost 20% to a total of 26 hours/month7. This cost the Tanzanian economy more than USD 500 million. To
address the problem the power utility TANESCO had to procure in 2011 more than 300 MW of expensive emergency power generation capacity,
based on fossil fuels. This has increased drastically the generation costs which have not been compensated by a sufficient increase in power tariffs.
Today's average tariff of 195 TSH/kWh compares to an average cost of energy sold of around 300 TSH/kWh. This has resulted in TANESCO
accumulating operating losses of more than USD 300 million in 2012, compared to revenues of only USD 536 million8. As a result, a considerable level
of Government subsidies to the national utility will be needed over the next few years.
The recent increase of electricity tariffs (January 2014) will improve the financial viability of the sector. In the long term, this financial stability should
contribute to reducing poverty, though three channels: accelerate growth by removing energy constraints; diversify the power supply mix to
strengthen the resilience of Tanzania’s power supply; and provide increased generation to put in place the first step towards an improvement in
energy access and ensuring lower costs in the medium term. In addition, it will be necessary for the GoT to facilitate the good management of natural
gas revenues in the long term to ensure shared prosperity from these revenues and potentially increased development spending.
6
JESR 2013
Confederation of Tanzanian Industries
8 World Bank
7
21 18/03/14
3.4 Key elements of dialogue
A key element of dialogue is to prepare the country for the natural gas economy (e.g. gas regulatory framework policy, investments in the gas sector)
and establish strong foundations to take advantage of this potential resource wealth and maximize benefits for Tanzania.
The financial sustainability of the national power utility, TANESCO, including the adoption of a subsidy policy (2014) and the committed roadmap for
energy sector reform (publication in early 2014) are highlighted subjects of dialogue with national authorities.
One of the main challenges / dialogue points in the sector is that there are still high energy losses in Transmission and Distribution Systems. This
alarming situation called for a need to improve capacity of preventive maintenance of TANESCO staff so as to take the necessary remedies to reduce
power interruptions and minimize the losses, which also address TANESCO’s financial matters.
4- Private Sector Development
4.1- Budget Analysis
Not applicable.
4.2- Progress
Despite the concerns around the business environment facing the private sector, enterprises believe that 2013’s prospects for the economy are better
than 2012, and that 2014 will be even better than 20139.
The Prime Minister’s Office has made welcome progress towards developing a draft “National Private Sector Development Policy “, which rightly
describes the private sector in Tanzania as remaining “at an infant stage” with trade and services predominating. While having an emphasis on
increasing competitiveness and stimulating markets, there needs to be prioritisation around the challenges to private sector development in the final
document.
There are positive moves forward on land tenure regularisation and transparency with an active Minister of Lands in the forefront, mobilising the
Ministry to improve delivery, and, where required, to work closely with development partners to make progress on this key issue;
Also, Tanzania made trading across borders faster by implementing the Pre-Arrival Declaration (PAD) system and electronic submission of customs
declarations.
The game-changers, however, will be access to new energy sources and the addressing of key infrastructure obstacles including ports and roads.
Concerns will remain around how costly trading and transport costs are, and whether Tanzania as a country will become more open compared to
9 KPMG/World
Bank survey of Tanzania’s top 100 Mid-Size Enterprises.
22 18/03/14
other countries (its openness ratio is about average).
4.3 Main challenges
The private sector in Tanzania faces a number of significant constraints which require significant domestic and external investment to overcome,
notably around the provision of power, and the availability of adequate infrastructure (ports and roads). However, a frequently reported theme from
the private sector, the Government itself, and international partners is the surprising lack of progress on achieving an investment climate that will
enable and encourage domestic and international investment at an increased scale. A common view is that Tanzania’s development potential is not
being reached due to hindrances from the bureaucracy, and continued over-regulation of the private sector.
Recent Doing Business Surveys (2012 & 2013 covering 185 countries) show that Tanzania has fallen back slightly in the rankings from 133 to 134. It has
become easier to start a business and register property measured by the number of procedures involved, time taken and cost involved. However, it
has become harder to get construction permits, protect investments, trade across borders, and to enforce contracts
Even setting aside the Doing Business Indicators, which have flaws as they are based on rankings rather than absolute ratings, procedures for
registering a company in Tanzania are described by businesses as cumbersome, non-transparent, time-consuming and arbitrarily applied, which
discourages companies from entering the formal sector and narrows the tax base. Those who have formalized face a huge regulatory burden in
addition to running their business. Small and medium sized companies are still disadvantaged – in terms of time and expense of complying with
regulations, access to information about how to comply with the formalities of running a business and also access to finance.
KPMG/World Bank
survey of Tanzania’s
top 100 Mid-Size
Enterprises
Regulation is uncoordinated and causes huge loss in revenue and jobs. An average smallholder entrepreneur in a 10 year business life cycle obeying
the law makes cash payments of USD 18,200 to the State for all licenses, permits, and approvals. He spends a total of 224 days in government offices
petitioning for them. During this time, earnings lost amount to USD 9,350.10
Despite consistent lobbying of government, there are still many examples of policies, regulations and fees being arbitrarily introduced without the
necessary consultation and rigorous analysis of their effect. Two significant examples occurring during 2013 included the proposed SIM card which
was put into the national budget without any consultation with the mobile phone industry, and the very sudden increases in tourism levies in
Zanzibar. On the other hand, there are regulations which are needed but which have not been enacted, such as the omission of ship tallying business
regulations in The Shipping Agency Act of 2002, which causes the Government to lose billions of dollars in revenue, due to lack of independent cargo
statistics11.
Corruption is still cited as a major problematic factor for conducting business in Tanzania. According to World Economic Forum (WEF) 2012/13, there
is still insufficient high level will to ensure that anti-corruption initiatives are enforced. Business executives give the Tanzanian judiciary's level of
independence from influences of government, citizens, or company a score of 3.5 on a 7-point scale (1 'heavily influenced' and 7 'entirely
10
11
BAR-Act Fact sheet – BEST-AC May 2012
TASHITA fact sheet – July 2013 BEST AC
23 18/03/14
Doing Business
Surveys
independent') and rate the legal framework for settling disputes and challenging the legality of government actions or regulation as 3.7 and 3.6
respectively12.
On trade, growth rates of 6%-7% p.a. for Tanzania, and the increased trade flows in the region are a big opportunity for Tanzania as the gateway
country. If the Port of Dar es Salaam were to become as efficient as Mombasa port, Tanzania would gain almost USD 1.8 billion per year (and $2.6bn
for Tanzania and her neighbours)13. However, continued poor infrastructure continues to act as a barrier for growth – both in terms of port capacity
and hinterland road and rail infrastructure to landlocked regions.
4.4 Key elements of dialogue
BEST-AC
World Bank Economic
update
Concerns are emphasised around the lack of progress on achieving an investment climate in Tanzania which offers an enabling environment to both
domestic and international businesses to invest and grow the private sector, itself the engine of growth in all countries in the modern age. Set against
the challenges noted above, 2013 has brought forward a re-invigorated Tanzania Private Sector Foundation, with a new Board representing an active
voice on behalf of the private sector. TPSF itself has tried to re-start the working committees identified as part of the “Road Map” under the original
Business Environment Strengthening Tanzania programme. The development of a Private Sector Development Policy should also offer a potential
springboard for change. The “investment climate” is a cross-cutting issue, and a complex one, but should perhaps form the centre of one of the future
“labs” for the Big Results Now Initiative. Given the lack of results to date, the investment climate deserves the close attention and energy that a Lab
could provide.
The BRN Initiative itself has provided an opportunity to brainstorm with the private sector around what are the imperative steps to achieve economic
development. Early 2014, the President of the United Republic of Tanzania has decided to prioritise fixing the business climate challenges, and to
elevate the search for solutions and action plans through a dedicated Business Environment Lab following the Big Results Now! methodology. Detailed
plans for priority actions, complete with allocation of responsibilities and timeframes for implementation, will be reported to the next Tanzania
National Business Council meeting in March, 2014.
Cluster II: Quality of Life and Social Well Being
5- Education
5.1 Budget Analysis
World Economic
Forum: The Global
Competitiveness
Report 2012-2013
12
13
In 2012/13, the execution rate accelerated from 79% to 94%, but the disparity in the funds allocation across districts remains high, perpetrating
unequal sector performance as well as a sense of inequity among districts. To be noted that the low execution rates at secondary level continue to
hint at on-going issues of absorption/implementation capacity for construction activities which were raised in both the 2011 and 2012 education
World Economic Forum: The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013
World Bank Economic update – Tanzania – May 2013
24 18/03/14
sector RBAs. The Government should investigate reasons for the large geographical inequality in regional spending per student and prioritise greater
equity in resource allocation14.
Education remains the largest spending sector but its share of total government budget has reduced to 19.6% in 2013/14 budget, down from 21.2% in
total Government budget in 2012/13. Education sector spending as a share of GDP remains relatively high for a developing country at 5.9%, but
budget execution needs to continue improving to ensure results on the ground. Transfers to local governments should intensify, from 65% to 70% of
total sector expenditures, driven by an increased wage bill and development spending.
5.2 Progress
There was a rapid expansion in the number of children attending school between 2002 and 2010. Since then the number of children enrolling in
primary school has plateaued, and is not keeping up with population growth. Using household surveys, the Global Monitoring Report 2013 estimates15
that Tanzania (among 14 other countries) had more than 1 million children out of school in 2011. Service delivery remains poor, with low quality, high
inequity and significant inefficiencies.
Now most children (boys and girls) go to primary school, but quality has been declining rapidly and has become a critical publically acknowledged
issue with massive drops in end of cycle examination results. In 2012 just 31% of primary students passed, down from 58% in 2011. However results
for 2013 suggest the pass rate has rebounded back to 51%, which is within the range observed in the 2007 – 2010 period. Factors that have caused
these wide fluctuations in the national pass rate have not been accurately determined, but suggest the national pass rate is not a reliable overall
measure of performance.
It was agreed with government that the number of district councils with insufficient teachers would be a key performance indicator in 2013, this has
trended downwards since 2010, linked to positive actions on teacher deployment. 2013 witnessed a significant increase in teacher recruitment
nationally, but more action is still needed to support remote area recruitment and retention.
Enrolment in secondary school has tripled since 2006, but the majority of the 2,500 new rural secondary schools have inadequate facilities and underqualified teachers that threaten to undermine the service provided. Secondary Form IV results in 2012 were so low that the exam board NECTA
(National Examinations Council of Tanzania) was demanded by the Government to re-grade them; even then results were 10% lower than 2011, with
56% completely failing. Examination data for 2013 is likely to be released early in 2014. In tertiary education there has been more promising sign, with
continued expansion of students following degree programmes up to over 147,000 in 2012 and with good progress to automate the admissions
process and to collect Higher Education loan repayments to lower public costs.
The GoT has now recognised that ‘business as usual’ will not deliver the step-change required to improve education: new methods of working are
required to achieve the desired acceleration in delivery of results. The GoT has expressed political commitment to education as the Minister of
Education signed an Education Reform Compact with development partners in late 2012 that emphasised the need for reforms in three priority areas:
teacher capability, assessment and accountability. In parallel the transformational government results delivery model known in Tanzania as BRN!
14
This is currently being done across sectors by the PER study on fiscal inequities. The consultants are in the field from 10-28 February and it is expected a final report to be ready by April 2014.
15
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0022/002256/225660e.pdf
25 18/03/14
Initiative has commenced. Education was chosen as one of six priority government sectors that has benefitted from the rollout out of an intensive
eight weeks ‘Delivery Lab’ in early 2013, with 35 diverse sector experts to diagnose problems and analyse constraints of the education system. A set of
initiatives that were considered likely to generate rapid improvements in pass rates in primary and secondary exams have been developed and
implementation started. This constitutes the Education BRN! Initiative programme that may have higher levels of political support than education
sector plans and budgets discussed in formal education sector dialogue structures.
A major grant for USD 94.8 million was submitted to the Global Partnership for Education in September 2013 and is expected to be approved later in
2013, releasing funds for a major programme of quality related support in primary and non-formal education. This is anticipated to align with and
support some elements of the BRN! Initiative programme, contributing to a turnaround of the quality deficit in education service provision. USAID’s
national early grade learning assessment sample survey being implemented in late 2013 will also help to benchmark and monitor education quality
and levels of progress in coming years.
The joint education sector review is expected to be conducted in early 2014, at which annual 2013 indicators and trends will be released.
5.3 Main challenges
The large scale early learning assessment UWEZO that found only 30% of grade 3 students could read a basic Kiswahili language story, suggesting a
system that is in crisis, with low levels of core competency acquisition impeding progression and leading to low morale and disinterest from students
and teachers alike. The year 2013 has not witnessed strikes and disruptions observed in 2012, but major concerns remain over limited time on task by
some teachers while present at school. Enrolment is now stagnating, despite continued rapid demographic growth and a population of which almost
half is under the age of 1516.
A World Bank secondary education sub sector IDA loan and the nascent BRN! Initiative have made only minor inroads to address the situation
described above in secondary schools, while bureaucratic and capacity constraints have severely impeded implementation. The gender imbalance in
tertiary education, unlike the basic education system, remains skewed heavily in favour of boys (62%) and the issue of quality of learning is also a
potential concern.
5.4 Key elements of dialogue
16

Lack of HR reforms and implementation of pay and incentives strategy to motivate new teachers into the profession and to deploy and teach
regularly in remoter schools, especially qualified science and mathematics teachers in secondary schools.

Delayed, overage enrolment into Standard 1 and limited access to pre-primary school continues to inhibit learning of younger children and hinders
completion of primary schools prior to teenage years and expectations to work and / or raise families.

Continued limited release of funds for capitation grants to school, well below approved levels and the related practice of withholding centrally
40% of primary funds for books that do not appear to be distributed.
2012 Demographic Census preliminary findings.
26 18/03/14
6- Water and Sanitation
6.1 Budget Analysis
In 2012/13 the water sector experienced a very low budget execution rate, at 56%17. The low execution rate together with already a small share in the
total budget of round 4.4%18 means that limited fund were spent on water and hence poor quality of service, including access and reliability.
The share of public resources going to the sector in the approved total budget in 2013/14 is projected to decline further to 4.3%. However, LGAs water
projects and programs are prioritized with projected increase in water budgets in LGAs. After declining for the past three years, budget allocation on
water programs and projects in the regions and LGAs has increased by 5% in 2013/14 compared to 2012/13. This illustrates a positive commitment to
decentralization and is largely driven by the increase in the development budget through the rural water and sanitation program.
Analysis has indicated a reasonable alignment of the sector approved budget with key strategic objectives and projects in the sector as set out in the
WSDP, MKUKUTA and BRN. However, there is a significant funding gap implementing the BRN Initiative in water (44% gap). Furthermore, there is
concern about the timely availability of funds to implementing units to carry out development projects in rural areas. There is also limited attention to
allocations for operation and maintenance of the water supply infrastructure system
6.2 Progress
A positive progress has been noted in the water sector. Progress is recorded in the sector’s four components under the Water Sector Development
Programme (WSDP) with regards to management of water resources, supply of water to rural and urban communities and institutional capacity
building. The preparation of Integrated Water Resources Management and Development (IWRMD) plans in all the 9 basins of the country is advancing
with final draft and interim reports submitted for four out of the 9 basins. In the FY 2012/13 5,053 water points were constructed and rehabilitated in
rural areas serving 1.26million people. , around 24,904 improved toilets and 20,224 hand washing facilities. In urban areas a total of 41,374 household
connections for water supply were made in 19 regional centres and Dar es Salaam area in the FY 2012/13 out of the target of 70,000 HH connections.
This brought the total household connections to 217,374 an increase of 440,000 beneficiaries during the year. A Management Information System
(MIS) connecting all IAs has been operationalized for managing budget, finance, procurement and contracts. A water point mapping exercise has been
concluded and the result served as base line for the RWS-BRN.
Basin Water Offices continue to monitor trends of water resources and getting more involved in water related matters. Preparation of integrated
water management plans has also made progress. However, the revenues and financial allocations to Basin water offices are insufficient, thereby
compromising the capacity and ability of Basin water offices to effectively improve water use regulation, better monitoring of water withdrawals from
rivers and wells and enforce stricter penalties for illegal water abstraction.
Supply of water to rural communities shows signs of improvement. This is a result of an increased political attention, BRN Initiative's focus and closer
stakeholder monitoring. The water point mapping exercise conducted under the WSDP has been instrumental for determining a more realistic
17
Budget execution was 48% in 2011/12
on average in the past three years
183%
27 18/03/14
baseline for the BRN Initiative. Access to safe water in rural areas has now been revised from 57% to 40%, (baseline March 2013 in the context of BRN
Initiative). The implementation of the 10-villages schemes has been accelerated and the development of new schemes has increased. Decentralisation
process specifically planning of rural projects by closely involving responsible Ministries and further cascading responsibilities downwards to LGAs has
proven to be an effective arrangement to speed-up implementation and is bearing first results. Nevertheless, the coordination between the Ministry
of Water as the institution responsible for overall sector monitoring and provision of technical assistance and PMO-RALG as institution with mandate
to support the LGAs administratively is key for further improvements in the rural sub-sector. BRN Initiative targets are considered to be very ambitious
and possibly unachievable as disbursements of Government funds (approved budget) are delayed.
Big projects to provide supply to Dar es Salaam city have attained a momentum and seem to be in good implementation stage. Improvements are still
necessary with regards to the access to clean and safe water in small and district towns19, the supply with improved sanitation and the pro-poor focus
of investments. Enhanced attention is required towards improvement in operational efficiency of the utilities. In particular the NRW rate (due to
physical and commercial losses) in almost all urban utilities is high leading to financial instability of the utilities (NRW in DAWASA is as high as 56%).
Institutions involved in the water sector development have improved processes and systems for attaining management efficiencies. Noted
improvements are in the areas of program management, financial planning and management. Tracking and closer follow-up of funding flows and
monitoring of results has also improved. Nevertheless the operationalization of the Management Information System (MIS) still needs to be
enhanced. Implementation of important projects that have been hugely delayed such as the Water Point Mapping has made good progress and at this
stage needs to be sustained by efficient updating procedures.
6.3 Main challenges
1. Lack of adequate accountability (vertical and horizontal) systems in government and weaknesses in staff’s technical capacity results in poor service
delivery and value for money (cross cutting issue with regards to public service reform).
2. Despite improvements in decentralization, collaborative arrangements (horizontal and vertical) between the central (Ministries) and local
government (LGAs) continues to be weak. This lack of collaboration is hampering attaining speedy progress.
3. Although the preparations of integrated water resources management and development plans are at advanced stage, most of the basin water
offices lack financial and human resources capacity to monitor regulate and enforce water use in the basins. This can be a major obstacle to
implement the IWRMD plans and improve water resources use and management in the basin in the face of growing competition of water use
between sectors and users
4. Although there is a noted improvement at automating processes by improving/ introducing new IT based monitoring systems such as Water Point
Mapping and Sector MIS, adoption of these systems is not progressing according to expectations. This can be a major impediment to improve and
sustain M&E systems and the transparency in the sector.
5. Spending on rural projects in the sector is comparatively lower than urban and on water resources programs. However it is encouraging to note
19Currently
ca. 53% (to be confirmed by the Joint Supervision Mission)
28 18/03/14
Water Sector
Development
Programme
that in the past two years the low spending pattern has been increasing with a steady and sharp upward trend. With BRN! Initiative’s close focus
and political commitment, there is a good indication of further improvements in spending on rural projects and pro-poor focus.
6.4 Key elements of dialogue
Selected key elements of dialogue with the GoT would focus on:
 Accountability in government systems has continued to remain poor without signs of improvement. Such weak systems are affecting service
delivery (cross cutting issue with regards to public service reform and public financial management).
 Severe delays in the availability and disbursement of Government funds for the rural sector (BRN Initiative focus) endanger the BRN Initiative and
question the commitment of GoT.
 Effective and enhanced systems (MIS and Water Point Mapping) need to be applied to ensure efficient reporting, monitoring and evaluation of the
implemented measures. This needs the full commitment and support of the Management of the Ministries involved as it can be considered as part
of a “change management programme”
 Water resource management and development needs to be coordinated among competing sectors to avoid future water insecurity.
7- Health, Nutrition and Social Protection
7.1 Budget Analysis
Unlike 2011/12, the execution of the health budget was strong, reaching almost 90% in 2012/13. Unlike 2011/12, execution of the 2012/13 budget
was consistently strong across both foreign (88.3%) and local (89.9%) health spending. This is a welcome improvement from 2011/12 where more
than 90% of GoT discretionary budget was executed but less than 40% of the foreign budget was executed.
The 2013/14 approved budget of 8.7% of total expenditures for the health sector represents a significant decline compared to 2012/1320. The share of
local (including GBS) funding to the sector is also expected to decline from approximately 8% in FY 12/13 to 6% in FY 13/14. Declining shares of
Government own discretionary resources to the health sector suggest a lower priority given to this sector, as indicated by its exclusion in the first
round of BRN ‘labs’. Financial sustainability therefore remains a concern, particularly because non-pooled donor funding (which is not necessarily
predictable or system strengthening focused) appears to be replacing local and pooled donor funding to invest in the health system. Geographic
inequality in health block grant distribution amongst LGAs remains substantial.
20
Health sector is currently not included in the BRN National Key Results Areas
29 18/03/14
7.2 Progress
The Health Sector Strategic Plan III “Partnership for Delivering the Health MDGs” (HSSP III) is the principle GoT policy document for the health sector.
The achievement of the health MDGs is a central focus of the HSSP III. The GoT additionally prioritizes access to quality primary health care through
MMAM (Primary Health Sector Development Program). The HSSPIII mid-term assessment has been undertaken and the report was presented at the
next Joint Annual Health Sector Review (JAHSR) in October 2013. Policy priorities have been agreed upon by GoT and DPs. However, planning for
HSSPIV has slightly stalled as the activity was left out of the latest MTEF budget.
As widely reported, over the last decade Tanzania has achieved a significant decline in infant and under five mortality rates. Improvements in
immunization coverage, vitamin A supplementation coverage, as well as in malaria prevention and treatment, have contributed to these declines. If
the pace of decline is maintained it is likely that Tanzania will meet at least the associated MDG targets for infant and child mortality (TDHS). However,
the situation of maternal health is entirely different and it is unlikely that Tanzania will achieve its maternal health or neonatal HSSP III targets or MDG
5. This is particularly troubling as progress in addressing maternal and neonatal health perhaps speaks most directly to the quality of health service
provided through the national health system.
Important gains have also been made in the treatment and control of HIV/AIDS, Malaria, and Tuberculosis:
a) malaria prevalence declined from 18% (2008) to 9% (2012)
b) HIV treatment from 342,209 (March 2012) to 412,772 (March 2013)
c) HIV testing and receiving results from 1,613,120 (March 2012) to 2,003,458 (March 2013)
d) Improved TB screening index tool
e) Improve TB lab services - introduced two Gene Xpert machines
f) Improved diagnosis of multi-drug resistance TB (MDRTB)
Investment in Human Resources of Health has been a clear GoT priority over the last few years - both as articulated and as resourced. It is estimated
that health PE spending increased by almost a third over the last year. The overall gap in health workers has also reduced over the last few years.
Drug availability varies widely amongst LGAs. Amongst districts in Pwani, 10 tracer drugs were available continuously in 54% facilities in Kisarawe DC;
while continuously available in only 5% of facilities in Bagamoyo DC.
Despite striking improvement in many health indicators over the last decade, there has been poor progress in improving the nutritional status of
children and women in Tanzania. The high levels (42%) of stunting in the country, affecting over 3 million children, constitute a silent emergency.
Although inequalities in child nutrition continue to persist then under-nutrition is not limited to the poorest or least educated parts of the population.
E.g. even in the wealthiest quintile one out of four children are stunted and in households where the mother is well educated (secondary +) about one
out of five children are stunted, an indication that there are systemic issues related to the direct causes and underlying factors in Tanzania which must
be addressed. Hence both direct nutrition specific interventions and “nutrition sensitive” interventions are needed across a range of sectors.
The Government of Tanzania, at the highest level, has committed publicly to the scale up of nutrition interventions across sectors. Recently, efforts
have been made by the Government to better plan and coordinate nutrition activities in Tanzania. To ensure that nutrition specific and sensitive
interventions are implemented at local government level, the Government had started deploying Nutritionist at District council (this is still work on
30 18/03/14
progress). Also, President Jakaya Kikwete launched the Tanzania food fortification campaign to enrich the lives of Tanzanians. Though not mandatory,
the private sector is now fortifying foods following development of food fortification standards, and the legal framework by the Tanzania Bureau of
Standard (TBS) and Tanzania Food and Drug Authority (TFDA) respectively.
Progress has also been seen in the area of social protection in recent months. Most notably with the launch by the Prime Minister of the 2nd National
Plan of Action for Most Vulnerable Children in February 2013. Currently, GOT with external support, is developing and management and information
system database for the vulnerable children. Expected completion date in first quarter of the new calendar year. The earlier launch, in August 2012,
of a new Productive Social Safety Net Programme, anchored in the President's Office around Tanzania Social Action Fund, TASAF was reviewed for
operalization in September and stakeholders agreed that the a jump start is needed for the scale up in-place of a phased approach. Training and
systems have been highlighted as immediate gaps, especially for the cash transfer. The effort is partially funded but some funding gap remains and the
GoT is actively seeking support.
Partnership for
Delivering the Health
MDGs
The GOT has set aside TSH 30 million last fiscal year (total need is 200 million USD) for TASAF, which has been approved by the GOT but the social
protection policy remains in Parliament and has not been approved. Both initiatives remain against the backdrop of an absence of an overarching
policy framework for social protection and little indication of financial commitments on the part of the government.
7.3 Main challenges
Despite improvements in a number of health indicators, without significant acceleration of efforts, especially related to strengthening the health
system and the public delivery of health service, it is likely that many of the remaining health-related MDG targets will not be met. The important
commitments expressed at the national level, as contained in MKUKUTA II and the HSSPIII, are not being fully realized. The overall prioritization of the
health sector as a share of total GoT budget continues to diminish. Inequities in both health inputs and outputs remain persistent; with the rural and
poor suffering the most.
Health as a share of GoT’s FY 12/13 budget, including HIV/AIDS, stands at 8.5% (RBA FY 12/13). Achieving the Abuja target of 15%, specifically
identified as a priority in the HSSPIII, seems to be increasingly unrealistic. The HBF has also decreased from USD 115 million (FY 11/12) to USD 80
million (FY13/14). Further decrease is expected if more partners opt out. Moreover, in real per capita terms, allocation to health declined by 10.2%
between FY 11/12 and FY 12/13 (RBA FY12/13) It should be noted that one of the reasons for the decline in the health sector budget is a reduction in
on-budget foreign funding (i.e. Global Fund).
There is significant geographic inequality in per capita health spending at the LGA level: an estimated 7-fold difference between the best and worst
resourced (RBA). Again, it is worth noting that data at the LGA level has significant limitations, including related to published data on PMO-RALG
website and the timely receipt of LGA Approved Budget. The current allocation formula for the district basket grant (and council health block grant)
was designed to ensure equitable distribution of resources. However concerns have arisen over whether this aim is being met. A review of this
formula was undertaken in 2013 by an external consultant and the findings remain to be discussed by GoT. In the meantime, MoHSW has agreed to
update the data variables of the formula for application to the district basket grant in 2014/15.
With regard to human resources, despite overall improvements in resourcing and staffing, inequitable distribution of health workers, poor LGA level
data, and the “opacity” of the wage bill continue to remain significant challenges to identifying whether GoT commitment to supporting HRH is
31 18/03/14
reaping maximum benefit (particularly for the poor). Recognizing significant data limitations, geographically there is significant variation between the
best and worst resourced and staffed LGAs: a 13 fold difference in per capita Health PE and a 30 fold difference in per capita nurse density (HRHIS).
Moreover, there is some evidence, recognizing significant data limitations, that inequality in per capita heath PE spending amongst LGAs has
worsened in recent years. Of note this period, was a National HRH Conference lead by President Kikwete with representation across other ministries
(MOF, POPSM, PMORALG) and subsequent commitments then made at the global conference: 1) reduce vacancy rates; 2) increase available financing
for pay and incentive policy; and 3) develop and operationalize a national task sharing policy (all by 2017 and focusing on hard to reach areas).
Given the pronounced disparity, and often absence, in health inputs (health financing, HRH, Drugs etc.) amongst and within LGAs, it is perhaps not
surprising that only half of births in Tanzania take place in a health facility. The poor availability of Basic Emergency Obstetric Care at primary health
care facilities is particularly troubling.
Geographic and income-related disparities play a prominent role here. Women in the wealthiest quintile are 3 times more likely than the poorest to
deliver in a health facility; similarly women in Dar es Salaam region are 3 times more likely to deliver in a health facility than women in Kigoma. The
disparities around access to skilled health providers during delivery are strikingly similar: a 3-fold difference between the wealthiest and poorest, and
that between the best served (Dar) and least served (Rukwa) regions (TDHS). Moreover, women living in rural areas are half as likely to deliver in a
health facility or to be attended by a skilled health provider as those living in urban areas. Part of the Mid –Term assessment included a community
perspectives study indicated that the community’s utilization is linked with perceptions of quality and availability. EPI and HIV services are seen as
working well, but otherwise, the sample held a high level of mistrust of services and service personnel. This seems linked to perceptions of uncalled
for out of pocket costs (for free services) and provider negative attitudes.
7.4 Key elements of dialogue
There is strong political leadership of the Ministry of Health and a new Minister, Deputy Minster and PS for Health put in place. The CMO has been
confirmed as permanent and the MOHSW leadership has verbally committed to filling the rest of the line manager and director acting or vacant
positions soon. Renewed dialogue will greatly improve over the next several months with the MOHSW as well as at PMO-RALG with the appointment
of a new Deputy PS for Health.
GoT’s willingness to include PAF indicator focused on improving equity in health staffing is welcome. Equitable service delivery alongside greater
prioritization of the sector is necessary to meet the GoTs expressed commitments to the MKUKUTA II objectives and the MDGs.
It is important that policy dialogue with the Government and private sector continues for mandatory food fortification. Important food vehicles for
consideration include edible oils, sugar, and wheat because these food-stuff are widely consumed by majority of Tanzanian.
The Government continued to implement behavioural change communication (BCC) with a special focus on 1000 days (reduction of stunting and
anemia). Also, the Government has included nutrition into the Tanzania Social Action Fund (TASAF III) Productive Social Safety Net project (PSSN) to be
scaled-up across the country by the year 2015. Through the Ministry of Health (MoH), Tanzania continued to implement nutrition specific
interventions. This includes maternal and child health nutrition (nutrition counselling, vitamin A, iron folate, and zinc supplementation) targeting
pregnant women and children under-five. Going forward, it is important that the Government start translating policies and guidelines to scaling-up
both nutrition specific and nutrition sensitive interventions and tracking progress towards reduction of chronic under-nutrition in Tanzania.
32 18/03/14
Underlying Principle 3
UP
Continually strengthened budgeting
and public financial management
systems
Summary
Assessment
Green
Key Concerns to Raise in Dialogue
(a) Budget Credibility
(1) The budget process delivers a budget which is not being realistic. Of particular concern are fiscal
expansion, inaccurate revenue forecasting and accumulation of arrears.
(2) PFMRP is engaging on all these issues but continued high level ownership is required.
(b) Legislative Reforms
A number of necessary legislative reforms are pending. These include VAT Act, Tax Administration Act,
amendments to Public Finance Act, Local Government Finance Act, new Loans and Guarantees Act, Treasury
Registrar Act and others. It is necessary that these changes are submitted to parliament as quickly as possible
in order to support increased revenue generation and better management of fiscal risks.
(c) Debt Sustainability & Fiscal Risk
(1) The institutional set up of the Debt Management Office is still pending. It is of high importance to finalize
the institutional set-up and to approve staff.
(2) Strengthening of the Treasury Registrar is critical to improve monitoring the fiscal risk posed by PA&OBs.
Conclusions:
The overall picture remains positive. It is evident that the budgeting and public financial management systems are continually being strengthened.
Several improvements are noted in the PEFA 2013 report. Aspects that have improved include:
• Effectiveness of internal audit,
• Effectiveness of payroll control,
• Annual budget process and
• Procurement oversight and external audit.
As noted by the PEFA report, there are multiple PFM weaknesses which contribute towards the lack of budget credibility. These include weaknesses in the budget preparation
system (over-budgeting in the development budget, under-budgeting in some areas of recurrent expenditure) and the budget execution system (cash rationing due to resource
uncertainty, lack of commitment controls). As a result expenditure arrears have been accumulating, which are paid out of budgets in following years at the expense of planned
service delivery. The following issues, which all impact directly on the credibility of the budget, require special attention:
• Weaknesses in cash flow management and payment arrears,
• Weaknesses in and non-compliance with internal control systems,
• Fiscal risks posed by Public Authorities and Other Bodies (PA &OB).
The pace of improvement may not be quick. PFM reforms are complex and influenced by manifold factors, some of them outside the control of the Ministry of Finance (MoF),
such as political pressure on the executive in regard to budget preparation and execution and heavy bureaucracy in the Tanzanian administration, i.e. legislative procedure,
adoption of regulations. It is clear that the PFM systems continue to be strengthened albeit slowly, and that the Government shows strong leadership in addressing
weaknesses highlighted in the PEFA 2013 .
33 18/03/14
Evidence Used in Assessment
The assessment of Public
Financial Management as an
Underlying principle was
completed in October 2013
based on the progress and trends
that have been evident in the
sector against a September 2013
baseline. The September 2013
baseline position is supported by
a current PEFA and results of the
recent PFMRP IV Supervision
Mission which took place from
September 16th to October 4th,
2013.
Assessment Narrative
The Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) Assessment 2013 report reveals significant improvement in strengthening PFM
Systems. Out of 31 PEFA Indicators (PIs), 12 ratings improved, 5 are in process of improving, 9 PIs have not changed and 2 have fallen. PFM
aspects that have improved include effectiveness of internal audit, annual budget process and legislative scrutiny, effectiveness of payroll
controls, procurement oversight and external audit. Significant PFM weaknesses remain in cash flow management and payment arrears,
internal controls (weak commitment controls and non-compliance with internal control systems), fiscal risk posed by Public Authorities and
Other Bodies (PA&OB), budget documentation and compliance with audit recommendations. Most of them impact directly on the
credibility of the budget. However, none of the results lead to the conclusion that a breach of the Underlying Principle is evident or that it is
at risk of a breach. It is evident that the budgeting and public financial management systems are continually being strengthened. Moreover,
government shows strong leadership in addressing existing weaknesses highlighted in the PEFA 2013 and has adapted the framework of
PFMRP IV during the recent Supervision Mission accordingly. However, pace of improvement may not be quick. PFM reforms are complex
and influenced by manifold factors, some of them outside the control of the Ministry of Finance (MoF). Such as political pressure on the
executive in regard to budget preparation and execution and heavy bureaucracy in the Tanzanian administration, i.e. legislative procedure,
adoption of regulations.
Revenue Management: Strengthened systems, processes and procedures for improving the operational capability of the revenue collection
Documents used for the
assessment include
PEFA 2013
OBI Report 2013/Open Budget
Survey 2012
PFMRP Supervision Mission
Report 2013
PFM RP Annual Progress Report
(July 2012 - June 2013)
BoT Monthly Economic Review,
December 2013
RBA 2013
In general revenue management is continually being strengthened.
i. Revenue performance fell short of estimated revenues by 11% and 7% during 2009/10 – 2010/11, and exceeded estimates by 3% in
2011/12. In 2012/13 revenue turnout was 16,3% of GDP (estimated 18,2%). In the 1st quarter of the current fiscal year 2013/14
domestic revenue fell short of 16,5%. The shortfall is partly explained by delays in the implementation of some revenue collection
on financial and communication services. Notwithstanding the revenue forecasting challenges posed by the global financial crisis
that started 2008, the average forecasting error during 2009/10 – 2011/11 fell to 7% from 8.3% during the previous fiscal years.
ii. Revenue collection has increased as a % of GDP in each of the last three years reaching 17.5% in 2011-12 from 16.2% in 2008/09. A
number of initiatives are underway which are expected to have a positive impact on revenue mobilization. These include the Tax
Administration Act, which targets a common tax collection procedure among different taxes collected by Tax Revenue Authority
(TRA). The tax base has also increased by more than 150% for Tax Identification Number (TIN)-registered tax payers and 60% for
VAT-registered tax payers between 2009/10 and 2012/13. However, tax exemptions increased sharply from 2.9% in 2010/11 to
4.3% of GDP in 2011/12 or from 15% of total revenue collection in 2009/10 to 27% in 2011/12. Government is currently revising the
VAT Act with support from IMF due to the numerous exemptions from it that impact on the tax base and reduce its efficiency while
making it more distortive. During the PFMRPIV Supervision Mission Government reported that the Bill would be sent to Cabinet in
November 2013. The Supervision Mission also identified a need for greater clarity of implications of the PER tax exemptions study
for the VAT Act. The study is expected to result in: a) the completion of the inventory of exemptions b) the development of a robust
tax exemptions data management/tracking mechanism, c) an assessment of the VAT refunds mechanism and recommendations to
improve it, and d) removing the discretionary powers from legislation.
iii. In regard to local government revenue, a study on revenue potential assessment for LGAs is been finalized by PMO-RALG. In order
to realise LGA revenue potential, LGAs are likely to require significant human resource and systems development support in order
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to realize optimal revenue collection levels.
iv. Resource mobilisation is one of the National Key Results Areas for the Big Results Now initiative which was launched by the
government in 2013. High level commitment to strengthened revenue management in the coming three years is regarded as highly
positive.
Budgeting and planning: Strengthened capacity of planning and budget management, including results and program based budgeting,
within MOF, MDAs and LGAs
Some Budgeting and planning capacities are improving but overall budget credibility remains weak.
i.
While aggregate revenue out-turn performance of GoT shows an improving trend, aggregate expenditure out-turn has tended to
fluctuate. The composition of expenditure out-turn presents a significant PFM weakness. As noted by the PEFA report, there are
multiple PFM weaknesses which contribute towards the lack of budget credibility. These include weaknesses in the budget
preparation system (i.e. over budgeting in the development budget, under-budgeting in some areas of recurrent expenditure) and
the budget executing system. Expenditure commitments are being entered into outside the approved budgets and cash availability.
As a result expenditure arrears have been accumulating, which are paid out of budgets in following years at the expense of planned
service delivery.This leads to frequent mid year budget reallocations which end up depriving some key sectors (i.e. health,
education, LGAs) of budget resources in favour of a few other MDAs while causing sometimes large deviations of executed budget
form initially allocated budget. The PFMRPIV Supervision Mission identified reform initiatives to address these weaknesses. At the
same time, it must be mentioned that there are several non-technical factors that impact on budget credibility and which are
beyond the control of the MoF, such legislative procedures and political pressure on budget planning and execution.
i. A new budget preparation calendar has been established in a very short timeframe. It is in effect for the preparation of the
2013/14 budget. In order to start the budget implementation from 1 st of July each fiscal year, the process has been brought
forward by 2 months. The calendar is clear and provides MDAs with sufficient time (up to 8 weeks) to prepare their budget
submissions and is generally adhered to Political involvement in the guidance on the preparation of budget submissions has
improved as the Cabinet approves the spending ceilings proposed by MoF and President’s Office Planning Commission
(POPC) for each MDA following scrutiny of the budget submissions prepared by MDAs on the basis of the Planning and
Budget Guidelines (PBGS). The PBGs are comprehensive and indicate a linkage to policy objective within a mediumperspective.
ii. Introduction of Government Finance Statistic (GFS) 2001 in 2009 and the preparation of a bridging table linking budget
classification codes to Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG) in 2012 mean that in principle budget formulation
and execution and reporting could be consistent with COFOG. However, the actual classification used in the different
budget related documents varies still considerably. That makes the tracking of budgeted expenditure on an administrative,
functional and economic classification basis difficult. Explanatory narrative in the summary tables in vol. II – IV of the budget
estimates could enhance the understanding of budget information provided to Parliament. The explanatory notes MoF
provides to MPs, explaining the budget codes and numbers could be made public.
iii. The transparency of the budget process continues to improve with citizen’s budget and budget books available on the GoT
website. For the first time in the fiscal year 2013/14 budget books were also published as submitted to Parliament at the
beginning of the budget session in June. Revenue estimates (Vol. I) have not been published. The document will only
become official after the President signs them (done after approval by Parliament). Tanzania’s OBI ratings have increased
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from 36% in 2008 to 45% in 2010 and then to 47% in 2012. However, further strengthening of fiscal transparency needs to
continue and would help add to the credibility of the budget, i.e. publication of the introduction of reports on the budgets
of the numerous semi-autonomous and autonomous bodies that receive funding from the budget and publication of
analytical work on the budget. Data which is published should be presented in an informative way to enable citizens to
compare budget and its execution.
iv. The Budget Division continues to make good progress towards the introduction of Program Based Budgeting (PBB) with an
action plan in place that will include a Policy Paper in order for the Cabinet to formally authorise the use of PBB. The PBB
tools (template, indicators, etc) are being used to capture information and working sessions with 8 pilot Ministries
(Ministries of Finance, Water, Works, Transports, Education, Health, Community Development and Agriculture) are in
progress. Following the pilot phase, the PBB will be gradually rolled out to MDAs, regions and LGAs (expected to be
completed by September 2016). Concerning LGAs, the compatibility of PBB with allocations based on formulae needs to be
looked into. The government has undertaken a study on budget allocation formulas but results were rejected. Study is
being reformulated to include the transition to PBB.
v. In-year budget reporting continues to improve. Each month, a report is generated from Integrated Financial Management
System (IFMS) within two weeks after the end of the month. Prior to 2011, there were delays in churning out
comprehensive central government flash reports due to not all MDAs being directly connected to IFMS. The situation has
improved significantly with all MDAs connected now directly through the central payment office in the ACGEN. The
existence of significant expenditure arrears accruing outside IFMS raises some questions over all-embracing quality of data
provided by the system since expenditure commitments reported in IFMIS do not cover the whole picture. The
interconnectivity of all MDAs through the Central Payment Office (CPO) over the last three years has seen some
improvement in data quality due to the connectivity allowing faster expenditure reconciliation between the CPO and MDAs.
Budget Execution: Improved utilization of public resources in a more effective, efficient and transparent manner
The lack of predictability in fund flow distort the execution of the budget, however, good progress has been made in areas of
procurement, payroll controls, debt management and consolidation of government’s cash balances.
i. Given the cash-constrained environment, predictability of fund flows has been weak. The cash rationing system implemented by
MoF ensures budget discipline and macro-fiscal stability but impacts on service delivery. It limits monthly cash expenditure to
cash availability and what were the previous monthly budget execution reports by MDAs. The Cash Management Unit (CMU)
established 2007 in the division of Accountant General (AccGen) has yet to develop adequate capacity for preparing a robust
cash plan for the year for MDAs. For now it is reduced to a coordinating role of gathering information and sending it to the
Ceiling Committee (CC). Under the cash rationing system, proposed expenditure commitments can only be processed through
EPICOR if cash is available under a one month limit. In practice, MDAs negotiate contracts outside IFMS and then present
invoices in EPICOR once the cash limits are known and MoF has issued exchequer releases. In addition to adjustments to budget
allocations made during the year within MDAs, several reallocations between MDAs take place each year which require MoF’s
approval. The level of reallocations and lack of predictability in fund flow tends to distort the execution of the budget.
ii. The level of compliance to procurement regulations is increasing. An annual performance evaluation index established by Public
Procurement Regulatory Authority (PPRA) shows a compliance rating of 77% in terms of 13 compliance indicators (55% in
2007/08). The legal and regulatory framework meets minimum requirements of the PEFA framework as well as the OECD DAC’s
National Procurement Assessment Framework. Nevertheless public access to procurement information as well as the process
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for handling procurement complaints could be improved. The 2011 PPA has been gazetted in December 2013 including its
respective regulations. The PPA 2011 improves the legal framework for public procurement including strengthening appeal
processes and the regulatory capacity of PPRA.
iii. A new Public Procurement Policy Department (PPD) within MoF has been established. PPD will offer training on public procurement
policies for those with relevant responsibilities. Currently 18 staff have been put in place. Work on a national procurement
policy is underway. It will explain the PPA and covers central and local government. Additional progress is needed to provide
not only names of projects and indicative information for tender issuance but information on amounts and exact dates of
commitments and ensuing payables. Progress has been made in aligning procurement plans with institutional strategic plans by
making it mandatory that Public Procurement Plan has to be part of Strategic Plan and Budget Plan.
iv. With regards to debt management, progress has been made by consolidation of the external debt data base maintained by Bank of
Tanzania in January 2010 into the external debt data base maintained in AccGEN through Commonwealth Secretariat Debt
Reporting and Management System (CS-DRMS). Maintaining all external debt data in one database increases accuracy of debt
management reports. The AccGEN routinely prepares monthly and quarterly debt reports mainly for management purposes.
The President’s office has agreed to establish a centralized Debt Management Office (DMO) within MoF although staffing
request is yet to be approved. MoF has been working on the revision of the current Loans and Guaranteed Act to incorporate
provisions that will insure a greater control of public indebtedness growth, and limit fiscal risks stemming from contingent
liabilities. The new Loan and Guaranteed Act (target, Cabinet by June 2014), will include provisions for a yearly ceiling on the
amount of direct public borrowing and a limit on the amount of loan guarantees GoT can grant to other public entities such as
Public authorities and Other Bodies (PA&OBs). It will also contain provisions for a greater control by MoF of those projects
financed under the Public Private Partnership framework that may have fiscal implications for the GoT. In January 2014 MoF
published the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) and the Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS).
v. Progress has been made in regard to the consolidation of government’s cash balances. GoT has closed 31,441 bank accounts since
2009 and the balances were transferred to GoT’s accounts in Bank of Tanzania (BoT) (approximately TSH 12bn). As of April,
2013 the number of bank accounts still being held at commercial banks was 29,022, indicating that new bank accounts continue
to be opened, some of them at request of development partners.
vi. The Five Year Road Map on the migration to International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) accrual is in place and is being
upgraded to be fully compliant with changing IPSAS guidelines. A key step for successful migration is the preparation of the
fixed asset register on which Government Assets Management is making progress. Currently, valuation work has been partially
been completed for 34 MDAs. Further, an asset management policy is being developed to support drawing of laws, regulations
and directives pertaining to management of public assets. It will cover all asset categories (31 classes) according to IPSAS and
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) (target final draft: Feb 2014).
vii. The AccGen prepares a consolidated annual financial statement for the central government (which excludes autonomous
government agencies) each year. Information is almost complete. The AccGen receives information from all MDAs on
expenditure arrears that emanate from commitments made outside IFMS but no evidence exists that all arrears are being
reported. Annual financial statements during the last three completed financial years were submitted to the CAG for external
audit six months after the end of the respective financial years.
viii. Effectiveness of payroll controls have drastically improved due to the up-grading of the Lawson payroll control system, the
strengthening of the payroll audit function and a comprehensive payroll cleansing exercise.
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Budget Control and Oversight: Improved adherence and enforcing of MDAs and LGAs to financial internal controls, rules, laws, regulations
and audit recommendations
Progress is been made in the effectiveness of internal and external audit
i. Overall the internal audit function has improved. All MDAs, LGAs and RSs have established Internal Audit Units (IAU) and their
planning is approved by Audit Committees with information to Internal Auditor General (IAG). However, implementation suffers
due to insufficient budgets and low capacities in particular on LGA level. All IAUs provide quarterly reports. Evidence contained
in the IAG’s and MDA’s reports indicates that management response has improved considerably and corrective measures are
increasingly being taken. However, while the internal audit functions are improving it is not translating in better internal control
process and follow up rules and procedures so far. Further capacity building of internal auditors, audit committees and
accounting officers is needed and a revision of the Local Government Finance Act (LGFA) with a view to give IAG more power on
LGA level remains to be done.
ii. Oversight over parastatals has improved since 2008 through the strengthening of governance requirements. 70% of PA&OBs report
quarterly and annually to Treasury Registrar (TR) and the CAG audits them. The TR prepares annual reports on the financial
situation of PA&OBs, although the missing reports of 30% of PA&OBs reduces the scope of its reports.The TR does not prepare
yet analytical reports on the fiscal risk posed by some of these public enterprises,yet the CAG annual audit reports indicate
serious instances of non-compliance with the law and note lack of adequate records and supporting documentation. The legal
framework was revised in 2010 to reinforce the powers of TR but it does not yet require TR to prepare a consolidated budget
and annual financial statements for all PA&OBs, to report on performance and to prepare an annual consolidated statement of
fiscal risks. The CAG annual audit reports on the PA&OBs indicate serious non-compliance with the law and note lack of
adequate records and supporting documentation. Such a situation limits the effectiveness of TR’s control and supervision. The
proposed new TR Act is expected to further enhance the powers of the TR and streamline governance requirements.
iii. The quality and coverage provided by the Central Auditor General (CAG) in statutory audits have achieved African Organisation of
Supreme Audit Institutions in English Speaking Africa (AFROSAI-E) level 3 standards as confirmed by the 2012 AFROSAI-E peer
review. Audit coverage of expenditures of all government MDAs, public entities and corporations increased to 100% in 2011/12.
International Organisation of Supreme Audit Institutions (INTOSAI) standards are fairly adhered to with the exception of CAG's
independence relating to staff recruitment and salaries. The development of performance and technical audit capacity
continues to receive focus with external support. Citizen’s audit reports are being completed in partnership with CSOs. Political
leadership is emphasising the need for MDAs to improve their follow-up of external audit recommendations. Nonetheless many
unresolved issues remain, dating back to 2008/2009 with little effort by the Executive to see to the closure of these
fundamental issues raised by CAG and Public Accounts Committee (PAC). The PAC conducts extensive hearings on audit findings
raised by CAG in the annual audited reports presented to Parliament. However, this is often delayed because it takes more than
12 months for PAC to review CAG audit reports and issue its report to the National Assembly for consideration and adoption.
Due to the recent amendments to the Public Audit Act in 2012, further delay in future is likely.
Change Management and Programme Management: Improved management practices with increased accountability and leadership to
better manage performance of PFMReforms
i.
MoF management is pro-actively leading the PFM reform agenda and reform program. It has pushed for changes in the PFM reform
agenda to address weaknesses highlighted in the PEFA 2013. The main component managers in the PFM systems are using
38 18/03/14
multi-year operating plans to guide the major change initiatives. Skill set and numeric capacity continues to be a cause of
concern and most departments face challenges in executing their primary mandate. This will also impact on the pace of the
PFM Reform. Lower salaries in GoT than in PA&OBs, private sector, DPs and NGOs affect retention rates, so that new staff has
to hired and trained.
ii. Public financial management reform needs and challenges on Local Government level are not addressed in a comprehensive
manner under Phase IV of the PFM reform program. LGA considerations are included in each of the KRAs lines but this approach
does not fully address the PFM reform challenges faced by Local Government. During the past weeks Government has taken
actions to improve the efficiency of the mechanisms used to channel money from central to local government authorities as
well as to improve coordination and harmonization in the development of software in the PFM environment under the
Department of Financial Management Information System (FMIS) in the MoF. It is necessary to focus on improving of the
transfer systems to make sure funds are used efficiently on local level. There is a need to coordinate and harmonize approaches
by Development Partners and Government, as well as formalise institutional arrangements between PMO-RALG and MoF for
the strengthening of PFM at subnational level. Support to PFM Systems on local level will increase under PFMRPIV in the next
fiscal year. The planned PEFA assessment on local level will help to determine PFM reform needs to sub national level.
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Underlying Principle 4
Summary Assessment
Key Concerns to Raise in Dialogue

Continuing peace and respect for
human rights, the rule of law,
democratic principles,and the
independence of the judiciary
Green
Orange



Need to advance progressive legislative reforms, e.g. Media Services Bill; FoI Legislation and Public
Leadership Code of Ethics legislation. Free and independent media should be properly regulated but
also protected by appropriate legislation.
Important to set out plans, prioritisation and progress for implementation of accepted UPR
recommendations and to other main HR committees (CESCR, CCPR, CRC, CEDAW) and to Government
commitment to consider ratification of the CAT.
Action is required to increase the transparency and security of land tenure. Current weaknesses inhibit
land rights which increase the potential for conflicts, can be an investment disincentive and be of risk for
sustainable use of natural resources.
Paramount to ensure the effectiveness of the election management bodies (NEC, ZEC, RPP) and the
voter registers to ensure a peaceful and credible Constitutional referendum and the 2015 elections.
Conclusions:
Peace: Tanzania has overall enjoyed sustained peaceful relations with its neighbours and remains a relatively cohesive state despite growing tensions, either religious in
nature or under the guise of religion, and increased demand from some on Zanzibar for greater autonomy.
Human Rights: Tanzania has a stable human rights record. Fundamental freedoms are enshrined and generally respected but some restrictions are noted; some laws
discriminate against women. A number of challenges and concerns are however noted:
- The main challenge lies in practical implementation of international and domestic human rights commitments;
- Most pervasive human rights issues relate to status of women and children – which remains a serious issue;
- Some restrictions on freedom of assembly and rights of expression and opinion remain;
- An increase in incidents relating to the treatment of the media and journalists has been observed;
- There is a need to increase transparency & security of land tenure to improve land rights/decrease conflict potential.
The 2011 UPR and Tanzania’s subsequent response offers an agenda for human rights advancement.
Rule of Law/Independence of the Judiciary: Tanzania enshrines the rule of law and equitable access to justice. The Judiciary is seen as lacking capacity and there are
consistently high perceptions of corruption reported. However it is more independent than it once was and Parliament as more assertive, but the Executive continues to
exercise influence over both.
Democratic Principles: The 2010 elections fell short of some international principles but credible & improvement on previous elections. The Constitutional Referendum and
the 2015 elections offer opportunities to consolidate and improve Tanzania’s credentials, but there are potential risks if outcomes are not regarded as progressive. Especially
crucial is the (perceived) integrity of the voter registers and the institutions responsible for the conduct of credible elections. Recent demonstrations suggest that GoT’s
effective management of public order will be critical going forward.
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Assessment Methodology
The parameters and the methodology for the first assessment of UP4 were agreed at a DP meeting on the 5/3/13. The methodology and content for this revision was agreed
at a DP meeting on the 19th September. DPs met on 20/9/13 to discuss the developments in human rights and new evidence since the first edition was completed. Based
upon these consultations a draft 2nd edition was prepared and circulated for comments. After 2½ weeks of feedback, a revised draft was prepared and re-circulated or final
approval.
In accordance with the Framework Arrangements for the Joint Assessment of Underlying Principles a range of qualitative and quantitative data has used. Existing national and
recognised international evidence has been drawn upon and Government sources have been used where possible.
Evidence Used in
Assessment Narrative
Assessment
Peace…
Bertelsmann Transformation
Index (2012)
The Tanzania Mainland’s overall identity as a cohesive State remains strong. Generally, reporting suggests that there is no major problem with
http://www.btithe identity of the state: “Tanzania faces no major problem with stateness” (Bertelsmann Transformation Index - 2012). The 2010 elections
project.org/countryhave not undermined this position – despite the significant drop in voter turnout – the World Bank Institute’s figures show a small increase in
reports/esa/tza
political stability figures since 2010 (and a more significant increase over the past decade).
Fund For Peace: The Failed
States Index 2013;
http://ffp.statesindex.org/ra
nkings-2013-sortable
In Failed States Index (Fund for Peace 2013) Tanzania scores relatively well (positioned between Senegal and China). Tanzania is however
located in a region where the level of “stateness is more variable (all neighbours except Zambia scoring well below it on the FSI) and is facing
challenges relating to the presence of a significant numbers of refugees, drugs and people trafficking and small arms flows. These challenges
are not undermining Tanzania's stability or territorial integrity.
World Bank Institute
Governance Indicators:
Political Stability;
http://info.worldbank.org/g
overnance/wgi/sc_chart.asp
#
The Mainland does not have a legacy of political violence. An historical political emphasis on homogeneity has resulted in only limited ethnic
rivalry. Generally different ethnic/regional groups on the Mainland perceive themselves as part of the same national community. Compared
to some neighbouring countries, the population is not significantly regionally, ethnically or religiously polarised. In the past grievances have
tended to be around lack of development/poverty levels or driven by local or personal issues and not ethnically, religiously, or regionally
defined.
However recent events such as the demonstrations in Dar es Salaam and on Zanzibar, gas and cashew-related riots in Mtwara, the church
attacks and attacks on religious leaders in Zanzibar and Geita have led some domestic observers to voice concerns and call for appropriate
Executive responses, including civic education, to avoid potential escalation.
In comparison to the Mainland, Zanzibar has had a more troubled political history including of election-related violence and unresolved
historical grievances. Previous multi-party elections on Zanzibar were seen as not having addressed adequately the perceived exclusion of
disadvantaged groupings. Notwithstanding these underlying factors, the negotiations between the President and the leader of the main
opposition party CUF (Civic United Front) in late 2009 culminated in the post-election formation of a GNU (Government of National Unity) and
a peaceful 2010 elections. Going forward, controversial issues relating to potentially increasing Zanzibari autonomy in the context of the
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Constitutional Review (see below) will test the cohesiveness of the GNU and may, potentially lead to increased tension on Zanzibar.
Indications of religious intolerance on Zanzibar should also be monitored continuously: currently it seems that the threats and harassment
faced by the Christian minority mainly are manifestations of their perceived association with the mainland exacerbated by the constitutional
review process that is seeking to address the demand on Zanzibar for increased autonomy.
APRM Tanzania Country SAR
(Self-Assessment Report);
Sept 2011.
“…Tanzania has been enjoying a relatively harmonious relationship with her immediate neighbours… The border situation with neighbouring
countries has generally been rated as calm.” (APRM Tanzania Country SAR (Self-Assessment Report) - Sept 2011)
Externally, Tanzania has enjoyed sustained peaceful relations with its neighbours. It is a contributor to various peace-keeping initiatives in the
region, with a notable leading role in the MONUSCO Foreign Intervention Brigade in Eastern DRC. The only ongoing international issue of note
relates to a border-related disagreement with Malawi over Lake Malawi. This issue has been referred initially to a SADC-forum Chaired by
former Mozambican President Chissano. As this regional forum has not been able to facilitate an agreement, the issue is likely to be referred to
the International Court of Justice by Malawi. However, both parties have publically committed to a peaceful resolution of the matter.
Following the President’s announcement in August 2013 that illegal immigrants should be removed from Tanzania, a major operation began in
September 2013 to remove non-Tanzanians without formal immigration documentation. This has impacted mostly Burundian and Rwandese
nationals (but also Malawians). It occurred at a time of some high-level critical exchanges and some short-lived cross-border trade issues
between Rwanda and Tanzania. Tanzania has voiced its displeasure at being excluded from a series of EAC-related meetings in August and
September between other EAC partners. The relationship with Rwanda continues to be strained despite the achievements of the EAC Summit
in November 2013.
Human Rights….
General
Tanzania has a stable human rights record and has not experienced the serious acute incidents of human rights violation of some of the other
countries in the region. There have been little overall discernible changes in the level of adherence generally to human rights norms in recent
years. However there are areas of current concern.
APRM Country Review
Report; Jan 2013.
Tanzania Human Rights
Report 2012; Legal and
Human Rights Centre; 2013
“….much remains to be done to protect the human rights of citizens in the country… Allegations of human rights abuses by state functionaries
and agencies, of police brutality and extra-judicial killings recurred throughout CRM (APRM Country Review Mission) stakeholder meetings in
Dar es Salaam and in the regions. Other causes of concern over the human rights situation in the country stem from the prevalence of “mob
justice” or “mob lynching,” attacks on albinos, and residual but culturally-based discrimination against women” (APRM CRR (Country Review
Report); Jan 2013).
In its 2012 Tanzania Human Rights Report, the LHRC (Legal and Human Rights Centre) reported that “In Tanzania incidents of extrajudicial
killings continue to mount while perpetrators are left unpunished”. In LHRC’s Bi-Annual Human Rights Report of July 2013 LHRC continued to
report serious incidents of mob violence against law enforcers leading to the death of 8 police officers between January – June 2013. LHRC’s
July 2013 reported that incidents of mob violence amongst civilians had increased by 6% for the half year compared to 2012. Witchcraft
42 18/03/14
Legal and Human Rights
Centre Bi-Annual Human
Rights Report January – June
2103
related killings were also reported as a major cause for concern (303 were reported by LHRC from January - June 2013). Preliminary findings
from LHRC for the whole year of 2013 indicate further downward trends in regard to extra-judicial killings, impunity, media freedom, genderbased violence and religious intolerance. A new and worrying trend is civilians having begun to kill police officers and attack police station. The
seemingly growing distrust in the police could, if not handled well, might affect rule of law and create lawlessness.
During the last quarter of the 2013 President Kikwete order an anti-poaching operation – “Tokomeza” to be conducted by the defense forces,
special anti-poaching militias, park rangers and local police. The operation was suspended after allegations of wide-scale human rights
violations (including murders and torture) and use of excessive force. Subsequently a parliamentary committee was tasked with investigating.
Although no public report has been forthcoming, the President subsequently, dismissed 4 ministers seen responsible for the alleged
perpetrations. The link between poaching and corruption is addressed in UP5.
Fundamental Freedoms
Tanzania’s Constitution and Bill of Rights enshrines fundamental freedoms and important principles such as equality and non-discrimination.
Similarly, human rights and civil liberties are protected in Tanzania’s legal domestic framework including its penal code. Tanzania’s formal
commitment to human rights and civil liberties is also reflected in its various national policies and programmes including Mkukuta II.
Internationally, with the notable exceptions of the CAT (Convention Against Torture - but see below) and the Second Protocol of the
International Convention of Civil and Political Rights which abolishes the death penalty, Tanzania is a signatory to most of the key human rights
conventions. Tanzania has also generally reported against most of the conventions it has ratified albeit after a considerable passage of time in
most cases. Tanzania has also committed to the implementation of several regional protocols (e.g. the African Charter on Human and People
Rights, the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region 2006 Protocol on Prevention and Suppression of Sexual Violence against
Women and Children. Tanzania hosts the African Court on Human and People’s Rights in Arusha.
As Tanzania operates a Common Law system - commitments to international legal mechanisms cannot be argued in domestic courts until they
have been integrated in the country’s national legislation. Experience shows that Tanzania takes a long time to do this, and makes reservations
regarding which parts of the international treaties are domesticated. Hence commitments made at international level do not necessarily lead
to immediate change domestically. The UN CRC (Convention on the Right of the Child), ratified by Tanzania in 1991, for example was not
enshrined in domestic law until the passing of the Child Act in 2009.
UPR recommendations:
http://www.uprinfo.org/database/?gclid=CK
Wbn4j_3bYCFRLLtAodYTgAK
w
However, there are a number of possible catalysts to address this situation and generate momentum for change. The 2011 UPR of Tanzania, its
first review, offers an agenda for human rights development. 120 UPR recommendations out of a total of 166 were accepted. Notable
acceptances included an agreement to improve the right to equality and non-discrimination, participation in national affairs, access to justice,
and health, the rights of children, persons living with disabilities and freedom of expression. Tanzania also agreed to consider ratifying the CAT.
Other potentially important human rights-related legal and policy reform processes include the on-going Constitutional Review, which provides
an opportunity to reduce the discrepancies between the country’s international commitments and its national legislation. This potentially
builds upon a National Human Rights Action Plan that was accepted by the Government and launched on 10th December 2013.. This provides
the basis for a coordinated response by Government to key challenges.
43 18/03/14
The second draft union constitution published on 31st December 2013 keeps the proposal for a federation with three governments: one for
the Union, a new Mainland (Tanganyika) government and a Zanzibar government with much greater autonomy –reducing significantly the
number of matters over which the Union would exercise jurisdiction. The draft includes transparency as a national ethos and includes a
detailed section on leadership ethics. A Bill of Rights section is a major step forward though it contains limitations including several claw-back
clauses, most notably regarding the freedom of the media and the right to life (death penalty). The draft appears to respond to existing
concerns around checks on presidential power and electoral reform at a union level - but is yet to address key issues such as the respective
supremacy of the three constitutions by deferring consideration of a potentially more important Mainland constitution to a later date.
The Constitutional Assembly, comprising of all the MPs from the Union parliament (357) and Zanzibar House or Representatives (82) and 201
presidentially appointed participants from civil society, will convene from 18th February 2014 onwards (for a period of 70 days, max 90 days) to
produce the final draft constitution subject to the referendum during summer/autumn 2014.The second draft includes an important and
detailed description on Transitional Measures, which (if left intact) would potentially pave the way for a gradual transition to the new
constitution
One of Tanzania’s most significant weaknesses lies in the practical implementation of international and domestic commitments. Although the
Government generally publicly places importance on the protection of human rights and does not actively condone or encourage human rights
violations by state agents, capacity constraints limits its ability to oversee and enforce human rights norms and sanctions for their breach. The
Government’s willingness to tackle some areas of long-standing concern has been questioned. Although impunity for violations does not exist,
punishment and redress for victims is limited.
Freedom House (2013)
http://www.freedomhouse.
org/report/freedomworld/2013/tanzania;
15/3/13
Fundamental freedoms are generally respected by the State. Freedom of expression is relatively good as is that of religion. Freedom of
assembly and association are protected (although subject to variations between Zanzibar and the Mainland). Nonetheless some restrictions on
freedom of assembly, association, rights of expression and opinion have been noted (see below). Data on regional comparisons show that
Tanzania is performing at a similar level to its neighbours in terms of press freedom - ‘partly free’ (Freedom House):
“Freedom of religion is generally respected, and relations between the various faiths are largely peaceful. In recent years, however, religious
tensions, especially between Muslims and Christians, have increased… The constitution guarantees freedoms of assembly and association.
However, these rights are not always respected.” (Freedom House - 2013).
Tanzania’s Constitution provides for freedom of speech. On the Mainland, the Media has grown exponentially in the last decade and has been
increasingly free to express opinions. Because of infrastructure and low literacy, television and newspapers have limited, mainly urban,
coverage. Radio has wider reach and the growth of FM stations has increased the amount and range of views expressed in the media. The
print media in particular has led the way in influencing public debate - for example, by persistent, if not always consistent coverage of
corruption allegations.
However events such as the suspension of two newspapers (Kulikoni and Mwanhalisi) in 2009, the indefinite suspension of Mwanhalisi again in
2012 and the suspension of newspapers Mtanzania and Mwananchi in September 2013 (now operating again) indicate that media reporting is
subject to limits. During the 2010 election campaign a number of media outlets were “cautioned” by the Government for their election
coverage. Nonetheless media coverage of the elections saw overall improvement in the level of balanced reporting, especially in newspapers.
44 18/03/14
Worldwide Press Freedom
Index (2013) Reporters
Without Borders reporting
in 2013; http://www.rsf.org
See also Special Report of
the Committee to Protect
Journalists; 6-8-13;
http://www.cpj.org/reports/
2013/08/the-invisible-plightof-the-tanzanian-press.php
Reporting cites a number of cases where journalists have been subject to physical abuse/harassment by the police. The death of a journalist
as a result of the police mishandling of a tear gas canister during a demonstration in September 2012 has been highlighted internationally and
will be reflected, as have previous incidents, in international press freedom reporting. See for example the recent decline in Worldwide Press
Freedom Index “Reporters Without Borders” reporting in 2013. More recently concerns have been raised over the violent attack on a senior
journalist in March 2013. There is view amongst some observers that the media’s space to operate together with their scrutiny roles, risks
being reduced as a result.
Generally, there is a concern about if and when the currently outdated media legislation will be updated – particularly through the enactment
of the long-awaited Freedom of/Right to Information Bill and a Media Services Bill. Draft Bills were presented in 2006 but were rejected and
revised legislation has yet to be re-presented. It is hoped that the drafts, when presented, will allay some concerns and that the new
legislation will not simply increase regulation rather than provide more protection for a free media. The most recent development is that
President Kikwete has promised at the 31st October 2013 London Open Governance Partnership Summit the “enacting [of] a freedom of
information law. By April next year…”
The media does have a self-regulation mechanism, specifically through the Media Council of Tanzania, although its capacity and reach is limited
and as a result media quality remains variable.
Children, Gender Inequality and Discrimination
The Constitution of Tanzania prohibits gender-based discrimination but the country’s legislation has yet to be fully aligned to support this
principle. In general legal protection for women remains limited. In line with the conclusions of the 57th Session of the UN Commission on the
Status of Women (CSW) of March 14th, 2013 Tanzania renewed its commitment to the fight against all forms of violence against women and
girls, and most in particular domestic violence, trafficking in women and forced prostitution, female genital mutilation, child, early and forced
marriage. The law prohibits assault but does not specifically prohibit spousal battery or protect women from gender-based violence. Although
the courts recognized domestic violence as grounds for divorce, there is no unified legal code protecting women. Traditional views of the role
and place of women still dominate and at lower judicial levels, Tanzania’s judicial authorities take into account both customary and religious
laws. Women often face discrimination as a result.
APRM Tanzania SAR; Sept
2011.
See also: concluding
observations of the UN
Committee on Economic,
Social and Cultural Rights
(November 2012):
http://sim.law.uu.nl/SIM/Ca
seLaw/uncom.nsf/804bb175
b68baaf7c125667f004cb333
/330c9ec8c60d2270c1257b2
Tanzania’s Constitution prohibits inequality and exclusion and enables reform (although the APRM SAR 2011 identified the need to improve
some legislation - notably the Law of Marriage Act). Nonetheless there are pervasive issues of inequality, gender and social exclusion that
persist. Capacity weaknesses limit enforcement and the influence of some entrenched cultural norms has limited progress in the area of
gender equality. Tanzania has not ratified the 1989 ILO Convention on Indigenous and Tribal Peoples nor enacted any laws on
minority/indigenous people. Homosexuality is still illegal in Tanzania, and Tanzania has not accepted recommendations made to the UPR on
sexual orientation.
Civil Society is increasingly active (and generally non-discriminatory in its approach) in advocating for the application of Tanzania’s legal and
policy framework and there are a range of networks, coalitions and associations that support gender equality in particular.
There is widespread violence reported against women and children, domestically and in schools. Discrimination against women limits their
rights and opportunities, most notably in terms of land rights and inheritance, education and the labour market. The High Commissioner for
45 18/03/14
b00557e8f?OpenDocument
Compilation of the Office of
the High Commissioner for
Human Rights in accordance
with paragraph 15 (b) of the
annex to Human Rights
Council resolution 5/1;
25/7/11;
Violence Against Children in
Tanzania Findings from a
National Survey 2009; Multi
Sector Task Force on
Violence Against Children;
Aug 2011.
Toxic Toil: Child Labor and
Mercury Exposure in
Tanzania’s Small-Scale Gold
Mines; Human Rights
Watch; August 28, 2013;
http://www.hrw.org/node/1
18031/
Tanzania National Panel
Survey Report
Round 1, 2008-2009
Tanzania Demographic
Health Survey Report, 2010
APRM Tanzania Country
Self-Assessment Report;
Sept 2011 and Country
Review Report Jan 2013.
Human Rights Report refers to widespread discrimination of women in access to education as well as ownership, inheritance and use of land.
Traditional practices that are harmful to girls and women persist, including courtship rape used as a form of engagement, bride price, and
Female Genital Mutilation. Of particular note with regard to children, are the findings of the 2009 Violence Against Children in Tanzania Survey
which found that nearly 3 in 10 females and approximately 1 in 7 males in Tanzania have experienced sexual violence prior to the age of 18. In
addition, almost three-quarters of female and male children have experienced physical violence prior to 18 and one-quarter have experienced
emotional violence by an adult during childhood.
The issue of child labour in Tanzania was highlighted in the Human Rights Watch Report (2013) on the hazards faced by child labour in
Tanzania’s licensed and unlicensed small-scale gold mines.
Cultural, family, and social pressures often prevented women from reporting abuses, and authorities are accused of limited action against
those who abuse women. According to the 2008/9 TNPS (Tanzania National Panel Survey), 18.0% of women aged 15 to 50 years old said their
partner had slapped them or thrown something that could hurt them; 8.0% reported being forced to have sexual intercourse by their current
partner. It is estimated that due to underreporting, the actual statistics may be higher than reported. Roughly half (51%) of Tanzanian women,
according to the TNPS, feel that a husband is justified in hitting or beating his wife in at least some circumstances. The 2010 Tanzania
Demographic Health Survey reported that among women aged 15 to 49, 17% said they experienced physical violence from their husbands
while 36% said they experienced emotional violence.
The law gives individuals the right to use, transfer, and occupy land without distinction of gender, and recognizes women's occupancy rights
although implementation is difficult because most women are unaware of their rights. Reporting notes widespread discrimination against
women in property matters related to inheritance and divorce - particularly in Zanzibar. APRM reporting (2011 and 2013) identifies similar
challenges emphasizing the economic disadvantages of women, gender-based violence, violence against elderly women and FGM (Female
Genital Mutilation).
Data suggests that Tanzania is doing slightly better than its neighbours in terms of gender equality, but it is hard to identify clear trends
reflected in international and domestic reporting. Some progress in gender equality in education and health has been reported together with a
slight improvement in some gender reporting (e.g. the Global Gender Gap Index) but generally the trend is a static one (IRAI, 2011).
Land Rights
There are signs of growing challenges with regards to other aspects of human rights in Tanzania. For example, increasing competition over land
and natural resources will create a more challenging environment for the protection of land rights. The low rate of formal land ownership
complicates the establishment and protection of land rights. There is a long-running land-based issue relates to pastoralists in northern
Tanzania. Although widely reported 2009 incidents of forced evictions of pastoralists involving alleged burning of homes and destruction of
property has not been repeated. Further, the Government’s decision in October 2013 to reverse its earlier controversial decision to Gazette
1,500sqkm of land used by pastoralists has been welcomed by pastoralist advocacy groups. Nonetheless highly contentious land disputes
persist in various parts of the country.
46 18/03/14
Human Development
Reports: The GDI (genderinequality index),
http://hdrstats.undp.org/en
/countries/profiles/TZA.html
World Economic Forum’s
Global Gender Gap Index
(2012);
http://www.weforum.org
IDA Resource Allocation
(“IRAI”) 2011)
http://www.worldbank.org/i
da/IRAI-2011.html
Under the Same Sun: PWA
Attacks in Africa (2014);
http://www.underthesames
un.com/sites/default/files/P
WA%20Attacks%20in%20Afr
ica.pdf
CESCR Tanzania Report Nov
2012 E/C.12/TZA/1-3 (art. 2)
Bertelsmann Transformation
Index (2012).
http://www.btiproject.org/countryreports/
esa/tza/2012/#chap4;
25/2/13
APRM Tanzania Country
Self-Assessment Report;
Sept 2011 (page: xxxiii)
Rights of People Living with Disabilities
Although Tanzania has ratified the main international disability-related instruments including the UNCRPD (Convention on the Rights of People
with Disabilities), the CRC and the Persons with Disabilities Act in 2010, implementation of the adopted frameworks remain limited. Persons
with disabilities and persons with albinism face social stigma and discrimination and suffer from frequent violation of rights. An ongoing
example is the killing or maiming of persons with albinism leading to 54 deaths since 2007 linked to the use of body parts in witchcraft
(Government submission to the UPR); according to the NGO Under The Same Sun’s (UTSS) report (2014) the figure stands at 72 During the year
2013 UTSS has proof of 6 attacks against people with albinism, including one murder and 2 severe mutilations. There have been very few
albinism-related convictions to-date. There are fears that the situation may worsen in run-up to the elections 2015.
Government and Human Rights Institutions
Human rights institutions play a public role in Tanzania. The CHRAGG (Commission for Human Rights And Good Governance) is a high-profile,
constitutionally-enshrined institution with a human rights investigative mandate. It is, however, limited by capacity/funding constraints and by
not having enforcement mechanisms to implement its recommendations. The CHRGG is not regarded as fully independent by some human
rights stakeholders as its Commissioners are appointed by the President. Its geographical reach is also limited. The Tanzania National Human
Rights Plan has been completed and submitted by the Ministry of Constitution and Legal Affairs (with CHRAGG providing technical lead) to the
Cabinet, after whose approval it was launched on 10th December 2013..
There is limited information to indicate the extent of Government promotion of rights awareness and attitudinal change although work on
albinism seems to be bearing fruit. Rights awareness and attitudinal change in Tanzania is however promoted by civil society notably the media
and faith groups. They include a focus on: environmental, children, disability, women, gender, economic and social justice and political rights.
Civil Society has, over an extended period of time, become more vocal in this area. Most prominent is the LHRC (Legal and Human Rights
Centre) which produces a widely read Annual Human Rights Report.
The Rule of Law….and independence of the Judiciary
Tanzania’s constitution and its legislative framework that derives from it, enshrines the rule of law and equitable access to justice. Separation
of powers is “fundamentally assured” (Bertelsmann, 2012) but the Executive continues to dominate. The Judiciary is seen as more
independent than it once was but the extent of this independence is limited by the Executive’s continued role in senior judicial appointments
to the allocation of funds to the Judiciary.
“The fusion of the Executive and Parliament complicates the functioning of the doctrine of separation of powers in Tanzania. For example,
Tanzania’s Constitution requires all cabinet ministers and deputy ministers to be appointed from among Members of Parliament. Generally, the
Executive is well placed to widen its sphere of action because of its wide discretionary powers and the fact that it controls most of the resources
needed by the other powers”. (APRM SAR)
In theory all citizens and institutions (public and private), including the state itself are accountable to laws that are publicly promulgated,
equally enforced and independently adjudicated and which, as Tanzania has ratified most of the key human rights conventions, are consistent
with international human rights norms and standards. The practice however does not necessarily follow from this and in the case of the
application of customary and religious law in particular, is too often reported to be discriminatory (especially with respect to gender issues).
47 18/03/14
In the 1990’s the Government commissioned the Nyalali Study to identify laws which violated human rights norms. Judge Nyalali listed “40
Bad Laws.” Many of these have yet to be revised. However concerns generally relate to the implementation of laws rather than their quality.
Legal amendments will therefore not automatically result in improved human rights.
Views of the People (Final
Draft) – December 2012;
Treat Us Like Human
Beings:’ Discrimination
against Sex Workers, Sexual
and Gender Minorities, and
People Who Use Drugs in
Tanzania; HRW; June 2013;
http://hrw.org/node/11626
6/
World Bank Institute
Governance Indicators –
Rule of Law (2011);
http://info.worldbank.org/g
overnance/wgi/resources.ht
m;
Afrobarometer/REPOA
Briefing Paper No. 66
Popular Views on Crime in
Tanzania (March 2009)
Afrobarometer/REPOA
Round 5 Survey 21/11/12
Perhaps the greater challenges for the Judiciary are its capacity and a high rate of (perceived) corruption. Delivery of justice is slow: “[the
Judiciary]…suffers from a significant lack of resources and a very heavy workload” (Bertelesmann, 2012). The Judiciary (especially at the lower
level), is widely perceived as being corrupt (see for example Views of the People, Afrobarometer).
Other elements of the legal system suffer similar problems. The police, for example, have been the subject of particular criticism with regard
to human rights: “Arrest and pretrial detention rules are often ignored. Prisons suffer from harsh conditions...and police abuse is common.
…Security forces reportedly routinely abused, threatened, and mistreated civilians with limited accountability throughout 2011”. (Freedom
House, 2012). The police were amongst a number of Tanzanian institutions criticised for abuses targeting sex workers, people who use drugs,
and lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) people in a June 2013 Human Rights Watch Report.
On Zanzibar, the same issues are present and have been further complicated by the use of Zanzibari special units (Customs, Fire Brigade,
Coastguard) in law enforcement despite having a less than clear mandate to do so.
Nonetheless improvements have been noted. There was a relatively strong showing in public order policing during the 2010 elections. This
was especially the case on Zanzibar where police were praised for their restraint and discipline. During 2012-2013 this positive reporting has
been both reinforced (handling of by-elections) and somewhat offset (use of excessive force on Chadema Movement 4 Change -events and on
Zanzibar Uamsho prayers-turned-political-rallies) by more recent incidents relating to police responses to public order issues.
Realities and perceptions relating to the overall effectiveness of the rule of law in Tanzania are difficult to assess in the absence of
comprehensive and detailed historical and recent data. What reporting these has been in recent years suggests a static picture (World Bank
Institute – 2011 and IRAI - 2011). The Legal Sector Assessment Report was commissioned by the GoT and concluded in the autumn 2013, but
unfortunately fell short in its analysis.
Afrobarometer 2003, 2005 and 2008 Public Attitude Surveys: “indicate that Tanzanians saw modest improvements in their personal safety and
security between 2003 and 2005, but there have been no further gains since then. Furthermore, although levels of theft victimization are still
very high, Tanzanians nonetheless offer a generally positive assessment of the government’s efforts to reduce crime”
More recent reporting (Afrobarometer 2012) suggests something of a reversal in this trend with greater levels of concern related to crime
being recorded and an increase in the number of people who believe that the Government is not performing well in this area (although 41% of
people still think the Government is doing “fairly well” and 9% “very well” in this respect).
48 18/03/14
APRM Tanzania Country
Self-Assessment Report;
Sept 2011 (page: xxxvi)
Democratic Principles……
Tanzania is formally a multi-party democracy with a solid record of protecting fundamental freedoms. But with relatively few elections (4)
under this dispensation, is viewed as an emerging democracy. “…democratic governance in Tanzania is still fragile - it still faces challenges…”
(APRM)
Tanzania reports positive progress with improved scoring on voice and accountability over the past 5 years. Afrobarometer survey results
found that ratings of election quality have also improved. The reporting does however vary between the Mainland and Zanzibar:
According to the VoP (Views of the People) Survey in 2012, Two-thirds of respondents agreed with the view that Tanzania was better off with a
competitive political system (in 2007 respondents were split 45-41 between those favouring a multi- as opposed to a single-party political
system). 55% saw an improvement in the performance of the President after the 2010 elections, compared to 22% who saw deterioration. For
the Prime Minister, the comparable figures were 55 and 18%. 54% saw the incidence of politicians buying votes during elections increasing,
while 20% considered the practice less common. There was a widespread view, shared by 72% of respondents, that opposition parties were
having a greater impact in parliament than previously.
In Tanzania political participation is not limited but the impact of high poverty levels and rural isolation means most organized political activity
and participation takes place in urban areas. Inevitably, in practice, the elected tend to originate from within the elite as the official and
unofficial costs of running for elected office exclude the poorest from standing. There is limited effective collective organisation in Tanzania.
The trade union movement is generally weak with the exception of teacher and medical doctor organisations which have pursued a more
confrontational approach to collective bargaining in recent years.
Although multi-party in theory and despite the existence of a legal and regulatory framework to enable multi-partyism, in practice Tanzania’s
political system has been dominated by the largest and incumbent party. In principle opposition parties are free to form, to campaign and to
organize within the Parliament. Registration complications experienced by one party ahead of the 2010 elections however evidenced that the
process is not a straightforward one. A number of parties articulate their political agendas in manifestos. The incumbent party’s manifesto is
by far the most comprehensive and widely available.
The opposition gained a historically high share in the 2010 general elections and on the mainland CHADEMA was able to win some strategic
urban areas. Although opposition parties’ low voting power has limited their ability to check Executive power, their Chairmanship of the key
accountability committees has been significant in holding Government to account. However, opposition’s politics have not always been very
constructive, with walkouts from various political processes and limited cooperation in balancing the ruling party. On the mainland CHADEMA
has recently been focused on serious internal disputes and fragmentation around competing key figures. CUF has continued to seek to balance
between being in opposition on the Mainland but part of Government (as part of the GNU) on Zanzibar.
In recent years, the historical dominance of the Executive over the Legislature appears to have been challenged to a limited extent.
Parliament is seen as having more teeth although the Legislature’s ability to initiate, analyse and amend legislation and to scrutinize the
Executive and Executive-appointed agencies and hold them publicly to account is still limited in practice. Nonetheless the work of the
Parliamentary Committees in recent years has been characterised by increased levels of activity and willingness to be more critical and
forensic in their approach. The Opposition has therefore expressed concern about the potential impact of the March 2013 revisions to the
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Audit Act, the merging of the PAC (Public Accounts Committee) and the POAC (Parastatal Organisations Accounts Committee) and potential
changes to the public broadcasting of Parliament, to be probably fully seen during the budget season 2014.
Since the advent of multi-party democracy in 1992, Tanzania’s elections under this dispensation have been regarded on the Mainland as being
largely free and but not wholly fair. On Zanzibar in the past, political conflict has resulted in the freedom of elections being brought into
question.
Tanzania Final Report:
General Elections October
2010: European Union
Election Observation
Mission
Commonwealth Observer
Group (Final Report):
Tanzania Election
Monitoring Committee
(TEMCO)
Tanganyika Law Society
(Interim Report, Final
Report and Press Release):
Mainland elections have been reported by international and domestic observers as credible, inclusive and accessible for all citizens. (EU-EOM,
Commonwealth, TEMCO, TLS) This applies to both registration and voting procedures both of which have been generally free from
intimidation and abuse, although some local aberrations have been recorded. The conduct of the 2010 elections was generally consistent
with this assessment although the election saw a significant drop in voter turnout since 2005 – 72% to 42%. The majority of international and
domestic observers again assessed the elections as credible but (for example because of issues such as unfair use of incumbency advantage
and criticism that the main election bodies are not fully independent) but falling short of some international principles. The preservation of
fundamental freedoms during the 2010 election was acknowledged and technical improvements compared to 2005 in voter registration and
election preparation were noted. Overall the elections were seen as a step forward in Tanzanian democracy but fell short of being conducted
on a level playing field.
On Zanzibar, the 2009 political settlement, referendum and agreement to form a GNU significantly reduced tensions. Although suspicions
around the non-issuance of Zanzibar Identifications remained, the 2010 election was overall better organised. It was also unprecedented in its
peaceful nature and the swift and fulsome acceptance of the result by the opposition despite being extremely close.
The next general elections are due late 2015, with the current President stepping down. The constitution process is ongoing with the
Constitutional Assembly starting on 18th February and referendum anticipated during the summer/Autumn 2014. The new constitution may
propose amendments to the electoral laws and role of Election Management Bodies. Conducting these changes within such a short timeframe
would have implications for the election cycle and the schedules of elections. Local government elections are due October 2014. Updating the
voter registers (last update on mainland before the elections 2010) to strengthen the integrity of the elections is crucial. The challenging and
highly ambitious timetable for BVR roll-out will need to be monitored closely to ensure that the timetable does not impact negatively the
integrity of the systems for the management of the data.
There is the potential for governance reversals during the run-up to 2015 and close monitoring is required with regard to this underlying
principle. Especially crucial is the (perceived) integrity of the voter registers and the credibility of the institutions responsible for the conduction
of credible elections. Any major short-comings on this field have the potential to undermine the overall credibility of the democratic process
with all that this would entail.
50 18/03/14
Underlying Principle 5
UP
Summary
Assessment
Key Concerns to Raise in Dialogue

Good Governance, accountability of
the government to the citizenry and
integrity of public life, including the
active fight against corruption in
accordance with the laws of the
United Republic of Tanzania.
Orange





A more active approach against corruption is needed - including movement on potential grand
corruption in key sectors (Health, Port, Energy). With regard to the energy sector, there is particular
concern around potential wrongdoing including possible corruption in respect of the IPTL case. Such
wrongdoing merits GoT investigation.
A greater use of administrative sanctions for petty corruption offences is required; including the police
and judiciary.
The current situation underlines the ongoing requirement for regular, effective and well-informed HLD.
Strong government commitments on access to information (e.g. EITI, OGP, FoI) but implementation and
impact is still limited. Increasing public access to information (data, policy, budget allocations etc.),
including at the local level, would be a major boost for accountability.
Better follow-up and implementation of the recommendations of CAG reports would further improve the
important oversight role of the NAOT. It is also crucial to ensure that Bunge's debate of CAG reports
retains its important role in the accountability cycle.
The Constitutional Review Commission has done commendable work and the review process has been a
positive indication of citizen’s participation to-date. It is important that the inclusive approach is
maintained in subsequent phases.
Conclusions:
Access to information/transparency: The GoT demonstrated high international political-level commitment to improved openness, transparency and access to information
through OGP (Open Government Partnership) and EITI. Commitments to OGP have been reiterated at the highest level of GoT on several occasions in 2013. EITI in turn has
sparked a broad debate on resource transparency which otherwise might have been absent. The Multi-Stakeholder Group (MSG) of EITI has approved the rather ambitious
Action plan for 2014, which implements new EITI standards. Also, the Big Results Now offers opportunity for deepening accountability to citizenry. However, in particular OGP
commitments have to be followed by much more rigorous implementation. Progress to date has been minimal, as evidenced both by the GoT’s OGP self-assessment report
and the OGP Independent Review Mechanism report. .Access to information remains limited despite OGP commitments and despite being articulated clearly in the
Constitutional Review consultations. This is further emphasized by constraints on the media (see UP4). The public commitment by the President of GoT in October 2013 to
present a modern Access to Information bill to parliament by April 2014 constitutes a positive sign.
Citizen’s voice and participation: The Constitutional Review Process has been broad-based and inclusive, showing a high degree of citizen’s participation. The conclusion of this
on-going process in a bipartisan and inclusive way could make the Tanzanian CRP a model for the region. However, in general terms, citizen’s participation and engagement in
domestic processes and decision making still leave considerable room for improvement. Transparency of government, access to information, freedom of the media and
supportive legislation are crucial in this regard.
51 18/03/14
Executive accountability to Parliament: Parliamentary scrutiny of the budget, budget debates in parliamentary committees and plenary, and the quality of audit reports have
consistently improved. The revised budget cycle has contributed positively to this. However, there is still scope for strengthening parliamentary oversight of the budget, in
particular with regard to access to budget information. A serious concern is that GoT follow-up to audit findings and recommendations remains weak. Amendments made to
the Audit Act (early 2013) implied a delay in the parliamentary debate of CAG audit reports (and PAC reports of the same), which raised concerns whether the oversight role
of parliament in scrutinizing CAG reports would be weakened. In 2013, the executive's response to audit findings was submitted in October permitting subsequent
parliamentary debate in the November session of Bunge. It remains crucial to ensure that the parliamentary debate of audit reports is timely and informed also in the future.
Good Governance: Governance systems that function with efficacy are an underlying assumption for GoT to achieve its development objectives and the delivery of essential
basic services. The core governance reforms have been the principal mechanisms to improve such systems and processes to date. Progress in these programs has lately
stalled, and GoT’s own financial contributions to the programs have been limited. In addition, many international indices measuring aspects of governance in Tanzania point
to either stagnation or a slight decline in recent years (e.g. IIAG, BTI, WGI, Ease of doing business). The GoT’s plans for improving governance systems after 2014 remain
currently unclear.
Corruption: The evidence reviewed shows a society where corruption is highly prevalent, and risk of corruption is substantial. After some positive movements in 2012, there
were few significant developments in the fight against corruption in 2013. A high number of unresolved corruption cases remain in the courts. Under-use of administrative
sanctions is also a central concern. Tanzanians perceive an increase in corruption over the past 4-5 years and rank Police and Judiciary as most corrupt sectors. Looking at a
wider range of indicators, the overall trend on corruption appears static to declining. Recently published data sources (TI, Bertelsmann) show a slight decline in scores for
Tanzania, and in most indicators Tanzania now hovers around the Sub-Saharan African average. The key question remains whether an active fight against corruption is in
place; more evidence is required to provide a comprehensive judgement on this, taking into account the full range of action taken by the Government, beyond legal sanctions.
Ensuring an effective HLD as means for dialogue and information sharing will be critical in this regard.
Changes since last update
-
Update on Open Government Partnership progress based on recently published Independent Review Mechanism report.
EITI section updated and mention of Natural Resource Charter Benchmarking exercise added
Update on Constitutional review process, 2nd Draft Constitution published.
Update on parliamentary debate of CAG audit reports and submission of budget books to bunge. Debate of CAG reports no longer flagged as an explicit concern.
Sections 1-3 shortened, older info removed or edited.
Update on submission of asset declarations to Ethics secretariat
Mention of Tz performance in international governance indices added to summary
Anti-corruption: Sections on TI Corruption Perception Index and Bertelsmann Transformation Index updated, minor edits on WEF and WGI. HLD references removed in
text.
Assessment Methodology: : This is a joint assessment by all the GBS Development Partners and was led by DFID (High level dialogue on corruption) and Finland
(Governance). It is an updated assessment from the most recent UP assessment of November 2013. It considers both local and international evidenced based indicators
and sources: OBI Report 2013, CAG reports, APRM, PEFA (oversight and budget process indicators), WGI, Afrobarometer, Freedom House, and African Peer Review
Mechanism, “State of the Media Report” MCT, Views of the People, world press freedom index, PMO RALG website & MISATAN reports, Transparency International Global
Corruption Barometer, Bertelsmann Transformation Index and the World Economic Forum survey.
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Evidence Used in Assessment
Assessment Narrative
1) Access to information / Transparency – [Green/Orange]
Open Budget Survey 2012
PEFA 2013
Open Government Partnership
(OGP)
OGP IRM Report, Feb 2014
GoT OGP Self-Assessment
2012-13
MISATAN reports21
21
22
There have been positive developments in recent years in the area of budget transparency and access to information. Tanzania’s score on
the Open Budget Index has been moderately improving, from 36/100 in 2008 to 45/100 in 2012 and 47/100 in 2012. Notably the
publication on the website of the Ministry of Finance of the executive’s budget proposal, the approved budget books and a Citizen’s guide
to the budget are positive steps (see also UP3). However, the Open Budget Survey also mentions significant remaining weaknesses, e.g. the
lack of annual and semi-annual budget reports and weak budget oversight. The recently concluded PEFA showed no improvement since
2010 in Public access to fiscal info (grading: 2010: B; 2012: B).
On 20th September, 2011, the Government of Tanzania committed itself to the Open Government Partnership (OGP), a high level global
initiative that aims at promoting transparency, enhancing management of public resources, empowering citizens, fighting corruption and
encouraging use of technologies to improve access to information and governance. In order to fulfil its commitments, the Government
adopted an ambitious country OGP Action Plan 2012-201322. The action plan focuses on water, education and health. Tanzania’s high level
commitment to the OGP and other international transparency related processes – including prominent commitments on land and
extractives through G8 partnerships agreed during 2013 – have been positive and have potential to further strengthen inclusive good
governance and social accountability. However, progressive implementation particularly of OGP commitments has been limited to date with
few clear demonstrable results.
GoURT has continued under the OGP to implement transparency activities that pre-date OGP such as the client service charters, complaints
handling mechanisms and the citizen budget. However, the GoT has not implemented commitments that were introduced with OGP such as
the transparency in medical supplies and a comprehensive water point mapping. According to global OGP process, Tanzania was evaluated
against its work plan by an independent team in late 2013. This report was disseminated in February 2014. This team of experts determined
that Tanzania has completed only 3 of the 25 commitments. Although designing the OGP work plan was participatory, CSOs have noted
most of their content inputs were not incorporated. The GoT self-assessment process was not executed in a participatory manner. The
review mission recommends the next action plan be designed in consultation with stakeholders and be more focused with a demand-side
approach. The OGP independent review mission has noted that local government transparency according to existing requirements (posting
of approved budgets, disbursement, and execution reports on public notice boards, etc.) is limited to non-existent. Tanzania’s commitment
to present the Right to Information bill to parliament was renewed by the President in October 2013, putting the deadline for submission to
April 2014. This would be an important achievement in improving the state of transparency and right to information in Tanzania.
Access to information on the Local Government level remains a challenge. Steps to address this were taken by PMORALG in October 2012,
issuing a circular to LGAs specifying which reports/documents should be made available to the public. This is a positive step towards
greater transparency. Despite this, PMO-RALG report of November 2012 shows that access to information remains an issues at the LGA and
LLGA levels, as not all the requirements (statutory or otherwise) to furnish information are fully complied with. This trend is supported by
the Misatan 2012 Report on the Most Open and Secretive Government Institutions, which confirmed considerable improvement in terms
http://www.tz.misa.org/
http://www.opengovpartnership.org/sites/www.opengovpartnership.org/files/country_action_plans/OGP%2520ACTION%2520PLAN%2520REVISED%2520ON%252026-3-2012-1.pdf9__0.pdf
53 18/03/14
PMO RALG report on LGA AND
LLGA duties to furnish
information
of online publication of data on a sample of 8 government and public institutions but also noted some significant shortcomings in access to
information including on the local level.
A consistent system for collecting data on service delivery in particular on the local level is currently missing in Tanzania. The Local
Government Monitoring Database (LGMD) has not been updated at all recently (last budgets from 10/11 F/Y). This impedes the planning
functions of LGAs and hinders the effective monitoring of service delivery performance under BRN.
Around 90% of the land in Tanzania is not surveyed, there is little formal registration of land (an estimated 160,000 out of a potential eight
million parcels have titles) and there is no comprehensive land title registry. The lack of clear, accessible and up-to-date information on who
has land use rights can undermine tenure security, particularly for vulnerable groups, including women, and heighten the level of conflict
and disputes. There is a general lack of clear, reliable and accessible data relating to available and underutilised land suitable for agriculture
and other activities due to the virtual absence of land use plans and underlying base maps.
G8 Land Transparency
Partnership
The Government of Tanzania has clearly demonstrated its commitment to transparency in the extractive sector through the Extractive
Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and through the 2013 G8 Partnership on Transparency in the Extractive Sector and Land. Tanzania
achieved EITI compliant status in December 2012 This high level commitment is a positive step forward. Tanzania has produced its 3rd EITI
reconciliation report and a noticeable trend of a slight increase in tax revenue from the extractives sector is beginning to emerge, although
much space for improvement remains. As Tanzania begins the process of implementing the new EITI standards in 2014, stakeholders, such
as Parliament, civil society and the public, can make use of the information provided in the reports for engaging in a broader policy debate
covering the full value chain of the extractives sector.
The TEITI Secretariat is expected to become an independent entity from the Ministry of Energy and Minerals through dedicated legislation
in 2014. The consultations on the draft legislation were completed in 2013.
Another high profile initiative in the area of transparent resource governance is the Benchmarking Exercise conducted this year on the basis
of Natural Resource Charter’s model. A high-level expert panel has been convened, which is due to issue a set of specific recommendations
to the GoT by the end of 2014, pertaining to the full value chain of natural resources in the country. The GoT’s high level commitment to the
process is commendable and DPs look forward to conclusion of the expert panel’s work.
Revenue Watch Institute
Currently, based on an analysis made by the Revenue Watch Institute, Tanzania fares only moderately in resource governance, ranking
27th/58 (score: 50/100) on the Resource Governance Index. The analysis is based on the institutional and Legal Setting (score: 44/100),
Reporting Practices (score: 48/100), Safeguards and Quality Control (score 68/100) and Enabling Environment (42/100). Tanzania ranks
'weak' in all but Safeguards and Quality Control.
2) Citizen voice and participation
The Constitutional Review and the committee overseeing this democratic process have made positive efforts to solicit and consider the
views of citizens in the new draft of the constitution. The Constitutional Review started with public hearings, where citizens had the
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possibility to air their views. All demographic groups, including children, were welcome to voice their opinions. The review continued with
institutional stakeholders (political parties, NGOs, government leaders, professional bodies and all other groups) hearings. The second draft
of the constitution will be submitted for consideration of the Constituent Assembly in the late February. After discussion in the CA, the draft
legislation will be subject to a referendum scheduled for later in 2014.
Generally speaking, the process has been inclusive and participatory, even though problems relating to restrictions in participation have
been occasionally reported by CSOs. This process has been a positive step forward in creating a benchmark for inclusiveness in Tanzania.
It is hoped that the inclusive approach is carried forward to the Constituent Assembly as well.
http://twaweza.org/uploads/fil
es/DraftConstitutionFINALEN.pdf
TWAWESA launched a survey in late July 2013 to assess the level of awareness and participation of citizens on the mainland in the CRP
process. Results showed that 36% of mainland Tanzanians engaged in process, 29% of mainland Tanzanians attended a constitutional
review community meeting, 11% of mainland Tanzanians submitted an opinion in writing and 67% of mainland Tanzanians know the draft
constitutions was launched. However 77% are unaware where they can obtain a copy of the draft.
In Tanzania inclusion and participation of domestic stakeholders in national processes have improved marginally. The level of stakeholder
engagement, however, varies significantly by sector as well as level within the bureaucracy. The Government has established participatory
approaches in some of the key national processes, e.g.: water sector and the OD&D processes on the LGA level, but often success is
determined by the willingness of individual actors in power to adhere to the procedures. However it remains the view of some stakeholders
that actual inputs are often not “taken on board”, which was noted also in the APRM peer review.
Africa Peer Review Mechanism
The APRM Country Review Mission (CRM) found that access to information was a problem particularly in rural areas, where viable forums
for information exchange are lacking. This had an adverse effect on participation in decision making, which is especially the case for
women: Women’s voices are yet to be heard in decision-making even at household level, let alone in public life, especially in matters that
directly affect them.” Incremental progress has been made to improve women’s participation – for instance 30% of MPs are women.
However, it should be noted that a large majority of these occupy special seats.
Afrobarometer
The 2012 Afrobarometer report indicates that Tanzanians in general feel that there is freedom for citizen engagement, but for most
citizens, active participation is still limited. 87% of Afrobarometer respondents (n=2400) feel they are completely free to join any political
organization they want (2008: 80%). However, 62% of respondents stated they would never attend a demonstration or protest march. 66%
of respondents also stated they have never contacted their local councilor (2008: 68%) and 57% have never contacted a government agency
(2008: 87%) with a problem or view. Lastly, 45% of respondents feel people often have to be careful of what they say about politics.
VoP 2012
The Views of the People (VoP) study of 2012 indicated that citizens are not completely content with the level of government
responsiveness. More than half (53%) of the respondent agreed with the statement ‘Government officials do not listen to ordinary people’,
Dar es Salaam fairing slightly better than others. 58% of respondents from other towns view the GoT as not listening to the people. In sum,
although there seems to be a positive trend towards spaces for citizen participation, it remains unclear if this translates into increased
participation and a more responsive approach on the part of government.
The perceived gap between citizens and government may be further buttressed by some of the benefits enjoyed by political and
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http://www.policyforumtz.org/files/JUKWAApolicyforu
mLHRC1.pdf
administrative elites. In January 2014 Tanzanian media for instance revealed the government’s plans to considerably increase the send-off
payment packages to MP’s. This and similar cases may serve to hamper the trust between citizens, its MP’s and the government.
The OBI (Open Budget Index) assessed public engagement in the budget process as weak in 2012. The survey recommends that Tanzania
should expand public engagement in budgeting. Government has attempted to improve public participation in the budget process at the
local level through the Opportunities and Obstacles for Development (O&OD) process. Although this process could be further strengthened,
it is a positive step forward to build on.
The new Government led initiative, Big Results Now, offers an opportunity for deepening accountability of the government to the citizenry
through transparency of sector specific targets.
In sum, there are some positive developments but citizen participation and engagement are still curtailed by shortfalls in access to
information, transparency and in the legislative environment (see also UP4). Improvements within these fields would lead to a significantly
enhanced landscape for executive accountability to citizens.
3) Executive accountability to parliament
Open Budget Survey (OBS)
2012: Tanzania fact sheet
Executive accountability as measured by the extent of effective oversight provided by legislatures and the SAIs (Supreme Audit Institutions)
seems to have been improving in recent years in Tanzania. The Open Budget Survey examines legislature oversight by measuring
performance on 11 indicators – some reflect the performance of Parliament and others reflect the Executive’s accountability to Parliament
on budget oversight. Legislative strength of the budget process in Tanzania is assessed as moderate (in comparison to Uganda and Rwanda
where it is assessed as strong; Kenya is also moderate). This is a slight improvement. The OBI 2012 stated that the Legislature was moderate
in its role of oversight in the budget process.
According to the 2012 OBS, to further improve oversight Tanzania should institute a specialised budget research office to assist with budget
analysis; the Executive should provide the legislature with the Executive’s budget proposal at least six weeks before the start of the budget
year and the executive should also seek approval from the legislature prior to shifting funds between administrative units and line items.
Parliamentary oversight of the budget process
The recently conducted PEFA concluded that there have been some improvements in parliamentary scrutiny of the budget (from grade C+
in 2010 to B+ 2012). Main improvements include the scope of the review (which now includes the Planning and Budgeting Guidelines) and
the extended time period allowed to scrutinize sector budget proposals and national budget proposals.However, the PEFA also concludes
that there is limited information available to parliament to exercise budget oversight. Budget credibility is considered to be low due to the
optimistic forecasts of revenue and expenditures, leading to arrears at the end of the fiscal year.
PEFA 2013
The parliamentary Standing Orders require the budget books be submitted to Parliament at least 21 days before it sits. In July 2013, budget
books were submitted timely, which is an improvement from 2012 and 2011.
During 2012, the budget cycle was reviewed and reformed. This is a positive development that recognises the need for increased budget
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Ministry of Finance
documentation
PEFA 2013
Official text on amendments to
Audit Act
oversight and timely approval of budgets. Macro-fiscal risks can be reduced by following a two-stage decision making process whereby the
legislature endorses the budget framework (at least by the budget committee) before debating the individual votes and setting expenditure
priorities within the budget. Also positive is the fact that this change was made in response to demand from the CAG and PAC. The
establishment of a budget tracking committee within Parliament is also a positive development. The committee was active during the
session and their proposals for changes, in amongst others proposed taxes, were agreed by parliament. The review of the budget cycle is
generally seen as a success. After debates in the parliamentary committees and the plenary, significant changes were made to key sector
budgets such as water and energy. However, an issue of concern remains whether parliamentary oversight can ensure budget discipline
without adequate and realistic information on revenues and expenditure.
The impact of CAG audit reports on public accountability is very important. Government response to the CAG audit reports and
implementation of recommendations made by CAG and parliamentary committees has been mixed in recent years. While Parliamentary
and media debate on the CAG reports in 2012 had a substantial impact on the executive, resulting in a major Cabinet reshuffle by the
President, in general Government follow-up to audit findings and recommendations remains weak and is a recurrent theme of CAG
reports. Weak follow-up is noted also by the PEFA 2013, which sees no improvements since 2010 in the legislative scrutiny of audits
(maintaining the D+ grade). The PEFA concludes that “with the performance of the external audit function, the main issue is the
unsatisfactory follow-up by the Executive branch of Government on the recommendations issued by the PAC.”
The Audit Act was amended in early 2013, prohibiting Parliament to debate the Parliamentary Accounts Committee’s (PAC) report on the
CAG audits without having first received a structured management response from the executive to the audit’s recommendations. The
concern has been that the absence of a prescribed timeframe for the management response of the executive could potentially delay the
ability of parliament to debate the reports in a timely fashion. Another concern is that the oversight powers of the Parliamentary
Committees are reduced as the government no longer takes their recommendations into account in its consolidated report. On the other
hand, the new rules may lead to better follow-up to audit recommendations through a structured response by the Executive.
The CAG reports were presented to the Parliament on the 11th of April 2013 and are publicly available. The NAO confirmed on October 7th
that the Paymaster general had submitted its response to the CAG Audit reports. The CAG report was subject to plenary debate in late
2013. The amendment to the Audit Act did thus not lead to a significant delay in parliamentary debate of CAG reports during the first year
of its implementation. Also, the requirement for the executive to submit a structured response to audit reports may as such be seen as a
positive development.. However, DPs remain concerned by the uncertainty of the timelines within the Audit Act amendments and possible
delays in the accountability process in the future.
4) Integrity in public life, including the active fight against corruption - [Orange]
Corruption is difficult to measure accurately. This partly reflects the difficulties of quantification which apply to many areas of governance;
for example quantifying issues such as the accountability of the executive to the legislature, or implementation of legal frameworks. But
more importantly, corruption is by its nature a hidden phenomenon and this causes specific problems in monitoring and measuring it.
Despite these difficulties, there are a wide range of domestic and international surveys and studies which attempt to put numbers to
corruption. The different methodologies of these studies and the different questions they seek to answer often lead them to different
conclusions about corruption levels. Some are based on public surveys, some on experts’ opinions; some measure petty corruption, some
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grand; and some track people’s direct experiences of corruption whilst others ask respondents about their perceptions of corruption. This
assessment will therefore draw on a range of different corruption indicators rather than relying only on one or two as proxies. It will make
clear the methodologies and limits of each indicator and will attempt to draw conclusions by triangulating results across different sources.
4(a) Measures of Perceptions of Corruption
It is important to distinguish perceptions of corruption from actual incidence of corruption. Perceptions of corruption may increase because
there is raising awareness of corruption amongst the public, perhaps linked to specific campaigns by civil society or the media, and may not
necessarily be linked to increases in the incidence or seriousness of corruption in society.
Afrobarometer 2012
Perceptions of corruption in Tanzania have increased significantly in recent years. For example the Afrobarometer (an Africa-wide public
opinion survey with a sample size in Tanzania of 2,400) found that the percentage of people who believe that at least some Government
officials are corrupt increased from 73% in 2008 to 88% in 2012. Some 72% of people believed that at least some officials in the President’s
Office are corrupt in 2012, up from 54% in 2008. The percentage of the public saying that most or all police are corrupt increased from 36%
in 2008 to 56% in 2012, with 92% of people saying that at least some police are corrupt. The percentage of people who believe the
Government is doing well in fighting corruption also reduced, from 56% in 2008 to 34% in 2012.
The VoP survey, which was carried out by Research on Poverty Alleviation (REPOA) and surveyed 5,136 Tanzanians aged 18 and above in
2012, also suggests public perceptions of corruption have increased. In 2012, 67% of those surveyed said that the Police was affected ‘a lot’
by corruption, up from 46% in 2007. Other sectors were also judged to be affected ‘a lot’ by corruption included the legal system (44% in
2007 to 63% in 2012) and health services (33% in 2007 to 55% in 2012). It is important to remember that public perceptions of corruption in
particular sectors are affected by the extent of opportunity to extract bribes.
REPOA – VoP (Views of the
People) Survey
Transparency International
Corruption Perceptions Index
International perceptions of corruption in Tanzania have also increased recent years, although less dramatically than domestic
perceptions. The widely cited Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) of Transparency International, a composite indicator based on 13 different
sources which track the opinions of business people and country experts, rates Tanzania’s performance as reasonable in comparison to
other countries in the region, although its position is worsening. Tanzania scores 33/100 in the CPI 2013, which puts it in 111th place out of
180 countries (21/48 in Africa). This places Tanzania ahead of neighbouring countries such as Kenya and Uganda, but behind Zambia,
Malawi and Rwanda. Tanzania’s score has shown a slight deterioration since 2012, from a score of 35 to a score of 33 and ranking 102nd to
111th. Before 2012 a different methodology was used, meaning that scores cannot be compared.
A composite index based on perceptions of experts, businesspeople and citizens, as well as some measures of experience of corruption, is
the Worldwide Governance Indicators’ Control of Corruption indicator. Data published in September 2013 shows that Tanzania’s score
declined slightly, from minus 0.68 in 2011 to minus 0.85 in 2012. Tanzania’s ‘percentile rank’ in the world has also declined, from 27/100 to
22/100 (its absolute position is 164th out of 210 countries; 28th out of 49 in Sub-Saharan Africa). This decline is small and not statistically
significant – i.e. it falls within the margins of error (90% confidence interval). However this is the sixth consecutive decline since 2006 (when
Tanzania’s percentile rank was 51), and the declines over multiple years are big enough to be outside the margins of error. According to this
indicator control of corruption in Tanzania is weaker than in Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia, but stronger than in Uganda,
Kenya, Nigeria or DRC.
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Worldwide Governance
Indicators
REPOA – VoP (Views of the
People) Survey
Transparency International
Global Corruption Barometer
4(b) Measures of Petty Corruption – Public Sector
The incidence of petty corruption is best measured through survey data. Whilst there are problems with sampling techniques and other
methodological issues, surveys can ask ordinary people and businesses about their direct experiences of paying bribes – which are a more
reliable indicator of the prevalence of bribery than perception information. Surveys need to include a range of respondents that are
balanced in terms of gender, rural/urban areas, age, income and level of education.
The VoP Survey appears to show that although bribery remains common in Tanzania, there may have been a decline in the actual payment
of bribes in most sectors, although methodological information is still not available to confirm or deny this. For example, whereas in 2007,
41% of people who had come into contact with the Police said that they had paid a bribe, in 2012 the published figure was 32% for the
traffic police and 23% for regular police. The equivalent figures for the legal system were 28% in 2007 to 17% in 2012. Only in the health
system does the prevalence of bribery appear to have increased, from 12% in 2007 to 16% in 2012. Figures for overall prevalence of bribery
(i.e. the question ‘have you paid a bribe to any public institution?’) are not available. Further methodological information is required to
confirm whether these figures are comparable.
The Transparency International Global Corruption Barometer (GCB) appears to shows a slight increase in the prevalence of petty bribery.
The GCB is a public opinion survey covering 100 countries. It is distinct from the better known Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). Tanzania
was surveyed in 2011 and again in 2013 by Infinite Insight, using face to face surveys with a sample size of approximately 1000, covering
both rural and urban areas. According to the survey the number of Tanzanians who had paid a bribe to one of eight institutions rose from
49% in 2011 to 56% in 2013. Given the sample size and the difficulty of obtaining a nationally representative sample, it is not possible to
interpret this as a definitive rise in the prevalence of bribery, but it does suggest that bribery is common, and there has not been a
significant decrease. According to the survey, petty bribery to access services in Rwanda, Ethiopia and DRC is less prevalent than in
Tanzania, whilst bribery is more prevalent in Uganda, Kenya and Mozambique.
The fact that two surveys may suggest opposite trends in the prevalence of petty bribery in Tanzania indicates the difficulty of measuring
corruption. However it is too early to judge for certain that the Views of the People data shows a reduction in prevalence of bribery. It is
possible that there are differences in the calculation of the score and further clarifications are required before coming to a final view.
4(c) Measures of Petty Corruption – Private Sector
The World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey is a major worldwide survey of the business community covering 144 countries. In
Tanzania the survey is carried out by REPOA. 92 firms completed the survey in 2013. The firms surveyed were asked to assess the
prevalence of bribery in the private sector in Tanzania (in a range of sectors including imports and exports, awards of public contracts etc.)
on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing ‘very common’, and 7 representing ‘never’. Scores have been deteriorating slightly in recent years,
from 3.1 in 2011 to 3.0 in 2012 and 2.8 in 2013. These falls are probably too small to interpret as a significant increase in bribery and
corruption, but they do indicate that – as perceived by private companies – things are not getting better. Tanzania ranks 132nd out of 148
countries against this measure; the survey suggests that bribery in the private sector is less common in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and
Rwanda than in Tanzania; there is about the same level in Uganda and it is more common in Burundi and Nigeria.
World Economic Forum
4(d) Measures of Grand Corruption
59 18/03/14
Executive Opinion Survey
Bertelsmann Transformation
Index
Grand corruption is especially difficult to measure. Whereas petty corruption can be measured through tracking ordinary people’s direct
experiences of giving bribes, grand corruption cannot be measured in this way as those involved are not willing to discuss their experiences.
There are therefore two main ways of tracking grand corruption: (i) through measuring ordinary people’s perceptions of the extent of
corruption; or (ii) through asking experts for their views on its prevalence.23 This assessment uses expert perceptions as they are judged to
be a more reliable (or at least less unreliable) assessment of the extent of grand corruption.
The Bertelsmann Transformation Index is based on a qualitative expert survey, in which written assessments are translated into numerical
ratings. One local and one foreign expert are involved in the evaluation process. The BTI ranks the extent of prosecution of abuse of office in
Tanzania at 4, somewhat closer to ‘no prosecution’ (1) than ‘rigorous prosecution’ (10). The authors question whether a serious attempt is
being made to fight corruption at all levels, although they note that government officials have been brought to court. The report notes the
removal of several ministers in May 2012 and lack of subsequent legal action. More generally they note that, officeholders may be
dismissed under political or popular pressure following accusations of corruption; but beyond losing their office, officials rarely suffer other
punishment. Any potential wealth accrued from the alleged activities is retained; thus there is little to dissuade officials from involvement in
corrupt practices. In terms of trend, the score of 4 is a decline from the last three surveys (2008, 2010 and 2012) when this indicator was
assessed at ‘5’. The BTI rates the level of prosecution of abuse of office as more effective in Uganda, Rwanda and Malawi, the same in
Kenya, Burundi and Zambia, and less effective in DRC, Ethiopia and Nigeria.
4(e) Recent corruption cases and progress to address them
There are a high number of unresolved corruption cases in Tanzania. Some of them involve senior Government (or ex-Government) figures.
In the past year, there has been one conviction in a grand corruption case (case 1158/08 - Changanyikeni Residential Complex Ltd). Many
corruption cases remain in the courts, and some are subject to significant delays. For example, of the 22 companies involved in the External
Payments Arrears scandal which emerged in 2007/08, 3 have now ended in convictions, and 10 cases are still in Court. Of the remaining
cases, some have seen the full recovery of misappropriated funds but without a legal case, whilst others have not been taken to court as the
evidence was judged not to suggest wrongdoing.
PCCB and DPP updates
In 2012-2013 a number of administrative actions were taken against ministers and senior officials who were responsible for overseeing
ministries and agencies where misuse of funds may have occurred. This included the dismissal of the Managing Director and senior officials
from Tanesco, and the Director General and senior officials at the Dar es Salaam port. The Permanent Secretary and Chief Medical Officer at
the Ministry of Health were also suspended although this action was not necessarily connected to perceptions of corruption or fraud. These
actions are encouraging in that they suggest there is some level of accountability for abuse of Government office. However, there is a need
to follow up dismissals with further investigation and legal action where appropriate. Since these individuals have been suspended one to
two years ago, PCCB investigations have been taken forward but no cases have been taken to the courts.
GBS DPs and the Government agreed in November 2012 to track action against corruption in health, energy and the port through the High
Level Dialogue on Corruption. The decision to prioritise these sectors was made jointly, reflecting high profile allegations of corruption and
significant DP investment in these sectors. A World Bank study published in May 2013 found that corruption was a significant source of
23
It is also possible to track law enforcement data, and see below (section 5(d)) for this, although this data should not be used as a proxy for the overall levels of corruption in society. For example, if more corruption
cases come to court this may indicate more corruption or more effective enforcement.
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PCCB updates, Press Reports
delays and inefficiency at the Dar es Salaam Port. For example, it suggested that wide divergence in customs valuations of merchandise is
an indicator of likely corruption – for example the customs value of one kg of fertilizer ranged between $0.39 and $5, while global prices
ranged around $0.6 - $0.8.
Tanesco has been the subject of a number of high profile allegations of corruption in recent years. A CAG report into Tanesco published in
April 2013 found that the former Managing Director had approved procurements despite significant conflicts of interest. In the energy
sector at least 4 long-term and large contracts and/or MoUs have been labeled “Emergency cases”, whereby normal regulations for
procurements are set aside thus undermining possibilities to analyze if best value for money was reached. This practice includes high risks
and the lack of competition and transparency could lead to unnecessary high spending in the sector.
During March 2014 there has been extensive media reporting around the contractual disputes relating to IPTL- a joint venture company
with whom TANESCO entered into a Power Purchasing Agreement in 1995 at a cost of $163 million. The reporting included details of
actions taken by various parties and stakeholders in the legal disputes including the GoURT. The circumstances of the case suggest
wrongdoing including potential corrupt actions. This merits further investigation by GoURT.
DPs supporting the health sector continue to push for information on the investigations addressing the suspension of MOHSW senior
management members. The former Chief Medical Officer was under investigation for corruption but was cleared of all charges and has now
been reinstated into the Prime Minister’s Office. Additionally, Health Basket Partners have jointly agreed with GoT to more closely tie action
on CAG and PPRA (Public Procurement Regulatory Administration) recommendations in the health sector as a condition for future health
basket distribution.
PCCB statistics
CAG audit reports
Looking at broader statistics on corruption investigations and prosecutions, whilst new cases do come into court every year, the number of
people disciplined either through administrative sanctions or court proceedings is much smaller than the likely number of corrupt
transactions. For example, taking the figure from the Transparency International Global Corruption Barometer that approximately half of all
adult Tanzanians have paid a bribe in the past year, the number of instances of petty bribery must be in the order of millions. However in
2012 (the last year for which full statistics are available), PCCB investigated some 1,178 cases, and 288 new cases were taken to court. In
recent years the percentage of total corruption cases ending in conviction in any given year has been around 7-10%, with 9-17% of cases
ending in acquittal, and the rest delayed to the following year. Also, at more junior levels, administrative sanctions are very under-used.
Administrative sanctions are not dependent on the courts but are entirely within the power of the executive and could be used much more.
For example in 2012, of 1,178 cases investigated by PCCB, administrative action was taken in only 27 cases. These figures suggest that,
overall, the likelihood of being caught and sanctioned for corruption remains extremely low.
4(f) Other measures of integrity in public life
The number of political and public sector leaders required to file Asset Declarations with the President's Office - Ethics Secretariat has
increased from approximately 3,000 to more than 13.000 in recent years. The percentage of leaders actually filing Asset Declarations timely
seems to have declined in 2013 (64%) after having increased to quite remarkable levels in 2011/12 (96%) and 2012/13 (91%). However, the
large number of declarations submitted after the set timeline may still significantly improve the total numbers for 2013/14. The Ethics
Secretariat has publicly named (in the newspapers) the senior leaders who have failed to file. The Ethics Secretariat has also taken steps to
train its investigators (most of whom are lay people) and to spot-check the accuracy/completeness of a sampling of declarations.
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4(g) Conclusions on corruption and integrity
The evidence reviewed shows a society where corruption is highly prevalent – although not more so than in most of Africa. According to the
TI-GCB and VoP surveys, a large number – perhaps as many as half – of all Tanzanians have paid a bribe in the past year. Public perceptions
of corruption amongst Tanzanians have significantly increased in recent years, but this is likely to be at least partly due to greater public
awareness and willingness to voice concerns. Experts’ and business leaders’ perceptions of corruption show a static to deteriorating trend.
Finally, the overall risk of being caught and sanctioned for corrupt practices remains low.
Ethics secretariat
Looking at cross-country comparisons, the level of corruption in Tanzania appears to be close to the average across Africa. There are African
countries which are judged to have less corruption than Tanzania (including Ghana, Rwanda Botswana, Zambia and Malawi), but there are
also countries where corruption is judged to be worse (including East African neighbors Kenya and Uganda, as well as others such as DRC
and Nigeria). For GBS DPs, the risk of corruption remains substantial.
Taking this context as given, the critical question for DPs providing General Budget Support is whether there is an active fight against
corruption in Tanzania. After some positive developments in 2012, there were few significant developments in the fight against corruption
in 2013. Work on prevention and investigation has continued, but administrative sanctions remain very under-used and critical cases are
not proceeding. There remain some significant concerns about the degree of political will to pursue an active fight against corruption.
i
WB Tanzania Economic Update 4, projection.
Ibid.
WB Tanzania Economic Update 4, projection.
iv
NBS
November 2013. Source BoT Dec 2013
vi
Preliminary figure from the RBA 2013
ii
iii
ix
Preliminary figure from the RBA 2013
13.
xii
xiii
Gold, coffee, tea, cashew nuts and cotton.
WB TEO Dec 2013
xv
Ibid. Tobacco, cotton and sisal.
Ibid.
BoT Dec 2013: from 13007,8 MUSD 2012 to 13588.3 MUST 2013
Ibid
xix
Ibid. Note that 2013 refers to the time period Dec 2012-Nov 2013 while 2012 refers to the time period Dec 2011-Nov 2012.
xx
WB TEO Dec 2013.
xxi
BoT MER Nov 2013.
xxii
World Bank: Tanzania Economic Update (annexes); Dec 2013
011/12. Both customs and domestic revenue departments recorded a decline in tax exemptions. That said, tax exemptions as percent of GDP remain relatively high, accounted for largely by exemptions of VAT and custom duties to private companies and individuals, particularly mining companies, and TIC registered companies.
xvi
xvii
xviii
give an indication
of the current fragmentation of the market.
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