The Future of
(Artificial) Intelligence
Stuart Russell
University of California, Berkeley
Université Pierre et Marie Curie
Why are we doing AI?

To create intelligent systems
Why are we doing AI?

To create intelligent systems

The more intelligent, the better
Why are we doing AI?

To create intelligent systems


The more intelligent, the better
We believe we can succeed

Limited only by ingenuity and physics
An attempt will be made to find how
to make machines use language,
form abstractions and concepts,
solve kinds of problems now
reserved for humans, and improve
themselves. We think that a
significant advance can be made if
[we] work on it together for a
summer.
John McCarthy and Claude Shannon
Dartmouth Workshop Proposal, 1956
Why are we doing AI?

To create intelligent systems


The more intelligent, the better
To gain a better understanding of
human intelligence
Why are we doing AI?

To create intelligent systems

The more intelligent, the better
To gain a better understanding of
human intelligence
 To magnify those benefits that flow
from it

Anil Ananthaswamy, “I, Algorithm: A new dawn for AI,”
New Scientist, Jan 29, 2011
An industry arms race

Once performance exceeds a
minimum level, small
improvements are worth billions
Speech
 Text understanding
 Object recognition
 Automated vehicles
 Domestic robots

Military arms race
What if we do succeed?
“The first ultraintelligent machine is the
last invention that man need ever
make.” I. J. Good, 1965
 Might help us avoid war and ecological
catastrophes, achieve immortality and
expand throughout the universe
 Success would be the biggest event in
human history

What if we do succeed?
“The first ultraintelligent machine is the
last invention that man need ever
make.” I. J. Good, 1965
 Might help us avoid war and ecological
catastrophes, achieve immortality and
expand throughout the universe
 Success would be the biggest event in
human history … and perhaps the last

So, if that matters…..
Along what paths will AI evolve?
 What is the (plausibly reachable)
best case? Worst case?
 Can we affect the future of AI?

Technical or societal solutions?
 What should we do now?

This needs serious thought
If a superior alien civilization sent
us email saying, “We’ll arrive in
30-50 years”, would we just
reply, “OK, call us when you get
here, we’ll leave the light on”?
 The AI community needs a
substantial institutional
commitment, reasonably soon

Precedent: Nuclear Physics
Rutherford (1933): anyone who looks for a
source of power in the transformation of the
atoms is talking moonshine.
 Sept 12, 1933: The stoplight changed to green.
Szilárd stepped off the curb. As he crossed the
street time cracked open before him and he saw
a way to the future, death into the world and all
our woes, the shape of things to come.
 Szilard (1934): patent on nuclear chain
reaction; kept secret

Precedent: Nuclear Physics
Hahn et al (1939): uranium fission
 Szilard and Fermi (1939): uranium chain
reaction. “That night, there was very little doubt
in my mind that the world was headed for grief.”
 Einstein/Szilard (1939): letter to Pres.
Roosevelt urging development of nuclear
weapons before Nazis
 Szilard et 70 al (1945): petition to end war by
inviting Japanese to A-bomb test
 Emergency Committee of Atomic Scientists

Precedent: Chemical and
Biological Weapons
1925 Geneva Protocol banned use in warfare,
but R&D, stockpiling continued
 Long negotiations (until 1972 for biological,
1992 for chemical weapons)
 1975 (biological) and 1997 (chemical) treaties
ban “development, production, acquisition,
stockpiling, retention, transfer or use”

Precedent: Genetic Engineering
1973-4: Paul Berg stopped his own experiment
to insert carcinogenic virus DNA into E. coli;
prominent scientists request a moratorium on
recombinant DNA experiments
 Asilomar conference (1975) set up guidelines:


Physical, biological containment; risk analysis Ban
on disease/toxin organism manipulation
Credited with avoiding restrictive legislation
 Industry compliance via FDA controls on sales

Precedent: Genetic Engineering
NIH Recombinant DNA Advisory Committee
will not approve any protocol modifying
human germline
 Cartagena Protocol (2003) governs trade in
GMOs, enshrines precautionary principle
 2010: Pres. Commission proposes federal
oversight of synthetic biology activities
 2012: 100+ NGOs call for worldwide
moratorium

The process is beginning
MIRI, FHI, CSER, FLI, etc.
 AAAI task force (Horvitz & Selman)
 US Air Force: Test, Evaluation,
Verification, and Validation for
Autonomy

The process is beginning
MIRI, FHI, CSER, FLI, etc.
 AAAI task force (Horvitz & Selman)
 US Air Force: Test, Evaluation,
Verification, and Validation for
Autonomy
 Today’s meeting

Meeting Schedule
1.00-1.30
1.30-1.50
1.50-2.10
2.10-2.30
2.30-2.50
2.50-3.10
3.10-3.30
3.30-5.00
5.00-6.30
6.30-7.00
7.00-8.30
8.30-10.30
Introductions (Russell)
Robots (Veloso)
Intelligence explosion (Dewey)
Unintended consequences (Shanahan)
Autonomous trading (Wellman)
Ontology, organizations (Mallah)
break
Technical research agenda
Organizational/socioeconomic responses
walk to reception
AAMAS reception, Sorbonne “Cordeliers”
Dinner Le Procope, 13 rue de l'Ancienne Comédie
Technical research agenda


Verification/validation
Designing reward/utility functions




Iterated design/simulation/verification
Inductive specification from examples
Ensuring compliance
Theory of agents


Subsumption, composition, distribution, cooperation, transparency,
etc.
Theory of non-agents



Pure question-answering systems
Meta-non-agents
Bootstrapping methods



Superintelligent self-verification
Superintelligent boxing
If you were me what utility function would you give yourself?
Organizational/socioecono
mic responses

One international, professional society
Keep tabs on worldwide effort levels etc.
 Promulgate culture of responsibility, safety
 Develop standards for risk analysis/verification
 Keep decision makers and society well informed

Lobby for research funding
 Legal standards for liability etc.
 Conferences, conference tracks, journals
