THREE-GENERATION MODELS FOR
THE TRANSMISSION OF CREDENTIALS
IN THE NETHERLANDS, 1940-1984
WOUT ULTEE
MAARTEN WOLBERS
JOCHEM TOLSMA
RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN, THE NETHERLANDS
PRESENTATION AT THE RC28 SPRING MEETING AT
THE CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG
MAY 10-12, 2012
FIRST
GENERATION
1862 – 1950
1947
1880 - 1960
1955
SECOND GENERATION
1907 - 1979
1910 - 1983
1937
THIRD GENERATION
1946 - ??
1976
1980:
GOLDTHORPE
CLASS STRUCTURE AND
SOCIAL MOBILITY IN BRITAIN
1980:
COLLINS
THE CREDENTIAL SOCIETY
1979:
BOURDIEU
LA DISTINCTION
GOIN’ BACK QUESTION:
IS BRITAIN STILL A CLASS SOCIETY?
WHAT’S IT GONNA BE QUESTION:
WILL CREDENTIALS BECOME MORE AND MORE
IMPORTANT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY
DEVELOPED SOCIETIES LIKE THE USA?
SHIFTING MECHANISMS QUESTION:
LESS REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY BY THE
TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES?
MORE REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH
THE TRANSMISSION OF CULTURAL RESOURCES?
AND MORE RECONSTITUTION OF INEQUALITY
THROUGH AN INCREASE IN EDUCATIONAL
HOMOGAMY?
IF TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED
SOCIETIES,
AS INDICATED BY FATHER-SON
INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY,
ARE LESS AND LESS CLASS SOCIETIES
AND MORE AND MORE CREDENTIAL
SOCIETIES
THEN
THE QUESTION OF CREDENTIAL MOBILITY
GAINS THE UPPERHAND OVER THE
QUESTION OF CLASS MOBILITY
BREAKING DOWN THE QUESTION OF
INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY
INTO THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF CLASS
ORIGINGS ON EDUCATION
AND THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION
ON CLASS DESTINATION
DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH:
INTERGENERATIONAL CREDENTIAL MOBILITY IS
INTERESTING IN ITSELF
MULTIVARIATE MODELS HIGHLIGHT DIRECT (NET)
EFFECTS, WHEREAS TOTAL EFFECTS ARE MORE
IMPORTANT
AND SINCE MODELS OFTEN ARE NOT RECURSIVE,
INDIRECT EFFECTS REMAIN UNDERSTUDIED
THE TWO SMALLER QUESTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT:
WHEREAS THE QUESTION OF SOCIAL ORIGIN AND
EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT
IS ABOUT FAMILIES AND STATES
THE QUESTION ABOUT EDUCATION AND DESTINATION
IS ABOUT THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN THE
BUSINESS CYCLE
AND ABOUT LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICALLY
DRIVEN CHANGES IN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURES
BY DONATING AND BEQUESTING WEALTH TO
THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS ONCE
REPRODUCED CLASS INEQUALITY
BY SPENDING TIME AND DOING THINGS WITH
THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS NOWADAYS
REPRODUCE CREDENTIAL INEQUALITY
SINCE PARENTS NOWADAYS LIVE LONGER, THE
TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES IS
DELAYED
WHEREAS MORE CULTURAL RESOURCES ARE
BEING TRANSMITTED
OUR OWN HYPOTHESIS:
THE INCREASE IN LONGEVITY IS SO STRONG
THAT NOT ONLY THE LIFE SPAN OF PARENTS
AND CHILDREN OVERLAP MORE
THE LIFE SPAN OF THESE CHILDREN AND THE
LIFE SPAN OF THEIR GRANDPARENTS ALSO
OVERLAP MORE
IN CONTEMPORARY SOCIETIES THERE WILL
BE A STRONGER DIRECT EFFECT OF THE
EDUCATION OF GRANDPARENTS (FIRST
GENERATION) ON EDUCATION IN THE THIRD
GENERATION (CHILDREN)
FOR CHILDREN TO BE BORN, A MOTHER
AND A FATHER ARE NECESSARY
THEREFORE INTERGENERATIONAL
QUESTIONS AS FATHER-SON QUESTIONS
MAY BE OFF THE MARK
CREDENTIALS IN THE THIRD GENERATION
DEPEND UPON CREDENTIALS OF MOTHERS
AND FATHERS IN THE SECOND GENERATION
THE HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF A
SECOND GENERATION HUSBAND, THE
HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE
NET OF THIS, THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS
WIFE ALSO MAY BE HIGHER IF HIS FATHER
(FIRST GENERATION) HAS HIGHER
CREDENTIALS TOO
FIRST
SECOND
???
???
SPOUSE
SECOND
THIRD
SO, THE TOTAL EFFECT OF
CREDENTIALS IN THE FIRST
GENERATION ON THE CREDENTIALS
OF THE THIRD GENERATION MAY
CONSIST OF
1) A DIRECT EFFECT PLUS
2) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF
THE SECOND GENERATION PLUS
3) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF
THE SECOND GENERATION SPOUSE
IF NO DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST
ON THE THIRD GENERATION IS
FOUND,
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE
IS NO TOTAL EFFECT OF THE FIRST
ON THE THIRD GENERATION
THE SECOND ??? IS A !!!
FOR THE NETHERLANDS WE HAVE INDEED
FOUND THAT A MAN (WOMAN) HAS A
SPOUSE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF
EDUCATION
IF THAT PERSON HAS A HIGHER LEVEL OF
EDUCATION
AND, INDEPENDENT OF THIS, IF THE
FATHER OF THIS PERSON HAS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
SEE DE GRAAF, SMEENK, ULTEE & TIMM, THE WHEN
AND WHOM OF FIRST MARRIAGE IN THE NETHERLANDS
IN (EDITORS) BLOSSFELD & TIMM, WHO MARRIES
WHOM?, 2003
THE FINDINGS WERE MADE BY COMBINING TWO
SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN THE NETHERLANDS, IN 1992
AND 1998
WARREN & HAUSER 1997 DID NOT FIND A
DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION
ON THE THIRD GENERATION FOR WISCONSIN,
USA
EROLA & MOISIO 2007 FOUND ALMOST NO
DIRECT OF GRANDPARENTS’ CLASS ON
CHILDREN’S CLASS FOR FINLAND 1950-2000
CHANG IN 2011 AT SPRING MEETING OF RC28
IN ESSEX
PRESENTED FINDINGS ON THE UNITED
KINGDOM SHOWING THAT
FIRST GENERATION CLASS HAS A DIRECT
EFFECT ON THIRD GENERATION CLASS, NET
OF SECOND GENERATION CLASS AND
EDUCATION
(IN SAMPLES OF SOME 2,000, 6,000 AND 4,000
THIRD GENERATION PERSONS)
AT THE SUMMER 2011 MEETING OF RC28 IN IOWA CITY,
USA
MARE PLEADED IN FAVOR OF THREE-GENERATION
QUESTIONS
MARE ACCEPTED THAT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY
DEVELOPED SOCIETIES
THE THIRD GENERATION HAS NO DIRECT EFFECT IN
THE BROAD MIDDLE OF THE SOCIAL SCALE,
BUT DOES HAVE EFFECTS AT THE TOP AND BOTTOM
THESE EFFECTS ARE INTERACTIONS, THE FIRST AND
SECOND GENERATION DO MORE IN COMBINATION
THAN EACH GENERATION DOES ON ITS OWN
MARE ALSO WANTS TO STUDY THE SIZE OF THE
EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE THIRD
GENERATION IN CHINA, BEFORE THE ADVENT OF
INDUSTRIALISM THE MOST DEVELOPED AGRARIAN
SOCIETY THE WORLD EVER KNEW
MY HYPOTHESIS HERE IS THAT IN THE
CONTEMPORARY NETHERLANDS,
BECAUSE OF THE GENERAL INCREASE
IN LONGEVITY,
THE TOTAL EFFECT OF FIRST
GENERATION EDUCATION ON THIRD
EDUCATION IS GROWING
OUR DATA PERTAIN TO THE
NETHERLANDS
AND WERE COLLECTED IN FIVE
SIMILAR SURVEYS CALLED THE
FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH
POPULATION
ABBREVIATED IN DUTCH FNB
IN SOUTH AFRICA THIS IS A BANK
YEARS OF SURVEY:
1992
1998
2000
2003
2009
IN EACH SURVEY YEAR ABOUT
1,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS
WERE INTERVIEWED
IF THEY WERE OFFICIALLY
MARRIED OR LIVING IN A
COMMON-LAW MARRIAGE,
THEIR PARTNERS WERE
INTERVIEWED TOO
IF A PARENT WAS STILL ALIVE,
THAT PARENT RECEIVED A MAIL
QUESTIONNAIRE
IF A CHILD WAS 25 YEARS OR
OLDER, THAT CHILD RECEIVED
A MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE
ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS (SECOND
GENERATION) WERE ASKED AFTER THE
EDUCATION OF THEIR FATHER AND MOTHER (FIRST
GENERATION)
THE PRESENT SPOUSE OF EACH PRIMARY
RESPONDENT WAS ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION
OF HER OR HIS FATHER AND MOTHER
ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED AFTER
THE EDUCATION OF ALL THE CHILDREN (THIRD
GENERATION) THEY HAVE WITH THEIR PRESENT
SPOUSE
IN THE MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE CHILDREN (THIRD
GENERATION) AND PARENTS (FIRST GENERATION)
WERE ASKED AFTER THEIR EDUCATION
SO, WE HAVE TWO MEASURES FOR THIRD
GENERATION AND FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION
WE WILL ASSUME IN LATER RESEARCH THAT
PROXY MEASURES ARE LESS ACCURATE THAN
FIRSTHAND MEASURES
WE WILL NOT ESTIMATE FIRSTHAND
STATISTICAL MODELS HERE
AT LEAST IN OUR FIRST SURVEY YEAR WE UNDERSTANDABLY - DID NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH
SECOND GENERATION CASES
WITH DOUBLE MEASURES FOR THE FIRST
GENERATION AND FOR THE THIRD GENERATION
FROM OUR FIVE SURVEYS, WITH SOME 5,000
PRIMARY RESPONDENTS
WE EXTRACTED 2,400 CHILDREN 25 YEARS OR
OLDER
SOMETIMES MORE THAN ONE CHILD PER PARENT,
(WE APPLIED A CLUSTER CORRECTION TO THE
STANDARD ERRORS)
FOR THESE PERSONS WE HAVE VALID SCORES FOR
OWN EDUCATION,
FATHER’S EDUCATION,
MOTHER’S EDUCATION,
EDUCATION OF FATHER’S FATHER,
EDUCATION OF FATHER’S MOTHER,
EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S FATHER, AND
EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S MOTHER
FIRST A TABULAR ANALYSIS
ON THE HANDOUT
2B, 2C EN 3
SEE
TABLES 2A,
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT
OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON
CHILD’S EDUCATION
WHEN HOLDING CONSTANT FOR
FATHER’S EDUCATION, FOR THOSE WITH A
HIGHLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS NO
EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION
ON CHILD’S EDUCATION
FOR THOSE WITH A LOWLY EDUCATED
FATHER, THERE IS A POSITIVE EFFECT OF
GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S
EDUCATION
SO, THERE IS AN INTERACTION EFFECT,
BUT NOT THE ONE PREDICTED BY MARE
THEN WE ESTIMATED LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS
WE RECODED LEVELS OF EDUCATION ACCORDING THE
NUMBER OF YEARS PEOPLE MINIMALLY STUDY FOR A
CREDENTIAL
WE PLAYED AROUND BY ESTIMATING TWELVE MODELS
SEE TABLE 4 IN THE HANDOUT
WHEN CONSIDERING ALL CHILDREN, THERE IS A EFFECT
OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S
EDUCATION
BUT IT BECOMES INDIRECT UPON THE INTRODUCTION
OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION
THIS FINDING REPEATS ITSELF FOR WOMEN,
BUT NOT FOR MEN
IN THE SEPERATE COHORTS NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS
ARE FOUND OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION NET OF
FATHER’S EDUCATION
FINALLY WE ESTIMATED LOGISTIC
REGRESSION MODELS WITH THE ODDS
OF TERTIARY CREDENTIALS VERSUS
LOWER CREDENTIALS AS THE
PHENOMENON TO BE PREDICTED
WE PLAYED ONCE MORE AROUND
WITH MODELS, AND TABLE 5 ONCE
MORE PRESENTS TWELVE OF THEM
FOR ALL THIRD GENERATION
PERSONS, THERE IS NO DIRECT
EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S
EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION,
THAT DIRECT EFFECT IS NOT THERE
EITHER FOR MALE CHILDREN OR
FEMALE CHILDREN SEPERATELY
WHEN CONSIDERING THE EARLIER
GENERATION, THERE IS AN INSIGNIFICANT
TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S
EDUCATION
IN THE LATER GENERATION THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S
FATHER’S EDUCATION
AND A DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S
FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S
EDUCATION
WHEN BRINGING IN MOTHER’S
EDUCATION, THE EFFECT OF FATHER’S
FATHER’S EDUCATION BECOMES ALMOST
FULLY INDIRECT
THIS TELLS ABOUT INDIRECT EFFECTS OF
FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION BY WAY
OF THE EDUCATION OF THE SECOND
GENERATION SPOUSE, AS ALLUDED TO
EARLIER
THIS PRESENTATION OBVIOUSLY IS A REPORT
ON WORK IN PROGRESS
WE WANT TO ESTIMATE RECURSIVE MODELS
WE HAVE TO DEVISE A BETTER TEST OF
CHANGES IN THE COURSE OF TIME BY
RECODING YEAR OF BIRTH
NOT INTO TWO CATEGORIES,
BUT BY TAKING IT IS A METRIC (PERHAPS
ACCORDING TO SOME MEASURE FOR LIFE
EXPECTANCY)
WE STILL HAVE TO APPLY CORRECTIONS BY
REPLACING PROXY MEASURES FOR THE FIRST
AND THIRD GENERATION BY FIRSTHAND
MEASURES (BUT WE DO NOT HAVE THEM FOR
EVERYONE IN OUR SAMPLE)
AS YET, I DO NOT FEEL
HOPELESS ABOUT MY
BOURDIEU HYPOTHESES
THIS POWERPOINT IS POSTED ON MY WEBSITE
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WOUT ULTEE
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THERE YOU WILL FIND THE POWERPOINT, THE
TABLES AND THE TEXT SO FAR