The Prediction and Monitoring of Environmental impacts caused by CDM-AR Projects
Prof. Dr. ir. Bart MUYS
K.U.Leuven bart.muys@agr.kuleuven.ac.be
1. A sustainability framework for CDM-AR
1.1
Environment as part of Sustainable development
1.2
Sustainability framework
2. Environmental Impact in CDM-AR (demand)
3. Methods to assess Environmental Impact (supply)
3.1 Overview of methods
3.2 Selection of methods
4. Assessment Methods for CDM-AR
4.1 Programme design
4.2 Project design
4.3 Project monitoring and internal auditing
4.4 Project auditing and certification
5. Conclusions
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1.1. Environment as part of sustainability
WHAT IS SUSTAINABILITY ?
“When you figure out what sustainability is, let me know”
USDA economist, 1990
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”
WCED, 1987 (the Brundtland Report)
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Interpretation: Sustainability is…
• Something important
• Something good
• Something to do with ecology and economy at the same time
• Everybody talks about it
• Everybody understands it differently
• Everybody thinks he/she is implementing it
• Hence, something difficult to measure
• In conclusion, a very important concept, but unpractically defined
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• Sustainability : a state in which the
and the ecosystem are not degraded by human activities
• Development : evolution of increasing human welfare and well-being
• Sustainable development (SD): development which does not degrade
and ecosystem over the longer term (50/50)
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1.2. Sustainability framework for CDM-AR
(Madlener et al., 2003, modified after Lammerts van Bueren and Blom, 1998)
Social
Goal
Sustainable LULUCF project
Sustainability dimensions
Economic Environmental Institutional
Action path
Project design, planning and implementation
Control path
Project monitoring and evaluation
Sustainability issues
Targets
Strategies
Tasks
Guidelines
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Sustainability principles
Criteria
Indicators
Norms
Verifiers
6
Framework definitions (1/3)
• An Issue is a main theme or domain that should be covered to reach SD (e.g. The environmental issue). SD is essentially a multi-issue optimization process
• A principle is an accepted fundamental rule of
SD. It is formulated as a commandment (e.g. The protection function should be maintained, and where appropriate, enhanced)
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Framework definitions (2/3)
• A target is a long term planning objective aiming at the implementation of a principle
• A strategy a long-term methodological approach followed to reach a target
• A task is a concrete item of an action plan bringing targets and strategies to implementation
• A guideline is a set of practical instructions important for successful implementation of a task
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Framework definitions (3/3)
• A criterion describes the state of the system under compliance with a principle. It is formulated to allow a verdict (e.g. Soil erosion is minimized)
• An indicator is a variable indicating the level of compliance with a criterion
• A norm or threshold is a well-defined indicator value setting the boundary between compliance and noncompliance to a criterion
• A verifier is a tool or instrument to measure an indicator
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Framework for CDM-AR: example
Hierarchical level
Aim
Dimension
Example
Sustainable LULUCF project
Environmental
Action path:
Issue Ecosystem protection
Target
Strategy
Erosion control
Fight soil erosion through preventive action
Task
Guideline
Preventive erosion control during road construction works
Guideline for good environmental practice concerning the protection of stream flows during road construction works
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Framework for CDM-AR: example
Hierarchical level Example
Aim Sustainable LULUCF project
Dimension Environmental
Control path:
Principle
Criterion
Indicator
Norm
Verifier
The protection function shall be maintained and, if appropriate, enhanced
Soil erosion is minimized
Annual sediment loss in tonnes/ha
Maximum soil loss = 10 tonnes/ha/year
Calculation of USLE (Universal Soil Loss
Equation)
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Principles under the Environmental Issue
1.
The overall GHG balance (including carbon in peat and soil,
N2O, CH4, etc.) of the project shall be positive
2.
Forest area shall be conserved or restored, forest vitality and condition shall be maintained and where appropriate enhanced
3.
The Productive function of the forest shall be maintained, forest regeneration secured and sustainable harvest promoted
4.
Biodiversity, ecological processes and life support functions of the ecosystem shall be maintained, and where appropriate, restored
5.
The Protection function (water, soil) shall be maintained and where appropriate restored
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Examples of criteria for environmental principle 4
(biodiversity)
1.
Existing biological, genetic and habitat diversity are maintained and conserved where necessary
2.
Numbers, area and distribution of Landscapes, forest types and habitats with specific biodiversity values are conserved
3.
Plantation forests are only accepted if they do not replace natural forests, demonstrate to decrease pressure on the natural systems and demonstrate local socio-economic benefits
4.
Afforestation/reforestation makes maximal use of native species; use of exotics is minimized and is dependent on a number of restrictions
5.
The use of biocides, fertilizer, genetically modified organisms, non native plant, animal, pest and disease species is not allowed or regulated under strict conditions
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Example of indicators for environmental principle 4, criterion 1 (conservation of biodiversity) modified from national C&I of ITTO for natural tropical forests
• Percentage of original range occupied by selected endangered, rare and threatened species.
• Existence and implementation of a strategy for in situ and/or ex situ conservation of the genetic variation within commercial, endangered, rare and threatened species of flora and fauna.
• Existence and implementation of management guidelines to:
(a) keep undisturbed a part of each AR zone, (b) protect endangered, rare and threatened species of flora and fauna, and (c) protect features of special biological interest, such as river banks, cliffs, nesting sites, niches and keystone species.
• Existence and implementation of procedures for assessing changes of biological diversity of the production forests, compared with areas in the same forest type kept free from human intervention.
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Indicators should meet following criteria:
• Cost effective and simple in measuring
• Sensitive to the considered principle and criterion
• Universally applicable (rule for auditing, recommendation for monitoring)
• Quantitative
• Spatially explicit
• Not arbitrarily chosen but based on a solid ecological concept. We propose the ecosystem exergy concept
• Measuring as much as possible endpoints in the cause-effect chain
• Low in number
• Integrate the time aspect
• Distinguish reversible from irreversible impacts
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Recommendations concerning environmental issues (1/2)
1.
RECOMMENDATIONS CONCERNING THE ACTION
PATH (PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION PHASE)
1.1.
All 6 environmental issues should be adopted in CDM-AR project design and management plan
1.3.
Guidelines for good environmental practice in CDM-AR projects must be developed and adopted
1.4
Environmental risk and uncertainty analysis must be integrated in the design and management of a CDM-AR project
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Recommendations concerning environmental issues (2/2)
2 . RECOMMENDATIONS CONCERNING THE EVALUATION PATH (MONITORING
AND ASSESSMENT PHASE)
2.1. Project initiators should create, use and update a database integrating maps, inventory and monitoring data of all environmental information concerning the project area
2.2. The assessment tools used for monitoring and auditing must be flexible to cope with variable experience and data availability
2.3 Assessment tools should be standardized as far as possible
2.4 The use of a functional unit to express environmental impacts is advisable
(e.g. 1 Ton of avoided or reduced CO
2
).
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• Kyoto protocol (1997): no rules specified
• CoP9 Milano (2003): Modalities and Procedures for
AR project activities under the CDM in the 1st. commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol
– Many rules and guidelines on carbon accounting (baseline, additionality, non-permanence) with reference to the IPCC
Good Practice Guidance for Land use, Land-Use Change and Forestry.
– Very few explanation on other environmental and socioeconomic issues. More detail only in annex B under the contents of a Project Design Document (PDD)
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Environmental impacts in PDD
• describe the project activity, the present environmental conditions including climate, hydrology, soils, ecosystems, and the possible presence of rare of endangered species and their habitats. They also mention that the PDD should also include the following information on the environmental impact of the project activity:
• Include documentation on the analysis of the environmental impacts of the project activity, including impacts on biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and impacts outside the project boundary of the proposed afforestation and reforestation project activity under the CDM. This analysis should include, where applicable, information on, inter alia, hydrology, soils, risk of fires, pests and diseases;
• If any negative impact is considered significant by the project participants or the host Party, a statement that project participants have undertaken an environmental impact assessment, in accordance with the procedures required by the host Party, including conclusions and all references to support documentation.
Consequence: the assessment methods for
CDM-AR must at least include these aspects
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• A variety of methods for sustainability assessment is available
• The question is which ones can best serve our goals and meet the requirements of CoP9
• Rule: not start from the method, but from the problem to solve (using a stakeholders approach)
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3.1 Overview of methods
• General:
Environmental legislation
• Action path (methods for design, planning and implementation)
– Design and Planning
• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
• Risk Analysis
– Implementation
• Codes of Good Environmental Practice
• Decision Support Systems (DSS) or Knowledge Based
Systems (KBS)
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3.1 Overview of methods
• Evaluation path (methods for monitoring and auditing)
– State of the Environment Reporting
– Environmental auditing (including standards of P,C&I of SFM)
– Life Cycle Assessment
– Cost/Benefit Analysis
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Environmental legislation
• Objective: prevention, control and punition
• Characteristics:
– Develops slowly following increased human pressure on natural resources
– Based on the Polluter pays principle (taxes, charges, fines, compensation for damage)
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Environmental Impact Assessment
• Definition: a procedure for encouraging decision-makers to take account of the possible effects of development investments on environmental quality and natural resource productivity before any decision is made
• Objective: Prevention of environmental damage or degradation as a result of human action
• Characteristics: follows a systematic interdisciplinary approach to produce an
Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)
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Strategic Environmental Impact
Assessment (sEIA)
• Definition: an EIA for policies and programmes on a wider geographical level
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Risk analysis
• Concept: reduce risks to ALARA level (as low as reasonably acceptable)
• Objective: assess the probability of an accident and of the damage it would cause; determine the ALARA level
• Types of risk: technical or environmental, social, marketing, juridical, financial.
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•Operational tool for daily practice
•Example: the South African code of good harvesting practice, used for:
•Planning of forest roads, extraction routes and timber harvesting
•Monitoring of operations in progress
•Feedback during and after completion of the operations
(auditing)
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Codes of good environmental practice. Example: the South
African harvesting code of practice
•The code first defines the values to care for:
•Soil
•Water
•Forest health
•Scientific and ecological interests
•Paleontological, archaeological and historical values
•Aesthetic and recreational values
•Human resources
•Commercial interests
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Codes of good environmental practice. Example: the South
African harvesting code of practice
•The code gives rules of practice for:
•Construction of forest roads, landings and extraction routes
•Timber harvesting
•Post harvesting operations
•For each activity the following aspects are explained:
•The factors influencing the activity
•Potential effects of bad practice
•Positive effects of good practice
•Methods of reducing potential negative effects
•Essential elements of the operational plan
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• Sustainable forest management depends on decisions. The right decisions can be hard to make because of:
– the complexity of the problem.
– the inherent uncertainties in the outcome.
– The multiple objectives that have to be achieved, which means that progress in one direction may impede negative effects in others. In such case a decision maker must trade off benefits in one area against cost in another.
– different perspectives may lead to different conclusions.
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Decision support systems: a definition
• A decision support system is a computer software package, designed and operated to model or otherwise represent the structure of a decision problem and thus allow the user(s) to identify and select a preferred strategy or other course of action from two or more alternatives against a pre-determined set of criteria.
• A DSS may be defined by its capabilities in several critical areas:
Aimed at poorly structured, underspecified problems
Combine the use of models or analytical techniques with traditional data access and retrieval functions
Easy to use by non computer specialists in an interactive mode
Emphasize flexibility and adaptability to accommodate changes in the decision making approach of the end-user
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• Takes spatial variation into account: ideal for land management
• Uses GIS technology
• Scales up point models to the landscape level
• Exemple: AFFOREST: a spatial decision support system for afforestation optimizing for carbon sequestration, groundwater recharge and nitrate leaching
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Second step: analysing the type of question
Time Afforestation Strategy
Initial system Metamodel
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Afforested system
33
Evaluation of Decision support systems for sustainable forest management
Strengths:
• user friendly
• able to give simple answers to complex questions
• adapted to specific or local problems
• can include all aspects of sustainability
• can include a lot of existing expert knowledge
• able to model in time (prediction) and space
Weaknesses:
• very complex and expensive to design
• very few systems are operational
• user doesn’t know or understand what is behind
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State of the Environment Reporting
• Objective: Long-term monitoring of trends; describe measures and policies taken
• Steps: data acquirement; storage; analysis; statistics; reliability
• Examples: State of the World report (world watch institute); Dobris assessment (European Environment
Agency); Company reports (as part of annual reports)
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Standards of P,C&I of SFM
• The most widespread evaluation tool for sustainable forest management
• More than 150 standards available worldwide
• Standards for the national and for the Forest
Management Unit (FMU) level:
– National standards: for evaluating the effectiveness of the national forest policy
– FMU standards: for evaluating the sustainability of the management and for forest certification (FSC,
ISO 14000, PEFC)
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• Strengths:
– BATNEEC method for SFM evaluation: Best Available Technique
Not Entailing an Excessive Cost
– Standards adapted to local conditions and local problems
– Low technical skills required to use
• Weaknesses:
– Poor scientific base (what do they exactly intend to measure?)
– Arbitrary choice of C&I
– Arbitrary weights attributed to C&I
– Not a quantitative, but a descriptive approach (when it is sustainable, how sustainable is it?)
– No clear reference system
– No universal applicability (important if you want to compare different management systems or different wood products)
– Poor uniformity between standards in contents and semantics
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• Method developed in industry to compare environmental impact of products and production processes with a clear emphasis on continuous improvement
• Quantitative approach, mass balances of inputs and outputs
• Including the complete life cycle of a product from cradle to grave
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Life Cycle Assessment: an ISO
14040 standardised stepwise procedure
Life Cycle Assessment ( (LCA) framework
1. Definition of goal and scope
2. Life cycle
Inventory
(LCI)
4. Interpretation
(including sensitivity analysis, aggregation and conclusion)
3. Life cycle
Impact
Assessment
(LCIA)
Applications:
-product design and product optimisation
- planning
- marketing
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• It does not include socio-economic and cultural aspects; it is restricted to the environmental aspects of sustainability
• It is more standardized (stepwise methodology, linearity, no double counting, sensitivity analysis)
• It is more quantitative and less subjective
• It is, in principle, universally applicable: all land use systems and climate conditions
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• System boundaries: In the definition of goal and scope, it is decided which aspects and processes will be part of the study and which ones will be excluded
• Functional unit: It is the unit of the end product to which each impact is expressed (e.g. one newspaper in the case of an LCA for paper; one km in the case of an LCA for vehicle fuels, etc.)
• Impact category: an LCIA is performed per impact category: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions , extraction of abiotic resources, eutrophication, acidification, human health, land use , etc.
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• Example 1. Impact category GHG emissions in an LCA for electricity production from bioenergy crops (short rotation coppice) (1/3)
– Goal and scope: which coppice system is having the strongest GHG emission reduction?
– Inventory analysis (literature study)
– Impact analysis in two steps:
• dynamic modelling with GORCAM (Graz Oak Ridge
Carbon Accounting Model)
• express impact per functional unit (1 Kwh of electricity+heat)
• Compare with a reference system (leaving the land setaside and produce electricity from natural gas)
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Impact assessment: modelling the GHG balance
(2/3)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
Bodem A
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Tijd [jaar]
Soil Dead organic matter Trees Displaced foss. fuels Fossil fuel input
• carbon sequestration is low
• substitution for fossil fuels decreases GHG emissions substantially
• overall GHG emission reduction is very high
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Impact assessment: results per functional unit (3/3)
(Lettens et al. 2002)
1600
1200
800
Performance per area
400
0 fk
-400 emissie productsysteem
(per ha) emissie referentiesysteem (per ha) broeikasgasemissie (per ha) wilg
Miscanthus hakhout
0,06
0,04
0,02
0
0,14
0,12
0,1
0,08
Performance per energy unit produced broeikasgasemissie (per geproduceerde GJ)
• Performance on a ha basis differs from the one on an energetic basis
• Best performance of mixed native coppice on an energetic basis explained by higher carbon sequestration in soil, lower N fuel use
2
0-emission and lower fossil
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Example 2. Impact category land use for LULUCF projects
(Land use, land use change and forestry) in the framework of the Kyoto protocol (1/7)
– Goal and scope: which forestry project will have the lowest land use impact?
– Inventory analysis: literature data and field observations
– Impact assessment
• method Muys and Garcia (2002) has 17 quantitative indicators comparing the exergy level of the land use system with the exergy level of the climax system at the same site. Indicators cover 4 themes (soil, water, vegetation structure and biodiversity)
• expressing the impact per functional unit of 1 ton CO2 emission reduction
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• Land use Impact assessment (2/7)
– The land use impact score is the difference in land quality between the present land use and the reference system, multiplied by the time/space requirement to produce one functional unit.
Q
Q
1
Q reference system.
Score
Q *
area * time
FU
* FU
1
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Q land use. t
46
• Land use impact assessment indicators (3/7)
S1
S2
S3
Indicator
Soil compaction
Soil structure disturbance
Soil erosion
i
Q area i
*
perm ref
perm i
total area * perm ref
* 100 worked area * depth
* total time area rotation period
* 100
100 * ( USLE ) inm
Total Rootable Soil depth
1 m
.
* 100
Reference
100% unaffected at soil permeability ref
100% undisturbed
No soil erosion
S4 Cation
Exchange
Capacity
(CEC)
1
CEC act
CEC ref
* 100
CEC ref
S6 Base
Saturation
1
Base Sat act
Base Sat ref
* 100
Base Sat ref
W1 Evapotranspiration
1
evapotrans piration act evapotrans piration ref
* 100
Evapotranpirati on ref.
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• Land use impact assessment indicators (4/7)
W2 Surface runoff surface runoff prec .
evapotranp
* 100
No surface runoff
V1 Total aboveground living biomass
(TAB)
1
TAB act
TAB ref
* 100
Total above ground living biomass ref
V2 Leaf area index (LAI)
V3 Height
V4 Free Net
Primary
Production
(fNPP)
1
LAI act
LAI ref
* 100
1
Height act
Height ref
* 100
1
NPP act
harvested biomass
NPP ref
* 100
Leaf Area
Index ref
Height ref
Net Primary
Production ref
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Land use impact assessment indicators (5/7)
V5 Crop biomass
1
crop biomass total biomass
* 100
No crop species or harvest
B1
B2
B3
B4
Artificial change of water balance
Liming, fertilisation, empoverishment
1
area affected total area time
* rotation period
* 100
1
area affected total area time rotation
* period
* 100
Biocides
Cover of exotic species
1
area irr
Total area drain area
* 100
exotic total species species cov er cov er
* 100
No irrigation or drainage.
No area affected
No area affected
100% native species
B5 Number of species
1
number of number of species act species ref
* 100
Species richness ref
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land use impact per unit of area (6/7)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 la nd bo uw
V
LA
E
N
Bodem
Water
B
O
S
V
LA
E
N
A
G
R
M
U
B
O
V
LA
S
V
LA
n
N
TR ie uw
O
S
V
LA
M
U
B
O
P
a fr om
o ud on ta an
w ou d
O
P
fi jn bo s
P
LA
N
TR
P
LA
N
TR
P
B
O
O
P
p
S
TR
O
P
o
P
B
O
S
TR
P
B
P
LA la nt ag e nb eh ee
O
P
s el
O
S rd ec tie
TR
O
P ve
k
z w er ap fla nd
P
B
O
S
TR bo uw
O
P
o nt bo ss in g
Vegetatie
Biodiversiteit
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• all land use types can be compared
• Impact of all land uses on soil and water is low, except for tropical deforestation
• natural systems have lowest impact
• intensively managed plantations systems have higher impact than multifunctional forests
• overall impact of plantation forest does not seem much higher than that of fijnbos vegetation, when afromontane forest was chosen as a reference
• impact of selective logging and shifting cultivation in tropical forest is low
50
Land use impact per FU of 1 ton CO
2
(7/7)
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Bodem
Water
ENBOSVLA
ENAGRVLA
MUBOSVLA nieuw
MUBOSVLA oud
Vegetatie
Biodiversiteit
PLANTROP
PBOSTROP
Biodiversiteit
Vegetatie
Water THEMA
Bodem
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• result of multiplying land use impact with area*time needed to produce 1 FU
• intensive energy crops have a very low impact, because their time*space requirement per ton
CO2 emission reduction is very low
• multifunctional forests have a high impact, because their time*space requirement per FU is very high
51
Evaluation of LCA for sustainable forest management
Strengths
• Transparent, objective, quantitative approach
• Suitable for comparing options
• Suitable for making improvement
• Compatible with the exergy law
Weaknesses
• Only for the environmental aspects of sustainability (other aspects can be done with cost benefit analysis
• Data requirements can be high
• More difficult than C&I to perform
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3.2. Stakeholders’ driven selection of methods
What sustainability concerns do different stakeholders of CDM-
AR projects have?
Policy makers (POL): Does the national CDM-AR Scheme meet the requirements of SD?
Forest managers (MAN): Does the FM plan and its implementation meet the requirements of SD?
Managers of forest industry (IND): Which production scheme (in terms of silviculture, harvesting and transport) has the lowest environmental impact?
End consumers (CON): Does a purchased wooden product comes from sustainable forest?
Conservation group (NGO): What is the environmental impact of afforestation in a particular zone?
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Criteria and Indicators (C&I)
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
Knowledge-based Systems (KBS)
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
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The best fits between questions and methods to answer (Baelemans &
Muys, 1998)
POL MAN INV CON NGO
C&I -0,20 0,42 -0.66 0,36 -0,02
LCA 0.18 -0.36 0,66 -0,14 -0.20
KBS -0,56 0,62 -0.43 0,17 0,01
EIA 0,36 -0,07 -0.11 -0.30 0,65
CBA 0.10 -0.56 0,34 0,26 -0.49
POL EIA (not significant)
MAN KBS (significant)
IND LCA (significant)
CON C&I (not significant)
NGO EIA (significant)
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4. Assessment Methods for CDM-AR
• For a programme (country):
– Programme design: Strategic Environmental Impact
Assessment (sEIA) and, if not in place, Environmental
Legislation
• For a project:
– Project design: Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), including Risk Analysis
– Project monitoring and internal auditing: Land Use Impact
Assessment (a new method based on LCA), leading to an annual State of the Environment Report
– External auditing: P,C&I leading to SFM certification
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4.1 Programme design: Environmental legislation and Strategic Environmental
Impact Assessment
•
Countries that did not yet include EIA in their legislation or did not include CDM-AR projects in their EIA legislation may want to do so. The latter is probably only due for big projects from a certain surface area onwards.
Small-scale projects may be exempt from this obligation.
The definition of a small-scale project is under discussion at SBSTA.
•
A strategic or programmatic EIA is an EIA for policies and programmes on a wider geographical level. This is recommendable in countries where CDM-AR may become a big issue and where some general rules and procedures must be developed, as suggested in the CoP9
Decision.
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4.2 Project design: Environmental Impact
Assessment (including risk analysis)
• The output of the EIA is EIS, a document meeting government requirements and added as part of the PDD for UNFCCC.
Important themes to include are: soil erosion, water balance, biodiversity, landscape aesthetics, ecosystem functioning
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4.3 Project monitoring and internal auditing:
Land use Impact Assessment
• The proposed Land Use Impact Assessment method was developed by Muys and Garcia (2002). It divides the landscape in homogeneous sites (based on climate, soil and topography) and per site, it compares the quality of the actual land use with the quality of a reference state, being the Potential Natural Vegetation of that site.
This is done for 17 indicators, belonging to 4 thematic groups: soil, water, vegetation structure and biodiversity. The method is scale independent and functions for all land uses anywhere in the world.
The data demand is relatively low and it allows to compare different projects among each other. Examples for different Land use, Landuse change and forestry (LULUCF) projects world wide are given.
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4.4. Project auditing and certification:
Environmental auditing (standards of P, C &
I, state of the Environment reporting)
•
A national standard for CDM-AR can easily be developed from an existing standard for evaluation and certification of
SFM
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•
It can be concluded that instruments for environmental management and assessment are complementary to each other. For further development in CDM-AR it is important that the different instruments used at different levels and stages in the decision process, use as much as possible the same principles, criteria and indicators.
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