Auto Embedded Software: Summary
Applied Market Intelligence
• EU position in auto embedded software is strong
• Strong future EU competitiveness has some risks
• Software standards will bring major advantages
• Software standards also brings commoditization
Indirect economic value and impact of auto embedded
software is much higher than direct market value
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture
Applied Market Intelligence
• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives
• Software standards: Upheaval impact
• Implications of Software Standards
• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News
• Current Problem: Infotainment Software
• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV Software?
• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?
• New Software Opportunities
• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
Worldwide Auto Sales & Production Trends
100
90
80
70
60
Sales
Production
Millions 50
40
30
20
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
• Auto production & sales growing from 60M range in 2009 to 90M+ in 2020
• Production is usually slightly higher than sales; except 2009
iSuppli Corporation – 3
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Regional Auto Sales Shares
30
25
20
2006
2008
2010
2015
2020
Percent 15
10
5
0
W.
Europe
EU-27
USA
Japan
China
• Developed countries are losing market share in auto sales: EU, USA & Japan
• China & others developing regions are growing their share
• EU auto industry must follow regional auto sales growth or stagnate
iSuppli Corporation – 4
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Autos In-use per Capita Trend
900
Autos in-use
per 1000
people
800
700
600
USA
W. Europe
Japan
China
A-P
Worldwide
500
#
400
300
200
100
0
2008
2010
2015
2020
• Autos in-use per capita shows that USA/WE/Japan are near saturation with little growth
• USA/WE/Japan auto sales are primarily replacing autos that are scrapped
• China, A-P and other regions are growing auto sales and autos in-use per-capita
iSuppli Corporation – 5
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
External Trends with Auto ICT Impact
Key Information
Comments
Green Issues
Lower
emissions
Better fuel efficiency
Less traffic congestion
Most
Accident
Mitigation
Passive
system: crash protection
Active systems avoid crashes
New
Connected
World  Car
Drivers
want connection
Car systems need connection
New
Infotainment
Expansion
Digital
Used
improvements from ICT
Most improvements from ICT
Emerging ICT shows promise
music growth
Mobile device growth
Digital TV & video emerging
systems are ICT based
New ICT warn/correct driver errors
ICT systems for connection
Emerging ICT functions
in auto audio systems
Connected to auto audio systems
Connected to passenger systems
ICT=Information & Communication Technology
ICT=Information, Computer & Telecommunication
iSuppli Corporation – 6
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Core Auto and Infotainment Systems
Domains
Powertrain
Function
Examples
control
Transmission control
Chassis
Controls the functions that
Steering control
guides the auto’s direction and Brake control
speed
Suspension control
Controls the auto’s safety
Safety &
Air bag control
ADAS
systems. Many new systems
Seat belt control
are emerging
Adaptive cruise control
Body &
Controls the driver and
Heater & air conditioning
passengers’ convenience and Windows & seat control
Comfort
comfort systems. Includes
Window wipers
dash board & related controls Instrument cluster display
Infotainment Controls the entertainment and Radio & music systems
information systems used by
Navigation systems
driver and passengers
Telematics & mobile phone
iSuppli Corporation – 7
Controls the power and its
distribution to the auto
Engine
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Key Auto Trends: Mostly ICT Based
Key Information
Comments
Powertrain
Trends
Gas
& diesel engine will improve
EV importance growing
EV’s electricity from many sources
Long-term EV will become leader
Mostly
Driver Assist
& ADAS
Trends
Mostly
warning systems
Mostly for luxury autos
Driver error correction emerging
Collision mitigation emerging
Future integrated systems
Lane,
Connected
Car Trends
Multiple
communication links
Telematics applications & services
Connected navigation systems
Connected auto control systems
Embedded,
Entertainment
Trends
Digital
Satellite
iSuppli Corporation – 8
radio receivers
Digital music player interfaces
Internet radio emerging
Premium audio systems
due to electronics advances
EV is a when, not if-question
Battery, engine-generator, hydrogen
Is it in 2025 or 2035?
blind spot, speed, parking
Ultrasound park assist is exception
Stability control and others
Improves safety systems effect
Based on ICT
driver phone & others
eCall, safety & infotainment functions
Traffic information & others
Remote diagnostics & others
radio in some regions
USB, iPod and streaming Bluetooth
High bandwidth communication link
Surround sound music systems
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
ECU Hardware Overview
Key Information
Comments
Microcomputer
(MCU)
Many
types, often defined by bit-size
32-bit are most powerful MCUs now
On-chip memory for many functions
On-chip electronic buses, several types
8-bit,
Memory
Extra
Additional
Electronic
buses
Multiple
buses: low to high speed
High-speed use separate control chips
LIN,
Sensors
Measure
On-chip
Actuators
Control
Reliability
Auto
memory for complex functions
pressure, temp, speed etc.
mechanical devices in auto
industry requires extra testing
Auto-grade more reliable than PC chips
16-bit, 32-bit MCUs
64-bit used in special cases
Program & data storage
Connect to other chips/devices
memory chips
CAN, FlexRay, others
Due to higher complexity
Usually
or separate chip/device
separate chip/device
For
better reliability
Higher cost per chip/device
Electronic Control Unit (ECU)
ECU is the basic building block for auto ICT systems
iSuppli Corporation – 9
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Auto Software Overview
Core Auto Systems
System
Examples
Application
Software
Examples
Operating
System
Driver
Software
Examples
Software
Standards
Infotainment Systems
Powertrain
Entertainment
Chassis
Navigation
& Body
Safety & driver assist
ECU control software:
Engine management
Anti-lock brake system
Air bag management
Middleware software
OS nucleus (kernel)
Electronic bus control
Pressure sensor driver
Fuel injection driver
AUTOSAR to be dominant
(Head-unit)
Telematics
ECU
control software:
Turn-by-turn navigation
Digital music player software
eCall activation software
Middleware software
OS nucleus (kernel)
DVD or disk control software
Speech input or output software
Display control software
GENIVI Alliance
QNX,
Microsoft Auto & others
SW Platform Standard: OS, SW Drivers & Standard Interfaces for Applications
iSuppli Corporation – 10
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Auto Functionality Is Mostly Software-Defined
ECU domain clusters
Software API standards
Remote SW Upgrades
The car is the most
complex product in
volume production!
AUTOSAR
Remote Diagnostics
ECU Growth
ECUs
SW Defined Car Era
Changeable operation
Graceful degradation
Digital Car Era
Platform architecture
Re-usable software
Analog-Digital Car Era
Digital control system growth
Complex SW-based product
are eventually linked to a
SW management center
Cars: not if, but when
Analog Car Era
Analog control systems
1990
iSuppli Corporation – 11
2000
2010
2020
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture
Applied Market Intelligence
• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives
• Software standards: Upheaval impact
• Implications of Software Standards
• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News
• Current Problem: Infotainment Software
• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV Software?
• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?
• New Software Opportunities
• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
AUTOSAR Implications
Category
Positive
Implications
Key Information
EU
companies lead standard effort
Multiple
EU
companies lead deployment
EU
Standards
EU
expand market size
company opportunities
Application
Negative
Implications
Other Information
luxury brands lead
Early
OS,
opportunity last longest
EU expertise gained
driver & applications
Applications
Standards
increase competition
Global
Standards
lead to commodity products
Post
Commodity
products has low profit
upgrades to come
need innovation
expertise, not local
2015 for OS & driver
Favours
low-cost regions
Current implications are primarily POSITIVE
Future implications: Some are NEGATIVE
iSuppli Corporation – 13
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
GENIVI Implications
Category
Positive
Implications
Key Information
Infotainment
Open
expand market size
company opportunities
Application
Negative
Implications
GENIVI
No
OS/API standard effort
source advantages
Standards
EU
Other Information
US,
EU & other regions
Low
cost, no dominant player
Many
OS,
opportunity last longest
not likely to be dominant
head start for EU companies
advantages
driver & applications
Applications
QNX
& Microsoft competition
Unlike
in AUTOSAR
expertise, not local
Standards
increase competition
Global
Standards
lead to commoditization
Post
Commodity
products has low profit
need innovation
2015 for OS & driver
Favors
low-cost regions
Current implications are primarily POSITIVE
Future implications: Some are NEGATIVE
iSuppli Corporation – 14
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Auto Software Standard Landscape
QNX CAR
Apps software interface
Reference platform
Used by most OEMs
2002 deployment
Core Auto Systems
Powertrain systems
Chassis & Safety
ADAS & Driver Assist
Body systems
Comfort & Convenience
AUTOSAR
Apps software interface
Software standards
Multiple MCUs
2009-10 deployment
iSuppli Corporation – 15
Microsoft Auto
Apps software interface
Software standards
Fiat, Ford, Hyundai/Kia
2006 deployment
Infotainment Systems
Audio systems
Navigation systems
Rear/front-seat entertainment
Mobile device connections
Telematics systems
GENIVI
Apps software interface
Software standards
BMW, GM, PSA, Renault
2012-13 deployment
Others?
Android
Apps software interface
Software standards
Conti auto platform
2012-13 deployment
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Software Standard Impact
Impact/Changes
level building blocks
OEM retains more control
Design details less important
Computer platform focus
New
Suppliers Contract manufacturers
Faster feature upgrades
Feature
Growth
Remote feature upgrade
Fewer ECU types
Cost
Savings
Higher ECU volumes
Re-usable system software
Better development tools
Fewer software errors
Commoditization post-2015
Commodity Hardware commoditization
Effect
Software commoditization
OEM
Control
iSuppli Corporation – 16
Higher
Comments
Computer
platform components
System architecture become crucial
Tier 1 may provide less value
bSquare, Elektrobit, Vector, dSpace
Flextronics (Ford Sync)
Platform-based design advantage
Used by Ford Sync
Standard ECUs tailored by software
Lower cost per ECU
Lower cost per OS & driver software
Higher software design efficiency
Lower software development cost
From local to global competition
Eventually happens with standards
New features to grow software value
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Auto Related Software Spectrum
Test & Diagnostic
Software
Software
Design Tools
• Software design
• SW simulation
• Software testing
Auto Embedded
Software
• Core auto software
• Infotainment software
• Future applications
ITS & V2X
Software
iSuppli Corporation – 17
• New core SW
• New infotainment SW
Transportation
Systems
• ITS software
• V2X software
Auto Impact
Systems
• PC software
• Mobile phone apps
• Digital content/SW
• Web content/SW
Infotainment
Software
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture
Applied Market Intelligence
• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives
• Software standards: Upheaval impact
• Implications of Software Standards
• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News
• Current Problem: Infotainment Software
• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV Software?
• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?
• New Software Opportunities
• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
EU Auto ICT Position
Category
Key Information
Other Information
Luxury Auto
Position
Luxury
autos always ICT
EU has 3 top luxury brands
Due
Strong ICT
Suppliers
ICT
innovation for luxury brands
Later ICT for volume brands
Non-EU ICT business follows
Early
Independent
Auto Suppliers
All
key EU suppliers independent
Captive suppliers in USA & Japan
More
Key ICT
Suppliers
Bosch
& Continental are leaders
Autoliv, Hella, Valeo, others
Across
Software
Companies
Many
small, strong companies
Mostly focused on EU ICT
Focused
Automotive
Semi
Infineon
Across
& ST Micro are leaders
NXP and others are strong
to initial high ICT price
BMW, Mercedes-Benz & Audi
market entry & leadership
Learning curve & tech advances
From non-EU auto manufacturers
competition & business savvy
Delphi/Visteon/Denso captive earlier
most ICT segments
Leaders in specific ICT segments
on specific auto mfgs
Some global success, more is likely
many ICT segments
Leaders in specific ICT segments
Current Status: Nearly All Good News
iSuppli Corporation – 19
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
EU Technology: Strengths and Weaknesses
Key Information
Other Information
BMW
Leading
luxury brand worldwide
Software innovator
Leader in AUTOSAR & Genivi
USA,
VW
3rd
Gained
largest auto producer
Leader in EU, China, other regions
Top EU electronics customer
Other EU M-B is another luxury brand leader
Auto OEMs M-B: 2nd to BMW in SW innovation
Others
are average in SW
Europe and other regions
Crucial to continued EU SW leadership
Understands benefits of SW API
share in 2009 recession
Strong presence in most regions
Software, semiconductor & electronics
USA,
Europe and other regions
Strong in driver assist and ADAS
PSA, Renault & Fiat
Tier 1
Companies
Bosch
& Continental: World-class
Many other strong companies
EU has strongest Tier 1 companies
Multiple
Semi
Companies
EU
Weakness
Infineon
& ST Micro: World-class
NXP strong in infotainment
Across
Too
EU
focused on combustion engine
EV: when-question, not if-question
EU can catch-up in EV
Infotainment SW is fair to good
iSuppli Corporation – 20
segments, Strong in SW
Autoliv, Hella, Magneti, Valeo
EU position, but also other regions
multiple auto segments
Other good companies in automotive
strength, but will fade post 2020
EU has the most to lose
Requires public-private effort
More infotainment effort needed
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
EU Embedded Software SWOT: Current
Strengths
Opportunities
Luxury car leader: most SW is introduced
AUTOSAR: Standards leadership
AUTOSAR: SW competency & deployment
Diesel & gasoline engine software
Chassis control software (ABS, ESC)
Safety and driver assist software
Software and software tool companies
V2X R&D programs (CVIS & others)
 EV software advances may make EU
Weaknesses
Threats
leaders at EV system level
 Auto apps store leadership
 ADAS software, systems & apps
 eCall regulation as way to catch-up
in telematics & connected car apps
 V2X software & systems (regulation
needed)
 Autonomous driving (post-2020)
 AUTOSAR commodity software
Current EV deployment
(post-2015)
Current EV development
Infotainment software OS & API standards  Infotainment commodity software
(post-2015)
Infotainment application software
 EV growth negates powertrain SW
Telematics software and deployment
market leadership (post-2020)
iSuppli Corporation – 21
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
EU Auto Embedded Software Problems
Software
Current
Problem
Infotainment
GENIVI:
OS
Mostly
EU Infotainment OS?
Infotainment
Future
Problem
EV
Future
Problem
Software
applications
software
Engine
led by US companies
counter QNX & Microsoft
Few
EU software leaders
enough to react
Importance
commoditization
software
To
Time
management
AUTOSAR
iSuppli Corporation – 22
Comments
Software
to decline
standard impact
Worldwide
supplier base
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture
Applied Market Intelligence
• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives
• Software standards: Upheaval impact
• Implications of Software Standards
• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News
• Current Problem: Infotainment Software
• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV Software?
• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?
• New Software Opportunities
• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
Retaining EU Software Leadership
Strategy
Why or How
Minimize commodity software impact
Continue moving to advanced software
Target new promising opportunities
High-value opportunities
Strengthen infotainment software
EU can get better position
Invest in EV battery system software
Possible EV catch-up technology
Connect software to infrastructure
Local presence advantages
Improve software skills
Quality and quantity
Train software project managers asap
Highest software manpower need
iSuppli Corporation – 24
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
New Software Overview
Applications
Comments
Core Auto
Software
Petrol
& diesel engine control
EV battery system software
ADAS applications
Remote ECU software upgrades
Fuel
Connected
Car Software
Telematics
software & service
Connected navigation
Connected entertainment
Remote control
eCall;
Infrastructure
Connected
Software
V2V
applications
V2I applications
ITS applications
Collision
Autonomous
Driving
Platoon
Post
iSuppli Corporation – 25
efficiency improvement
Not established yet
ACC, LDW, BSD
Error fix; functional update
Remote diagnostics
Destination download
Internet radio
Door unlock, lights on/off
avoidance
Intersection applications
Traffic applications
driving
Highway autonomous driving
2020 application
Post 2020 application
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Future Embedded Software Opportunities
Category
Key Information
Other Information
Connected
Car
Application
Software
Many
applications emerging
EU is behind USA in telematics
eCall: basis for telematics apps
Multiple com links emerging
For
ADAS
Software
Software
intensive systems
Many applications emerging
Builds on driver assist apps
EU: ADAS & sensor expertise
Many applications possible
EU’s CVIS R&D project is key
More EU development needed
Early deployment create expertise
Sensor-based
Builds
Deployment
V2V & V2I
Software
Autonomous
Driving
Software
iSuppli Corporation – 26
on ADAS & V2X systems
More autonomous functions
Compute, sensor & SW intensive
car, driver & passengers
Link to ECUs become important
eCall is EU chance to catch up
ECU, driver & infotainment links
systems
Major life and cost saver
Warns or corrects driver errors
Leverage into SW leadership
Safety, traffic & fuel-savings
Public & private cooperation
To complete system architecture
Systems & software experience
likely after 2020
Complex ECUs and software
Large software opportunities
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Auto Embedded Software: Conclusions





EU software industry is currently well positioned
 EU has lead the development of auto software standards
 There are current weaknesses and future issues
Software standards bring many advantages to EU auto industry
 Re-usable software and more reliable applications
 Future software development cost savings and other advantages
Software standards are also bringing future risk to EU auto software
labor force size
 Shifting of software development & design to low-cost regions
 Due to software commoditization and lack of skilled software personnel
 This is the main threat to EU embedded auto software industry
Future software opportunities can lower the commoditization threat
 Application innovation is key to retain lead in high-value auto software
EU Commission need to understand that auto embedded software have
a multiplier effect well above its direct economic value
 Auto functionality and features are mostly software-defined
 Software is a major and growing factor in EU auto OEM competitiveness
iSuppli Corporation – 27
Copyright  2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending