Decision Making: Not as Easy
as One Thinks
The Power and Problem of
Groups and Groupthink
09/25/14
The Art and Science of
Decision Making
May 8, 2014
Making Judgment Calls
The ultimate act of leadership
A leader’s most important
role in any organizations is
making good judgments.
p. 94
Noel Tichy & Warren Bennis
October, 2007
A twenty-year study of 400
decisions
“. . . half the
decisions made in
business and related
organizations fail”
(p. 3)
Not because of poor
planning, but rather poor
thinking!
2002
86-100 billion neurons
&
60-100 trillion
connections
For the average adult, the brain can
• read 300 wpm,
•listen to 450 wpm,
•speak up to 180 wpm
and instantaneously construct meaning and
generate insights from a string of symbols that
makes communication possible.
(Ley & Chang, 2008)
The mind is easily tricked . . .
The mind is easily tricked . . .
The mind is makes up things . . .
FAE
Fundamental
Attribution Error
While the brain can process information and make
inferences at tremendous rates, it has at least two
limitations when it comes to making decisions.
1.The brain is self-referencing. –
The brain relies on itself to make inferences and
judgments. As a result, biases, expectations,
experiences, and values knowingly and unknowingly
shape perceptions.
2. All knowledge is bounded. The brain is incapable of
omniscience.
As a result, we are stuck with
our own interpretation of the
data when making knowledge
claims and rendering decisions
Extensive research from
cognitive psychology
indicates humans are
inherently flawed and
biased information
processers.
(Avolio and Gardner, 2005, p. 317).
~50% saw the unexpected event.
(Simons and Chabris, 1999)
60 plus sources of
interference
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Failure to listen
Inattentional blindness / Bounded awareness
Overreliance on what is available
Overreliance on what is representative
Misleading anchors
Hindsight bias
Non-rational escalation of commitment
Be an expert on what is
shaping the inference.
Be more systematic in gathering
and evaluating relevant data
Assume alternative perspectives
Ask the why and why not – keeps
it ethical
Educate your instincts*
“Go with your gut.” “Follow
your intuition.” “Trust your
feelings, Luke.” We’ve all
heard the sayings. But do
your instincts make good
decisions?
It depends – some
guts are better
educated
*From Fortune Magazine, June 27, 2005 pg. 102
Think Twice: How the Gut's "Second Brain"
Influences Mood and Well-Being
The emerging and surprising view of how the enteric
nervous system in our bellies goes far beyond just
processing the food we eat
Feb 12, 2010|By Adam Hadhazy
Heart – 40,000 neurons
Gut – 100 million neurons
. . . . every a judgment requires a judgment call
on what type of judgment to make.
Social dynamics
influence individual
decisions and
behavior
We are not as
independent
thinkers as we think
we are!
A highly decorated public administrator
• supervised the deportation of
6,000,000 Jews to Nazi gas
chambers
I was doing my job!
The Influence of the Group
on Decision Making
09/25/14
Ethical Decision Making
4 Scenarios
4 to 5 minutes on each
November 13
Social Capital
A Pillar of Trust and High
Performance
September 19, 2014
Decision Making: Not as Easy
as One Thinks
The Power and Problem of
Groups and Groupthink
09/25/14
The Urn Game
• Review contents of two urns (pitchers).
o Urn W: Two white balls and one yellow ball
o Urn Y: Two yellow balls and one white ball
• Select an urn with a coin flip.
• Select two participants from each table.
• Participants see one ball from the urn and review the list
of previous guesses.
• Participants identify the color of the ball they selected
from the urn.
• Each participant guesses either Urn W or Urn Y.
Source: Professor David McAdams
Groupthink (Janis)
Defined: “A mode of thinking involving a
cohesive group in which the members’
striving for unanimity overrides their
motivation to appraise realistically
alternative courses of action.” (Viotti and
Kauppi)
Groupthink (Janis)
• Symptoms of Groupthink
o Type I: Overestimation of the group
• Illusion of invulnerability
• Belief in inherent morality of the group
o Type II: Close-mindedness
• Collective rationalization
• Stereotyped views of out-groups
Groupthink (Janis)
o Type III: Pressures towards uniformity
• Self-censorship
• Illusion of unanimity
• Direct pressure on dissenters
• Self-appointed ‘mindguards’
• Consequence: Low probability of success
Groupthink (Janis)
• Example: Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961
o Overview
o Symptoms
• Illusion of invulnerability
• Illusion of unanimity
“Our meetings took place in a curious atmosphere
of assumed consensus” (Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.)
Groupthink (Janis)
• Example: Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961
o Overview
o Symptoms
• Illusion of invulnerability
• Illusion of unanimity
• Self-censorship
“In the months after the Bay of Pigs I bitterly
reproached myself for having kept so silent during
those crucial discussions in the Cabinet Room,
though my feelings of guilt were tempered by the
knowledge that a course of objection would have
accomplished little save to gain me a name as a
nuisance. I can only explain my failure to do more
than raise a few timid questions by reporting that
one’s impulse to blow the whistle on this nonsense
was simply undone by the circumstances of the
discussion.” (Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.)
Groupthink (Janis)
• Example: Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961
o Overview
o Symptoms
• Illusion of invulnerability
• Illusion of unanimity
• Self-censorship
• Self-appointed ‘mindguards’
“You may be right or you may be wrong, but the
President has made his mind up. Don’t push him
any further. Now is the time for everyone to help
him all they can.” (Attorney General Robert
Kennedy)
Groupthink (Janis)
• Possible remedies
o Encourage discussion within the group
o Assign the role of “critical evaluator” to every member
o Avoid stating their preferences at the beginning of the process
o Invite one or more outside experts to each meeting
o Ask at least one member to play the role of devil’s advocate
Questions
Concerns
Comments
Objections
Thank You
jshoup@calbaptist.edu
Ethical Decision Making:
Deceiving Ourselves
Why Do Good People Do Bad
Things?
November 13