Do Developed or Developing
Countries Emit More Carbon
Dioxide Into the Atmosphere?
A Data Management Culminating
Project Presentation
by Mathew Hall, Dr. G.W. Williams S.S.
Aurora, Ontario
Thesis Statement
As the indicating factors of a country’s
development increase, that country will emit
more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
because of increased motor vehicle
transportation, energy consumption, and
urbanization.
Background Information
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2)
• Carbon dioxide is an essential gas in the Earth’s Atmosphere
• It is classified as a “greenhouse gas”
• Greenhouse gasses trap the suns radiation in the atmosphere, maintaining the
•
temperature of the Earth
Carbon dioxide is second to water vapor as the leading greenhouse gas in the
•
•
atmosphere (Greenhouse Gas 2005)
Carbon dioxide levels have risen by 31% since 1895 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004)
One tonne of carbon burned  3.7 tonnes of CO2 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004)
• 22 billion tonnes of fossil fuels are burned each year (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004)
Climate Change
• 20th Century has had the warmest global temperature in 1000 years (The Greenhouse
Gasses)
• Increased temperatures cause: polar ice caps melting, increased sea level, animal
habitats being destroyed, erosion of island shores, drought, and more common heat
waves (Understanding Climate Change 2004)
• General scientific consensus is that increased levels of CO2 are the cause of the
Increase in global temperatures (Understanding Climate Change 2004)
• Carbon dioxide has not been proven to be the cause, this is only an accepted theory
(Understanding Climate Change 2004)
Developed vs. Developing Countries
• No real scale to judge development
• World Bank states that a country with GDP per capita of
•
•
under $6000 US is developing (developmentcategorizing countries 2005)
United Nations uses different indicators such as: life
expectancy, literacy rate, enrolment in schools, urban
population levels and GDP per capita (developmentcategorizing countries 2005)
In General:
Developed Countries  - higher GDP
- more urban population
Analysis
Causes of CO2 Emissions
Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Sources of CO2 emissions
• Fuel combustion
Fugitive Emissions
from Fuels
Industrial Processes
Solvent and Other
Product Use
Agriculture
96%
Land-Use Change &
Forestry
Waste
Fuel combustion and co2 emission data 2000
Scatter Plot
6000000
5000000
co2emissions
accounts for the
greatest
proportion of CO2
emissions
• There is an
extremely strong
linear correlation
between total
fuel emissions
and CO2
emissions
Fuel Combustion
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
0
1000000
2000000
3000000 4000000
totalfuelemissions
co2emissions = 1.01totalfuelemissions + 3300; r^2 = 1.00
5000000
6000000
Percentage of Total Fuel Combustion CO2 Emissions by Sector
1%
14%
Sources of CO2 emissions
Energy Industries
39%
Fuel Combustion
Fugitive Emissions
from Fuels
Industrial Processes
Solvent and Other
Product Use
Agriculture
Manufacturing Industries
and Construction
Transport
Other Sectors
27%
Land-Use Change &
Forestry
Waste
Other
19%
• The two greatest contributors to fuel combustion
CO2 emissions are transportation and energy
industries
Transportation
CO2 Emissions (thousands of
metric tonnes)
Gasoline Consumption vs. CO2 Emissions
7000000
y = 13.12x + 76278
6000000
2
R = 0.7744
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
Gasoline Consumption (millions of liters)
• Fairly strong correlation between gasoline consumption and CO2
emissions
• Inference: Countries that consume more gasoline will emit more
CO2
Units : Millions of Liters of Gas
Motor Gasoline Consumption-Developed Countries
Histogram
Motor Gasoline Consumption- Developing Countries
100
60
50
Count
80
Count
Histogram
60
40
30
40
20
20
10
100000
200000
300000
400000
millionsoflitersgasconsumption
mean ( millionsoflitersgasconsumption ) = 14698.5
median (millionsoflitersgasconsumption ) = 2067.4
500000
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
millionsoflitersgasconsumption
mean (millionsoflitersgasconsumption ) = 3142.57
median (millionsoflitersgasconsumption ) = 585.75
• Developed countries consume more gasoline, on
•
•
average, than developing countries
Developed countries consume 2.5 times more gasoline
Thesis is supported
Energy Industries
Total CO2 Emissions vs. Total Energy Consumption
Total CO2 Emissions (thousands of
Metric Tonnes)
7000000
6000000
y = 2562.1x - 23378
R2 = 0.9883
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Total Energy Consum ption (tonnes of oil equivalent)
• Very strong positive correlation between CO2 emissions and total
energy consumption
• 99% of the variation in CO2 emissions result from variations in
energy consumption
• Inference: Countries that consume more energy will emit more CO2
Energy Consumption
Units: Thousand metric tonnes of oil equivalent
Developed no outliers
Histogram
Developing no outliers
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
Count
Count
Histogram
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
200000
400000
600000
energyconsumption
mean (energyconsumption ) = 69867.9
median ( energyconsumption ) = 24471.5
σ :Developed Countries – 123896
800000
0
40000
80000
120000 160000
energyconsumption
mean (energyconsumption ) = 27951.2
median (energyconsumption ) = 10253
200000
Developing Countries - 41783
• Developed countries consume twice as much energy as
developing countries on average
• Developed countries are relatively inconsistent in total
energy consumption
• Thesis is supported
Analysis
Urbanization and CO2 Emissions
• Urban population has a
Gasoline Consumption (millions
of liters)
Total Urban Population vs. Gasoline Consumption
60000
50000
40000
•
30000
20000
y = 0.9038x + 2533.8
R2 = 0.5722
10000
0
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Total Urban Population (thousands of people)
Total Energy Consumption vs. Total Urban Population
•
Total Energy Consumption
(tonnes of oil equivalent)
2500
2000
y = 0.0185x - 121.46
R2 = 0.8741
1500
•
1000
500
0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000 100000 120000 140000
Total Urban Population (thousands)
weak positive
correlation with
gasoline consumption
Inference: Countries
with more urban
populations don’t
necessarily consume
more gasoline
Urban population has a
strong correlation with
energy consumption
Inference: Countries
with more urban
population will
consume more energy
Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs. Total Urban
Population
Total Carbon Dioxide
Emissions (thousand metric
tonnes)
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
y = 8.7483x + 302754
600000
R = 0.3415
2
400000
200000
0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000 120000 140000
Total Urban Population (thousands of people)
• Urban population has a very weak correlation with CO2 emissions
• Inference: Having more of an urban population will not result in
more CO2 emissions
Energy Consumption
R2=0.99
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Strong
R2=0.87
Strong
R2=0.34
WEAK
Urban Population
Developed country's urban population
Histogram
Developing Country's urban population
50
160
140
40
120
Count
Count
Histogram
30
20
100
80
60
40
10
20
0
50000
100000 150000 200000
urbanpopulation
mean ( urbanpopulation ) = 15484.3
median (urbanpopulation ) = 4123
IQR: Developed Countries – 8387
250000
300000
0
100000
200000
300000
urbanpopulation
mean (urbanpopulation ) = 12089
median (urbanpopulation ) = 1687.5
Developing Countries - 5816
• Developed Countries have greater urban population
•
•
values than developing ones
Developing countries have more consistency in urban
population values
Thesis is not supported as urban population has little
impact on CO2 emissions
400000
Analysis
Overall Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Total CO2 Emissions
Units: thousand metric tonnes
Histogram
developed countries
50
Histogram
World CO2 emissions
180
40
Count
160
140
Count
120
30
20
100
10
80
60
1000000
2000000
40
3000000
4000000
co2emissions
5000000
6000000
mean (co2emissions ) = 276973
median ( co2emissions ) = 51321
20
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
CO2emissions
5000000
IQR - 159925
6000000
mean ( CO2emissions ) = 129128
median (CO2emissions ) = 8862
Histogram
developing countries
140
120
• Developing countries are more consistent in
CO2 emission values
•Thesis is supported
100
Count
• Developed countries’ CO2 emissions are higher
than the world median, developing countries’
emissions are lower than the median
80
60
40
20
1000000
2000000
co2emissions
mean (co2emissions ) = 70297.2
median (co2emissions ) = 3649
IQR - 29278
3000000
Units: Metric tonnes of CO2 per person
Histogram
12
120
10
100
8
80
6
60
4
40
2
20
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CO2percapita
16
mean (co2percapita ) = 7.52774
median (co2percapita ) = 7.48
IQR: Developed Countries – 5.26
18
20
Histogram
developing co2per capita
Count
Count
Developed co2 per capita
22
10
20
30
40
co2percapita
mean ( co2percapita ) = 3.16147
median (co2percapita ) = 1.03
Developing Countries – 2.69
• Developed Countries emit more CO2 per capita on
•
•
50
average; approximately 700% more per person
Developed countries are more inconsistent in CO2 per
capita, and it’s distribution is more “balanced”
Thesis is ultimately supported
60
Developed vs. Developing Countries’ CO2
Emissions From 1950 to 2000
Developed vs. Developing Countries Total CO2 Emissions
developed countries
developing countries
Total CO2 Emissions (thousands of
metric tonnes)
30000000
25000000
20000000
4005973
15000000
4884052
6283263
8079069
9268499
2898051
2259419
1477403
10000000
1488946
5000000
410954
701102
5377722
6554339
7661706
1950
1955
1960
9584937
14620761 14484808 14985819 14129761 14679545
12017244 13247248
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
• Developed countries have had a greater proportion of
total CO2 emissions since 1950
• The proportion of developed countries’ CO2 emissions
has been decreasing over time since 1950
• Thesis is tentatively supported
Analysis
GDP and CO2 Emissions
Examples of Developing Countries
Mexican Total GDP and Total CO2 Emissions
From 1950 to 1992
Mexican CO2 Emissions vs. GDP in Millions of
US Dollars
Value
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
0
CO2 Emissions (thousands
of metric tonnes)
600,000
400000
350000
y = 0.681x - 20755
R2 = 0.9823
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Year
0
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
GDP (m illions of US dollars)
GDP (millions of US dollars)
CO2 Emissions (thousands of metric tonnes)
Year
Peru Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs. GDP
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
(thousand metric tonnes)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
Value
Peru Carbon Dioxide Emissions and GDP from
1950 to1992
30000
25000
y = 0.4304x - 448.97
20000
R2 = 0.9696
15000
10000
5000
0
0
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
GDP (millions of US dollars)
GDP (millions of US dollars)
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (thousand metric tonnes)
• GDP is increasing over time, CO2 emissions mirror that increase
•Very strong correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions
•Inference: In developing countries, increases in GDP will parallel increases in CO2 emissions
•Thesis is supported
Examples of Developed Countries
Germany CO2 Emissions vs. GDP
Germany CO2 Emissions and GDP from 1971 to
2000
1200000
CO2 Emissions (thousands of
metric tonnes)
3000000
2500000
Value
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
19
98
19
95
19
92
19
89
19
86
19
83
19
80
19
77
19
74
19
71
0
1000000
800000
R2 = 0.7183
600000
400000
200000
0
Year
0
GDP (millions of US dollars)
500000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
0
0
0
0
0
GDP (m illions of US dollars)
CO2 Emissions (thousands of metric tonnes)
France CO2 Emissions vs. GDP
Value
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
Year
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
100,000
0
CO2 Emissions (thousands of metric
tonnes)
France GDP and CO2 Emissions from 1950-1992
600000
500000
400000
300000
y = 0.3188x + 215434
200000
R 2 = 0.5227
100000
0
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
GDP (in millions of US dollars)
CO2 Emissions (thousands metric tonnes)
GDP (millions of US dollars)
•GDP is increasing over time, CO2 emissions do not mirror that increase
•Much weaker correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions
•Inference: In developed countries, increases in GDP do not parallel increases in CO2
emissions
•Thesis is not supported
1,000,00
0
What Are Some Possible Answers for
the Trends in Developed Countries’ CO2
Emissions?
• Increased use of “clean” fuels in developed
•
•
•
countries
France is a world leader in the use of nuclear
power, use less and less fossil fuels each year
(Earthtrends 2005)
Germany demolished soviet power plants which
produced enormous amounts of CO2 (O’Ronian
2005)
Kyoto protocol signed in 1997 (Kyoto Protocol
2005)
Conclusions
• Gasoline consumption and energy consumption have strong
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
correlations with CO2 emissions
Developed countries consume more gasoline and energy than
developing countries, on average
Although urban population levels have a strong correlation with
energy industries, it has a weak correlation with CO2 emissions
The fact that developed countries have greater urban population
levels does not have any effect on CO2 emission levels
Developed countries emit more total CO2 and CO2 per capita than
developing countries
The proportion of CO2 emissions developed countries are accounting
for is decreasing over time
Developing countries have strong correlations between GDP and
CO2 emissions
Developed countries have weak correlations between GDP and CO2
emissions
In many developed countries GDP increases while CO2 emissions
stay the same or decline, developing countries have increases in
both variables
Final Thoughts
• Developed countries are the focus for
reducing CO2 emissions
• Presently, this is an effective course of
action- developed countries emit more
total CO2
• In the future more attention must be paid
to developing countries, as they may
come to surpass developed countries if
trends continue
Works Cited
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•
•
•
•
•
•
<http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/development/developm
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Earthtrends Energy and Resources- France. 22 December 2005.
<http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_250.pdf>
Greenhouse Gas. 7 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia. 14
Dec. 2005 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas>.
O'Ronain, Miceal. The German Kyoto Protocol Hoax. 17 December 2005. 20
Dec. 2005
<http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/german_kyoto_protocol_hoax.htm>.
The Greenhouse Gasses. 23 August 2004. Government of Canada. 14 Dec.
2005
<http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/greenhouse.asp
>.
Understanding Climate Change. 23 August 2004. Government of Canada.
14 Dec. 2005
<http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/understanding.a
sp>.
Kyoto Protocol. 21 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol>
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• E-Stat. Statistics Canada. 22 Dec. 2005
•
•
•
•
•
<http://estat.statcan.ca/Estat/data.htm>.
Statistical Review of World Energy 2005. 14 June 2005. BP. 22 Dec. 2005
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- (*Please note: the link above is the website where the actual document
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<http://www.unhabitat.org/programmes/guo/default.asp>
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