Competition and Cooperation in
Societal and Technological Systems of Systems
Keynote Address:
2007 IEEE International Conference
on
Systems, Man, and Cybernetics:
Smart Cooperative Systems and Cybernetics
Advancing Knowledge and Security for Humanity
Keith W. Hipel
University Professor
Conflict Analysis Group
Department of Systems Design Engineering
University of Waterloo
1
DEFINITION OF A CANADIAN
A Canadian
is an American
who carries a Medicare Card
but
does not carry a gun.
2
ABORIGINAL PLACE NAMES
• Canada: means “village” in the Huron language.
• Ontario: “beautiful lake” in Huron
• Toronto: “a place of meeting” in Huron
• Nunavut: “our land” in Inuktitut
• Ottawa: “to trade” from the Algonquin language
• Yukon: “great river” in the Loucheux language
• Quebec: “narrow passage” in Algonquin
• Saskatchewan: “swift flowing river” from the Cree language
3
PURPOSE
Present an encompassing perspective on competition and
cooperation among multiple participants strategically interacting
within societal and technological systems of systems according to
their underlying value systems as they strive to reach their goals.
By appreciating the reality that systems of systems are inhabited by
multiple participants or agents having multiple objectives, one can
adhere to adaptive and integrative decision making principles to
properly design, construct, maintain, and operate systems of systems
that serve the interests of stakeholders in a fair and sustainable
manner throughout the systems’ life cycles.
4
IN A NUTSHELL
I.
Multiple participants
II.
Ethics
Positively harness competition and cooperation
New field of
Ethical Systems of Systems Design Engineering
5
CONTENTS
• Systems of Systems
• World System of Systems
• Societal System of Systems
– Classification of Societal Conflict Models
– Competition and cooperation in a Groundwater
Contamination Dispute
– Ethics in Conflict Behaviour and Policy Design
• Intelligent System of Systems
• Closing Remarks
6
SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS (SoS)
• Solid paradigm on which to build methodologies and techniques in
systems, man, and cybernetics.
• Alternative labels:
– Federation of Systems
– Systems Family
7
Societal
System of Systems
Natural
System of Systems
By-products
Atmosphere
(air)
Energy
Biosphere
(life)
Services and
Infrastructure
Agriculture
Hydrosphere
(water)
Industry
Lithosphere
(soil and rock)
Resources
Societal
Induced Effects
Environmental
System of Systems
Societal and Environmental Systems of Systems
8
Solar
Wind
Tidal and
Wave
R
En ene
erg wab
y S le
ou
rce
s
Thermosphere
Geothermal
Mesosphere
Stratosphere
Ozone layer
Troposphere
Holds 75% of gaseous mass and
water
Hydropower
O2
CO 2
CO
2
O
2
Biomass
Nuclear
Coil
Oil
Gas
Interactions among Energy and Atmospheric Systems of Systems
9
SoS CHARACTERISTICS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Operational independence of each individual system
Managerial independence of an individual system
Geographical distribution of individual systems is often large
Emergent behaviour
Evolutionary development
Self-organization
Adaptation
(Sage and Biemer, 2007;Sage and Cuppan, 2001; Maier, 1998)
10
KEY SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS METHODOLOGIES
•
•
•
•
Complex adaptive systems
Chaos theory
Cybernetics
A rich range of approaches to systems modelling and analysis
A comprehensive systems of systems theory remains to be developed
11
COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
• Different kinds of agents competing and cooperating with one
another.
Are intelligent
• Agents
Can adapt
Can learn
Behave according to their value
systems
• Decision making involving agents may be distributed over space and
time, and within and among different types of systems.
• Origins: evolutionary biology, computer science and social design
• Example: Electrical supply system in North America.
12
KEY SYSTEMS COMPONENTS
• Multiple participants
Value systems
• Ethics
Interaction Protocols
Participants can be purely competitive or follow different
levels of cooperation.
13
ETHICAL CONFLICT LEADERSHIP
Differences in value systems and underlying ethics and beliefs provide
the basic fuel for igniting and maintaining conflict.
Society has a duty to encourage ethical value systems for its citizens.
Purposeful ethical design of systems of systems coupled with
individuals adhering to personal ethical principles are needed to
create a robust and reliable society that will persist.
14
WORLD SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
• Environmental
• Societal
• Intelligent
• Integrated
15
Multiple Participant-Multiple Objective
Systems of Systems
Environmental
System of Systems
Integrated
System of Systems
Societal
System of Systems
Intelligent
System of Systems
Types of Multiple Participant-Multiple Objective Systems of Systems
16
EXAMPLES OF SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
• Environmental System of Systems
Hydrological, atmospheric, zoological, botanical, ecological and
geological systems.
• Societal System of Systems
Economical, political, agricultural, industrial, governmental,
infrastructure and city systems.
• Intelligent System of Systems
Automated bidding and mechatronic production systems.
• Integrated System of Systems
North American electrical supply system, flood control system in
Japan, eBay, and modern aircraft.
17
WORLD SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
• Environmental
• Societal
• Intelligent
• Integrated
18
The Hydrological Cycle
19
Societal
System of Systems
Natural
System of Systems
By-products
Atmosphere
(air)
Energy
Biosphere
(life)
Services and
Infrastructure
Agriculture
Hydrosphere
(water)
Industry
Lithosphere
(soil and rock)
Resources
Societal
Induced Effects
Environmental
System of Systems
Societal and Environmental Systems of Systems
20
WORLD SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
• Environmental
• Societal
• Intelligent
• Integrated
21
Many types of societal
systems of systems
By
Products
Natural
Effects
Services
Defence
and space
ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
Energy
Human-induced
Atmosphere
Water
Effects
Land
…
Infrastructure and
Transportation
…
Biological Systems
SOCIETAL SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
Resources
Societal and Environmental Systems of Systems
22
SOCIETAL SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
• Classification of Societal Conflict Models
• Competition and Cooperation in a Groundwater Contamination
Dispute
• Ethics in Conflict Behaviour and Policy Design
23
DECISION MAKING
Must consider physical realm of
nature
and the social world of
humankind
24
Societal
Systems
Models
Physical
Systems
Models
The Duality of Systems Modeling of a Realworld Problem
25
SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS TOOLBOX
A wide range of systems tools from both the physical and decision
sciences are required to investigate a given problem in sustainable
development.
Decision Support Systems (DSSs) allow these systems tools to be
conveniently used in practice.
26
CLASSIFICATION OF SOCIETAL
CONFLICT MODELS
• Conflicts inevitably arise whenever humans interact.
Example: environmentalists are in conflict with private companies
that would like to export water in bulk quantities.
• Because of the ubiquitous nature of conflict, research in conflict
resolution has taken place in a wide range of disciplines.
• Many formal models for use in conflict resolution and decision
making situations were developed in the fields of
Operational Research and Systems Engineering.
27
GENEALOGY OF FORMAL CONFLICT
MODELS
Game Theory
Quantitative Procedures
Nonquantitative
Approaches
Metagame
Analysis
Conflict
Analysis
Normal
Form
Extensive Form . . .
Cooperative Game
Theory
Drama
Theory
Graph Model for Conflict
Resolution
28
PREFERENCES
• Would you like to have tea or coffee to drink.
– Quantitative response: I have a utility value of 1.9673 for coffee and
1.0000 for tea.
– Human response: I would prefer to drink tea. Thank you.
• Quantitative preferences:
– Cardinal number is assigned to each state or object (ex. Dollars or utility
value).
• Non-quantitative or relative preferences:
– One state is either more preferred, less preferred or equally preferred to
another.
29
TYPES OF RELATIVE PREFERENCES
• Ordinal
• Strictly ordinal
Transitive
• Intransitive
• Unknown
• Greatly more (or less) preferred
30
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
• Handles a rich range of relative preferences
Takes into account a given decision maker’s value system
• Models both independent (noncooperative) and coalitional
(cooperative behaviour)
• Provides key strategic guidance for reaching win/win resolutions
31
Competition and Cooperation
Noncooperative
Behaviour
Cooperative
Behaviour
Nash
General Metarationality
Coalitions
Coalitional versions
Symmetric
Metarationality
of the
Sequential Stability
noncooperative
Limited Move Stability
solution concepts
Nonmyopic
32
COMPETITION AND COOPERATION IN A
GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION DISPUTE
33
MODELING PHILOSOPHY OF THE GRAPH
MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
• Determine the best a decision maker can do on his or her own.
• Check if the decision maker can do even better by cooperating with
others through coalition formation.
34
ELMIRA GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION
DISPUTE
• Elmira is a town of 7,500 residents located in Southern Ontario,
Canada.
• Municipal water is drawn from an underground aquifer.
• In late 1989, the Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MoE)
discovered that the aquifer was contaminated by a carcinogen Nnitroso demethylamine (NDMA).
• Uniroyal Chemical Ltd. (Uniroyal) operates NDMA-producing
processes.
35
ELMIRA GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION
DISPUTE
• MoE issued a Control Order to Uniroyal to clean up the
contaminants.
• Uniroyal appealed the Control Order.
• Regional Municipality of Waterloo and Woolwich Township (Local
Government) hired consultants and obtained legal advice.
• Negotiations involving the three DM’s took place in mid-1991.
Study the negotiations using GMCR II
36
GMCR II
A flexible and comprehensive Decision Support System which
allows the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution methodology to be
applied to practical real world problems.
37
INPUT
DATA
SUBSYSTEM
INPUT
DATA
SUBSYSTEM
Decision Makers
Decision Makers
Options
Options
Feasible States
Feasible States
State Transitions
State Transitions
Preferences
Preferences
ANALYSIS ENGINE
USER
INTERFACE
USER
INTERFACE
GMCR II
Coalition Analysis
OUTPUT DATA
DATA SUBSYSTEM
SUBSYSTEM
OUTPUT
Individual
Stabilities
Individual
Stabilities
Equilibria
Equilibria
Coalition
Stability
Coalition
Stability
GMCR II Structure
38
APPLYING THE GRAPH MODEL FOR
CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Real - world Conflict
Decision Makers
Options
Feasible States
Modeling
Allowable State
Transitions
Relative Preferences
Individual Stabilities
Equilibria
Analysis
Interpretation and
Sensitivity Analyses
Information to Assist
Decision Makers
39
Evolution of the Elmira Conflict from the Status Quo, to a
Transitional Non-cooperative Equilibrium and to a Final
Cooperative Coalition Equilibrium
Status
Quo
Transitional Noncooperative
Equilibrium
Cooperative
Equilibrium
N
N
Y
2. Delay
Y
Y
N
3. Accept
N
N
Y
4. Abandon
N
N
N
5. Insist
N
Y
Y
State Number
1
5
8
MoE
1. Modify
Uniroyal
Local
Government
40
DISPLAYING DMs AND OPTIONS IN THE
ELMIRA CONFLICT MODEL
41
DIALOG BOX FOR THE ENTRY OF
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE OPTIONS
42
DISPLAYING THE LIST OF FEASIBLE STATES
43
DIALOG BOX FOR SPECIFYING
IRREVERSIBLE OPTIONS
44
DIALOG BOX FOR RELATIVE PREFERENCE
ELICITATION
45
DIALOG BOX FOR ENTERING OPTION PRIORITIZING
PREFERENCE STATEMENT FOR MoE
46
OPTION PRIORIZING FOR MoE
Preference
Statements
-4
Explanation
MoE most prefers that Uniroyal not abandon its Elmira
plant.
3
Next, MoE would like Uniroyal to accept the current
Control Order.
-2
MoE then prefers that Uniroyal not delay the appeal
process.
-1
MoE would not like to modify the Control Order.
5 iff -1
MoE prefers that Local Government insists that the
original Control Order be applied (5), if and only if (iff) it
does not modify the Control Order (-1) itself.
47
STATE RANKING FOR MOE RESULTING
FROM OPTION PRIORITIZING
48
OPTION PRIORITIZATION
• Provides an operational approach for conveniently eliciting the
relative preferences of a decision maker.
Clearly reveals the underlying value systems of the decision makers
through the prioritization of preference statements.
49
ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
• GMCR II analyzes every state for stability for each DM according to
all of the solution concepts in Table 1.
GMCR II CAN DISPLAY
• Individual stability results.
• Equilibria according to the preferences of a given decision maker.
• Customized equilibria after the user specifies the kind of solution
concept each decision maker should follow.
• Common features of the equilibria.
• Equilibria which contain specified patterns desired by the user.
50
COALITION ANALYSIS
• MoE and Uniroyal together control the transition from state 5 to 8.
• Both are better off at state 8 than at state 5.
On October 7, 1991, MoE and Uniroyal dramatically announced an
agreement on a modified version of the original Control Order,
which moved the conflict from the non-cooperative equilibrium at
state 5 to the cooperative equilibrium at state 8.
This is called an Equilibrium Jump.
51
Evolution of the Elmira Conflict from the Status
Quo, to a Transitional Non-cooperative Equilibrium
and to a Final Cooperative Coalition Equilibrium
Status
Quo
Transitional Noncooperative
Equilibrium
Cooperative
Equilibrium
N
N
Y
2. Delay
Y
Y
N
3. Accept
N
N
Y
4. Abandon
N
N
N
5. Insist
N
Y
Y
State Number
1
5
8
MoE
1. Modify
Uniroyal
Local
Government
52
CONCLUSIONS
• As illustrated by the Elmira conflict, GMCR II can be conveniently
applied to an actual conflict.
• GMCR II can determine non-cooperative equilibria which reflect the
best a DM can do on his or her own when a given equilibrium is
reached.
• GMCR II can indicate when beneficial coalitions can be formed so
that coalition members can achieve even better results.
53
THE GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT
RESOLUTION: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
• Identifying opportunities for coalition formation to move to a
mutually preferred stable outcome
• Handling emotions and strength of preference
• Tracing the evolution of a conflict to a final outcome
• Taking care of uncertain preference information
• Incorporating policy analysis into a conflict study
• Modeling attitudes and misperceptions
• Determining strategic implications of misperceptions
• Having efficient algorithms for handling large conflicts
54
ETHICS IN CONFLICT BEHAVIOR AND
POLICY DESIGN
• A person’s or an organization’s ethics or value system is
reflected by its preferences and the actions it takes in a
given decision situation.
• Illustration:
The Provincial Government of Newfoundland and Labrador most
prefers to lift A ban on bulk water exports because of the economic
benefits that can be gained by higher-priced water.
The Government prefers economic gain over environmental protection.
From the Environmentalists’ viewpoint, the Government is unethical.
55
DESIGN OPPORTUNITY
Great need for responsible and ethical designs of policies,
governance organizations and associated infrastructure underlying
our societal systems of systems
Misplaced value systems are causing havoc around the globe.
56
MISPLACED VALUE SYSTEM
A Fire Fighting
Negotiating System
Using the
Unidimensional Value
Of
Bottom Line Economics
57
58
TRAGEDY OF COMMONS
• Irresponsible utilization of a common resource due to individual greed
causes the destruction of the resource.
• Example: One nation continues to harvest an endangered species of fish,
resulting in the extinction of the fish, since other nations do likewise.
• Societies are participating in innumerable versions of Tragedies of the
Commons as human populations explode and common resources are
depleted.
Societies require ethical sustainable behavior within the confines of
enforceable international agreements closely connected to trade agreements.
59
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
The economic needs of society are met in a manner which maintains a
healthy environment for present and future generations.
The earth is not an infinite source of raw materials nor an infinite sink
for absorbing wastes.
Inherent conflict:
Economics versus Environmental Protection
Future generations and nature are not sitting at the bargaining table.
60
EASTER ISLAND
• The Moai people on Easter Island destroyed their environment by
cutting down all of the trees.
• When the Dutch explorer Jacob Rogereen arrived on Easter Island
on Easter Sunday, 1722, the Moai people had disappeared.
• Only large stone statues of grotesquely-shaped humans remain as
tombstones marking a once great culture.
61
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
• Prioritize profits of large corporations, bottom-line economics, and
protection of foreign investments.
• Directly challenge national social and environmental policies, laws
and regulations.
Cause social hardship and environmental devastation.
62
AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Value system is in reverse.
Society serves the system.
Financial system should serve society.
Unethical and unfair to individual citizens.
63
AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Removal of regulations protecting society
Market “fox” is guarding the chicken coop.
System collapses from greed and indigestion.
Robustness removed.
64
AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Subprime mortgages traded globally
Mortgages lenders disconnected from the mortgage buyers.
Unbounded uncertainty in this complex system of systems.
65
GENERIC CONFLICT OF VALUES
Sustainable Ecosystem
(SES)
Values
Global Market-driven Economy
(GMDE)
Values
66
THE NEW ORLEANS DEBACLE
• The flooding of New Orleans in August 2005 by Hurricane Katrina
was not a natural disaster.
It was a man-made disaster created by big-money politics, shoddy
engineering, environmental ignorance, and misplaced priorities.
Today, New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen when a strong
hurricane (not a weak category 2) strikes.
A pathetic floodwall is all that stands between disaster.
The survival of New Orleans depends on a sustainable coast.
Source: Time magazine Special Report: Why New Orleans Still Isn’t
Safe, August 2007
67
68
69
WHY NEW ORLEANS DROWNED?
• The principle of sustainability was purposefully ignored and a
creeping corrupted value system was the real culprit that drowned
New Orleans.
We must design our systems of systems according to
responsible and ethical values
In fact, it is our called duty as Systems Engineers to carry this important
message everywhere and ensure that our organizations adhere to it.
70
NEW ORLEANS SLOGANS
• Maker levees, not war.
• Fix the coast or we are toast. (Need wetland to absorb storm surges)
US Corps of Engineers is still concentrating on controlling nature
instead of preserving it.
There is even a plan to build levees along the entire coast: “The Great
Wall of Louisiana”
71
THE GREAT ELECTRICAL SYSTEM FAILURE
• At 4:11 PM on Thursday August 14, 2003, the electrical supply
system in the northeastern part of North America suddenly ceased to
function.
• Canadian Province of Ontario and seven nearby American states
were affected.
• 10 million Canadians and 40 million Americans were without
electricity.
• 22 nuclear and 80 fossil-fuel plants were shut down.
• Electrical system out of commission for up to 30 hours.
72
Power blackout on August 14, 2003 in the
North-Eastern U.S. and Canada
(Source: http://www.vectorone.info/power.htm)
73
A CONFLICT OF VALUES
Sell to the highest bidder
(Maximize profits for corporations)
Provide reliable and low-cost
electrical supply for all citizens
(Socially and environmentally responsible)
74
CONFLICT WITH NATURE
To obtain the highest electricity prices, generating companies may send
power over long distances.
May overload the system and will cause high electricity losses.
Market-driven economic values are in direct conflict with the forces of
basic physics or nature.
75
CANADA’S GLOBAL WARMING POLICY
“A Complete and total fraud”
Former US Vice President Al Gore Al Gove gives his presentation at
the Green Living Show in Toronto on April 28, 2007
76
GLOBAL WARMING
Distorted value system
Economics is held at a much higher priority than humans’ life support
system of systems.
Atmospheric systems is highly unstable.
Irreversible change may gradually or unexpectedly occur.
77
WORLD SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS
• Environmental
• Societal
• Intelligent
• Integrated
78
INTELLIGENT SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS
• An Intelligent System of Systems is an artificial, computerized world
inhabited by agents that interact with one another as they strive to
reach their objectives either independently or in cooperation with
other agents.
• An agent may be a software program that represents someone’s
bidding strategy and objectives when purchasing a product on the
Internet or it may be a mechatronic entity such as a robot working in
cooperation with other robots assembling a car on a production line.
• A specific intelligent system consisting of multiple interacting agents
is entirely created by humans.
79
INTELLIGENT SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS (Cont’d)
• A given agent living in the system is capable of independent or
autonomous action on behalf of its user or owner and behaves
according to the powers that it has been bestowed in its software
design as it strives to achieve its preprogrammed goals by following
particular strategies it can control.
• Often agents are programmed to cooperate with one another in order
to enhance the effectiveness of the intelligent system to achieve its
goals.
• A protocol constitutes the public rules by which agents can come to
agreements within a given system or domain.
80
ETHICAL INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS DESIGN
Just like the Dutch created the polders in Holland, human beings are
the designers, builders and caretakers of intelligent systems.
Humans have a great moral responsibility to construct intelligent
systems having social environments in which agents behave ethically
under appropriate domain protocols and strategies as they compete to
obtain results which in turn must be ethical and fair.
81
MODELLING CONFLICT IN INTELLIGENT
SYSTEMS
• Rosenschien and Zlotkin (1994) mention that they directly import
concepts from game theory for employment in their formal analyses
of rules or protocols governing the high-level behavior of interacting
computer systems or agents.
However, it is difficult to apply game theory to conflicts arising among
decision makers in a societal context such as the groundwater
contamination dispute.
• Designers may wish to consider incorporating into their intelligent
systems design flexible concepts offered by non-quantitative conflict
analysis techniques.
82
GENEALOGY OF FORMAL CONFLICT
MODELS
Game Theory
Quantitative Procedures
Nonquantitative
Approaches
Metagame
Analysis
Conflict
Analysis
Normal
Form
Extensive Form . . .
Cooperative Game
Theory
Drama
Theory
Graph Model for Conflict
Resolution
83
DRAWBACKS OF CLASSICAL GAME THEORY
• Preferences over states for a decision maker are represented
cardinally by von Neumann-Morgenstern utilities.
These are notoriously difficult to calibrate. People think in terms of
relative preferences.
• Players must act in a specific sequence (extensive-form game) or
simultaneously (normal-form game).
In social conflicts as well as disputes among agents in a complex
intelligent system like the Internet, players can choose to act in any
sequence, at the same time or not at all.
84
COMPETITION AND COOPERATION IN THE
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
• Determine the best a decision maker can do on his or her own.
• Check if the decision maker can do even better by cooperating with
others through coalition formation.
85
ETHICAL INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS DESIGN
ENGINEERING
1. Design rules and protocols that only permit ethical behavior and
produce desirable consequences.
Example: Each agent would have a preprogrammed value system that
prioritizes environmental stewardship and societal well-being over profit
maximization. A negotiation protocol would expose and penalize agents
who practice deception and cheat.
2. Encourage competitive behavior within appropriate social and
environmental constraints in order to reduce the cost of a successful
bid and thereby keep the price of finished products as low as
possible.
3. Use simulation or other means to test the ethical and economic
behavior of these complex adaptive systems before they are actually
put in place.
86
WORLD SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS
• Environmental
• Societal
• Intelligent
• Integrated
87
Societal
System
of
Systems
Integrated Intelligent
System of Systems
Systems
of
(Mixed Systems
Life)
Environmental System of
Systems
World System of Systems: Competition and Cooperation
Among Systems Agents
88
INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
• Combination of societal and intelligent systems.
• Examples:
– People and software agents placing bids within eBay
– Modern aircraft
– Electrical supply system
• An intelligent system should be designed using concepts from
Ethical System Design Engineering and take into account physical
constraints.
• A human or an agent may not know if it is interacting with another
human or agent.
89
MULTIPLE PARTICIPANT DECISION MAKING
• Each type of system, or system of systems, is fraught with
interacting and conflicting agents who may also be in dispute with
decision makers existing in other systems.
• Participants can ethically interact in a highly competitive manner or
exhibit cooperation via coalition formation.
90
Multiple Participant-Multiple Objective
Systems of Systems
Environmental
System of Systems
Integrated
System of Systems
Societal
System of Systems
Intelligent
System of Systems
Types of Multiple Participant-Multiple Objective Systems of Systems
91
Societal
System of Systems
Natural
System of Systems
By-products
Atmosphere
(air)
Energy
Biosphere
(life)
Services and
Infrastructure
Agriculture
Hydrosphere
(water)
Industry
Lithosphere
(soil and rock)
Resources
Societal
Induced Effects
Environmental
System of Systems
Societal and Environmental Systems of Systems
92
ETHICAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS DESIGN
ENGINEERING
Design and operate systems of systems in which multiple
participants compete and cooperate in an ethical fashion according to
their value systems to create beneficial consequences for maintaining
a sustainable, fair and secure society.
93
BEHAVIOR OF AGENTS
• Solution concepts for describing behavior of agents under conflict in
societal systems can be considered for employment in other kinds of
systems.
• The employment of classical game theory methods in intelligent and
integrated systems should be carefully assessed.
• Any conflict or game theory method utilized within a given system
should be scientifically tested.
When necessary, suitable refinements and extensions can be made to the
conflict models being entertained or a new class of models can be created.
94
SPECIFIC RESEARCH TOPICS OF MULTIPLE
PARTICIPANT DECISION MAKING
• Determine if non-quantitative techniques can be used outside of the
domain of societal systems.
• For example, the graph model for conflict resolution, along with its
associated solution concepts, may be useful for designing the
behavior of agents living in a particular intelligent system in which
the agents interact in a fashion that mimics human behavior under
conflict.
Technology transfer from one area of system of systems design
engineering to another.
95
GENEALOGY OF FORMAL CONFLICT
MODELS
Game Theory
Quantitative Procedures
Nonquantitative
Approaches
Metagame
Analysis
Conflict
Analysis
Normal
Form
Extensive Form . . .
Cooperative Game
Theory
Drama
Theory
Graph Model for Conflict
Resolution
96
IN A NUTSHELL
I.
Multiple participants
II.
Ethics
Positively harness competition and cooperation
New field of
Ethical Systems of Systems Design Engineering
97
CONFLICT ANALYSIS GROUP
RESEARCH TEAM
Department of Systems Design Engineering
University of Waterloo
Faculty Members
Keith W. Hipel – Coordinator
Liping Fang – Ryerson University
D. Marc Kilgour – Wilfrid Laurier University
Kevin W. Li – University of Windsor
Post-Doctoral Fellows
Ye Chen; Amer Obeidi; Lizhong Wang
Doctoral Students
Majid Sheikhmohammady; Haiyan Xu; Qian Wang; Saied Yousefi;
Master’s Students
Sean Walk; Kaixian Hu; Yi Ke
Senior Project Students
Global Network
98
PANEL SESSION
• The Future of Systems, Man and Cybernetics: Application
Domains and Research Members
• Panelists: Keith Hipel
Mo Jamshidi
Jim Tien (Chair)
Chip White
99
AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Value system is in reverse.
Society serves the system.
Financial system should serve society.
Unethical and unfair to individual citizens.
100
AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Removal of regulations protecting society
Market “fox” is guarding the chicken coop.
System collapses from greed and indigestion.
Robustness removed.
101
AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Subprime mortgages traded globally
Mortgages lenders disconnected from the mortgage buyers.
Unbounded uncertainty in this complex system of systems.
102
GLOBAL WARMING
Distorted value system
Economics is held at a much higher priority than humans’ life support
system of systems.
Atmospheric systems is highly unstable.
Irreversible change may gradually or unexpectedly occur.
103
END OF THE COLD WAR
Anatol Rapoport predicted that an enlightened Soviet Leader would end
the Cold War.
(1983 presentation at the University of Waterloo)
The US Government was incapable of instituting real change because
of its suffocating lobbying system.
Soviet Premier Gorbachev stopped the ridiculous Clod War in 1990.
Likewise, China has a unique historical opportunity to lead the world in
green house gas reduction.
US MEDICAL SYSTEM
Distorted value system.
Profit maximization.
The sicker you are, the more you pay.
Unfair society.
105
CANADIAN, GERMAN AND FRENCH
MEDICAL SYSTEM
Ethical value system
Universal coverage
Equal risk sharing
Everyone pays the same.
Robust society
106
INSIGHT
An equal risk sharing, universal coverage, medical system can be
designed using a:
public,
private or
mixed system
Design a system that can deliver in practice according to the underlying
values of equal risk sharing and universal coverage.
107
EFFECTIVE MEDICAL SYSTEM
Decide upon underlying values.
Design a system that works in practice according to culture, tradition,
and other factors.
Compare the various implementation designs according to criteria that
reflect the underlying values.
Improve system according to performance criteria.
108
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GLOBE AND US
LEADERSHIP
US President Barok Obama could use the financial crisis to
meaningfully address climate change and institute an integrative and
adaptive global governance system.
A unique historical opportunity for the USA.
109
CHINA
Bright highly educated leader.
An enlightened leader has the power to implement dramatic changes
(ex. Deng Xiao Ping’s economic reforms of the late 1970’s.)
Increasing gaps between the rich and poor motivates environmental
problems.
Huge investments in education and infrastructure.
110
USA
Legacy of neo-conservative incompetence
Financial crisis gives change of real reform by Obama. Smothering
lobbying system stifle, needed political initiatives.
See books in social and environmental reform
Increasing gap between the rich and poor. A spirit of innovation and
entrepreneurship.
111
EUROPEAN UNION
Informed, highly trained leaders.
Cooperatively implemented, real free trade over many years.
Socially and environmentally responsible.
Fairness in wealth sharing.
Huge investment in research and development.
A race to the top.
112