ST
21
CENTURY GLOBAL
CHANGE: ENVIRONMENTAL
SCIENCE AT THE EDGE
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE NOW: GLOBAL CHANGE
• Global change science encompasses terrestrial, marine,
atmospheric, and aquatic ecology with the impacts of human
societies for the analysis of planetary-scale alterations to the Earth
System
• GCS – investigates complex interactions of human and nonhuman
life across ecosystems, reflecting a transition from reductionist
scientific investigation to holistic, systems analysis and synthesis of all
sciences
• The International Council of Scientific Unions established the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) as the
forefront global change science conglomerate almost three
decades ago
• The fundamental schism dividing the most advanced Earth Systems
research from application is primarily one of social organization:
while systems scientists and researchers have demonstrated great
progress in cooperative analysis, global governance and policy is
mired in the strict, closed and short-sighted habits of dominance
hierarchies
EARTH SYSTEM BOUNDARIES
• The inner circle represents
the safe operating space
for the key planetary
systems. The red wedges
indicate the best estimate
of the current situation.
• Three boundaries have
already been crossed:
climate change, the
nitrogen cycle and
biodiversity loss. From
Rockström et al. (2009)
Nature
WHY THE NAME CHANGE? ENVIRONMENTAL
SCIENCE TO GLOBAL CHANGE
• Modern environmental conditions lead us to recognize the interconnected nature
of human and non-human communities, of ecology and economy, and of
psychology and consciousness…
• Scientific study of the environment has increasingly exposed the importance of
systems, networks, and interconnected ecological relationships
• “The relationship of humans with the Earth’s environment has changed throughout
the evolution of Homo sapiens and the development of societies. For virtually all
of human existence on the planet, interaction with the environment has taken
place at the local, or at most the regional, scale… A profound transformation of
Earth’s environment is now apparent, owing not to the great forces of nature or
to extraterrestrial sources but to the numbers and activities of people - the
phenomenon of global change.”
IGBP CONCLUSIONS
• The Earth is a system that life itself helps to control (GAIA hypothesis)
• The human enterprise drives multiple, interacting effects that cascade
through the Earth System in complex ways
• The Earth’s dynamics are characterized by
critical thresholds and abrupt changes. Human
activities could inadvertently trigger changes
with catastrophic consequences for
the Earth System
• The Earth is currently operating in a
no-analogue state
BLACK SWANS
• Economic collapse -> the housing bubble + peak oil/conflict =
economic “crisis” of 2008; the root problems were NOT corrected ->
example: student loan bubble - student loans (US) now top $1 trillion;
81% of the most burdened borrowers—those with more than $40,000 of
student debt—have private loans with interest rates of 8% or higher
(CFPB)
• What are the typical effects of economic downturn on the
environment?
• Global systems disruption -> the highly dependent and interconnected
global system is sensitive to the increasing threats of ecological
collapse, resource decline (food, energy), abrupt climate change
MODERN BLACK SWANS
• “The defining events shaping the modern world - economic,
social, environmental, progressive and disruptive - are frequently
characterized as "Black Swans."
• Black Swans – outlier events -> beyond the realm of regular
expectations, past events are not predictive (“no-analogue
state”); carries an extreme impact; “human nature (or perhaps
human behavior/culture) contrives “explanations for its
occurrence after the fact, making it explainable…”
• Fukushima – old reactor, poor positioning, upkeep issues, big surprise
• Colorado fires – warming and drought = pine beetle epidemic = + fire conditions
HOW DO GLOBAL CHANGE PRESSURES SET
THE STAGE FOR BLACK SWANS?
• …and how will environmental science and society at large adjust?
ADDRESSING THE ROOT CAUSES OF GLOBAL CHANGE
• HIPPO -> are these best considered as separate factors or is there a root
cause? What approaches have developed and are they appropriate for
the conditions of the 21st Century?
• Are the conclusions of the top/most relevant environmental and global
change scientists being addressed by the state, by NGO’s, by society at
large?
• Emerging memes in economic/environmental systems http://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/enoughness_restoring_balance_to_the
_economy/
• Biology -> behavior – all of culture can be viewed as a hypertrophic
outgrowth of basic biological urges and tendencies; sociocultural
adaptations follow resource availability and environmental conditions when
basic biological needs are met
WE ARE SOCIAL PRIMATES
• Hierarchy versus network or Rhizome -> the two poles of
human organizational power structures
HIERARCHY DEMANDS GROWTH
- The centralization of power,
control, resources,
information and wealth –
human nature or human
behavior?
- Hierarchy demands growth,
growth is a result of
dependency -> eliminate
dependency to restrict
growth of hierarchy
- When did things change
and why?
HUBBERT’S PEAK
US CRUDE +
CONDENSATE
- Hubbert’s
calculations were
based primarily on
GEOLOGY without
account for
GEOPOLITICS
HUBBERT PEAK FOR US NATURAL
GAS PRODUCTION
• “Our principal constraints are
cultural. During the last two
centuries we have known
nothing but exponential
growth and in parallel we
have evolved what amounts
to an exponential-growth
culture, a culture so heavily
dependent upon the
continuance of exponential
growth for its stability that it is
incapable of reckoning with
problems of nongrowth.” MKH
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND
GLOBAL CHANGE – WHERE TO BEGIN?
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Scientific study of all interactions of:
Living things
Animals, plants, forests, fungi, etc.
Nonliving things
Continents, oceans, clouds, soil, rocks
Our built environment
Buildings, human-created living centers
Social relationships and institutions
• Applied goal of GCS: developing
solutions to environmental issues
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE IS NOT
ENVIRONMENTALISM
•Environmental science
• The pursuit of knowledge about the natural world
• Scientists try to remain objective
•Environmentalism
• A social movement dedicated to protecting the
natural world
•Real world result of separation of emotional
response from natural world?
THE “ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT”
• The environmental impact of a
person or population
• Amount of biologically productive land + water
for raw materials and to dispose/recycle waste
• Overshoot: humans have surpassed
the Earth’s capacity
We are using 30% more of the planet’s resources than are available on a
sustainable basis!
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS ARE
NOT ALL EQUAL
• The ecological footprints of countries vary
greatly
• The U.S. footprint is almost 5 times greater
than the world’s average
• Developing countries have much smaller
footprints than developed countries
• Do national footprints accurately represent
Ecological footprints?
- Nation states -> Market states
IMPORTANCE OF MEMETICS IN
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
• Somewhere before cities in China came to this there were likely humans who
objected to the environmental and social conditions
• They were ignored in favor of other memes…
ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS:
DEFINITIONS
•Moral = the distinction between right and wrong
•Values = the ultimate worth of actions or things
• Ethics = a set of concepts and principles that guide us in determining what behavior
helps or harms ourselves and others.
• “…The ethic from which moral values spring is a norm or standard behavior in
support of a value, and value in turn depends on purpose. Purpose, whether
personal or global, whether urged by conscience or graven in sacred script
expresses the image we hold of ourselves in our society. In short, ethics evolve
through discrete steps, from self-image to purpose to value to ethical precepts to
moral reasoning.” – E. O. Wilson
Environmental Ethics is a discipline
that deals with how we value and
perceive our environment.
ETHICS
Ethics influence our decisions and
actions.
What social standards define our
modern environmental ethics?
Market ethics or ecocentric?
Figure 2.1
SOME QUESTIONS IN
ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS
Should the present
generation conserve
resources for future
generations?
Are humans justified in
driving other species to
extinction?
Is it OK to destroy a forest to
create jobs for people?
Is it OK for some
communities to be exposed to
more pollution than others?
ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS
•Universalists
•Fundamental principles of ethics are universal, unchanging, and eternal.
•The rules of right and wrong are valid regardless of our interests, attitudes, desires or
preferences.
•Relativists
•Moral principles are always relative to a particular person, society, or situation.
Ethical values are contextual, that is they depend on the person, the society, or the
situation. There is right and wrong or at least better or worse but no principles are
absolute
•Nihilists
•The world makes no sense at all! Everything is completely arbitrary, there is no
meaning or purpose to life other than the instinctive struggle for survival. There is no
reason to behave morally. Might is right. The is no such thing as the good life. Life is
uncertain full of pain and despair.
•Utilitarians
•An action is right that produces the greatest good for the greatest number of
people.
•Goodness = Happiness; Happiness = Pleasure
ENVIRONMENTAL PERSPECTIVES
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Domination
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Stewardship
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Biocentrism
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Ecocentrism
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“Sustainability”
“The ideas that stem from Gaia theory put us in our
proper place as part of the Earth system—not the
owners, managers, commissars, or people in charge.
The Earth has not evolved solely for our benefit, and
any changes we make to it are at our own risk. This way
of thinking makes clear that we have no special
human rights; we are merely one of the partner species
in the great enterprise of Gaia.”
- James Lovelock
THREE ETHICAL WORLDVIEWS
Biocentric - Life centered, all organisms have some intrinsic values
and rights. Biodiversity is the highest ethical value in nature.
Individuals and populations are the basic units of biodiversity.
Figure 2.4
FUKUSHIMA:
• On 11 March 2011 the Fukushima Daiici nuclear reactor suffered a
catastrophic failure
• The failure occurred when the plant was hit by the tsunami. The plant began
releasing substantial amounts of radioactive materials beginning on 12
March, becoming the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl
disaster and the second (with Chernobyl) to measure Level 7 on the
International Nuclear Event Scale.
• At least 300,000 people evacuated the area and as of August 2013 there
have been approximately 1,600 deaths were related to the evacuation
conditions, such as living in temporary housing and hospital closures
• A 2013 WHO report predicts that for populations living in nearby areas
there is a 70% higher risk of developing thyroid cancer for girls exposed
as infants, a 7% higher risk of leukemia in males exposed as infants, a
6% higher risk of breast cancer in females exposed as infants and a 4%
higher risk, overall, of developing solid cancers for females
• Chernobyl = 1 reactor meltdown, 1000 square mile exclusion zone;
Fukushima = 3 reactor meltdowns; 500 square mile exclusion zone
• On 22 July 2013 it was revealed that the plant is leaking radioactive
water into the Pacific Ocean. This had been denied by TEPCO….
• Fukushima Daiichi was central to a falsified-records scandal that led to
the departure of senior TEPCO executives. Dale Bridenbaugh, a lead
GE designer, claimed that GE was warned of major design flaws in
1976, resulting in the resignations of several GE designers who
protested GE's negligence
FUKUSHIMA UPDATE
• Unexplained plumes of radioactive steam have been rising from Fukushima's
Reactor Building 3. TEPCO has confirmed the reports, adding that they were
not clear on the details of the sudden change at the reactor because of
"lethal radiation levels in that building."
• Fukushima's Reactor Building 3 exploded on 13th March 2011 as a result of a
hydrogen buildup, breaching the building's containment and emitting a
huge plume of radiation. The reactor itself is in meltdown.
• Fresh plumes of steam have been seen coming out unit 3. These have now
been confirmed by TEPCO, the owner of the nuclear plant, from 19th
December 2013 onwards.
• Increasing levels of radiation are being recorded on the West Coast and
throughout the US
• Unexplained mass die offs of animals now occurring on the West Coast USA
THE ATMOSPHERE,
COMPOSITION & STRUCTURE
• Gas Mixture – Mostly Nitrogen, Oxygen
• Ozone layer is found in the Stratosphere – CFC’s
and BFC’s
• In general, air pressure and density decrease with
altitude in the atmosphere
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Troposphere
Stratosphere – about 90% of the atmosphere
Mesosphere
Thermosphere
Ionosphere
Energy Balance in the Atmosphere
Convection Cells
Prevailing Winds
Jet Streams
Frontal Weather
• cold and warm fronts
• Cyclonic Storms
• hurricanes and tornadoes
• Seasonal Winds
• monsoon
• Weather Modification/geoengineering
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WEATHER
• Driving Forces & Patterns in Climatic Changes
• Long term self –
regulation, abrupt
state shifts
CLIMATE
ANTHROPOGENIC (HUMAN-CAUSED) GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Greenhouse Gases
• Carbon Dioxide
• Methane
• Aerosols
• Sources
• Burning Fossil Fuels
• Industrial Processes
• Deforestation
• Agriculture
• Positive feedbacks:
methane, albedo
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• Temperature Changes
• Impact on Plants and Animals
• Rising Sea Levels
impacting Coastlines
• Melting Ice Packs
• Possible Increase of Disease
THE CARBON CYCLE
• Plants absorb Carbon Dioxide to make sugar and cellulose (polymerized sugar "wood". Plants also make oils, amino acids, and many other carbon-base
compounds. However, cellulose is the most common product.) Eventually, the
plants die, decay, and return most of the Carbon Dioxide back to the
atmosphere.
• There are 3 notable exceptions to this balance
• Coal - Some plants were buried in such a way that there was not enough
oxygen to convert the sugars back into Carbon Dioxide.
• Oil - Some animals ate plants, died, and where buried in such a way that there
was not enough oxygen to convert the sugars back into Carbon Dioxide. This
also occurred with some single celled plants (such as diatoms).
• Limestone - includes shells and coral Some animals used the Carbon Dioxide to
make shells (CaCO3) that today make mountains.