Generations
The role of Millennials, GenX, Boomers,
Silents and Plurals in society and culture
Dr. Pete Markiewicz
Indiespace/Lifecourse Associates
pindiespace@gmail.com
Topics
•
•
•
•
What are generations?
Cohort effects
Defining generations
Generational models
– Generation Me
– GenY
– Millennials
• The S&H generational model
– Features
– Evidence
What are generations?
•
•
•
•
Common birth range (cohorts)
Shared place in history, common experience
Features cross gender, racial, ethnic lines
Retain attitudes independently of their
biological age
Generations DO NOT define individuals. Rather, they
are a public “archetype” referenced by
individuals within the generation.
Life Stage vs. Generation
• Example of “Life Stage” statements
“…Kids always rebel”
“…old people are conservative”
• Example of “Generational” statements
“…Boomers are re-defining what it means to be old”
“...Youth today are closer to their parents in values and
culture than the youth of 30 years ago”
What is generationdependent?
• Traits depending on cohort/generation
– Taste in music, pop culture
– Attitudes toward money, debt
– Sense of personal/collective destiny
• Traits depending on generation and life stage
– Politics
– Attitudes to children (the biggest effect is having them)
• Traits depending on life stage
– Candy preference
– Risk-taking behavior
• None of the above
– Expectations for children of immigrants
Cohort effects
US CD sales by age, 1991-2005
40
Baby Boomers purchase more music
than other generations, even
as they grow older
35
30
Napster
10 to 14
15 to 19
25
Younger generations were buying
less music before Napster
20
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
15
35 to 39
40+
10
5
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
19
91
0
SOURCE: RIAA
Cohort effects
Suicide Rates, Teen and Adults
0.21
Boomers in 1979
0.19
Boomers in 2003
0.17
0.15
2003
0.13
1979
0.11
0.09
0.07
0.05
24
15
34
25
44
35
54
45
64
55
74
65
84
75
+
5
8
SOURCE: US 2000 Census data
Cohort effects
College Freshmen Survey, 1967-98:
Personal Objectives Considered Important...
Percent of All College Freshmen
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
1967
1970
1973
1976
be very well off financially
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
develop meaningful philosophy of life
Source: UCLA Freshman Poll, "The American Freshman" (1997, 1999)
http://www.gseis.ucla.edu/heri/norms06.php
Out of wedlock – age effects
90.05
Out of Wedlock Births, by Age, 1980-2008
80.05
70.05
60.05
Ages 15-17
Ages 18–19
50.05
Ages 20–24
40.05
30.05
20.05
Ages 25–29
Ages 30–34
10.05
0.05
80 983 986 989 992 995 998 001 004 007
9
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
SOURCE: Childstats.gov
Out of wedlock – relative
3.05
Out of Wedlock Births, Normalized, 1980-2008
2.55
Ages 15-17
2.05
Ages 18–19
1.55
Ages 20–24
1.05
Ages 25–29
0.55
Ages 30–34
0.05
80 983 986 989 992 995 998 001 004 007
9
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
SOURCE: Childstats.gov
Defining generations
•
•
•
•
•
Birthrates and Population (parent optimism)
Society-wide attitudes to children
Parental child-rearing strategies
Youth “zeitgeist”
External behavior (crimes, community service
participation, chosen professions, pop culture)
• Internal states (beliefs, feelings, attitudes about
oneself)
• Perceived role in history (the generational “myth”)
US births - per 1000
35.05
Birthrates per 1000
30.05
25.05
20.05
15.05
Relative Birthrates per Thousand, 1910-2009
WWII Gen
Wave
Boomer
Wave
Echo
Boom
10.05
5.05
0.05
10 935 533 958 963 968 973 978 984 989 994 999 004
9
1
1 19
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
SOURCE: Childstats.gov
US births - absolute
Absolute Births, 1910-2009
4,500,000
4,000,000
Boomer
Millions
Millennial
3,500,000
3,000,000
Xer
2,500,000
Silent
2,000,000
0 35 53 58 63 68 73 78 84 89 94 99 04
1
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20
US population by age
U.S. Youth Population, Aged 15-24
in Millions, 1930 to 2020
45
Yearly Births, Millions
40
Millennial
Wave
35
Boomer
Wave
30
25
WWII Gen
Wave
20
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
2020
Future years taken from official middle series projections.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)
Desire for kids
Teen Pregnancy/Abortion Ratios, 1972-2008
6.05
Rowe vs. Wade
5.05
Fewer Pregnancies
Carried to term
4.05
Ages 15-19
3.05
2.05
Millennial Birth Years
More Pregnancies
Carried to term
1.05
0.05
72
9
1
76
9
1
80
9
1
84
9
1
88
9
1
92
9
1
96
9
1
00
0
2
04
0
2
08
0
2
SOURCE: Guttmacher Institute
Child-rearing strategies
• 1970s
– Child-rearing manuals advised letting the
child “raise themselves” to avoid hampering
parental self-discovery
– Children were seen as “little adults”
– Education strategies threw away rules in
favor of exploration
• 1990s
– Child-rearing manuals advised strict rules
with a paternal style
– Family values replaced self-discovery
– Children were seen as…well, children
– Education moved to standards-based tests
with scores and levels
Society’s attitude to youth
GenX (late 1980s)
Millennial (early 2000s)
Perceived role in history
• Generations may see themselves as:
– Heroes fixing the world
– Prophets redeeming the world
– Nomads trying to survive the world
• Popular culture (e.g. movies) archetypes may
describe generational styles
Generational models
•
•
•
•
•
Generation Me (Twenge)
GenY (Bruce Tulgan)
Millennials Rising (Strauss & Howe)
GenY (Ad Age)
GenTech/Net (Various)
How Generational Models Differ
• Generation Me (Jean Twenge)
– Focus on reported “inward” feelings
– Negative about youth
• GenY (Bruce Tulgan)
– Focus on “outward” characteristics
– Generations mapped to business savvy
– Neutral about youth
• Millennials Rising (Strauss & Howe, Winograd & Hais)
– Focus on “outward” characteristics
– Generations fit to archetypes
– Very positive about youth
• GenY (Ad Age) and GenTech/Net
– Focus on current media use
– Generations mapped to technology
– Positive about youth (as avid consumers)
Generation “Me”
• Developed by Jean Twenge, PhD
• Similar analysis in “Lost in Transition”
by Smith et. al.
• Emphasis:
•Uses reported inner feelings to
define generations
•Connects negative youth attitudes
to “broken” popular culture
•Blames rise in narcissistic behavior
due to indulgent Boomer parenting
styles
•Traces breakdown in moral
reasoning to “postmodernism”
education
•Fragile economy driving increased
http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/lost_in_transition_i
dependency SOURCES:
of
children
on parents
Gen ME website: http://www.generationme.org/
Lost In Transition, Christian Smith et. al., Oxford
Generation “Me”
• Features
– Overly-entitled attitudes with “special” feeling
– Relativistic reasoning
– “Submersion of self into private networks of technologically
managed intimates and associates.”
– Failure to launch from parents
– Maximize options/postpone commitments
– “Good” behavior due only to society pressure
– Alienated, anxiety-burdened, miserable inner lives
• Prescriptive
– Parents should reduce “I am special” parenting
– Schools should emphasize, critical thinking
GenY (Bruce Tulgan)
• Developed by Bruce Tulgan
• Several authors make similar analysis (e.g.
Carolyn Martin, Homo mobilis in The
Economist)
• Emphasis:
•GenX * GenX = GenY
•Pampered, nurtured, programmed
by indulgent parents
•Polished by social networks
•More information-savvy than their
bosses
•Raised to equate social
interaction with network
communication
•Born to multitask
GenY (Bruce Tulgan)
• Features:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Expect constant praise for “specialness”
Information-smart: more factoids at their fingertips
Local transactions are the only reality
Constantly optimize work & life via social networks
Demand work-life balance
High value on personal self fulfillment
Ignore business hierarchy
• Prescriptive
–
–
–
–
More equal employer-employee relationships
Let them exploit their networks
Flexibility in work time, methods
Clearly describe, “gamelike” levels in a career
Strauss & Howe
• Developed by Bill Strauss & Neil Howe
• Similar analysis by Morley Winograd &
Mike Hais focuses on US political cycles
• Emphasis:
•Uses outer behavior to define
generations
•Generations are defined by
parenting, zeitgeist
•Describes an ~80 year cycle
which sees the passage of 4
generational archetypes:
•Civic – Millennial, “Greatest” Gen
•Defines historical “realignments”
•Adaptative – Silent, Plural
based on features of rising
•Prophet
– Boomer, “Missionary”
generation
•Nomad – GenX, “Lost”
SOURCES: Generations: A History of America’s Future
Lifecourse Website: http://www.lifecourse.com
Strauss & Howe
• Features
–
–
–
–
–
Millennials are a “Civic” generation
They will shift society in a “conventional” direction
A “fix-it” gen repairing damage from the1960s and 1970s
“Special” and “sheltered” but also “achieving” and “pressured”
Millennials look to the group, rather than the individual to solve
problems
– Millennials represent the rising wave of a 40-year liberal political
realignment
– Someday, their “Prophet” children will rebel against them
• Prescriptive
–
–
–
–
Be Obi-wan to their Luke Skywalker
Treat them as rule-followers
Paternalistic management style
Let them work in teams
US generations - birth era
Total US births in millions, 1950-1998
4.5
Postwar Boom
Stagflation
The Long Boom
Millions of Births
“Echo Boomers”
4.0
Various GenY
Gen ME: 1970-2000
3.5
Births with
unchanged fertility
behavior since 1975
BOOMERS
GEN-XERS
MILLENNIALS
3.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Unchanged fertility means unchanged at every age from 1975 levels.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)
SOURCE: Lifecourse Associates, from US 2000 Census data
Generational ages in 2012
Silents
70-87
Millennials
10?-30
Boomers
52-69
Plurals
0-9?
Xers
31-51
Millennials are where Boomers were in 1972,
and Generation X was in 1986
“Boomers” (1943-1960)
• Childhood
–
–
–
–
Economic boom
Children indulged
Social stability
Standards were loosening
• Core values
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Ideological
Spiritual
Judgmental, pessimistic
Perfectionist
Narcissistic
Rebellious
PROPHET
“GenX” (1961-1981)
• Childhood
–
–
–
–
–
Economic bust
Children unprotected, criticized
“Latch-key” childhood
Social instability
Standards were loosening
• Core values
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Pragmatism
Authenticity
“No Rules” edgy
“Whatever works”, speed
Transaction-focused
Results-focused
NOMAD
GenX/Y childhood in media
1964 Children of the Damned
1979 The Brood
1967 Rosemary’s Baby
1980 The Children
1973 The Exorcist
1981 The Final Conflict
1974 It’s Alive!
1981 Halloween II
1976 Look What’s Happened to
Rosemary’s Baby
1984 Firestarter
1976 The Omen
1976 Carrie
1977 Exorcist II: The Heretic
1977 Eraserhead
1978 It Lives Again
1978 Damien—Omen II
1978 Halloween
1984 Children of the Corn
1988 Child’s Play
There’s only
one thing
wrong with
the Davis
baby . . .
Millennials (1982-2004)
• Childhood
–
–
–
–
–
–
Economic boom
Children protected & celebrated
“Helicopter parents” make kids friends
Ultra-planned childhood
Social stability via “Lockdown”
Standards were tightening
• Core values
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Special
Confident, optimistic
Rules-focused
Connected
Team-players
Socially conscious
CIVIC
Millennial parental generation
Boomer
Birth years
Xer
Birth years
Millennial
Birth years
SOURCE: US Census data, rebundled by generation
http://www.census.gov
Millennial diversity
Nonwhite Race and Hispanic Ethnicity,
by Generation, in 1999
40%
35.5%
Percent of Generation
32.1%
30%
24.1%
19.3%
20%
Other
14.0%
Asian
Black
10%
Hispanic
0%
Millennial
born
1982 on
Gen-X
born
1961-81
Boom
born
1943-60
Silent
born
1925-42
G.I.
born
1901-24
Source: U.S. Burea u of the Census (2000)
How parents created Millennials
• Boomer parents in the 1980s and 1990s ceased selfdiscovery – and focused on their children as “very special.”
• Hands-off child rearing was replaced by child protection
laws, “standards-based” school testing, and “no tolerance”
behavior guidelines.
• Even “progressive” Boomer parents developed hyper
protective parenting styles (Elaine Bell Kaplan, USC
sociology dept.)
• Millennials are most often the children of immigrants, (firstgeneration high expectations)
Helicopter parents
“…Jessica Wolf is being watched. Every homework assignment she turns in, every
class she attends, every test the 15-year-old sophomore takes at Sabino High
School, her mother, Tina, can simply log on to her home computer and check
her daughter's academic progress….via the Tucson Unified School District's
parental-access system, an online network that allows parents to track
attendance and grades and e-mail teachers.
At some other local schools, parents can even check what their kids buy for
lunch…”
SOURCE: Daniel Scarpinato, Arizona Daily Star, http://www.azstarnet.com, 10.16.2005
Millennial childhood in media
1982 E.T The Extra-Terrestrial
1994 The Lion King
1986 Aliens
1994 Angels in the Outfield
1987 Three Men and a Baby
1997 Liar Liar
1987 Raising Arizona
1998 Rugrats: The Movie
1987 Baby Boom
1999 Big Daddy
1989 The Little Mermaid
1999 The Iron Giant
1989 Look Who’s Talking
2000 My Dog Skip
1989 Parenthood
2001 The Princess Diaries
1990 Look Who’s Talking Too
2002 Spy Kids
1990 Home Alone
2001 Monsters, Inc.
1991 Little Man Tate
2001 Harry Potter
1993 Three Men and a Little Lady
2002 Big Fat Liar
1993 Searching for Bobby Fisher
2002 About a Boy
They changed
her diapers.
She changed
their lives . . .
Millennial traits summarized
• According to S & H, Millennials are…
– SPECIAL (wizards in training)
– SHELTERED (naïve about real world)
– CONFIDENT (I can do anything))
– CONVENTIONAL (rules, authority have value)
– TEAM-PLAYER (group most important)
– PRESSURED (work, work, work…)
– ACHIEVING (value society’s rewards)
Millennial reproduction
120.05
Teen Pregnancy, Birth and Abortion, Ages 15-19
100.05
80.05
60.05
Millennials
Pregnancy
Teen birthrate
lowest in 70 years
40.05
Births
Abortions
20.05
Abortion rate
Comparable to 1972
0.05
72 976 980 984 988 992 996 000 004 008
9
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
SOURCE: Guttmacher Institute
Millennial crime
Serious Violent Crime, Age 12-17*
Serious violent crimes are murders, rapes
robberies, and aggravated results
Offender Rate
Victimization Rate
Arrests
50
Millennials
40
GTA 1
30
GTA 3
20
10
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
0
19
Rate per 1,000 youths, 12-17
60
SOURCE: US. Department of Justice ·Bureau of Justice Statistics,
US DOJ Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention
School Shootings
Grade/High School Shootings, 1992-2004
50
45
40
35
Millennials
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
SOURCE: National School Safety Center Report,
http://www.schoolsafety.us/media-resources/school-associated-violent-deaths
School violence
Total faculty, student, staff violent deaths
With student homicide and suicides ages 5-18 at school
70
60
Student
50
40
Millennials
Faculty
30
20
10
Staff
0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
SOURCE: National Center for Educational Statistics
http://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/crimeindicators2011/figures/figure_01_1.asp
Drug use by generations
Share of Teens Aged 12-17 Having Specified Drug
Within the Last Month, 1979 to 1999
60%
Percent of All Kids, 12-1 7
50%
Boomers
Xers
Alcohol
40%
Cigarettes
30%
Millennials
Binge Alcohol
20%
Marijuana
10%
Cocaine
0%
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Source: U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (1999)
Millennial role models
Who did Millennial Tweens Trust in 2001?
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Parents
Teachers
Police
Music Celebs
Athletes
SOURCE: ZOOM and Applied Research & Consulting LLC 2001 survey of nearly 10,000 kids aged 9-13 for PBS
Millennial test scores
SAT Scores of College-Bound Seniors – 1967-2006
550
540
530
520
Math
Only
510
500
490
Millennials
Critical
Reading
480
470
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
460
SOURCE: College Board 2006 Report
http://professionals.collegeboard.com/data-reports-research/sat/archived
Millennial volunteerism
Youth volunteer activity, 1976-2004
Millennial religion & politics
Religion and Politics (2002)
70
Percent Support
60
50
40
Teens
Age 27-59
30
20
10
0
School Prayer
Fed. Aid to Religion
Restrict Abortion
SOURCE: UC Berkeley Survey Research Center as part of the center's Public Agendas
and Citizen Engagement Survey (PACES) project, 2002
Millennial house of worship
Millennial voting
Voter Turnout, Presidential Elections 1964-2008
80
Elder
70
18-24
25-44
Midlife
45-64
65-100
Youth
50
Boomers
40
Xers
Millennials
30
20
10
08
20
04
20
00
20
96
19
92
19
88
19
84
19
80
19
76
19
72
19
68
19
64
0
19
Percent Turnout
60
SOURCE: US Census, Historical Election Data
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/historical/index.html
Voting by generation
Presidential Election Turnout,
Rebundled by Generation, 1964-2008
80
60
Lost
GI
Silent
50
40
Boom
Generation X
30
Millennial
20
10
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
0
1964
Percent Turnout
70
SOURCE: US Census, Historical Election Data
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/historical/index.html
Negative trends - activity
Weekly Hours of Children Aged 3-12, by Activity
Percent Change, from 1981 to 1997
Outdoors
Free Play
-51%
-24%
TV
-13%
Eating
-11%
Percent Change
38%
School
Studying
58%
Organized Sports
86%
Household Work
138%
Visiting / Traveling
-100%
169%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Source: Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan (1999)
Negative trends - health
• Large numbers of Millennials have
documented disabilities
• Take drugs to get “better” (Boomers took
drugs to get worse)
• Lack of physical activity = obesity
• Millennials could be the first US generation
with a lower life expectancy than its parents
Negative trends - gender
Survey of Students Aged 14-18 in 1998-99,
Answers by Gender
Girls, 81%
I try to do their best in all
classes
Boys, 64%
Girls, 60%
I take the most challenging
courses
Boys, 45%
Girls, 49%
I give priority to homework
Boys, 31%
Girls, 32%
I earn mostly A's
Boys, 18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
Source: Horatio Alger Association (1999)
Millennial Gender Gap in College
College “gender gap” by age in 2005
Low-income
(Less than $30,000)
Middle-income
($30,000 to $69,999)
Upper Income
($70,000 or more)
1995-96
1999-00
2003-04
1995-96
1999-00
2003-04
1995-96
1999-00
2003-04
White
46
42
42
50
46
43
52
48
49
Black
32
36
36
48
42
42
41
48
48
Hispanic
43
43
39
46
51
42
50
52
49
Asian
53
51
47
57
48
50
52
54
51
All
44
42
40
50
47
44
51
48
49
Data: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Postsecondary Student Aid Studies, 1995-96, 1999-2000, 2003-04
Income ranges adjusted for inflation to 1995-96 dollars; Source: ACE Center for Policy Analysis
SOURCE: http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2005-10-19-male-college-cover_x.htm
Negative trends - work
SOURCE: Economic Policy Institute
http://www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/entry/leaving_in_droves/
Millennial economics 2012
• A typical U.S. household headed by someone 65 or older
has 46 times the net worth of one headed by someone
under 35
• The median net worth of households headed by someone
65 or older is 42% more than in 1984
• The median net worth for younger-age households was
$3,662, down by 68% from the 1980s
• Households headed by someone under age 35 had their
median net worth reduced by 27% in 2009 as a result of
unsecured liabilities, mostly a combination of credit card
debt and student loans.
Sources: Pew Research Center
US Census Bureau
Negative trends - debt
Millennial “Zeitgeist”
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Society becoming safer
Social norms continue to tighten
Heroes replace anti-heroes
The end of identity politics
The end of the “get rich or die trying” era
Entitlement (a generation’s naïve behavior)
Generation Debt (especially for school)
Failure to launch as the economy crashes
“Outsider” violence and threats
Girl power and “the boy problem”
Class replaces race, gender as the social issue
Politics and groups are (once again) the solution
Recommended Reading
Not Everyone Geta A Trophy:
How to Manage Generation Y
by Bruce Tulgan (2009, Wiley)
ISBN: 978-0-470-25626-8
Millennial Makeover: MySpace,
YouTube & The Future of American
Politics by Morley Winograd, (2008,
Rutgers) ISBN: 0-8135-4301-0
Millennials Incorporated
by Lisa Orrell (2008, WyattMacKenzie) ISBN: 978-1-932279-82-5
Millennials and the Pop Culture by Pete
Markiewicz, (2005, Lifecourse)
http://lifecourse.com/store/books.html
Generations: A History of America’s
Future 1594 to 2069 by William Strauss
& Neil Howe (1992, Harper)
ISBN: 0688119123
Millennials Rising: The Next Great
Generation
(2000, Vintage), ISBN: 037570719-0