25th-26th February 2010, Wageningen
Global Conference on Agricultural Research for Developement (GCARD)
Second workshop of the Assessments/Projections/Foresights Seminar
Comments on the second
SCAR Foresight exercise
Egizio Valceschini
egizio.valceschini@paris.inra.fr
Directeur de recherche à l’INRA
French Representative at the Standing Committee on Agricultural Research
What is SCAR?
Standing Committee for Agricultural Research
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/agriculture/scar/index_en.cfm
•
In 1974 the Council of the EU established SCAR with the mandate to advise the
Commission and the Member States on the coordination of agricultural research in
Europe.
•
In 2004, transfer of SCAR from DG Agriculture to DG Research.
•
In 2005, SCAR was given a renewed mandate from the Council to give inputs to all
research areas of the Knowledge Based Bio Economy (KBBE) and to set up a
coherent European research agenda for agriculture.
•
SCAR is made up of the 27 EU MS, with delegates from Candidate Countries and
Associated Countries as observers.
•
The delegates are in charge of national public agricultural research programmes and
the group is chaired by the Director « Biotechnologies, Agriculture and Food » of the
European Commission DG Research.
SCAR initiatives towards a European
Research Area for Agriculture
2. COMMON
1. FORESIGHT
RESEARCH AGENDAS
PROCESS
3. MAPPING
EU CAPACITIES
Identify Scenarios
Foresight Conference
June 2007
Agreement on priority
research topics
Mapping
Activities
Mapping
Infrastructures
Collaborative
Working Groups
Regular Survey &
Alert Mechanism
Joint Programming
Report on gaps,
trends & needs
EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA FOR AGRICULTURE
Input to FP7
SP Theme 2 : FAB
ERA-Net
proposals
Identify priority
research needs
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Proposals of new, sharing
existing, infrastructures
EC report to EP and Council
end 2008
SCAR
WG
4. Communication
SCAR WEBSITE
Foresight process
4 scenarios
•
Climate Shock starts with climate change and the acceleration of
related environmental impacts as the driving disruption factor
•
Energy Crisis focuses on the energy supply vulnerability of
Europe as the key disruption factor and the acceleration of related
economic and societal impacts as the key drivers.
•
Food crisis focuses on food connected to health and society as a
source of disruption jointly determining a more community and
consumer-oriented research agenda
•
Cooperation with nature focuses on society and science and
technology as key joint drivers evolving in a beneficially symbiotic
relationship
COMMENTS BY THE SCAR-WG ON THE
2ND FORESIGHT REPORT
Comments can be designed in various ways in relation to
an analysis of such a width and complexity as the
current SCAR 2nd foresight report developed for and
commissioned by SCAR.
Six aspects (issues) have been selected by the SCAR
because they either provide an interesting approach,
they signal something new or they draw the attention to
the fact that things are changing faster than expected
three years ago (2006).
With this selection the SCAR wants to highlight in its own
reflection.
The 6 issues are:
• The complexity of the new challenges
• The earlier insufficient assessment of the speed
of climate change
• The vulnerability of the food system
• The interlinkages reflecting the demands on
paths towards sustainable development
In addition to these four items reflections on the
implications for
• The research and innovation needs
and
• The governance design
What will matter in 2030?
The challenge of scarcity
Three interlinked scarcity issues are converging and
reinforcing each other, all with security implications:
• climate change -> proceeding much faster than
expected
• energy security -> easily accessible oil & gas will not
match demand
• environmental degradation -> weakens resilience &
services of ecosystems
These scarcity issues are already starting to make
themselves felt today and are expected to become much
more significant by 2030.
• In the light of the new scarcities already visible
by now the consultants question whether “more
of the same technical fittings” (more fertilizer,
better seeds and irrigation) are the right
approach to lead to a sustainable development
path in the longer term.
• The consultants highlight the importance of
linking the broader approach of vulnerability with
the concepts of ecosystem services and
sustainable development.
• More research efforts are needed to understand
not only the functioning of ecosystems but also
their criticality. Such complex challenges need
complex approaches as well. These should
involve a broad range of disciplines also from
outside the traditional agricultural sector
• The SCAR acknowledges the value of the
proposed vulnerability concept which opens up a
wider resilience perspective beyond the “narrow”
view of food security.
• While it is clear that progress towards a more
sustainable development path is urgently
needed, it is less clear from the report how the
necessary productivity increases or efficiency
gains can be achieved without technological
breakthroughs or quantum leaps in innovation.
• The foresight questions whether the existing public
Agricultural Knowledge Systems (AKS) in Europe, which
has been under-funded for years, is well equipped and
prepared to deal effectively with these highly dynamic
changes demanding for solutions 20 years from now.
• An overriding SCAR comment is that the “increased
speed” of the climate induced challenges also drives the
need to transform the agricultural knowledge based
system faster than has earlier been perceived.
• The necessary adaptations/corrections in the AKS and
governance systems have to cope with faster change in
the future. Thus the system of knowledge generation
need to reform with quite some speed.
It seems important:
• To further explore the full range of possibilities to reduce
GHG emissions and to mitigate climate change effects
associated to “the agricultural sector”
• To understand not only the functioning of ecosystems but
also their criticality. The resilience of the combined bioand socio/economic systems is at the heart of the
challenges.
• This has strong implications for the knowledge that is
needed to be generated related to issues that pertain to
“agriculture” but which have a much wider base than a
“specific sector”. The systems approaches needed have
to be highlighted
Main Messages of 2nd Foresight
Policy agenda in next years will have to
concentrate on 4 important questions:
• How to mitigate & adapt to climate
change (urgent; role for agriculture)?
• How to ensure food & energy security
for 9 Billion by 2050?
• How to conserve global public goods?
• How to reduce vulnerability of social,
economic and ecological systems?
As a conclusion
• It is important to have a functioning
foresight monitoring and early warning
mechanism in place which is capable to
identify possible threats and likely
developments as well as opportunities not
only to alert but also to provide a better
evidence base for future research policy
orientation and research agenda setting.
Joining up the dots between
the three scarcity issues
• These scarcity issues are interlinked and not isolated
from each other!
• Any action in one area needs to take the other two into
account
• because of the many feedback loops between the three.
• All three scarcity issues have serious security
implications and potential for an escalating geopolitical
situation as well.
• There is an urgent need to get a much better
understanding of the key linkages and feedback loops of
these scarcity issues for agriculture and food security, for
energy security and for environmental sustainability! And
we need to achieve it fast!
Type of questions to be addressed by the Consultants
What does the accelerating climate change in combination with the
environmental degradation mean for agricultural production & food security?
Which are the most likely issues that may affect agricultural production and
food security?
Which specific research problems are linked to these?
How to prepare for these?
What are their possible implications for the agricultural knowledge systems?
Type of questions to be addressed by the Consultants
What does the expected scarcity of oil and gas in combination with the
environmental degradation mean for agricultural production & food security?
What are the the potential impacts of surging fuel prices on agricultural
production and food security?
What is necessary to make the food system more sustainable?
Which specific research problems have to be solved to avoid shocks and ease
the transition phase?
What are their possible implications for the agricultural knowledge systems?
2
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Scarcity issue: Climate Change
Remarkable challenge to meet Europe‘s goal to limit global warming to 2° C!
4th IPCC-Report projects serious climate impacts above 2° C for food
production, access to water, the environment and health.
Today temperature is almost 0.8° C above pre-industrial level affecting food
production and food security already now. Especially extreme weather events
are expected to increase yield variability making farming more risky,
especially in those regions which are already food insecure.
This situation is further exacerbated by water scarcity, environmental
degradation, the spread of diseases, increasing energy costs, all rising
uncertainties about global food security and geopolitical stability.
To meet the projected demand by 2030, cereal production will have to
increase by 50% and meat production by 85%. Added to this a rising biofuel
demand!
Scarcity issue: Energy
By 2030, the global energy needs will be over 50% higher than today.
While population has increased 6-fold between 1800 and today, economic
output increased about 70-fold resulting in a 35-increase in primary energy.
Several oil companies stated recently that supply constraints are likely to put
world oil markets under growing pressure that could push oil prices to hit 150 $
as early as 2010.
Agricultural food production systems and world food supply are heavily
dependent on fossil fuels throughout the entire production and value chain.
Higher oil prices will translate into higher food prices while at the same time
the growing world population is demanding more and different kinds of food.
In order to halt global warming a retreat from oil dependence is necessary.
Biofuels from biomass may be an alternative to fossil energy if they do not
come at the expense of cropland or clearing land.
Environmental scarcity
Over the past 50 years humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly than ever
in history with serious consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Global demand for water has tripled in the last 50 years.
Our ecological footprint now exceeds the world‘s ability to regenerate by 25%.
Some 20-30% of species are at risk of getting extinct after 2°C warming. In
tropical countries even moderate warming can reduce yields significantly
because many crops are already at their limit of heat tolerance.
Half a billion people live in countries short of water and by 2050 this will rise to
more than 4 billion. Many countries are already depending on food trade,
importing virtual water. The depletion of groundwater stocks from which over
99% of the world‘s fresh water comes, is of particular concern.
Global food demand is expected to rise by 50% until 2030 putting additional
stress on the environment and ecosystems services.