DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING
DISASTER RESILIENT
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
A FOCUS ON
WHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED
FROM DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIOS
NOTE: THE TECHNIQUE WAS EXPLAINED
LAST LECTURE
EXAMPLES:
SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES
IN CALIFORNIA, MIDAMERICA, AND TOKAI
AREA, JAPAN
NOTE: HAZARD MAPS
ARE BASED ON A
PROBABILISTIC MODEL
NOTE: RISK MODELING
IS
BASED ON HAZUS-MH
(OR A COMPARABLE MODEL)
MID-AMERICA GROUND
SHAKING HAZARD MAP
PURPOSE:
Information
from disaster
scenarios will facilitate the
adoption and implementation
of policies and plans to
enable a city to protect
essential facilities and
critical infrastructure
RISK ASSESSMENT
•EARTHQUAKES
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
CITY
FOUR PILLARS OF
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY IENCE
DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S)
PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT …
UN—PREPARED
FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL GOAL:
FROM UN—PREPARED
TO
A STATE OF
PREPAREDNESS
FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL
NATURAL HAZARDS
DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE
POLICY BREAKTHROUGHS
• With a disaster scenario, a city’s
leaders can make the decisions on
what it will do to control and reduce its
perceived risks (e.g., by adopting and
implementing policies such as building
codes, and lifeline standards to
protect, and retrofit and rehabilitation
to protect and sustain).
DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE
POLICY BREAKTHROUGHS
• Much of the UNCERTAINTY in future
emergency response and recovery
phases will be eliminated if we can
make the VIRTUAL REALITY of an
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO look like
REALITY that we are prepared to
cope with.
EXAMPLE ONE:
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO FOR
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
(SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO
• WHERE WILL THE
EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• HOW DEEP? WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT
CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN
THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR
Source: US Geological Survey
California Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
•Major impact to large
metropolitan areas
•Consequences would eclipse
Katrina
•Large area of impact - 155,959
Sq. Miles
•Highly populated areas - 36M+
•Significant earthquake risk
throughout State
18
California Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
•Tsunami risk
•Mass Evacuation
•Significant infrastructure
impacts
•Response problems due to
roadway collapse/blockage
•Estimated loss -- > $400B
19
• Because of its location in the
densely populated Bay area of
7 million people, an
earthquake on the Hayward
fault is likely to be one of the
nation's biggest natural
disasters.
• A Hayward fault earthquake
potentially affects 5 million
people, and damages homes,
schools, senior centers,
hospitals, businesses, the Bay
bridge, and the campus of UC
Berkeley.
• A M 7.0 earthquake on the
Hayward fault will cause an
estimated $210 billion dollars in
damage.
• The region's transportation
infrastructure and water delivery
systems will take a major hit.
EXAMPLE TWO:
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO FOR
LOS ANGELES AREA
(LAS ANGELES AREA): EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO
• WHERE WILL THE
EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• HOW DEEP? WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to
identify the physical, social and
economic consequences of a major
earthquake in southern California , and
in so doing, enable end users to identify
what they can change now—before the
earthquake—in order to avoid
catastrophic impacts after the inevitable
earthquake occurs.
• The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut
earthquake causes about 1,800
deaths and $213 billion of
economic losses.
• The estimates of about 1800
deaths and $213 billion of
economic losses indicate that
much more retrofitting is still
needed to protect and sustain.
EXAMPLE THREE:
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO FOR
MEMPHIS, TN AREA
(MEMPHIS, TN AREA): EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO
• WHERE WILL THE
EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• HOW DEEP? WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
SCENARIO
JUNE 2010 AND MARCH 2008
ASSUMPTIONS: M7.7
2:00 AM
http://mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.ht
ml
The New Madrid Seismic Zone, which
covers parts of eight states: Alabama,
Mississippi, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana,
Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee,
was the source of four great
earthquakes (M8.0 to 8.8) in 1811-
1812.

Damage and loss
estimates and the planning
assumptions are
predicated on the
occurrence of a magnitude
7.7 earthquake at 2:00 am.
 The epicenter is assumed to
be located approximately 33
miles North North-West of
Memphis, TN.
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic
Disaster Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million
people at high risk
•Consequences
eclipse Katrina
• impact area 126,575 Sq Miles
•44M people in
eight-State region
•Multiple
jurisdictions and
Governors
IL
St. Louis
1.5-2 Million
IN
MO
KY
TN
AR
MS
AL
Rural Pop.
8-9 million
160–200 Cities
Memphis
1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
38
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic
Disaster Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million
people at high risk
•Significant loss of
infrastructure
•Response problems
hindered by long
aftershock sequence
•Estimated loss -$300B+
•Severe weather &
evacuation issues
IL
St. Louis
1.5-2 Million
IN
MO
KY
TN
AR
MS
AL
Rural Pop.
8-9 million
160–200 Cities
Memphis
1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
39
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic
Disaster Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million
people at high risk
•Nearly 86,000 total
casualties
•3,500 fatalities
•Estimated loss -$300B+
IL
St. Louis
1.5-2 Million
IN
MO
KY
TN
AR
MS
AL
Rural Pop.
8-9 million
160–200 Cities
Memphis
1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
40
715,000 buildings will sustain
heavy damage , and 100,000
will be completely destroyed
from strong ground shaking.
Utilities will be interrupted,
leaving 2.5 MILLION without
power, and water, gas, and
waste disposal outages will
occur over a wide area.
Transportation systems
(highways, bridges,
airports, river traffic)
throughout the region
will lose their function.
The State of Tennessee will
incur the highest level of
damage and social impacts,
with over 250,000 buildings
moderately or severely
damaged.
Over 260,000 people will
likely be displaced and
over 80,000 casualties
(injuries and fatalities) are
expected.
Total direct economic
losses surpass $56
billion.
EXAMPLE FOUR:
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO FOR
TOKYO, JAPAN AREA
(TOKYO, JAPAN AREA): EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO
• WHERE WILL THE
EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• HOW DEEP? WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO
TOKAI, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ZONE
160 KM FROM TOKYO
PREPARING FOR AN EMINENT
DISASTER
REGIONAL MAP
LOCATION OF TOKAI
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
TECTONICS
• The section along Tokai,
which has a recurrence
interval of 100-150 years
for large- magnitude
earthquakes, has not
ruptured since 1854.
LOSSES: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
• Estimated deaths — between
7,900 and 9,200 depending on
the amount of advance warning
people have, the time of day
when it occurs, and the tsunami.
• Property damage ---as much as
$310 billion.
IMPACTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
• Landslides -- 6,449 specific
locations
• Structures susceptible to
quake-related fires – 58,402
specific houses
TODAY’S POLICY: PREPARE FOR
THE TOKAI EARTHQUAKE NOW
• The precise area along the
Pacific coast-- about 160 km (100
mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is
expected to be affected has been
delineated by scientific studies,
and is, by law, the focus of
intensive preparations to
become earthquake resilient..
POLICY: PROVIDE ADVANCE
WARNING TO THE PEOPLE
• The Government of Japan is currently
deploying strain meters throughout the
Tokai area to record PRE-QUAKE slip
and then provide as much advance
warning as possible.
FROM A DISASTER SCENARIO TO
PUBLIC POLICY
A disaster scenario facilitates
dialogue on the best ways to
form public policy for
protecting the city’s essential
facilities and critical infrastructure, another key element
of disaster resilience.
THE GOAL OF EVERY CITY
• WELL PREPARED
FOR ALL
NATURAL
HAZARDS (E.G.,
FLOODS,
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS,
EARTHQUAKES,
ETC.)