The End of Industrialism
“Going Home”
Planning for Hard Times
Presented
by
Pat Murphy, Executive Director
Community Solutions
Yellow Springs, OH 45387
October 27, 2007
Community Solutions – Vision & Mission
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Vision – To reduce energy consumption everywhere in every
way through community and personal action
Mission – To provide knowledge and practices to support low
energy lifestyles in the household economic sector (food,
housing, transportation)
Key Assumptions
 Peak Oil and Climate Change are interrelated
 Must become “sustainable” – watchword of our times
 “Sustainability” can be, and must be, measured
Community Solution Historical View
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For 10,000 years the world was “Agrarian”
200 + years ago Industrialism began
 Steam Engine – James Watt – 1769 (technology)
 Wealth of Nations – Adam Smith – 1776 (philosophy)
 Fundamental to colonialism – past and present
Industrialism – based on fossil fuels, machines and competition
Agrarianism – based on land, biology (water, air) and cooperation
Industrialism is not sustainable
Agrarianism is sustainable
 World will become more Agrarian – one way or the other
 An Agrarian world can include bypass surgery and Internet
 There are many intermediate technologies
Fossil Fuel History and Future
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Major increase in coal burning from 1875 – 1925
Oil usage began in first quarter of 20th century
Oil/Natural gas hyper growth from 1945
Accelerated population growth
Population Increase and CO2
2007
1945
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From 2.4 billion people in 1945 to 6.6 billion in 2007
Fossil fuels “feed our economy” – and our population
1 pound of fossil fuel generates 2.6 pounds of CO2
The Beginning of the End
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Running low on oil
 Petroleum Geologists (ASPO)
 All fossil fuels finite
 Predictions began in 1970s
Running low on atmosphere
 Climate scientists (NOAA)
 Carbon absorption finite
 Predictions began in 1970s
2006
Sustainability – Defined and Measured
US
Russia
Germany
Japan
UK
Iran
Mexico
Thailand
China
Turkey
Brazil
Cuba
Indonesia
Egypt
Nigeria
Vietnam
Phillipines
India
Pakistan
Ethiopia
Bangladesh
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25
20
15
10
5
Sustainable
~1 ton/person
0
Sustainability defined – ~ 1 ton/CO2 per person per year
20 of ~200 nations with 70% of population
The Industrial Century: 1930 – 2030
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Olduvai Gorge Metaphor – Richard Duncan – Oil, Gas, Coal
1945 – Country still “Agrarian” – just before hyper growth
Went from 3 boe/c to 12 boe/c – 4 to 1 increase
Energy (and CO2) Inequity
Region
8
7
US
%
Pop.
4.5%
300m
10.5%
700m
85%
5,700m
6
OECD-L
5
4
ROW
3
2
Ratio of US and OECD–L
to ROW (ROW=1)
1
0
Ene rgy
US
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CO2
OECD-L
ROW
US per capita energy use/CO2 – 7/ 8 times ROW citizens
US with 4.5% of population has generated 27% of CO2
World and U.S. Household Sector Energy
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
57 World
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US
OECD-L
31
28
ROW
US Food
7
9
11
9
US Housing
US Transport
Global Use
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US
BOE
US Use
US Ind/Comr
Measure of per capita barrels of oil equivalent (BOE)
Each American uses more energy for food than 5.7 billion
people use for everything!
The “Inconvenient” Truth
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Western Industrial “life style” is threatening life itself
China & India (2.5 billion people) have chosen industrialism
 Consumerism replaced socialism/communism
 Ecological deterioration is accelerating
“What kind of world will we leave our children, grandchildren
and great grandchildren? What will they say of us? Will our
great grand children say, "What kind of monsters must they
have been?“
– US Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Rep) ASPO 2006
Beginning the Change (to Sustainability?)
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Three options – Plan A, Plan B, Plan C
 Plan A – Business as usual (new fuels). Same lifestyle
 Plan B – Replace fossil fuels with wind/solar. Same lifestyle
 Plan C – The Party’s Over. Change lifestyle. Cut back fuels
Plan A – Denial – Fuel Cell, Nuclear Fusion, Carbon Capture
 The record is bleak. Big potential for war.
Plan B – Substitution – Wind, solar, biofuels
 Wind & solar still about 1%. Agri-fuels (food of the poor)
Plan C – Redesign – Curtailment and Community
 Use “intermediate” technologies
 Reduce consumption – change life style
 Focus on household sector – food, house, car
Community Solutions Targets
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Vision & Mission Summarized
 To reduce energy consumption through community and
personal action in the household economic sector including
food, housing, and transportation
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Agrarian Food System – This presentation
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House Deep Retrofit – Linda Wigington
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Smart Jitney – Bob Steinbach
U.S. Food System – “10 for 1” Ratio
I
N
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D
Replaced labor with fossil fuels
U
S
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From .05 to 10 fossil calories
Labor efficient, energy negative
land inefficient, soil destructive
Varies by food type
 All foods – 1 for 10
 Factory meat – 1 for 16
 Sodas – 1 for 30
T
L
O
S
S
P
R
O
F
I
T
R
I
A
L
A
G
R
A
R
I
A
N
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ROW (5.7 billion) is quasi Agrarian – Mostly Sustainable
 Takes no fossil fuel calories to provide food calories
 This means 25–50%, or more, of people grow food
Post WWII Policy – Destroy Family Farm
7
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.3
5.6
6
5
4
4
3
3
2.4
2.2
2.1
1980
1990
2000
2
1
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Millions of Farms
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In 1945 US was still “Agrarian” to a degree
US “Declared War” on Farmers in late 1940s
 Ezra Benson – Eisenhower era (1950s) “Get Big or Get Out”
 Earl Butz – Nixon era (1960s) “Adapt or Die”
 Battle was over by the 1970s
Needed to Slander Agrarians
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We are: worldly–wise, cool, hip, sophisticated, blasé, trendy,
upscale, tony, chic (we being machine people)
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They are: provincial, unsophisticated, hayseeds, bumpkins,
yokels, hicks, peasants, hillbillies, natives, indigenous, countycousins, rednecks, clodhoppers, (they being land people)
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Our work – empowering. Theirs – back breaking & mind numbing
Probably the biggest blunder (or crime) in history
 Hurt 100s of millions of people around the world
 Including 10s of millions of Americans
 Assault continues with WTO programs
 Indigenous farmers (U.S. & worldwide) are becoming serfs
Industrial vs. Agrarian Comparison
Country
US
China
Ratio
300
1,320
4.400
Total area (acres) (106)
2,378
2,370
0.997
Cropland – acres (106)
437
306
0.700
3
510.8
170.267
19.7
2.9
0.147
145.7
0.6
0.004
Population (106)
Ag workers ((106)
CO2/capita
Cropland/ag workers (acres)
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Agrarian countries use more labor – for healthier foods, soils
 Agricultural workers: US 1%, China 38%
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China gets 6 times the calories per acre – while preserving soil
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US generates 6 times the CO2 per person
Cuba’s Move to Modern Agrarianism
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Experienced Peak Oil 1990
 Severe and Rapid
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Extreme societal change
 Searched country for farmers
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In 18 months became 80% Organic
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Major reforestation program
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Urban gardens 50% of vegetables
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Cubans diet changed
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Pork to veggies
Free Medical Care/Education/Sports
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Few cars/goods, tiny houses
Cuba Before
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Rapid change dictated
by hunger, not Fidel
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Average Cuban lost 20 lbs.
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Government changed land
policies rapidly (like
Roosevelt)
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Cuba only country to achieve sustainable development award!
 World Wildlife Fund 2006 Living Planet report
 UN Human Development Index & Ecological Footprint
Understanding the Food System
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Can’t manage if you can’t measure – “to measure is to know”
 Need to understand energy/food numbers
Ignore the Supermarkets (Agribusiness) – Look in the fields
Two key divisions of our food system
 Meat and Animal Products – “Feed” and Fodder
 Contained Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO)
 Corn, Soybeans, Hay as raw materials
 Most of acreage devoted to this
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Plants – Food
 Basic food is healthy – grains, vegetables, grass-fed meat
 Manufacturing process depletes plant food value
Harvested Acreage – The Basic Numbers
150
Grains
Oilseeds
100
Hay
Sugar
50
Legumes
0
F-V-N
Acres (mlns)
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268 million acres planted – the source of our food
All food is plant based – animals are intermediaries
The top 3 support manufactured/CAFO products
Grains – Main Staples (Calorie) Crops
Corn
80
Wheat
60
Sorghum
40
Barley
20
Rice
Oats
0
Acres (mlns)
Millet
Rye
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Grains are the basis of animal “manufacturing” process
Limited grains for personal consumption
The Big Grain Crop – Corn
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US is world’s largest corn producer
 11.8 billion bushels produced in 2004 – 10 billion domestic
 Land provides 1,900 pounds per person per year
 2,200 pounds average food weight per year per person
Little corn eaten directly – a raw material for meat and sweets
 6.2 billion bushels used for CAFO meat
 Much of rest for High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS)
“Heroin” of the food system
 Michael Pollan – “We are the corn people”
Grains – Wheat
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Largest grain crop after corn
 Used primarily for human food rather than feed
 Domestic use 1,172 million bushels
 184 pounds unprocessed wheat consumed per person
Wheat for humans is highly processed – (97% white flour)
 White flour (1907) is a nutritionally stripped product
 Vitamins added back by processors inadequate – 20 out, 4 in
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Raw material for poor quality manufactured foods
Processing removes fiber, vitamins, minerals, phytochemicals
 Fed to animals along with 79 million bushels plain wheat
Other grains – sorghum, barley, rice, oats, millet, rye – 12%
 Example of lack of variety
Oilseeds
Soybeans
80
Sunflower
60
Peanuts
40
Canola
20
Flaxseeds
Safflower
0
Acres (millions)
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Mustard
Soybean – Unnatural food for animals; bad fats for humans
Barely existed in early 20th century
Soybeans
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US is world’s largest soybean producer
 3,123 million bushels produced in 2004
 2,021 million bushels used for domestic consumption
 400 pounds per person per year
 For animal feed and manufactured food
Soy beans consist of oil, meat, and hulls
 After oil extracted, carbohydrate residue fed to animals
 Made into harmful trans-fats (hydrogenated soybean oil)
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“Cocaine” of the food system
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Sunflower, peanut, canola, flaxseed, safflower, mustard – 6%
Hay – Largest crop after grains and oilseeds
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Largest crop after corn & soybeans
 Perennial grasses/legumes used as feed
 158 million tons in 2004
 1,073 pounds per person
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Enters American diet through beef cattle
and dairy cows
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If corn provides meat, hay provides milk
Healthier Crops
150
Grains
Oilseeds
100
Hay
Sugar
50
Legumes
0
F-V-N
Acres (mlns)
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4
Vegetables
3
Fruits
2
Sugar
1
Legumes
Nuts
0
Acres (millions)
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Very small part of acreage
planted
Priority is for bad food
Sugars, Legumes and Nuts
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Sugars
 Sugars mostly replaced with high fructose corn syrup
 Sugar acreage 60% beets and 40% cane
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Legumes
 Dried beans, dried peas and lentils
 Low energy replacements for CAFO products
 .7% U.S. harvested acreage for beans, peas and lentils
 Two pounds of beans about equal to one pound meat
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Nuts
 .3% of harvested acreage for nuts
 Nuts can replace some CAFO meat
Fruits, Vegetables, Nuts (F-V-N)
4
3
Fruits
2
Vegetables
1
Nuts
0
Acres (millions)
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Surprisingly small amount of acreage
Americans eat about half what’s recommended
Vegetables
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Vegetables divided into fresh vegetables
and vegetables for processing.
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30 Main Vegetables
artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, lima beans, beets, broccoli,
cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, sweet corn, cucumbers,
eggplant, endive, escarole, garlic, head lettuce, romaine and
leaf lettuce, mushrooms, onions, bell peppers, potatoes,
radishes, spinach, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, green peas, chili
peppers, spinach, and other miscellaneous vegetables
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Only 1.1% of farmland is used for growing vegetables.
Very Little Vegetable Diversity – (lbs)
150
Potatoes
Tomatoes
100
Corn
Onions
50
Iceberg
0
Avr of 34
Pounds
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Most potato consumption is French Fries
Fruits
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Divided into fresh fruits and
fruits for processing.
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35 Main Fruits
apples, apricots, avocados, bananas, cherries, cantaloupes,
cranberries, grapes, grapefruit, honeydew, kiwifruit, lemons,
limes, mangoes, nectarines, oranges, papayas, peaches,
pears, pineapples, plums, prunes, strawberries, tangelos,
tangerines, temple oranges, watermelon, blackberries,
boysenberries, cranberries, dates, figs, loganberries, olives,
raspberries, and other miscellaneous fruit and berries.
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1.1% of farmland allocated to fruit production
Lack of Fruit Diversity
80
Oranges
Apples
60
Bananas
40
Grapes
20
Watermelon
Pineapple
0
Pounds
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Much of the fruit is consumed as beverages
23 others
Acreage Distribution Implications
150
Grains
Oilseeds
100
Hay
Sugar
50
Legumes
0
F-V-N
Acres (mlns)
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Most of acreage for meat products and manufactured foods
 Corn for CAFO feed and HFCS for grocery manufacturing
 Soybeans for CAFO feed and hydrogenated oil for
manufactured foods
 Wheat for white flour
Industrialized Food Results
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Bad Health
 $5,000 yearly medical expenses, $2,300 food expenses
 Cheap food contributes to bad health
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Tortured animals
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Lack of Diversity
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Deteriorating soil
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Poisoned waterways
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Fossil water drawdown
Bad Food and Poor Health
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U.S. is the unhealthiest of industrialized rich nations
 Life expectancy of 77, lower than Canada’s 80
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U.S. medical costs per capita twice European countries
 Cheap food means expensive medical care
Two thirds of Americans are overweight or obese
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Food system the main culprit
 Two major flaws – CAFO meat and Manufactured Foods
 Two major destructive foods – Corn and Soybeans
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Foolishness vs. Wisdom
 US spends ~$2,500 for food and $5,000 for medical care
 EU spends ~$3,500 for food and $2,500 for medical care
Atwood Study – Poor Food Choices
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Nutritional Density
What People Should Eat
Highest to lowest
Broccoli
Spinach
Brussels Sprouts
Lima Beans
Peas
Asparagus
Artichokes
Cauliflower
Sweet Potatoes
Carrots
Sweet corn
Potatoes
Cabbage
Tomatoes
Banana
Lettuce
Onions
Oranges
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Popularity
What people Eat
Lowest to highest
Tomatoes
Oranges
Potatoes
Lettuce
Sweet Corn
Bananas
Carrots
Cabbage
Onions
Sweet potatoes
Peas
Spinach
Broccoli
Lima beans
Asparagus
Cauliflower
Brussels Sprouts
Artichokes
Torturing Food Animals for Cheap Meat
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Animals, like humans, have a natural way of life
 Cows, goats, and sheep graze, pigs root, chickens scratch
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CAFOs deny these natural behaviors
 Extreme stress (pain) for the animal
 No sunshine (constant artificial lighting!)
 No fresh air (never go outside)
 Many other torments
 Very short horrible lives
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Live in fecal material (ground/air)
 Antibiotics required to keep animals alive
 High risk to human health
Animal Products – Not Grandparent’s Meat
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Animals earlier always part of diet
 Hunting and grazing
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Animals no longer graze freely
 Inhumane CAFO conditions
 Fed wrong foods
 Diet injures them
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Growing feed crops requires enormous amounts of fossil fuels
 FAO Report – Livestock's long shadow 2006
 Livestock rearing creates more CO2 equivalent than cars
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Americans eat twice what they used to
 US-271 lbs, Asia-60 lbs, Africa-40 lbs,
Central America-103 lbs
Manufactured Foods – Little Diversity
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320,000 food and beverage products in U.S.
 Average supermarket carries 30,000- 40,000
People don’t eat 30,000 to 40,000 different things
 Recipes not food –combinations of white flour, corn
sweeteners & hydrogenated soybean oil with chemical
flavoring & coloring
America’s “Flavor Industry” along New Jersey Turnpike
 Manufactures 2/3 of flavor additives sold in U.S.
 Flavoring/ coloring industry annual sales - $1.4 billion
 Also provides shaping and texturing products
Takes a lot of fossil fuels for a small number of foods
Soil Destruction & Water Drawdown
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Agriculture uses most of U.S water
 Ogallala Drawdown occurring
 Irrigation vital to food supply
 Not sustainable
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Erosion
 Topsoil becoming more shallow
 Part of giant monocultures
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Quality of top soil declining – pesticides
 1948–50 million lbs. 7% loss to insects
 1965–35 million lbs.
 1989–806 million lbs.
 2000–985 million lbs. 13% loss to insects
Agrochemicals changing soil composition
Why Don’t We Know This?
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Major cigarette companies are major food companies
Grocery Manufacturers of America control food info
Michael Pollan – “If it has a health claim, don’t eat it”
$30 billion advertising for food – $10 billion for children
Conspiracy with USDA
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Marion Nestle – Food Politics
 Explains corporate control
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Recommends: Eat less, eat fruits,
vegetables and whole grains, avoid
junk food
 Following her advice would
destroy industrial agriculture
 And harm medical providers
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Food companies control nutrition
 And information
 USDA supports agribusiness
Summary – Changing Times
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Peak Oil and climate change will dramatically alter our future
 Can’t have 10-to-1 fossil fuel to calorie ratio any longer
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At the core of the change will be a changed diet
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Sustainability implies “measurable” Agrarianism
 Must reverse tragic move from agrarianism to industrialism
 From 2% of employment farmers to 25% (or more)
 U.S. will become more Agrarian – like it or not
 Agrarianism implies health–of people, animals, landscapes,
soils
Industrial Agriculture is destructive of almost everything
 Food consumerism is a disease, not a lifestyle
Recommendations
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1. Learn – Ignorance of food system is appalling
 Due to deliberate action of food industry and USDA
 Learning includes understanding plight of workers & animals
 Everyone must master nutrition
2. Cut consumption to minimal healthy levels – 40% less
3. Change your diet to a healthier one – starting NOW
 Coming crisis cannot support current medical spending
 Eat seasonally and locally
4. Buy from Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) farmers
 Rebuild family farms
5. Plant a backyard garden – Must see food as life
Wendell Berry – The Unsettling of America
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“Earth’s growing numbers raises the specter of a famine more
catastrophic than the world has ever seen.”
Wendell Berry: …we should be at work overhauling all our
assumptions about ourselves and what we have done….If we
are heading toward apocalypse, then obviously we must
undertake an ordeal of preparation. We must cleanse ourselves
of slovenliness, laziness and waste. We must learn to discipline
ourselves, to restrain ourselves, to need less….We must
understand what the health of the earth requires, and we must
put that before all other needs...let us undertake the labors of
wisdom and make the necessary sacrifices of luxury and
comfort”. – The Unsettling of America, 1977