Research
Oxford
Scenarios as a strategic tool
Challenges for the European
tourism sector
Presentation by
Jakob Stoumann, Senior analyst
Oxford Research
Copenhagen
Falkoner allé 20
DK-2000 Frederiksberg
Tlf.: 33 69 13 69
Fax: 33 69 13 33
E-mail: office@oxfordresearch.dk
Hjemmeside: www.oxfordresearch.dk
Agenda
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1.
Background: A comprehensive
sectoral analysis of the EU Hotels &
restaurants sector
2.
Challenges for the European
tourism industry
3.
Scenarios as a strategic tool
4.
Summing up and
recommendations
Background
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In 2008-2009 Oxford Research carried out a comprehensive
mapping and analysis of the European Hotels and restaurant
sector for the European Commission.

Focus was on drivers of change and emerging skills ad competencies

The study was carried out simultaneous with 17 other comprehensive
sector studies

All studies followed the same methodology: The European Foresight
Methodology. Qualitative scenario building is one of the main pillars of
the EFM

The studies formed part of the European Commission’s overall strategic
goal to identify trends and drivers of change in the European labour
market in order to enhance strategic human resource management
Challenges
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Challenges for the European tourism industry

Heightened international
competition: Europe is lacking behind…

Lack of qualified labour
•
•
•

Weak focus un training and up-skilling
Need to up-date educational system
Poor working conditions and career possibilities
Sector characterised by a certain
level of inertia
•
•
Slow pace of innovation
Few players take in to account new mega
trends (e.g. health and climate concerns)

Lack of cooperation

Little strategic planning
The Scenario methodology
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Two uncertain but very important drivers for the Hotels and
restaurants sector has been identified. Scenarios describe possible
developments until 2020.

The general economic
development:
• Continued economic growth and
globalisation or,
• Economic recession and nationalism

The development of certain
consumer trends
• Puritanism or,
• Escapism
Crossing drivers of change
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Economic growth and globalisation
Escapism
Consumption is typically
driven by the ‘faster,
better, bigger’ ideology.
Climate problems for
example are not seen as
a personal responsibility´.
The escapists are
concerned about health
and the fairness of the
world but tend to escape
via wellness and
traditional luxury.
The ongoing economic crisis is just a minor
and short economic slow down. With such a
positive economic development increased
globalisation will follow.
Puritanism
Consumers will develop
a more puritan and
spiritual approach to
consumption. The
personal responsibility
concerning for example
health, environment,
climate and fair trade is
taken very serious.
Saving before spending
becomes more
important.
Economic recession and nationalism
A recession will influence the society for the
next 10-12 years. It will result in increased
nationalism and regionalism where regions
and nations turn their back to global
cooperation concentrating on their own lack of
resources.
The four scenarios
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Continued economic growth and globalisation
Scenario 1
Scenario 3
The Marco
Polo Scenario
The Body
Shop Scenario
Puritanism
Escapism
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
The Sunny
Beach
Scenario
The
Asceticism
Scenario
Economic recession and nationalism
The Marco Polo Scenario
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The Marco Polo Scenario
•
•
•
•
High individualisation
Some specialisation possibilities
Polarisation of the market
High growth in both inbound and
outbound tourism
• Wellness and traditional luxury
Escapism
Economic growth
and globalisation
The Sunny Beach Scenario
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Escapism
The Sunny Beach Scenario
•
•
•
•
•
Mass produce, economies of scale
Highly price driven market
Conformity
Comfort – but no luxury
Regionalisation of travelling
Economic recession
and nationalism
The Body Shop Scenario
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Economic growth
and globalisation
The Body Shop Scenario
•
•
•
•
•
High individualisation
Many specialisation possibilities
Segmentation of the market
Healthy lifestyle and holidays
Goodness: volunteering, fair trade,
organic food, etc.
Puritanism
The Asceticism Scenario
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Puritanism
The Asceticism Scenario
Economic recession
and nationalism
• Basic living – simple holidaying
• ‘Close-to-home’ tourism
• Experiences: healthy, sustainable
and not expensive
• Food: vegetarian, organic, local
produce, simple
Emerging Competences in the scenarios
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Tasks and emerging competences
Main
occupational
function
The Marco Polo Scenario
General
Management
• Entrepreneurship
• Knowledge about health,
environment and climate
• CSR
• Knowledge about ICT
• International financial
management
•Intercultural management
Marketing
The Sunny Beach Scenario
The Body Shop Scenario
The Asceticism Scenario
• International financial
management
• Knowledge about ICT
• Contract management
• Rationalisation methods
and techniques
• Entrepreneurship
• Project management
• Multicultural management
• International networking
• Knowledge about ICT
• Knowledge about health,
environment and climate
• CSR
• Knowledge about health,
environment and climate
• CSR
• Rationalisation methods
and techniques
• International corporate
branding
• Branding through ICT
• Employer branding
• International corporate
branding
• Branding through ICT
• Incorporating sustainability
and CSR in corporate branding
• Exploring new, individualised
market segments
• Employer branding
• Branding through ICT
• Employer branding
• Incorporating sustainability
and CSR in branding
• Branding through ICT
R&D
• Developing new, unique
individualised hospitality
experiences
• Developing and applying
ICT and internet solutions
• Developing and applying
ICT and internet solutions
• Developing new individualised
hospitality experiences
• Developing sustainable
resorts and healthy menus
• Developing and applying ICT
and internet solutions
• Developing sustainable
resorts and healthy menus
Production/
service
• Multi-skilling and
flexibility
• ICT skills: using ICT and
internet solutions
• Intercultural
competences
• Multiskilling and lexibility
• ICT skills: using ICT and
internet solutions
• Language skills
• Intercultural competences
• Cooperation and team spirit
• Multiskilling and flexibility
• Knowledge about health,
nutrition, environment and
climate
• ICT skills
• Multi-skilling and flexibility
• Knowledge about health,
nutrition, environment and
climate
• ICT skills: using ICT and
internet solutions
Recommendations
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Europe can’t compete (only) on price – in the
long run!

Sunny Beach is the easy, but short sighted, way
to go
Instead:

High end / luxury market (the ‘Marco Polos’)

Niches and specialisation (the ‘Body Shoppers’
and Marco Polos)

Sustainable tourism - for all (the Ascetics and
the Body Shoppers)

Close-to-home tourism (Ascetics)

Uniqueness and value for money (all)
Recommendations
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More strategic planning is needed!

Segmentation and innovation:
•
•
•

Find your uniqueness,
Which target group(s) and which niches?
Invent specialised offers, services and experiences?
Which competencies, resources, measures etc. will be needed?
Multilevel cooperation is needed!

Destination building and innovation --› Clustering and networking

Upskilling and training --› Social dialogue

Up-to-date education --› cooperation between industry and education
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