PPA 691 – Seminar in Public
Policy Analysis
Lecture 1b – Introduction to the
Public Policy Process
Policy Analysis in the PolicyMaking Process
 Policy analysis is the activity of creating
knowledge of and in the policy-making process.
 In creating knowledge of policy-making processes
policy analysts investigate the causes,
consequences, and performance of public policies
and programs.
 Such knowledge remains incomplete, however,
unless it is made available to policymakers and the
public they are obligated to serve.
The Process of Policy Inquiry
 This course provides a methodology for policy
analysis.
– Methodology is a system of standards, rules and
procedures for creating, critically assessing, and
communicating policy-relevant knowledge.
 Problem solving is a key element of the
methodology of policy analysis
 Policy analysis is also a methodology for
formulating problems as a part of a search for
solutions.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis
 The methodology of policy analysis draws
from and integrates elements of multiple
disciplines
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–
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–
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Political science
Sociology
Psychology
Economics
Philosophy
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 Policy analysis is partly descriptive, seeking
knowledge about causes and consequences
of public policies.
 But, policy analysis is also normative,
creating and critiquing knowledge claims
about the value of public policies for past,
present,and future generations.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 Policy-relevant knowledge involves choosing
among competing values such as health, wealth,
security, peace, justice, equality, and freedom.
– To choose among competing values is not a technical
judgment, but a moral judgment. Thus, policy analysis
is a form of applied ethics.
 Policy analysis also seeks to create knowledge that
improves the efficiency of choices among
alternative policies.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 The methodology of policy analysis aims at
creating, critically assessing, and
communicating policy-relevant knowledge.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 Knowledge in this context refers to
plausibly true beliefs, as distinguished from
beliefs that are certainly true, or even true
with a particular statistical probability
– Statistical evidence performs only a
supplementary or reinforcing role.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 In short, policy analysis has developed a
core of moderately coherent underlying
theories, a variety of methods that enjoy
reasonably broad assent among
practitioners, a tradition of criticism
directed at political, ideological, and ethical
issues raised by policy analysis, and
systematic as well as anecdotal evidence of
having improved the capacities of clients to
solve problems.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 A key feature of research and analysis on
social problems over the past 40 or more
years is the growing recognition of
complexity.
– The methodological core of policy analysis can
be broadly characterized as a form of critical
multiplism.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 For critical multiplism, inductive
plausibility, not certainty, is the defining
characteristic of knowledge and a major
standard of success in policy inquiry.
– The analyst does not enumerate supporting or
confirming cases but identifies, evaluates, and
eliminates competing explanations.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 The other major standard is policy
relevance.
– Knowledge that assists in formulating and
solving problems, as these problems are
experienced by policymakers and citizens on
whom the policies have an impact, including
the disenfranchised.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 General guidelines for policy inquiry under critical
multiplism.
– Multiple operationalism.
• The use of multiple measures of policy constructs.
– Multimethod research.
• The use of multiple methods to observe policy processes and
outcomes.
– Multiple analytic synthesis.
• The synthesis and critical assessment of available analyses of
similar policies and programs.
– Multivariate analysis.
• The inclusion of multiple variables in policy models.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 General guidelines for policy inquiry under critical
multiplism (contd.)
– Multiple stakeholder analysis.
• The investigation of interpretive frameworks and perspectives
of multiple policy stakeholders.
– Multiple perspective analysis.
• The incorporation into policy analysis of multiple perspectives
– ethical, political, organizational, economic, social, cultural,
psychological, and technical.
– Multimedia communications.
• The use by policy analysts of multiple communications media
is essential for ensuring that knowledge is policy relevant.
The Methodology of Policy
Analysis (contd.)
 Given typical time and financial constraints,
it is usually impossible to observe all of
these guidelines.
 In addition, depending on the stage of the
policy process being analyzed, several
guidelines may not be relevant.
 Multiple methods makes analysts less likely
to commit errors resulting from limited
perspectives.
Policy-Relevant Information
 The methodology of policy analysis designed to
answer five questions:
– What is the nature of the problem?
• Policy problems.
– What present and past policies have been established to
address the problem, and what are their outcomes?
• Policy outcomes.
– How valuable are these outcomes in solving the
problem?
• Policy performance.
Policy-Relevant Information
 The methodology of policy analysis
designed to answer five questions:
– What policy alternatives are available to
address the problem, and what are their likely
future outcomes?
• Policy futures.
– What alternatives should be acted on to solve
the problems?
• Policy actions.
Five types of policy relevant
information.
POLICY
PERFORMANCE
POLICY
OUTCOMES
POLICY
PROBLEMS
POLICY
ACTIONS
POLICY
FUTURES
Policy-Analytic Procedures
 Methodology of policy analysis incorporates
standards, rules, and procedures.
– The standards and rules govern the selection of
procedures and the interpretation of results.
 The five procedures common to all human
problem solving:
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Definition
Prediction
Prescription
Description
Evaluation
Policy-Analytic Procedures
 Five procedures as applied to policy analysis:
– Problem structuring (definition)
• Yields information about the conditions giving rise to a policy
problem.
– Forecasting (prediction)
• Supplies information about future consequences of acting on
policy alternatives, including doing nothing.
– Recommendation (prescription)
• Provides information about the relative value or worth of these
future consequences in solving or alleviating the problem.
Policy-Analytic Procedures
– Monitoring (description)
• Yields information about the present or past
consequences of acting on policy alternatives.
– Evaluation (evaluation)
• Provides information about the value or worth of
these consequences in solving or alleviating the
problem.
Policy-Analytic Procedures
 The five procedures serve as the means of
organizing particular methods and techniques of
analysis.
– Methods are general procedures for producing and
transforming policy relevant information.
– Each of the methods is supported by several techniques.
 The complete framework for problem-centered
policy analysis combines policy-relevant
information transformed by policy analytic
procedures.
Five policy-analytic procedures
Forecasting
Evaluation
Problem
Structuring
Problem
Structuring
Problem
Structuring
Problem
Structuring
Monitoring
Recommendation
Problem-centered policy analysis
POLICY
PERFORMANCE
Forecasting
Evaluation
Problem
Structuring
POLICY
OUTCOMES
POLICY
PROBLEMS
Problem
Structuring
Problem
Structuring
POLICY
FUTURES
Problem
Structuring
Monitoring
Recommendation
POLICY
ACTIONS
Phases of the policy-making
process
PHASE
CHARACTERISTICS
ILLUSTRATION
AGENDA SETTING
Elected and appointed officials place
problems on the public agenda. Many
problems are not acted on at all, while
others are addressed only after long
delays.
A state legislator and her cosponsor
prepare a bill that goes to the Health and
Welfare Committee for study and
approval. The bill stays in committee and
is not voted on.
POLICY
FORMULATION
Officials formulate alternative policies to
deal with a problem. Alternative policies
assume the form of executive orders, court
decisions, and legislative acts.
A state court considers the use of
standardized achievement tests such as the
SAT on grounds that the tests are biased
against women and minorities.
POLICY ADOPTION
A policy alternative is adopted with the
support of a legislative majority,
consensus among agency directors, or a
court decision.
In Roe v. Wade Supreme Court justices
reach a majority decision that women have
the right to terminate pregnancies through
abortion.
POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
An adopted policy is carried out by
administrative units which mobilize
financial and human resources to comply
with the policy.
The city treasurer hires additional staff to
ensure compliance with a new law which
imposes taxes on hospitals that no longer
have tax-exempt status.
POLICY
ASSESSMENT
Auditing and accounting units in
government determine whether executive
agencies, legislatures, and courts are in
compliance with statutory requirements of
a policy and achieving its objectives.
The General Accounting Office monitors
social welfare programs such as
Temporary Assistance to Needy Families
(TANF) to determine the scope of welfare
fraud.
Policy analytic procedures and
phases of policy-making
Problem
Structuring
Forecasting
Recommendation
AGENDA SETTING
POLICY
FORMULATION
POLICY ADOPTION
Monitoring
POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
Evaluation
POLICY
ASSESSMENT
Problem Structuring
 Problem structuring can supply policy-relevant
knowledge that challenges the assumptions
underlying the definition of problems reaching the
policy-making process through agenda-setting.
 Problem structuring can assist in discovering
hidden assumptions, diagnosing causes, mapping
possible objectives, synthesizing conflicting
views, and designing new policy options.
Forecasting
 Forecasting can provide policy-relevant knowledge
about future states of affairs which are likely to occur
as a consequence of adopting alternatives, including
doing nothing, that are under consideration at the
phase of policy formulation.
 Forecasting can examine plausible, potential, and
normatively valued futures, estimate the consequences
of existing and proposed policies, specify probable
future constraints on the achievement of objectives,
and estimate the political feasibility (support and
opposition) of different options.
Recommendation
 Recommendation yields policy-relevant
knowledge about the benefits and costs of
alternatives the future consequences of which have
been estimated through forecasting, thus aiding
policymakers in the policy adoption phase.
 Recommendation helps estimate levels of risk and
uncertainty, identify externalities and spillovers,
specify criteria for making choices, and assign
administrative responsibility for implementing
policies.
Monitoring
 Monitoring provides policy-relevant knowledge
about the consequences of previously adopted
policies, thus assisting policy-makers in the policy
implementation phase.
 Monitoring helps assess the degree of compliance,
discover unintended consequences of policies and
programs, identify implementational obstacles and
constraints, and locate sources of responsibility for
departures from policies.
Evaluation
 Evaluation yields policy-relevant knowledge about
discrepancies between expected and actual policy
performance, thus assisting policymakers in the
policy assessment phase of the policy-making
process. Evaluation not only results in
conclusions about the extent to which problems
have been alleviated; it also may contribute to the
clarification and critique of values driving a
policy, aid in the adjustment or reformulation of
policies, and establish a basis for restructuring
problems.