A National Program
for
Understanding the
Mechanisms of Mind
James S. Albus
Senior NIST Fellow
Intelligent Systems Division
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Bldg 220, Rm B-124
Gaithersburg, MD 20899
james.albus@nist.gov
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Goal
A Scientific Theory of Mind
Extend the frontiers of human knowledge
to include a scientific understanding
of the processes in the human brain
that give rise to the phenomenon of mind.
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Approach
Bring together researchers from top laboratories
around the country with a common focus for a
"Decade of the Mind"
Integrate elements from existing programs in:
Neurosciences – neurophysiology, brain modeling
Cognitive sciences – psychology, reasoning
Computer sciences – AI, simulation & modeling
Control theory – mechanisms and control
Game theory – decision making, cost/benefit analysis
Robotics – perception, world modeling, behavior
Visualization – computer graphics, video games
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Why Now?
The science & technology is ready
Neurosciences – computation and representation in the brain
- biochemistry, synaptic transmission, functional modules, brain imaging
Cognitive Modeling – representation and use of knowledge
- mathematics, logic, language, learning, problem solving
Intelligent Control – making machines behave appropriately
- manufacturing, autonomous vehicles, manipulation, locomotion
Computational Power – speed and memory that rival the brain
- >1010 ops today, heading for >1015 ops.
Depth Imaging – geometrical modeling of 3-D world
- image & map segmentation, classification, symbol grounding
Integration across disciplines – reference model architecture
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
We are at a tipping point
Analogous to where nuclear physics was in 1905
• Fundamental processes are understood in principle
Perception
World modeling
Reasoning
Planning
Control
Brain structure and function
Cognitive & control architectures
Computational equivalence
Language
Learning & memory
• Technology is emerging to conduct definitive
experiments
• Significant military and economic applications
will develop early in the century
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
We live at a unique point in the history
of science. The technology to discover
and characterize how the subjective mind
emerges out of the objective brain is
within reach. The next years will prove
decisive.
-- Christof Koch
from The Quest for Consciousness
2004
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Computational power
will soon be available
Computing power of human brain ~ 1013 - 1016 ops
Today’s supercomputer >1014 ops
1016
Cluster of 10
1015
1014
Computing
1013
Power
1012
(ops)
1011
Supercomputer
Single board
Computational power
x10 every 5 years
1010
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Date
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Money Is Flowing
Military – Future Combat System,
UGV, UAV, UUV, UGS
Commercial – autos, trucks
Entertainment – video games
Academic – AI, robotics
Billions of $ will be invested over the next decade
Progress is rapid
Intelligent Machines Will Be Critical for
Military Security and Economic Prosperity
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
NIST/ARL Roadmap to 2025
2005 – Robust autonomous road-following
and off-road driving
2010 – LADAR cameras provide the range,
resolution, and speed to cope with dense traffic
2015 – Cognitive reasoning capabilities enable
useful tactical behaviors on the battlefield
2020 – Cognitive reasoning and tactical behaviors
approach human levels of performance
2025 – Autonomous combat vehicles surpass human
levels of performance in most, if not all, areas
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
A Plan for
A National Program for
Understanding the
Mechanisms of Mind
1. Theory and Fundamental Science
2. Experimental Test Environment
3. Practical Applications
4. Performance Metrics
5. Social, Ethical, and Legal Issues
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
First Draft of a Plan
1. Theory and Fundamental Science
Goals:
a) To develop theoretical models of the brain that
describe the inputs and outputs of all of the major
neural modules and systems of the brain, and specify
the functional transformations that take place therein.
b) To develop theoretical models of the mind that
generate the functional equivalent of the phenomena
of perception, cognition, intention, imagination,
memory, learning, feeling, emotion, and behaviors
of manipulation, locomotion, and language.
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
First Draft of a Plan
2. Experimental Test Environment
Goals:
a) To develop experimental models of the brain
that mimic the inputs and outputs of functional
modules in the brain, and mimic the functional
transformations that take place therein.
b) To demonstrate the performance of brain models
in controlling systems applied to real-world tasks
of locomotion, manipulation, imagination, reasoning,
and natural language conversation.
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
First Draft of a Plan
3. Practical Applications
Goal:
To apply intelligent systems technology to social
and economic problems such as:
Manufacturing – autos, appliances, planes, drugs, textiles
Construction – roads, bridges, homes, businesses, factories
Transportation – trucks, cars, buses, planes, trains
Agriculture – planting, harvesting, tending, aquaculture
Mining and drilling – digging, hauling, undersea ops
Recycling and environmental restoration
Renewable sources of energy
Education and entertainment
Aids to handicapped and elderly
Medical and nursing care
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
First Draft of a Plan
4. Metrics
Goals:
a) To develop methods and measures for verifying,
validating, and evaluating models of mind and brain.
b) To develop methods and measures for measuring
the performance of intelligent machines and systems.
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
First Draft of a Plan
5. Social & Ethical Issues
Goal:
a) To confront the social, ethical, legal, and philosophical
issues related to investigating the human mind,
including the implications for mental health.
b) To provide a forum for public debate of the potential
costs, risks, and benefits of understanding the mind,
including possible religious and civil liberties objections.
c) To address issues of unemployment, economic growth,
and environmental implications of intelligent machines.
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
How Much Should We Invest?
Investment should be commensurate
with expected benefits
NIST Study of Economic Impact
on Manufacturing and Construction
DOT Studies on Safety Impact
of Driver Warning and Collision Avoidance Systems
DOD Studies on Military Impact
of Robotic Vehicles on the Battlefield
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Similar National Investments
Human Genome Program ~$3 Billion
Hubble Space Telescope ~$3 Billion
Apollo Moon Expedition ~ $20 Billion
International Space Station ~$100 Billion
Iraq war ~$2 Billion/week
A Rational National Investment:
$4 Billion over a Decade in
Understanding the Human Mind
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
DARPA interest is high and will continue
-- Dr. Tony Tether
DARPA Director
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures (BICA)
Biomemetic Computing
Personalized Assistant that Learns (PAL)
Transfer Learning
Integrated Learning
Architectures for Cognitive Information Processing (ACIP)
Global Autonomous Language Exploitation (GALE)
Advanced Soldier Sensor Information System and Technology
(ASSIST)
• Real-World Reasoning (REAL)
• Coordination Decision Support Assistants (Coordinators)
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
DARPA interest is high and will continue
-- Dr. Tony Tether
DARPA Director
• Improving Warfighter Information Intake Under Stress
• Human-Assisted Neural Devices
• Revolutionizing Prosthetics
• Neurotechnology for Intelligence Analysts
• About to begin a program to understand how the brain and
vision system work together to process and recognize images
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Plans for Implementation
Krasnow Institute at George Mason University
will host a workshop in Spring of 2007
to Ascertain the Advisability of a
Decade of the Mind
Plans to enlist other agencies:
National Institutes of Health
National Science Foundation
NASA
Army Research Laboratory
Office of Naval Research
National Academy of Science
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Feedback Questions
If you wish to register your opinion on any of
these issues, please e-mail me at:
James.Albus@nist.gov
Or snail-mail to:
James Albus
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Bldg 220, Rm B-124
Gaithersburg, MD 20899
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Feedback Questions
1) Do you believe that a scientific theory of mind is
a desirable goal?
2) Do you believe that a scientific theory of mind is achievable:
within a decade?
within two decades?
before 2050?
before 3000?
never?
3) In your field of expertise,
if you had a $ 50 million budget,
and a 10 year planning horizon:
what program of research would you propose?
4) How much could you usefully spend?
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Feedback Questions
5) What areas of the brain would you choose to model?
6) What phenomena of the mind would you choose to model?
7) What parameters would you include in your model?
8) How would propose to test your model?
9) What kinds of experimental apparatus would be required to validate your
model?
10) How would you demonstrate and evaluate results?
11) What are the fundamental metrics and measures?
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Feedback Questions
12) What applications could be expected to result from success in what you propose?
in medicine?
in clinical practice?
in health care?
in manufacturing?
in transportation?
in construction?
in services?
in other areas?
13) In each area, estimate the economic and social benefits, costs, and risks.
14) What do you think is the best approach to raising money and garnering political
support?
15) What are the pitfalls one should anticipate?
16) What are the downside risks?
17) What agencies are likely to provide funding?
18)
What other questions need to be asked?
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division
Handouts are Available
NIST • Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory • Intelligent Systems Division