U.S. Politics
Public Opinion and Socialization
Overview
• Public Opinion: Definition
• Measuring Public Opinion
– Survey Design
– Scientific vs. “Unscientific” polls
– Variables to be measured
• Factors Shaping Public Opinion
• Importance of Public Opinion
Definition
Polling and Politics
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Economic Stimulus Package
Definition
• Public Opinion: Aggregate of individual
attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion
of the adult population
Measuring Public Opinion
• Need to add and combine these individual
opinions so that we can then determine what
the public as a whole believes
• Collect data in a scientifically rigorous
fashion
Survey Design
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Identify target population
Select Random Sample
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
Analyze Data
Survey Design
• Identify target population
– Who’s opinion are you interested in measuring?
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Select Random Sample
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
Analyze Data
Survey Design
• Identify target population
• Select Random Sample
– every person in the target population has an
equal and known probability of being included
in the survey
• Write Questions
• Conduct Poll
• Analyze Data
Survey Design
• Identify target population
• Select Random Sample
• Write Questions
– ensure that questions are fair, non-leading, and
clear
• Conduct Poll
• Analyze Data
Survey Design
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Identify target population
Select Random Sample
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
– contact those selected in the random sample
• Analyze Data
Survey Design
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Identify target population
Select Random Sample
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
Analyze Data
– Intepret what the numbers mean
Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls
• Key is in the random sample
– “random”: every person in the target
population has an equal and known probability
of being included in the survey
– Allows us to calculate the margin of error and
the confidence interval
Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls
• Margin of Error: How much the sample
reports differ from the total population
+/- 3.5% to about +/- 6%
45% with a 4% margin of error
41%
45%
49%
Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls
• Confidence Interval: How sure we are in
the results
.01 to .05
Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls
• Need to be able to determine how much
your sample differs from the total
population, and how sure you are in the
results
• If no random sample, no way to determine
that
Variables to Measure
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Intensity
Salience
Consensus
Divisiveness
Change
Strongly
Agree
Agree Disagree Strongly
Disagree
Variables to Measure
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Intensity
Salience
Consensus
Divisiveness
Change
Yes
No
Don’t
Know
Variables to Measure
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Intensity
Salience
Consensus
Divisiveness
Change
Agree
Disagree
Variables to Measure
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Intensity
Salience
Consensus
Divisiveness
Change
Yes
No
Variables to Measure
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Intensity
Salience
Consensus
Divisiveness
Change
t1
t2
t3 t4
t5
Factors Shaping Public Opinion
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Education
Media
Family
Race
Political Party
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Income
Religion
Current Events
Gender
Geography
Importance of Public Opinion
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Connection to Democracy
Shaping Public Policy
Informing political leaders
Controllinig political leaders