TERMS OF REFERENCE
Floods, droughts and pathways out of poverty in Bolivia
– a qualitative study –
The World Bank, January 2016
Background
Bolivia is one of the most vulnerable countries to the consequences of floods in the Andean region. Heavy rainfalls
leading to floods and landslides are the most common disaster in the country; between 2002 and 2008 these
represented 47 percent of all climate-related events in the country. A Municipal Risk Index, developed by the
Ministry of Development Planning (UDAPE) and the World Bank in 2012, shows that 43 percent of the population
lives in flood-prone areas. Empirical evidence on the impact of floods on the individual, family and community level
in Bolivia is limited and almost non-existent.
Floods have adverse effects on social and economic well-being. Not only may they affect the poorest in the most
severe ways, given their heightened vulnerability and lack of resilience, but they could also overturn progress
towards exiting poverty by destroying assets and reducing the ability of households to meet basic needs. The
literature shows that floods have negative effects on a household economy and welfare: they generate drops in
eating and living standards (damages to agriculture and cattle), damage infrastructure, lead to absenteeism at
school and facilitate the spreading of different diseases. Furthermore, the predictability of recurrent exposure to
floods may influence the aspirations of people and their sense of control over their lives. All these effects are
heightened by wide disparities between communities concerning adaptation capacity.
Droughts have the potential to affect the social and economic well-being of the poor and vulnerable population
the hardest. Droughts are especially damaging to regions where economic activities are highly dependent on water
resources, particularly those that rely on agriculture (including both subsistence and commercial). Droughts in
Bolivia are frequent, and they are usually associated with important yield reductions that lead to cumulative
shortages of food for humans and animals (Jansen et al., 2009; Garcia et al., 2007). Local communities consider
droughts to be the hydro-climatic hazard with highest impacts on sustenance in the region (Vidaurre de la Riva et
al., 2013). Furthermore, while glaciers play a critical role as buffers against seasonal precipitation variation by
providing a dry season base flow downstream, Andean inter-tropical glaciers will very likely disappear in the
coming decades due to global warming (IPCC, 2014). This will impact water availability and increase drought
exposure in some regions of the country, raising climate change vulnerability of poor rural households where dry
season rainfall is minimal.
By looking into their the experiences and attitudes, the objective of this study is to understand how households
exposed to droughts and floods in Bolivia make decisions, the context in which these decisions are made, and
other behavioral elements that could help identify, and better characterize, their coping mechanisms and
mitigation strategies. In particular, the aim is to study how these events affect the well-being of poor households
and gain insights on the influence exposure to such events may have on their capacity to moving out of poverty.
The specific questions guiding the qualitative work will include the following:
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How do floods and droughts impact different dimensions of wellbeing among the poor?
How does such impact vary between different groups of the population (depending on gender, location of
residence, level of education, economic activity, age, ethnicity, etc.)?
How do floods/droughts affect social dynamics and interactions among the poor?
How do floods/droughts affect access to services and opportunities among the poor?
What are different coping/mitigation strategies against floods/droughts by different groups among the
affected population?
Which resources/support are available to different groups?
What (if any) preventive measures are taken by different groups and what triggers them?
Which other decisions in life are affected by the perceived risk of floods/droughts?
How does constant exposure to floods/droughts impact aspirations, hope for the future and sense of
control over one’s life?
How does constant exposure to floods/droughts impact investments (economic, physical, in the future of
their children etc.)?
The study will include a gender perspective addressing the following questions:
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Are women (and also women headed households) disproportionately affected by these events?
Do men and women opt for different coping mechanisms?
Are these potentially different interests and needs represented in existing policies?
Objectives of the Consultancy
Conducting a literature review on qualitative studies in Bolivia, Latin America and globally that have analyzed the
attitudes, experiences and behaviors towards flood and drought exposure at the community, household and
individual levels.
The dimensions particularly of interest are:
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The impacts of floods and droughts on different wellbeing dimensions of the poor.
The impacts of floods and droughts on households’ capacity to move out of poverty.
The coping strategies and adaptation mechanisms related to floods and droughts implemented by
poor households.
Specific Tasks and Responsibilities are as follows:
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Finalize the list of relevant papers to be included in the review
After approval of the literature list by the WB team, review each paper and include relevant information
into an excel matrix (prepared by the WB team prior to the start of the consultancy)
Summarize the main findings from the review of the literature in a short note (5 pgs.)
Discuss findings with WB team involved in the study
Outputs and Expected Products of the Consultancy
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Literature list of relevant qualitative research to be reviewed for this study
Excel matrix with different dimensions to be analyzed for each paper
Summary note of findings (5 pgs.)
Selection Criteria
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Master’s in public policy, sociology, political science or other related disciplines.
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A minimum of five years of relevant experience in international development projects, including relevant
World Bank experience.
Outstanding writing and editing skills in English, particularly report writing for international organizations
Prior experience in conducting literature reviews and presenting main findings in a clear and succinct way
Proven experience in conducting qualitative research
Experience working on gender issues preferred.
Reporting
The consultant will report to Miriam Muller (Social Scientist, GPVDR), Maria Eugenia Genoni (Economist, GPVDR)
and Oscar A. Ishizawa (Senior DRM Specialist, GSURR).
Duration and cost of the consultancy
The assignment will be undertaken starting in February 2016 and ending March 10, 2016; and will involve a
maximum of 8 working.
If interested, please send CV and at least one writing sample by Monday, Feb 15th .Contact: Miriam Muller:
mmuller1@worldbank.org
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