Town Planning and Statistical Data
The Case of Hong Kong
Jimmy Leung
Planning Department
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government
Aims of Town Planning in HK
To provide a quality living environment, to
facilitate economic development, and to
promote the health, safety, convenience
and general welfare of the community by
guiding and controlling development and
the use of land.
2
Statistical Data for Town Planning
To support planning, we require data on:
• Overall HK
• Small areas within HK
• Cross-boundary movement between HK and
the Mainland
• Neighbouring areas of HK
• HK residents living and working in the
Mainland
3
Sources of Statistical Data
• Statistics compiled and surveys conducted by
the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD)
of HK
• Administrative records of other government
departments
• Surveys conducted by the Planning
Department (PlanD)
4
Data on Overall Hong Kong
• To enable planners to grasp the
current social and economic
situation and trends of HK
• HK has its own statistical
system
• C&SD compiles very
comprehensive official statistics
• C&SD also produces projections
of population, households and
employment for overall HK.
5
Data on Small Areas
• Small area statistics, such as population and
employment by small districts, are also
essential for planning at both territorial and
district levels
• Some examples :
• Socio-economic data of of population in
each district based on population
censuses and surveys by C&SD
• administrative records of government
departments, e.g. student places from
Education Bureau
6
Data on Small Areas
• PlanD also plays an
active role in
producing small area
statistics.
• PlanD leads an interdepartmental Working
Group on Population
Distribution
Projections (WGPD)
to produce 10-year
population projections
of small areas in HK
7
Data on Small Areas
• PlanD also produces projections of population
and employment by small areas for a longer
time span (the latest up to 2031), known as
the Territorial Planning and Employment Data
Matrix (TPEDM)
8
Data on Small Areas
• The WGPD projections and TPEDM are used
by government departments, such as the
Education Bureau, Water Supplies
Department, Transport Department,
Registration and Electoral Office for their own
planning and business purposes.
• This ensures that government departments
are using a consistent set of data in their work
9
Data on Cross-boundary Movement
• In 2007, on average
442,000 passengers and
42,000 vehicles crossed
the boundary between
HK and the Mainland
each day.
• More HK people are
working and living in the
Mainland
10
Data on Cross-boundary Movement
• PlanD needs data on cross-boundary
movements for planning of crossing facilities
• Some data on cross-boundary passengers
and vehicles are available from the
administrative records of the Immigration
Department and the Customs and Excise
Department
• These data are very basic and cannot fully
meet the need for planning, such as
information on trip purpose, origin/destination,
mode of transport.
11
Data on Cross-boundary Movement
• To fill the data gap, PlanD
launched a series of Crossboundary Travel Surveys
on regularly since 1999.
• Salient features of Crossboundary Travel Survey:
• Conducted in 1999,
2001, 2003, 2006 and
2007
• Two-week fieldwork
period in Nov/Dec of
the year
12
Data on Cross-boundary Movement
• Salient features:
• Intercept passengers
and vehicle drivers at
the boundary crossings
and collect information
through face-to-face
interviews
• Large scale,
interviewed 56,000
passengers and 16,000
vehicle drivers in the
2007 round
13
Data on Cross-boundary Movement
• Salient features:
• Covers all boundary crossings: air, road,
rail, ferry.
• Covers all passengers: HK residents, HK
people living in the Mainland, Visitors from
the Mainland and People living in other
places.
• Major data items include trip purpose,
origin/destination, mode of transport,
frequency of travel, duration of stay and
socio-economic characteristics of the trip
makers
14
Data on Neighbouring Areas
• PlanD needs to
keep track of the
social and
economic
development of
HK’s neighouring
areas, in
particular cities in
the Pearl River
Delta.
15
Data on Neighbouring Areas
• Establishment of
the “Hong KongMacao-Guangdong
Information
Database”
• Discussions on
planning
information sharing
with Shenzhen,
Macao and Zhuhai
16
Data on HK residents living and
working in the Mainland
• Needed for planning infrastructure and
community facilities
• Difficult to obtain information about them due
to:
• their high mobility
• their relatively small in number in the
Mainland
• no complete and accurate list of them
through administrative records
17
Data on HK residents living and
working in the Mainland
• Initiatives by PlanD :
• household surveys in HK
• surveys in the Mainland in
cooperation with the
Mainland statistical
agencies
• C&SD is also exploring with the National
Bureau of Statistics to explore whether HK
residents living in the Mainland can be
covered in China’s 2010 Population Census
18
Example of application:
Hong Kong 2030 :
Planning Vision and Strategy
19
Purpose of Study
• A strategic, territory-wide
planning framework to
guide development of
land and infrastructure
• Assess development
needs in the long term
and formulate strategies
to respond
• Contribute to achieving
HK’s vision – Asia’s
world city
20
The Study Process
•
•
•
•
•
Environmental
Social
Economic/ Financial
Transport
Land use
Impact Analyses
BASELINE
REFERENCE
SCENARIO
VISION
FOR HK
PLANNING
OBJECTIVES
Stage 1
Stage 2
OPTIONS
Performance
Evaluation
“WHAT IF”
SCENARIOS
Stage 3
Public Engagement
21
PREFERRED
OPTION
STRATEGY
Sensitivity
Analyses
MONITORING
SYSTEM
Stage 4
Defining Planning Objective
Four Major Areas of Concerns :
• The Desired Living Environment
• The National Dimension
• The Changing Economy
• Population Dynamics
22
Defining Planning Objective
• Statistical data related to air
pollution, air movement,
water quality, waste
generation, biodiversity,
energy consumption, traffic
movement
The Desired Living
Environment
23
Defining Planning Objective
• Statistical data on crossboundary passenger,
vehicle and cargo
movements
• Statistical data on
Mainland’s economic and
social development
• National and regional plans
and studies
The National Dimension
24
Defining Planning Objective
• Statistical data on the
HK economy, such as
GDP, employment,
visitor arrivals, cargoes,
import and export
trades
The Changing Economy
25
Changes in the Economy
US$10,000
%
5
100
4
80
3
60
2
40
1
20
Per capita GDP 2007
(at current market prices)
80%
91%
1980
1990
2006
0
USA
UK
Taiwan
Singapore
Malaysia
Korea
Japan
Hong Kong
0
73%
26
Percentage Contribution
of Services to GDP
(at current factor cost)
Defining Planning Objective
• Statistical data on the
Hong Kong population
and its age-sex
structure, labour force
and households.
Population Dynamics
27
Slowing of Population Growth
Million
10
8
8.3
7.7
6.7
6
7.1
5.8
5.1
4
4.0
3.1
2
2.1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
28
2010
2020
2030
Smaller Households
Persons
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
29
Increasing Mobility
million
thousand
200
500
426
160
400
150
154
390
147
111
100
117
128
124
300
317
281
99
86
75
50 60
354
248
200
219
185
65
100
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
2001
Cross-Boundary
Passenger Movements
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Mobile Residents at
Mid-Year
30
2036
Ageing of Population
85+
Male
Female
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
400
300
200
100
0
100
2036
2006
31
200
300
Thousand persons
400
Setting out Working Assumptions
• Population projections
• Employment projections
• Housing Land Requirements
• Economic Land Requirements
• Port, Airport and Strategic Transport
Infrastructure Requirements
32
Example of application:
Analysis of the demographic and
socio-economic characteristics of
the Tin Shui Wai New Town
33
Tin Shui Wai
• A new town in
the northwestern
part of HK
• Developed in
1990’s, with a
population of
around 270000
now
34
Tin Shui Wai
• Infamous for being a community with family
and social problems
• Some people attributed this to poor planning
• A comprehensive study using data from the
2006 Population By-census was conducted to:
• understand the demographic and socio-economic
characteristics of the population
• identify issues and lessons related to planning
35
Tin Shui Wai
• Characteristics of the community identified :
•
•
•
•
•
lower income
lower education level
higher unemployment rate
higher proportion of young population
high concentration of public housing
• Lessons :
• higher proportion of young people and non-working
mother in the early stage of new town development
• need to provide recreation and social facilities for
them
• no direct relationship between town planning and
family problems
36
Example of application:
Cross-boundary Traffic Prediction
37
Cross-boundary Traffic Prediction
• Need to project cross-boundary passenger and
vehicular traffic for planning crossing facilities
• A 4-stage transport model
to project the demand
Cross-boundary Transport Model (CBTM) Structure
Local Loaded Networks
38
Freight Model
Guangdong Loaded Networks
Public Transport Networks
Highways Networks
• Model requires a lot of
statistical data in model
development, calibration
and runs
Planning Data
Hong Kong Domestic Transport Model
Private Vehicle Model
Public
Transport
Model
Total Public Transport Demand
Highways
Model
Modal Split
Goods Vehicle
and Container
Vehicle Demand
Matrices
Private Vehicle
Demand Matrix
Through Train, Boundary Train,
Bus, Ferry Person Matrices
Highway Loading by Crossing Point
Public Transport Loading
Highway Loaded Network
Bus Vehicle Flows
Cost
Elasticity
Model
Cross-boundary Traffic Prediction
Examples of data application
• Administrative records :
• trends of cross-boundary passengers and vehicles
• Cross-boundary Travel Survey results :
• breakdowns of passengers by different groups and
trip purpose
• origins and destinations of the cross-boundary
passengers and vehicles for prediction of trip ends
• Projections of overall population :
• to derive the projected number of cross-boundary
trips by applying the trip rate to the base population
39
Conclusion
• Statistical data are very important to planning
• HK has already developed very good sources for
the full range of data for planning
• Cross-boundary issues become an important
dimension in planning
• Strong need to collect data on cross-boundary
movements and HK residents living and working in
the Mainland
• Cooperation with the governments of neighbouring
areas on how to meet this need deserves further
exploration
40
Thank you
41
Oct 2008