To: Josh Silverman – CEO of Skype From: Brian Hayes, Keila McCarty, and Lesley Poberezny Date: December 11, 2011 Re: The Future of Skype EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Skype was founded “to enable the world’s conversations” (About Skype, 2011). Unfortunately, most Skype users take advantage of Skype’s free services, cannibalizing their subscription revenues. “At some point free doesn’t work anymore” (Reardon, 2007). The consequence of “free” combined with no advertisement (both on Skype’s software and of the company itself to consumers) is flattening growth. Develop a sustainable revenue model by defining product offerings and advertising the difference between Skype and its competitors, concreting that difference and “The Skype Edge” in consumers’ minds. Integrate advertisements into Skype screens and sell ads to generate further revenue. To increase subscription services and Skype’s presence online, rebrand Skype as software functionality for websites, beginning with social networking websites. Become the way the world’s youth have conversations by getting Skype into schools and introducing users at a young age. Get net neutrality passed to prevent competitors from blocking access to customers and don’t challenge them directly in large business sales. The Future of Skype 1|Page Strategic Issue #1 – Developing a Sustainable Revenue Model Skype seemed like a science fair project that caught on too quickly, certainly before anybody stopped to think “what do we have here and how are we going to make money from it?” As they didn’t do this analysis, we have. See appendix 1 and 2 for the SWOT analysis and industry analysis using Porter’s Five Forces. A look at one critical issue serves as an example: if one person can call another person on either a phone (which is billed) or a PC (which is free of charge), most persons choose will choose PC. This choice cannibalizes Skype’s subscription service. A second example bolsters our argument. Early founders of the company were reluctant to advertise on Skype web pages. They believed advertising reduced the value by cheapening the appearance. However, many companies (e.g., Facebook) have produced a revenue-producing website using advertising while maintaining an attractive web offering (Tehrani, 2011). Recommendation Skype provides multiple means to communicate, including chat, voice, file sharing and video. This enhances the customer experience for its partners and increases Skype’s relevance. Relevance is important to increasing ad revenue. To build on Skype’s incredible value as an inexpensive communication tool for companies that want to provide additional value in their services, such as social networking sites, tech support for businesses, education, etc, Skype should: Immediately perform an extensive product/market review to identify the markets it is serving and their unique needs Determine which markets have the prospect for sustainable revenue Drive growth and revenue subscriptions through strategic alliances with partners The Future of Skype 2|Page Skype has to define its product offering to determine the value delivered from each differentiated product and capture that value in an appropriate pricing model. It has to convey the value of the differentiated components to the market through an effective advertising/marketing plan. This can be accomplished with a Strategic Marketing Plan (SMP). We recommend Skype hires the Marketing Division of strategic consultant Hayes, McCarty, and Poberezny to help develop its SMP. The recommended consultants are experts in helping define the unique proposition in which internet companies delivers to the U.S. public. We also have international presence and understanding in the growing markets of Southeast Asia, Brazil, and India as we pursue our strategic goals in Year 3 and further. The SMP (Appendix 3) has to include expanding its subscription services and selling advertising. It may be difficult to go from “free” to “pay”, but by partnering with internet companies we believe there is an excellent chance to increase subscription services as well as make Skype more relevant. A look at the comparison graph (Appendix 4) serves as a pertinent, graphical description of the features, and value, in which a relationship with Skype produces. It is important to simply and clearly identify the unique values. It is a must a pricing strategy accompanies each unique value. Implementation The internet marketing consultant (IMC) should be hired immediately to develop the SMP. It should be noted the timelines in all the strategic recommendations can, and should, be implemented concurrently. We see minimal conflict in implementing all simultaneously. The SMP should be complete in 6 months (26 weeks) (Appendix 5). We understand there is the temptation to kick down specific tasks to a lower level and consider them nonThe Future of Skype 3|Page strategic. However, we believe Recommendation No. 1 to be so critical that many of the specific task impacts the company strategically, and can either lift the boat, or sink the boat, if due consideration is not given to its consideration, and maybe more importantly, its execution. Strategic Issue #2 – Shrinking Revenue Growth Though the revenue percentage and number of users has plateaued in the last few years, Skype has still been making money. We went out and surveyed some of our co-workers and friends over the last few weeks regarding Skype. The survey questions given to these coworkers and friends are in Appendix 6. The surveys indicated: Skype has lost its relevancy. Respondents reported that they used Yahoo and other competitive offerings to communicate with friends and family that live far away, not Skype. Skype is not visible enough. It has no other “in” gathering users to itself and is not partnered with other businesses that would help spread its recognition. Competitors could easily grab more market share, locking up the profitable revenue streams that Skype has had over the years. Recommendation – Social Networking In order to find new sources of revenue, they must partner with other companies in new, innovative ways. The eBay acquisition, and spin-off, has taught the technologies must be complementary. Skype operates as software, therefore partnering with web companies has the most potential. We specifically choose eHarmony (20 million users) (Warren, 2010), LinkedIn The Future of Skype 4|Page (100 million) (McEvoy, 2010) and Facebook (800 million) (Statistics, 2010) to give them “The Skype Edge.” These combined social networking providers will increase Skype users from the current 540 million users worldwide to an estimated 1 billion. Tremendous advantages exist for both parties therefore, partnering costs should be low. For example, Skype has a strong international presence which would appeal to the social networking sites with a predominantly American market. The social networking sites gain the opportunity to truly link members in real time, from chat, to voice, to webcam and conferencing. Each social networking site has its own value, but for example, an eHarmony member might want to Skype first before meeting their potential date face to face. A partnership with Facebook will provide the opportunity to tell Grandma by phone “great pictures of the farm, Elsie the cow looks happy!” Grandma will not likely download the Skype software, but somehow seems to find her way to Facebook. LinkedIn subscribers can have video conferencing to talk about opportunities and changes for the future in the market. Ad revenue drives traffic, cross-markets, increases the number of visitors to the page, and the average time spent on each page. All are important metrics for increasing revenue. The user registration models (where users are required to register and provide demographic data) provide excellent advertising value. Implementation – Social Networking In 2007, Facebook had designs to make their website more relevant. To drive ad revenue more time must be spent on each page. This is accomplished by relevancy. To drive relevancy, Facebook wanted an easier way to post photos to their website. This was accomplished by Parakey’s novel software, which in 2007 Facebook acquired (Statistics, 2010). Active users The Future of Skype 5|Page increased from 50 million in July 2007 to 100 million in July 2008, to 250 million by July 2009 (Statistics, 2010). If these partnerships can drive a conservative 10% increase in traffic, then it is possible the number of Skype Dial tones (the number of calls made daily) can increase from 20-30 million daily to as much as 100 million daily by Year 3 (2013). This is a 4-fold to 5-fold increase in revenue. The acquisition cost is low, so gross profit margins, which have averaged less than 40%, should be able to reach +50%, which would drive a net profit margins to +15%. A Pro Forma statement for 2011 is shown in Appendix 7. Ads can be sold to help increase the revenue stream. Skype was previously reluctant to advertise for marketing reasons. However, Facebook and other websites have shown the acceptance of advertising banners as a sustainable source of revenue. Some websites charge up to 36 cents per subscriber (that would bring in $36 million in ad revenue, or a pay per click model). This is an increasingly sophisticated business, but again, conservative estimates put ad revenue between $50 million and $100 million dollars and an additional $7 million of net profit (Appendix 7). Recommendation – Education Besides Skype partnering with Social Networking sites, we recommend they implement Skype into education. “Catch them while they are young” and the students will carry their Skype accounts and experience through to their adulthood. Our group started using different messengers, like Yahoo, that were available to us years back and now we all carry them through to our work, school, and even portably on our cell phones. It is something that has become part of us as the way we communicate. Through this, Skype can become both the way the world’s youth communicates into their adulthood and increase their relevance concurrently. The Future of Skype 6|Page Implementation – Education Partner with Smart Board™ at schools to enhance students’ experience and create “the Skype Classroom”. Smart Boards™ are becoming increasingly prevalent in schools. If Skype were an option on the Smart Board™, students unable to attend class because of illness could Skype into the session while home sick and not miss any lessons. By creating a “Skype Classroom” at top teaching universities, students learning to be teachers would incorporate Skype into their lesson plans, increasing the likelihood that they will use Skype in their schools once they graduate. The video in Appendix 8 shows an example of how Skype could be incorporated by having students Skype to other students from around the world. This story proves that Skype is a good program to implement into education because it will help students learn other languages and cultures in other countries. Strategic Issue #3 – Net Neutrality Net Neutrality, proposed legislation which would prevent internet services providers (ISPs) from controlling internet content or access, could pose a significant threat to Skype if not passed. This includes limiting the bandwidth to or completely blocking specific websites, as Comcast did when they prevented their users from gaining access to file sharing websites (Svensson, 2007). “Specifically, network neutrality would prevent restrictions on content, sites, platforms, types of equipment that may be attached, and modes of communication” (BemersLee, 2006). Recommendation Net neutrality places restrictions on the way Skype can market itself in the VOIP industry and how it can compete against competitors that are also internet providers themselves (AT&T, Comcast, etc). In order to connect with their customers, Skype will always be dependent on The Future of Skype 7|Page those competitors because they own the last mile. VoIP competitors’ also providing internet and those that are search engines offering email services have another method of garnering customers. As Skype does not have that additional gravity drawing users, nor the additional bargaining power it affords, they must position themselves differently in the market. Skype should not directly challenge large ISP-VoIPs in competition for large business sales, as they don’t have the bargaining power afforded by also being an internet provider, nor do they want to erode those providers’ margins to a point where they would choose to limit their customers’ access to Skype. They cannot appear to be enough of a threat to ISP VoIPs as to goad them into blocking Skype. By not engaging directly in competition for large business sales, Skype needs to target other business segments, most notably international or widespread businesses. As their offices wouldn’t use the same internet provider at all locations, Skype wouldn’t be impinging on ISPVoIPs’ business, but offering a product they do not. Skype should also cater to small businesses that do not have the leverage of larger businesses to ask ISP VoIPs for deals regarding bundled internet/VoIP packages. This would also not be targeting the core of ISP VoIPs business, again not goading action on their part. The biggest change and core business Skype should be chasing is to rebrand themselves to websites as a software company. While Skype is a software company, they haven’t marketed themselves as one, but rather more of a social networking website. By rebranding themselves as a software company offering additional functionality to websites, they find a way to increase their relevance online. As they previously marketed themselves as a social networking tool, this is where Skype should make its entrance: social networking websites. The Future of Skype 8|Page The future vision of this rebranding would be for Skype to further their mission statement “to be the way the world communicates” by becoming the way the world communicates online. In one sense, they will become the PayPal™ of online communication. When users have an account with PayPal, they have a safe, trusted method of transferring money online. They may not have an account with a specific website, but they have an account with PayPal™ and trust them to keep their funds safe. This means these websites don’t need to find their own methods of protecting customers’ identities. For Skype, this would mean users have an account with Skype and trust them to keep their information, conversations, and video streams safe. One password gains you access to the world. While all of these actions prepare for net neutrality, Skype needs to become more politically active in order to rally support and get net neutrality passed. Cell phone providers wouldn’t allow customers to keep their phone numbers when changing providers until consumers approached the FCC and passed Local Number Portability (LNP), mandating that providers allow their customers to do so (Portability, n.d.). Similarly, ISPs will not limit their own power unless the FCC steps in and enforces net neutrality by making it law. Just as Local Number Portability was first proposed by cell phone users, and gathered strength by spreading knowledge of the law amongst said users, the knowledge of what net neutrality is and what it will do must be communicated amongst internet users. A potential consequence of Skype rebranding themselves as only a software company would be the possibility of either a website or another software company purchasing them for their functionality, mindshare, and brand name, or perhaps their strong foothold overseas. While a website has previously purchased Skype, eBay wasn’t the best fit for them, as again they have marketed themselves as social networking software, not as an eCommerce communication tool. The Future of Skype 9|Page The company most likely to purchase Skype would either be a social networking site looking to capitalize on the brand recognition and software functionality or a software company hoping to integrate said functionality into their software package. Implementation To capture international and widespread businesses, Skype needs to use its popularity overseas to feed into American market. For example, approach a German company already using Skype services to get their American constituents to begin using Skype, too. Investigating what barriers are keeping their counterparts from using Skype could help improve offerings. Small businesses need to get a taste of what Skype could offer their companies. To get their foot in the door, Skype could offer a free month trial to small businesses applying for business licenses in a few major cities. Rebranding themselves as a software functionality for websites should begin with Skype proposing their services to social networking websites (eHarmony, Facebook, LinkedIn, etc). Finally, Skype must begin advertising on net neutrality and its potential consequences. Americans are extremely protective of their freedoms. Making them aware of the potential for that freedom to be limited by large businesses interested in protecting their profits will undoubtedly goad them to action. Further, this movement needs to be taken globally, perhaps as a covenant of the FCC International Bureau of the UN, whose purpose is “to facilitate the formulation and implementation of co-operation between [themselves] and the business community in a manner that ensures the integrity and independence of the Organization” (Annan, 2003). The Future of Skype 10 | P a g e SUMMARY Preparing themselves for possible sale will require Skype to remain faithful to their true identity as a software company and VoIP functionality tool. By remembering this identity and marketing themselves within the VoIP industry as such, they can begin to not only identify their niche (what they can do and what they offer than no one else does), but use that information to design a profitable business model/marketing plan, as mentioned above. In targeting social networking websites for partnership, educational programs for new users, and international and small businesses to expand current users, Skype is identifying its core users and their needs. The Future of Skype 11 | P a g e REFERENCES About Skype. (2011). Skype.com. Retrieved December 3, 2011 from http://about.skype.com Annan, K. (2003). Guidelines on Cooperation Between the United Nations and the Business Community. The UN & Business. Retrieved December 4, 2011 from http://www.un.org/partners/business/otherpages/guide.htm#principles Bemers-Lee, T. (2006). Net Neutrality: This is Serious. Timbl’s Blog. Retrieved December 3, 2011from http://dig.csail.mit.edu/breadcrumbs/node/144 McEvoy, T. (2010). LinkedIn to Create 100 New Jobs in Dublin. LinkedIn Press Center. Retrieved December 3, 2011 from http://press.linkedin.com/148/linkedin-create-100new-jobs-dublin. Portability: Keeping Your Phone Number When Changing Service Providers. (n.d.). FCC Guide. Retrieved December 4, 2011 from http://www.fcc.gov/guides/portability-keeping-yourphone-number-when-changing-service-providers Reardon, M. (2007). eBay: What to do with Skype? CNET News. Retrieved December 1, 2011 from http://news.cnet.com/eBay-What-to-do-with-Skype/2100-7352_3-6211053.html Research. (n.d.). Interactive Whiteboards. Retrieved December 3, 2011 from http://www.btinternet.com/~tony.poulter/IWBs/research.htm SMART to Install One Millionth SMART Board Interactive Whiteboard. (2008). Media Release: SMART. Retrieved December 3, 2011 from http://smarttech.com/us/About+SMART/About+SMART/Newsroom/Media+releases/En glish+US/Releases+by+year/2008+media+releases/2008/SMART+to+install+one+millio nth+SMART+Board+interactive+whiteboard Statistics. (2010). People on Facebook. Retrieved December 3, 2011 from https://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics Svensson, P. (2007). Comcast Blocks Some Internet Traffic. Retrieved December 3, 2011 from MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21376597/ Tehrani, R. (2011). What eBay Should Do With Skype. Internet Telephony, 10(11), 29-30. Retrieved from http://www.tmcnet.com/VoIP/1107/publishers-outlook-what-ebayshould-do-with-skype.htm Warren, N. (2010). Meet the Man Behind eHarmony. eHarmony. Retrieved November 3, 2011 from http://www.eharmony.com/ The Future of Skype 12 | P a g e APPENDICES Appendix 1 – SWOT Analysis Strengths First Mover Low user acquisition costs Firm foothold in Europe and Asia – more than 80% of revenue comes from outside the U.S. U.S. VoIP market continues to grow Opportunities Design a successful model for earning revenue Build on brand recognition to engender customer loyalty and boost revenues Skype has only 1% market share in the growing U.S. market Expand to new markets geographically and commercial/non-commercial markets Weakness 20 million online at any time, but mostly using free services No other “in” gathering customers to its services Group video chatting not available Does not advertise or incorporate advertising into their program Threats Shrinking growth as market becomes saturated Governmental regulation of communications (FCC) “Last mile” connecting Skype to consumers is owned by its competitors Quality of and access to Skype services dependent on internet access and quality Appendix 2 – Porter’s Five Forces for Industry Analysis Threat of New Entrants The technology industry is highly competitive, entrepreneurial, and moves quickly. Many of the technologies of yesterday are gone today and new technologies will pop up tomorrow, replacing today’s. Therefore is a high threat of new entrants and new technologies which may disrupt Skype’s market, just as mobile phones have disrupted traditional landlines and smartphones and tablet PCs have disrupted desktops and laptops. The Future of Skype 13 | P a g e Bargaining Power of Buyers The bargaining power of the consumer is strong. Skype offers an inexpensive way to communicate. Skype relies on being the low-cost alternative to traditional phone calls, so consumers who are willing to pay more for additional conveniences have plenty of alternatives. The consumer can choose from many outlets to communicate, all at various pricing levels, from the traditional landline, to mobile phones, texting services, etc. Threat of Substitute Products or Service The threat of substitutes are high, whether it is the alternative VoIP for landlines (Vonage) or Desktop computers (Windows Live, which boast twice as many subscribers worldwide) or any of the other various ubiquitous software and online search companies which have a mindshare of the connected consumer. In addition, there exist an increasing number of companies which operate on the internet and can easily develop and download a communication client, similar to Skype. This offers an abundance of director competitors to Skype. The Future of Skype 14 | P a g e Bargaining Power of Suppliers Suppliers have less bargaining power with Skype. Skype creates their own proprietary software which does not lend itself to relying on suppliers. Appendix 3 - Cost of SMP Skype Employees Skype Dir. of Marketing, 250k salary & benefits, 160 hours (8% of yearly capacity) Skype Mgr. of Marketing, 150k salary & benefits, 160 hours (8% of yearly capacity) $21,500 $12,500 Outside Consultant Internet marketing consultant 6 months (960 hrs) x 2 consultants x $200 per hr Total Cost $384,000 $418,000 Appendix 4 – Online Marketing Trends Online Marketing Trands, June 2011 ( http://www.onlinemarketing-trends.com/2011/06/skype-timeline.html) The Future of Skype 15 | P a g e Appendix 5 – Implementation Timeline Week 1 Week 2-4 Week 5-15 Week 16 Week 17-25 Week 25 Week 26 Implementation Timeline Contract with the IMC to set goals, guidelines and timelines Joint Strategic Planning Sessions between IMC and Management IMC research, polls, and develops strategy IMC presents initial findings to Joint IMC/Management Revise and rework SMP accord to Joint IMC/Management. Seek go/no go of SMP Present Results to Management Present Results to BOD Appendix 6 – Sample Survey Questions Question 1: Have you heard of Skype? Question 2: Do you use Skype? If so, what functions of Skype do you use? Question 3: If you do not use Skype, does anyone you know have it? Appendix 7 – Pro Forma Statement Skype Pro Forma Income Statement from Partnering with Social Media Websites (millions) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Revenue 72 194 381 551 718 812 Cost 50.8 140 228 290 338 400 Gross Profit 21.2 54 153 261 380 412 Operating Expenses, Interest, Tax, etc. 68 173 (1,252) 219 749 399 Net Profit (47) (119) 1,405 42 (369) 13 2011 1,137 568 568 409 159 2012 1,592 796 796 573 223 Skype Pro Forma Income Statement with incremental revenue from advertising 2011 2011 2012 Revenue 1,137 1,187 Cost 568 593 Gross Profit 568 593 Operating Expenses, Interest, Tax, etc. 409 427 Net Profit 159 166 The Future of Skype 16 | P a g e 2013 2,228 1,114 110 802 312 Appendix 8 – Skype in Schools http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrVm5njFXZ8&feature=fvsr The Future of Skype 17 | P a g e