Part II Exchange Rate Behavior
Existing spot
exchange rate
locational
arbitrage
Existing spot
exchange rates
at other locations
covered interest arbitrage
Existing cross
exchange rates
of currencies
Existing forward
exchange rate
Existing inflation
rate differential
triangular
arbitrage
Fisher
effect
purchasing power parity
covered interest arbitrage
Existing interest
rate differential
international
Fisher effect
Future exchange
rate movements
Chapter
6
Government Influence
On Exchange Rates
South-Western/Thomson Learning © 2003
Chapter Objectives
• To describe the exchange rate
systems used by various
governments;
• To explain how governments can use
direct and indirect intervention to
influence exchange rates; and
• To explain how government intervention in
the foreign exchange market can affect
economic conditions.
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Exchange Rate Systems
• Exchange rate systems can be classified
according to the degree to which the rates
are controlled by the government.
• Exchange rate systems normally fall into
one of the following categories:
¤ fixed
¤ freely floating
¤ managed float
¤ pegged
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Fixed
Exchange Rate System
• In a fixed exchange rate system, exchange
rates are either held constant or allowed
to fluctuate only within very narrow bands.
• The Bretton Woods era (1944-1971) fixed
each currency’s value in terms of gold.
• The 1971 Smithsonian Agreement which
followed merely adjusted the exchange
rates and expanded the fluctuation
boundaries. The system was still fixed.
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Online Application
• Find out more about the Bretton Woods
conference and the Smithsonian
Agreement at:
¤
http://www.imfsite.org/origins/confer.html
¤
http://www.mises.org/money.asp
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Fixed
Exchange Rate System
• Pros: Work becomes easier for the MNCs.
• Cons: Governments may revalue their
currencies. In fact, the dollar was
devalued more than once after the U.S.
experienced balance of trade deficits.
• Cons: Each country may become more
vulnerable to the economic conditions in
other countries.
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Freely Floating
Exchange Rate System
• In a freely floating exchange rate system,
exchange rates are determined solely by
market forces.
• Pros: Each country may become more
insulated against the economic problems
in other countries.
• Pros: Central bank interventions that may
affect the economy unfavorably are no
longer needed.
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Freely Floating
Exchange Rate System
• Pros: Governments are not restricted by
exchange rate boundaries when setting
new policies.
• Pros: Less capital flow restrictions are
needed, thus enhancing the efficiency of
the financial market.
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Freely Floating
Exchange Rate System
• Cons: MNCs may need to devote
substantial resources to managing their
exposure to exchange rate fluctuations.
• Cons: The country that initially
experienced economic problems (such as
high inflation, increasing unemployment
rate) may have its problems compounded.
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Managed Float
Exchange Rate System
• In a managed (or “dirty”) float exchange
rate system, exchange rates are allowed to
move freely on a daily basis and no official
boundaries exist. However, governments
may intervene to prevent the rates from
moving too much in a certain direction.
• Cons: A government may manipulate its
exchange rates such that its own country
benefits at the expense of others.
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Pegged
Exchange Rate System
• In a pegged exchange rate system, the
home currency’s value is pegged to a
foreign currency or to some unit of
account, and moves in line with that
currency or unit against other currencies.
• The European Economic Community’s
snake arrangement (1972-1979) pegged
the currencies of member countries within
established limits of each other.
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Pegged
Exchange Rate System
• The European Monetary System which
followed in 1979 held the exchange rates
of member countries together within
specified limits and also pegged them to a
European Currency Unit (ECU) through
the exchange rate mechanism (ERM).
¤
The ERM experienced severe problems in
1992, as economic conditions and goals
varied among member countries.
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Pegged
Exchange Rate System
• In 1994, Mexico’s central bank pegged the
peso to the U.S. dollar, but allowed a band
within which the peso’s value could
fluctuate against the dollar.
¤
By the end of the year, there was
substantial downward pressure on the
peso, and the central bank allowed the
peso to float freely. The Mexican peso
crisis had just began ...
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Online Application
• For more information on the Mexican peso
crisis, visit:
¤
http://www.cfr.org/public/pubs/mexican.html
¤
http://www.frbatlanta.org/publica/ECOREV/REV_ABS/janfeb96.html
¤
http://www.brook.edu/views/papers/lustig/1
14.htm
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Currency Boards
• A currency board is a system for
maintaining the value of the local currency
with respect to some other specified
currency.
• For example, Hong Kong has tied the
value of the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S.
dollar (HK$7.8 = $1) since 1983, while
Argentina has tied the value of its peso to
the U.S. dollar (1 peso = $1) since 1991.
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Currency Boards
• For a currency board to be successful, it
must have credibility in its promise to
maintain the exchange rate.
• It has to intervene to defend its position
against the pressures exerted by
economic conditions, as well as by
speculators who are betting that the board
will not be able to support the specified
exchange rate.
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Online Application
• Find out more about Hong Kong’s
currency board system (and see a chart
showing the resilience of the Hong Kong
dollar against external shocks) at
http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/currency/link
_ex/index.htm.
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Exposure of a Pegged Currency to
Interest Rate Movements
• A country that uses a currency board does
not have complete control over its local
interest rates, as the rates must be aligned
with the interest rates of the currency to
which the local currency is tied.
• Note that the two interest rates may not be
exactly the same because of different
risks.
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Exposure of a Pegged Currency to
Exchange Rate Movements
• A currency that is pegged to another
currency will have to move in tandem with
that currency against all other currencies.
• So, the value of a pegged currency does
not necessarily reflect the demand and
supply conditions in the foreign exchange
market, and may result in uneven trade or
capital flows.
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Dollarization
• Dollarization refers to the replacement of a
local currency with U.S. dollars.
• Dollarization goes beyond a currency
board, as the country no longer has a
local currency.
• For example, Ecuador implemented
dollarization in 2000.
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Online Application
• A table showing the currencies of the
world and their exchange rate
arrangements can be found at:
¤
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/currency
_table.html
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A Single European Currency
€
• In 1991, the Maastricht treaty called for a
single European currency. On Jan 1, 1999,
the euro was adopted by Austria, Belgium,
Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and
Spain. Greece joined the system in 2001.
• By 2002, the national currencies of the 12
participating countries will be withdrawn
and completely replaced with the euro.
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A Single European Currency
€
• Within the euro-zone, cross-border trade
and capital flows will occur without the
need to convert to another currency.
• European monetary policy is also
consolidated because of the single money
supply. The Frankfurt-based European
Central Bank (ECB) is responsible for
setting the common monetary policy.
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A Single European Currency
€
• The ECB aims to control inflation in the
participating countries and to stabilize the
euro within reasonable boundaries.
• The common monetary policy may
eventually lead to more political harmony.
• Note that each participating country may
have to rely on its own fiscal policy (tax
and government expenditure decisions) to
help solve local economic problems.
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A Single European Currency
€
• As currency movements among the
European countries will be eliminated,
there should be an increase in all types of
business arrangements, more comparable
product pricing, and more trade flows.
• It will also be easier to compare and
conduct valuations of firms across the
participating European countries.
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A Single European Currency
€
• Stock and bond prices will also be more
comparable and there should be more
cross-border investing. However, nonEuropean investors may not achieve as
much diversification as in the past.
• Exchange rate risk and foreign exchange
transaction costs within the euro-zone will
be eliminated, while interest rates will
have to be similar.
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A Single European Currency
€
• Since its introduction in 1999, the euro
has declined against many currencies.
• This weakness was partially attributed to
capital outflows from Europe, which was
in turn partially attributed to a lack of
confidence in the euro.
• Some countries had ignored restraint in
favor of resolving domestic problems,
resulting in a lack of solidarity.
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 strengthens € weakens 
A Single European Currency
€
1.80
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
1.00
€/$
€/100¥
0.80
0.60
0.40
Jan-99
€/SwF (Swiss Franc)
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
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Online Application
• For more information on the euro, visit:
¤
http://www.euro.ecb.int/en.html
¤
http://www.ecb.int/
¤
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/euro/
C6 - 30
Government Intervention
• Each country has a government agency
(called the central bank) that may
intervene in the foreign exchange market
to control the value of the country’s
currency.
• In the United States, the Federal
Reserve System (Fed) is the
central bank.
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Online Application
• To link to the websites of the central
banks around the world, visit
http://www.bis.org/cbanks.htm.
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Government Intervention
• Central banks manage exchange rates
¤
¤
¤
to smooth exchange rate movements,
to establish implicit exchange rate
boundaries, and/or
to respond to temporary disturbances.
• Often, intervention is overwhelmed by
market forces. However, currency
movements may be even more volatile in
the absence of intervention.
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Government Intervention
• Direct intervention refers to the exchange
of currencies that the central bank holds
as reserves for other currencies in the
foreign exchange market.
• Direct intervention is usually most
effective when there is a coordinated
effort among central banks.
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Government Intervention
Fed exchanges $ for £
to strengthen the £
Value
of £
V2
V1
S1
D2
D1
Quantity of £
Fed exchanges £ for $
to weaken the £
Value
of £
V1
V2
S1
S2
D1
Quantity of £
C6 - 35
Online
Application
http://www.federalreserve.gov
Treasury and Federal Reserve Foreign Exchange Operations
During the third quarter of 2000, the dollar appreciated 8.2 percent
against the euro and 2.0 percent against the yen. On a tradeweighted basis, the dollar ended the quarter 4.1 percent stronger
against the currencies of the United States' major trading partners.
On September 22, the U.S. monetary authorities intervened in the
foreign exchange markets, purchasing 1.5 billion euros against the
dollar. The operation, which was divided evenly between the U.S.
Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund and the
Federal Reserve System, was coordinated with the European
Central Bank and the monetary authorities of Japan, Canada, and
the United Kingdom.
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Government Intervention
• When a central bank intervenes in the
foreign exchange market without
adjusting for the change in money supply,
it is said to engaged in nonsterilized
intervention.
• In a sterilized intervention, Treasury
securities are purchased or sold at the
same time to maintain the money supply.
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Nonsterilized Intervention
Federal Reserve
To
Strengthen
the C$:
$
C$
Banks participating
in the foreign
exchange market
Federal Reserve
To Weaken
the C$:
$
C$
Banks participating
in the foreign
exchange market
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Sterilized Intervention
T- securities
Federal Reserve
To
Strengthen
the C$:
$
C$
$
Banks participating
in the foreign
exchange market
$
Federal Reserve
To Weaken
the C$:
$
C$
Financial
institutions
that invest
in Treasury
securities
T- securities
Banks participating
in the foreign
exchange market
Financial
institutions
that invest
in Treasury
securities
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Government Intervention
• Some speculators attempt to determine
when the central bank is intervening, and
the extent of the intervention, in order to
capitalize on the anticipated results of the
intervention effort.
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Government Intervention
• Central banks can also engage in indirect
intervention by influencing the factors that
determine the value of a currency.
• For example, the Fed may attempt to
increase interest rates (and hence boost
the dollar’s value) by reducing the U.S.
money supply.
¤ Note that high interest rates adversely
affects local borrowers.
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Government Intervention
• Governments may also use foreign
exchange controls (such as restrictions
on currency exchange) as a form of
indirect intervention.
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Online Application
• The Fed’s objective for
open market operations
has gradually shifted
toward attaining a
specified level of the
federal funds rate. Find
out more at
http://www.federalreserve.
gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm.
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Online Application
• During the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis,
some governments intervened in an
attempt to control their exchange rates.
Find out more about the crisis (and the
consequences of the intervention efforts)
at http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/.
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Exchange Rate Target Zones
• Many economists have criticized the
present exchange rate system because of
the wide swings in the exchange rates of
major currencies.
• Some have suggested that target zones be
used, whereby an initial exchange rate will
be established with specific boundaries
(that are wider than the bands used in
fixed exchange rate systems).
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Exchange Rate Target Zones
• The ideal target zone should allow rates to
adjust to economic factors without
causing wide swings in international trade
and fear in the financial markets.
• However, the actual result may be a
system no different from what exists
today.
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Intervention as a Policy Tool
• Like tax laws and money supply, the
exchange rate is a tool which a
government can use to achieve its desired
economic objectives.
• A weak home currency can stimulate
foreign demand for products, and hence
local jobs. However, it may also lead to
higher inflation.
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Intervention as a Policy Tool
• A strong currency may cure high inflation,
since the intensified foreign competition
should cause domestic producers to
refrain from increasing prices. However, it
may also lead to higher unemployment.
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Impact of Government Actions on Exchange Rates
Government
Monetary
and Fiscal Policies
Relative Interest
Rates
Relative Inflation
Rates
Relative National
Income Levels
International
Capital Flows
Exchange Rates
International
Trade
Government
Purchases & Sales
of Currencies
Tax Laws,
etc.
Government Intervention
in
Foreign Exchange Market
Quotas,
Tariffs, etc.
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Impact of Central Bank Intervention
on an MNC’s Value
Direct Intervention
Indirect Intervention
m

E CFj , t  E ER j , t 
n 
 j 1

Value =  

t
1  k 
t =1 



E (CFj,t ) = expected cash flows in currency j to be received
by the U.S. parent at the end of period t
E (ERj,t ) = expected exchange rate at which currency j can
be converted to dollars at the end of period t
k
= weighted average cost of capital of the parent
C6 - 50
Chapter Review
• Exchange Rate Systems
¤
¤
¤
¤
¤
¤
¤
Fixed Exchange Rate System
Freely Floating Exchange Rate System
Managed Float Exchange Rate System
Pegged Exchange Rate System
Currency Boards
Exposure of a Pegged Currency to Interest
Rate and Exchange Rate Movements
Dollarization
C6 - 51
Chapter Review
• A Single European Currency
¤
¤
¤
¤
¤
¤
¤
¤
Membership
Euro Transactions
Impact on European Monetary Policy
Impact on Business Within Europe
Impact on the Valuation of Businesses in
Europe
Impact on Financial Flows
Impact on Exchange Rate Risk
Status Report on the Euro
C6 - 52
Chapter Review
• Government Intervention
¤
¤
¤
Reasons for Government Intervention
Direct Intervention
Indirect Intervention
• Exchange Rate Target Zones
C6 - 53
Chapter Review
• Intervention as a Policy Tool
¤
¤
Influence of a Weak Home Currency on the
Economy
Influence of a Strong Home Currency on
the Economy
• How Central Bank Intervention Can Affect
an MNC’s Value
C6 - 54