What I Learned
in School
(in only 15,695 days)
William E. Rees, PhD, FRSC
UBC School of Community and Regional Planning
Putting Wisdom to Work: Sustainable Future?
Building Sustainable Communities:
Change at the Speed of Imagination
Kelowna, BC (25-28 Nov 2013)
Summary of Major Lessons
Despite what I was taught as a “scientist in training”:
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H. sapiens is not primarily a “rational” species, especially in
respect to longer term trends or distant events;
Individuals and institutions readily accept new information only
if it reinforces the status quo; otherwise it is rejected or denied;
“Reality” is socially constructed—we make it up, partially in
our own image—and it is almost never as it seems;
We exist as interdependent, cooperative, social entities
(individuals and institutions) within a fully integrated ecosphere
of interdependent ecosystems and yet we are taught (e.g., in
economics) to act as if the world were a set of isolated,
independent, competing or non-interacting atoms;
The current generation(s) of people are the most successfully
socially-engineered generations ever to walk the face of Earth;
We have all the intelligence and resources necessary for a
smooth transition to sustainability, yet prospects for success are
grim.
This is a World
in Overshoot
Human Demand:
Our Global ecological
Footprint
Nature’s Supply:
Global Biocapacity
Overshoot – Human demand now outstrips
ecosystems supply. It takes more than 1.5 years
for the earth to regenerate the renewable
resources humans consume in a year.
The Global Picture
global biocapacity:
12.0 billion hectares
ffads
OVERSHOOT:
Economic and
material growth
today is being
financed, in part,
by the liquidation
of essential, nonsubstitutable selfproducing natural
capital and at the
expense of global
life support
systems.
current human eco-footprint:
19.0 billion hectares
Proximal driver: The Anomalous,
Unsustainable Oil-Based
Expansion of the Human Enterprise
2013 Population:
7.1 billion
The serious use of fossil fuel beginning in the 19th
Century allowed the explosive growth of the
human enterprise
Continuous growth—population and economic—is an anomaly. The growth spurt that recent
generations take to be normal is the single most abnormal period of human history.
Symptom: A 40% increase in atmospheric CO2 in
the past century
400 ppm
May 2013
Rate of
increase
(ppm/year)
1970-79: 1.3
1990-99: 1.5
2000-07: 2.3
(accelerating!)
Result? Mean global Temp Up
0.8 C° in 125 yrs
Green bars show 95% confidence
intervals
The upward
trend continues:
we’re 0.8°C
above 18801900 average,
0.5°C since
1970. 2005 and
2010 are tied for
the warmest
years on record.
Recent findings turn up the heat
“Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends”
To stabilize GHGs at even [a catastrophic] 650 ppmv
CO2e, the majority of OECD nations must begin to
make draconian emission reductions within a
decade.
 Unless we can reconcile economic growth with
unprecedented rates of decarbonization (in excess of
6% per year), this will require a planned economic
recession.
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(Anderson and Bows. 2008. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0138)
(NB: 650 ppm CO2e implies a 50% probability of a 4C degree or higher
mean global temperature increase by the end of the century.)
In general, developing countries may be hit
hardest by global change
 5% or more of the world’s
people (350,000,000) are
likely to be displaced from
their settlements by sealevel rise (Stern report 2006).
 This could be 2 billion or
more with 4 C degrees
warming. In any case:
 Up to two billion people
worldwide will face water
shortages and up to 30 per
cent of plant and animal
species would be put at risk
of extinction if the average
rise in temperature
stabilises at 1.5C to 2.5C
(IPCC, Sept 2007)
Geo-Security Implications
The Age of Consequences (November 2007). Washington,
Center for Strategic and International Studies
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“We predict an [inevitable] scenario in which people and
nations are threatened by massive food and water shortages,
devastating natural disasters and deadly disease outbreaks”
(John Podesta, contributing author).
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Rich countries could “go through a 30-year process of
kicking people away from the lifeboat as the world’s poorest
face the worst environmental consequences”
(Leon Fuerth, contributing author).
Global Trends 2025 – A Transformed World Washington,
US National Intelligence Council (NIC)
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Global demand for energy, food and water could easily
outstrip available supplies over the next decade or so, thus
triggering trade-disrupting international conflicts.
When growth is uneconomic
Adapted from Daly (2005)
The optimum level of consumption is reached when marginal gains equal marginal losses.
Any further increase in consumption (economic scale) implies uneconomic growth (growth
that makes us poorer rather than richer).
Even the World Bank is waking
up to reality
 “The
projected 4°C warming simply
must not be allowed to occur—the heat
must be turned down. Only early,
cooperative, international actions can
make that happen” (World Bank. 2012.
4°-Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C
Warmer World Must be Avoided)
Why I started out as an optimist:
H. Sapiens has unique potential to resolve our
ecological predicament
Unparalleled capacity for evidence-based
reasoning and logical analysis;
 Unique ability to plan ahead;
 The capacity to exercise moral judgment;
 Unique diversity of mechanisms for
cooperative engagement;
 Compassion for other individuals and
other species.
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But is there evidence of intelligent
life on Earth?
Despite decades of hardening evidence and
rising rhetoric on the risks of global change, no
national government, no prominent international
agency, no corporate leader anywhere has begun
to advocate in public let alone implement the
kind of policy responses that are called forth by
the best science available today.
 E.g., COP19 (and all the other COPs) have been
dismal failures from the perspective of our
collective human interest in long-term survival.
 I.e., our greatest ‘environmental problem’ is
actually relatively primitive human nature—we
are temporal and spatial discounters by nature.
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Canada’s Complicity
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Short-term opportunistic economic thinking and market
values (sustained growth and market ‘efficiency’) have
become virtually the sole drivers of economic policy at
the expense of most other values.
The Harper government’s economic development strategy
and BC’s economic development plan, both based on
fossil fuel exports to the US and Asia will make Canada
one of the world’s largest exporters of climate change that
will visit eco-violence on hundreds of millions of people.
Both governments are in denial about climate change and
its impacts. (Does this constitute moral negligence?)
(BTW both economic strategies reaffirm Canada’s 19th
Century economic structure and role the world economy.)
How can this be? Are we
Trapped by our ‘triune brains’?
Cerebrum (Neo cortex
or ‘new brain’)
- logic and reason; forward
thinking and planning;
language and speech;
Corpus callosum
Limbic System:
(Mammalian
or mid-brain)
- Emotions, feelings;
responses to food and sex;
bonding and attachment;
memory
Reptilian Complex
(Old brain)
Cerebellum
(RC)
Brain stem
(RC)
- physical survival;
reproduction; social
stature; fight or flight;
hard-wired ritual and
instinct
On Human Nature: Tension in the
Integrated Mind
We think we are rational organisms. We ‘live’ in
cerebral consciousness. However:
 Circumstances in which reason predominates are
limited to relatively trivial circumstances.
 When safety or ‘survival’ (including personal
prestige, socio-economic status) are threatened, innate
behavioural propensities that operate beneath
consciousness (in the mid-brain and reptilian brainstem) will override rational behaviour. That is:
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Passion or instinct (including greed, short-term
opportunism and selfishness) often trump reason.
Shared Illusions: A collective shield
against the harsh barbs of reality
 “The
masses have never thirsted after truth.
They turn aside from evidence that is not to
their taste, preferring to deify error…” (Gustave
le Bon 1896).
 “For
us to maintain our way of living, we
must… tell lies to each other, and
especially to ourselves… [the lies] are
necessary because without them many
deplorable acts would become
impossibilities” (Jensen 2000).
Further complications pertaining to ‘reality’
– we make it up as we go!
The ‘social construction of reality’ is a universal
phenomenon within and across cultures.
 Every religious doctrine, political ideology, scientific
theory, academic paradigm, mythic worldview, social
norm and cultural narrative is a ‘social construct’.
 Each such construct is first birthed in language as an
uneasy blend of facts and beliefs, values and
assumptions; the whole is massaged and polished by
social discourse and frequent repetition
 A particular construct eventually becomes elevated to
the status of ‘received wisdom’ by tacit agreement
among members of the social group creating the
construct.
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Alternative constructs compete for
dominance
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Not all constructs are equally valid.
“You may say, if you wish, that all reality
is a social construction, but you cannot
deny that some constructions are ‘truer’
than others.
They are not ‘truer’ because they are
privileged, they [become] privileged
because they are ‘truer’” (Postman 1999).
Popper put it this way
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the scientist’s and the
lunatic’s theories have in common is
that both belong to conjectural
knowledge. But some conjectures are
much better than others…”
(Karl Popper, The Problem of Induction)
Even ‘hard science’ is afflicted
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“… a new scientific truth does not
triumph by convincing its opponents
and making them see the light, but
rather because its opponents
eventually die, and a new generation
grows up that is familiar with it.”
(Max Planck, 1949)
The problem is universal and persistent (i.e.,
it’s part of fundamental human nature)
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“Not truth, but error has always
been the chief factor in the
evolution of nations…” (Le Bon
1895).
“Wooden-headedness, the source of
self deception ...plays a remarkably
large role in government. It consists
in assessing a situation in terms of
preconceived fixed notions [i.e.,
ideology] while ignoring any
contrary signs. It is acting
according to wish while not
allowing oneself to be deflected by
the facts” (Tuchman 1984).
Why is this relevant?
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See the Lewis Powell Memo (or Powell Manifesto) of 23 August, 1971
at: http://reclaimdemocracy.org/powell_memo_lewis/
Read at least:
a) Lewis Lapham’s analysis (Tentacles of Rage: The Republican
Propaganda Mill, a Brief History) Harpers, 1 Sept 2004)
http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2004/RepublicanPropaganda1sep04.htm
b) this excerpt from Winner Take-All-Politics: How Washington Made
the Rich Richer and Turned its Back on the Middle Class (J.S Hacker
and P. Pierson) at: http://billmoyers.com/content/the-powell-memo-acall-to-arms-for-corporations/
c) Bill Moyers’ analysis at: http://www.truthout.org/opinion/item/4580:bill-moyers-our-politicians-are-moneylaunderers-in-the-trafficking-of-power-and-policy-2
The Powell Memo galvanized business
circles in reframing popular political discourse
Powell asserted that:
 the “American economic system is under broad attack.”
 “Business must learn the lesson . . . that political power is
necessary; that such power must be assiduously cultivated; and
that when necessary, it must be used aggressively and with
determination—without embarrassment and without the
reluctance which has been so characteristic of American
business.”
 “Strength lies in organization, in careful long-range planning
and implementation, in consistency of action over an indefinite
period of years, in the scale of financing available only through
joint effort, and in the political power available only through
united action and national organizations.”
 The latter was to include the financing of neoliberal economics
departments, new think-tanks, and other front groups of many
kinds.
Result? A dramatic, rapid mobilization of corporate
resources in the mid-1970s (which persists to this day)
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The number of corporations with public affairs offices in
Washington grew from 100 in 1968 to over 500 in 1978. In
1971, only 175 firms had registered lobbyists in
Washington, but by 1982, nearly 2,500 did.
The number of corporate PACs increased from under 300 in
1976 to over 1,200 by the middle of 1980.
Powell’s impetus inspired the Business Roundtable, the
American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), the
Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, the Manhattan
Institute, Citizens for a Sound Economy (precursor to
Americans for Prosperity) and other organizations united in
pushing back against political equality and shared
prosperity.
One Example of Corporate
‘Engagement’
The Center for American Progress Action fund
identified at least $85 million the Koch brothers
have given to 85 right-wing think tanks and
advocacy groups in the decade and a half up to
2011.
 GreenPeace claims that from 1997 to 2011, the
Koch Brothers alone funneled over $67 million to
climate-denial think tanks and other front
groups, I.e., organizations who are working in
lockstep with the Kochs’ ideological agenda while
presenting themselves as experts.
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The power of neo-liberal constructs
over biophysical data and reason
Politicians often show willful ignorance; blindness
to scientific data and analysis (deep denial);
 Governments reject planning in favour of short-term
market indicators;
 Society has abandoned moral and ethical concerns
in favour of self-serving short-term opportunism;
 We promote crass individualism at the expense of
the common good (including our collective interest
in survival);
 Competitive belligerence dominates cooperation (in
both markets and international affairs).
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Once entrenched, a popular narrative
is difficult to contradict or dislodge
 During individual development,
repeated sensory experiences and
cultural norms literally shape the
human brain’s synaptic circuitry
in patterns that reflect and embed
those experiences. Socially
constructed patterned thinking
acquires a physical presence in
the brain.
 Subsequently, people seek out
compatible experiences and,
“when faced with information
that does not agree with their
[preformed] internal structures,
they deny, discredit, reinterpret
or forget that information”
(Wexler, 2006).
We have been socially engineered
to ignore reality
Result: This is a
new age of
unreason,
the 21st Century
Endarkenment
SO, THE QUESTION OF THE DAY:
Granted that passion, instinct and neural
programming often trump reason, we can
still ask what an intelligent, forwardthinking, compassionate species might do in
light of available data, the historical record
and on-going trends, to enhance survival
prospects for contemporary society?
The Obvious Answer
We have to re-engineer society to be more
ecologically sensitive, socially responsible and
community oriented:
 The global community needs to focus on the
design of cooperative institutions and
mechanisms to reflect humanity’s collective
interest in survival.
 All we need is a few hundred million dollars and
several decades—social learning, particularly the
deliberate construction of an entire cultural
paradigm, can be enormously expensive and a
gluttonous time vampire (Just ask the Koch
Brothers) .
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Society must consciously construct and
propagate a new cultural narrative
(i.e, when one model fails, construct a new one)
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For sustainability, we must learn to override innate
expansionist tendencies and abandon our socially
constructed perpetual growth myth.
We need a new global cultural narrative that shifts the
values of society from competitive individualism,
greed, and narrow self-interest, toward community,
cooperation and our collective interest in repairing the
earth for survival.
The world should be working to establish a smaller
steady-state economy that enables the human family to
live more securely and equitably within the means of
nature.
Motivation and Rationale?
It in everyone’s long-term best interest
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Individual and national interests have
converged with humanity’s common
interests. That is;
Sustainability is a collective problem that
demands collective solutions (no country
can become sustainable on its own);
Failure to act for the common good will
ultimately lead to civil insurrection,
geopolitical chaos, resource wars and
ecological destruction.
Bottom Line: Let’s get real!
In coming years, the human enterprise will
likely contract. As an intelligent, forwardlooking moral species we can choose
between:
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Business as usual – risking a chaotic implosion imposed
by nature followed by geopolitical turmoil and resource
wars or:
A well-planned, orderly and cooperative descent toward
a socially just sustainability for all.
The world community has no real choice but tolearn to
live more equitably within nature’s budget.