Planning Demand and Supply in a Supply Chain Forecasting and Aggregate Planning Chapters 8 and 9 1 utdallas.edu/~metin Learning Objectives Overview of forecasting Forecast errors Aggregate planning in the supply chain Managing demand Managing capacity 2 utdallas.edu/~metin Phases of Supply Chain Decisions Strategy or design: Planning: Operation/Execution Forecast Forecast Actual demand Since actual demands differ from the forecasts, … so does the execution from the plans. – E.g. Supply Chain degree plans for 40 students per year whereas the actual is ?? 3 utdallas.edu/~metin Characteristics of forecasts Forecasts are always wrong. Include expected value and measure of error. Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts. Too long term forecasts are useless: Forecast horizon – Forecasting to determine » Raw material purchases for the next week; Ericsson » Annual electricity generation capacity in TX for the next 30 years; Texas Utilities » Boat traffic intensity in the upper Mississippi until year 2100; Army Corps of Engineers Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts – Variance of aggregate is smaller because extremes cancel out » Two samples: {3,5} and {2,6}. Averages: 4 and 4. Totals : 8 and 8. » Variance of sample averages/totals=0 » Variance of {3,5,2,6}=5/2 – Several ways to aggregate » Products into product groups; Telecom switch boxes » Demand by location; Texas region » Demand by time; April demand utdallas.edu/~metin 4 Forecasting Methods Qualitative – Expert opinion » E.g. Why do you listen to Wall Street stock analysts? – What if we all listen to the same analyst? S/He becomes right! Time Series – Static – Adaptive Causal: Linear regression Forecast Simulation for planning purposes 5 utdallas.edu/~metin Master Production Schedule (MPS) Volume Firm Orders Frozen Zone Forecasts Flexible Zone Time MPS is a schedule of future deliveries. A combination of forecasts and firm orders. 9 utdallas.edu/~metin Aggregate Planning Chapter 8 10 utdallas.edu/~metin Aggregate Planning (Ag-gregate: Past part. of Ad-gregare: Totaled) If the actual is different than the plan, why bother sweating over detailed plans Aggregate planning: General plan for our frequency decomposition – Combined products = aggregate product » Short and long sleeve shirts = shirt Single product » AC and Heating unit pipes = pipes at Lennox Iowa plant – Pooled capacities = aggregated capacity » Dedicated machine and general machine = machine Single capacity – E.g. SOM has 100 instructors – Time periods = time buckets » Consider all the demand and production of a given month together utdallas.edu/~metin When does the demand or production take place in a time bucket? Increase the number of time buckets; decrease the bucket length. 11 Fundamental tradeoffs in Aggregate Planning Capacity: Regular time, Over time, Subcontract? Inventory: Backlog / lost sales, combination: Customer patience? Basic Strategies Chase (the demand) strategy; produce at the instantaneous demand rate – fast food restaurants Level strategy; produce at the rate of long run average demand – swim wear Time flexibility; high levels of workforce or capacity – machining shops, army Deliver late strategy – spare parts for your Jaguar utdallas.edu/~metin 12 - Which is which? Level Deliver late Chase Time flexibility Matching the Demand Adjust the capacity to match the demand Demand Use inventory Demand Demand Use delivery time utdallas.edu/~metin Demand 13 Capacity Demand Matching Inventory/Capacity tradeoff Level strategy: Leveling capacity forces inventory to build up in anticipation of seasonal variation in demand Chase strategy: Carrying low levels of inventory requires capacity to vary with seasonal variation in demand or enough capacity to cover peak demand during season 14 utdallas.edu/~metin Case Study: Aggregate planning at Red Tomato Farm tools: Shovels Spades Same characteristics? Generic tool, call it Shovel Forks Aggregate by similar characteristics 15 utdallas.edu/~metin Aggregate Planning at Red Tomato Tools Month January February March April May June Total Demand Forecast 1,600 3,000 3,200 3,800 2,200 2,200 16,000 16 utdallas.edu/~metin Aggregate Planning Item Materials Inventory holding cost Marginal cost of a backorder Hiring and training costs Layoff cost Labor hours required Regular time cost Over time cost Max overtime hrs per employee per month Cost of subcontracting Revenue Cost $10/unit $2/unit/month $5/unit/month $300/worker $500/worker 4hours/unit $4/hour $6/hour 10hours $30/unit $40/unit What is the cost of production per tool? That is materials plus labor. Overtime production is more expensive than subcontracting. 17 What is the saving achieved by producing a tool in house rather than subcontracting? utdallas.edu/~metin 1. Aggregate Planning (Decision Variables) Wt = Number of employees in month t, t = 1, ..., 6 Ht = Number of employees hired at the beginning of month t, t = 1, ..., 6 Lt = Number of employees laid off at the beginning of month t, t = 1, ..., 6 Pt = Production in units of shovels in month t, t = 1, ..., 6 It = Inventory at the end of month t, t = 1, ..., 6 St = Number of units backordered at the end of month t, t = 1, ..., 6 Ct = Number of units subcontracted for month t, t = 1, ..., 6 Ot = Number of overtime hours worked in month t, t = 1, ..., 6 Did we aggregate production capacity? 18 utdallas.edu/~metin 2. Objective Function: 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Min 4 8 20 W t 300 H t 500 L t 6 O t 2 I t 5 S t 10 P t 30 C t t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1 3. Constraints Workforce size for each month is based on hiring and layoffs W t W t 1 H t Lt, or W t W t 1 H t Lt 0 for t 1,...,6, where W 0 80. Production (in hours) utdallas.edu/~metin for each month cannot exceed capacity (in hours) 4 Pt 8 20W t Ot or 40W t Ot 4 Pt 0, for t 1,...,6. 19 3. Constraints Inventory balance for each month I I t 1 Pt Ct St Dt St 1 It , t 1 Pt Ct Dt St 1 It St 0, for t 1,...,6, where I 0 Pt 1,000, 0 0 and I 6 500. Ct I t 1 It Period t-1 Period t+1 Period t S t 1 utdallas.edu/~metin S Dt St 20 3. Constraints Overtime for each month O 10 W or 10 W O 0 for t t t t t 1,...,6. 21 utdallas.edu/~metin Execution Solve the formulation, see Table 8.3 – Total cost=$422.275K, total revenue=$640K Apply the first month of the plan Delay applying the remaining part of the plan until the next month Rerun the model with new data next month This is called rolling horizon execution 22 utdallas.edu/~metin Aggregate Planning at Red Tomato Tools This solution was for the following demand numbers: Month January February March April May June Total Demand Forecast 1,600 3,000 3,200 3,800 2,200 2,200 16,000 What if demand fluctuates more? 23 utdallas.edu/~metin Increased Demand Fluctuation Month January February March April May June Total Demand Forecast 1,000 3,000 3,800 4,800 2,000 1,400 16,000 Total costs=$432.858K. 16000 units of total production as before why extra cost? utdallas.edu/~metin With respect to $422.275K of before. 24 Manipulating the Demand Chapter 9 25 utdallas.edu/~metin Matching Demand and Supply Supply = Demand Supply < Demand => Lost revenue opportunity Supply > Demand => Inventory Manage Supply – Productions Management Manage Demand – Marketing 26 utdallas.edu/~metin Managing Predictable Variability with Supply Manage capacity » » » » Time flexibility from workforce (OT and otherwise) Seasonal workforce, agriculture workers Subcontracting Counter cyclical products: complementary products Similar products with negatively correlated demands – Snow blowers and Lawn Mowers – AC pumps and Heater pumps » Flexible capacities/processes: Dedicated vs. flexible a d a b c Similar capabilities utdallas.edu/~metin d a,b, c,d c b One super facility 27 Managing Predictable Variability with Inventory Component commonality – Remember fast food restaurant menus – Component commonality increase the benefit of postponement. » More on this later Build seasonal inventory of predictable products in preseason – Nothing can be learnt by procrastinating Keep inventory of predictable products in the downstream supply chain 28 utdallas.edu/~metin Managing Predictable Variability with Pricing Revisit Red Tomato Tools Manage demand with pricing – Original pricing: » Cost = $422,275, Revenue = $640,000, Profit=$217,725 Demand increases from discounting – Market growth – Stealing market share from competitors – Forward buying » stealing your own market share from the future Discount of $1 in a period increases that period’s demand by 10% (market and market share growth) and moves 20% of next two months demand forward Can you gather this information –price sensitivity of the demand- easily? Does your company have this information? 29 utdallas.edu/~metin Off-Peak (January) Discount from $40 to $39 Month January February March April May June Demand Forecast 3,000=1600(1.1)+0.2(3000+3200) 2,400=3000(0.8) 2,560=3200(0.8) 3,800 2,200 2,200 Cost = $421,915, Revenue = $643,400, Profit = $221,485 30 utdallas.edu/~metin Peak (April) Discount from $40 to $39 Month January February March April May June Demand Forecast 1,600 3,000 3,200 5,060=3800(1.1)+0.2(2200+2200) 1,760=2200(0.8) 1,760=2200(0.8) Cost = $438,857, Revenue = $650,140, Profit = $211,283 Discounting during peak increases the revenue 31 but decreases the profit! utdallas.edu/~metin Demand Management Pricing and Aggregate Planning must be done jointly Factors affecting discount timing and their new values – Consumption: 100% increase in consumption instead of 10% increase – Forward buy, still 20% of the next two months – Product Margin: Impact of higher margin. What if discount from $31 to $30 instead of from $40 to $39.) 32 utdallas.edu/~metin January Discount: 100% increase in consumption, sale price = $40 ($39) Month January February March April May June Demand Forecast 4,440=1600(2)+0.2(3000+3200) 2,400=0.8(3000) 2,560=0.8(3200) 3,800 2,200 2,200 Off peak discount: Cost = $456,750, Revenue = $699,560 Profit=$242,810 33 utdallas.edu/~metin Peak (April) Discount: 100% increase in consumption, sale price = $40 ($39) Month January February March April May June Demand Forecast 1,600 3,000 3,200 8,480=3800(2)+(0.2)(2200+2200) 1,760=(0.8)2200 1,760=(0.8)2200 Peak discount: Cost = $536,200, Revenue = $783,520 Profit=$247,320 34 utdallas.edu/~metin Performance Under Different Scenarios Regular Price $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $31 $31 $31 Promotion Price $40 $39 $39 $39 $39 $31 $30 $30 Promotion Period NA January April January April NA January April % increase in demand NA 10% 10% 100% 100% NA 100% 100% % forward buy NA 20% 20% 20% 20% NA 20% 20% Profit $217,725 $221,485 $211,283 $242,810 $247,320 $73,725 $84,410 $69,120 Average Inventory 895 523 938 208 1,492 895 208 1,492 Use rows in bold to explain Xmas discounts. The product, with less (forward buying/market growth) ratio, is discounted more. What gift should you buy on the special days (peak demand) when retailers supposedly give discounts? E.g. Think of flowers on valentine’s day. How about diamonds? For flowers, what is (forward buying/market growth) due to discounting? How about for diamonds? Need empirical data. What is available? utdallas.edu/~metin 35 Empirical Data: Who spends / How much on Valentine’s day The average consumer spends $122.98 on 2008 Valentine’s Day, similar to $119.67 of 2007. Total US spending on Valentine’s Day is $17.02 B by 18+. Spending – by gender » Men again dishes out the most in 2008, spending an average of $163.37 on gifts and cards, compared to an average of $84.72 spent by women. – by age » » » » » Adults: 25-34 spend $160.37. Young adults: 18-24 spend $145.59. Upper Middle age: 45-54 spend $117.91. Lower Middle age: 35-44 spend $116.35. Elderly: 55-64 spend $110.97. » » » » » » » 56.8% of all consumers give a greeting card. 48.2% plan a special night out. 48.0% buy candy. 35.9% buy flowers. 12.3% give a gift card. 11.8% buy clothing. ??.?% buy diamonds Gifts utdallas.edu/~metin – Source: National Retail Federation www.nrf.com 36 Factors Affecting Promotion Timing Factor High forward buying High stealing share High growth of market High margin Low margin High holding cost Low capacity volume flexibility Favored timing Low demand period High demand period High demand period High demand period Low demand period Low demand period Low demand period 37 utdallas.edu/~metin Aside: Continuous Compounding If my $1investment earns an interest of r per year, what is my interest+investment at the end of the year? Answer: (1+r) If I earn an interest of r/2 per six months, what is my interest+ investment at the end of the year? Answer: (1+r/2)2 If I earn an interest of (r/m) per (12/m) months, what is my interest+investment? Answer: (1+r/m)m Think of continuous compounding as the special case of discrete-time compounding when m approaches infinity. What if I earn an interest of (r/infinity) per (12/infinity) months? m r Answer : lim 1 e r where m m 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 e 1 1 2 6 24 120 n 0 n! utdallas.edu/~metin See the appendix of scaggregate.pdf for more on continuous compounding. 38 Deterministic Capacity Expansion Issues Single vs. Multiple Facilities – Dallas and Atlanta plants of Lockheed Martin Single vs. Multiple Resources – Machines and workforce; or aggregated capacity Single vs. Multiple Product Demands – Have you aggregated your demand when studying the capacity? Expansion only or with Contraction – Is there a second-hand machine market? Discrete vs. Continuous Expansion Times – Can you expand SOM building capacity during the spring term? Discrete vs. Continuous Capacity Increments – Can you buy capacity in units of 2.313832? Resource costs, economies of scale Penalty for demand-capacity mismatch – Recallable capacity: Electricity block outs vs Electricity buy outs » Happens in Wisconsin Electricity market » What if American Airlines recalls my ticket Single vs. Multiple decision makers utdallas.edu/~metin 39 A Simple Model Units Capacity x Demand D(t)= t x x/ Time (t) No stock outs. x is the size of the capacity increments. δ is the increase rate of the demand. 40 utdallas.edu/~metin Infinite Horizon Total Discounted Cost f(x) is expansion cost of capacity increment of size x f ( x) x ; r 5%; 1. 0.5 C(x) is the long run (infinite horizon) total discounted expansion cost x f ( x) C ( x) exp r (k ) f ( x) f ( x) (exp( rx / )) k 1 exp( rx / ) k 0 k 0 41 utdallas.edu/~metin Solution of the Simple Model Discounted Expansion Cost 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Expansion Size Solution can be: Each time expand capacity by an amount that is equal to 30-week demand. utdallas.edu/~metin 42 Shortages, Inventory Holding, Subcontracting Units Capacity Subcontracting Demand Surplus capacity Inventory build up Inventory depletion Time Use of Inventory and subcontracting to delay capacity expansions 43 utdallas.edu/~metin Stochastic Capacity Planning: The case of flexible capacity 1 A y1A=1, y2A=1, y3A=0 B y1B=0, y2B=0, y3B=1 2 3 Plants Products Plant 1 and 2 are tooled to produce product A Plant 3 is tooled to produce product B A and B are substitute products – with random demands DA + DB = Constant utdallas.edu/~metin 44 Capacity allocation Say capacities are r1=r2= r3=100 Suppose that DA + DB = 300 and DA >100 and DB >100 With plant flexibility y1A=1, y2A=1, y3A=0, y1B=0, y2B=0, y3B=1. Scenario DA DB X1A X2A X3A X1B X2B X3B 1 200 100 100 100 100 0 2 150 150 100 50 100 50 B 3 100 200 100 0 100 100 B If the scenarios are equally likely, expected shortage is 50. utdallas.edu/~metin Shortage 45 Capacity allocation with more flexibility Say capacities are r1=r2= r3=100 Suppose that DA + DB = 300 and DA >100 and DB >100 With plant flexibility y1A=1, y2A=1, y3A=0, y1B=0, y2B=1, y3B=1. Scenario DA DB X1A X2A X3A X1B X2B X3B Shortage 1 200 100 100 100 0 100 0 2 150 150 100 50 50 100 0 3 100 200 100 0 100 100 0 Flexibility can decrease shortages. In this case, from 50 to 0. 46 utdallas.edu/~metin A Formulation with Known Demands: Dj=dj i denotes plants j denotes products, not necessarily substitutes cij tooling cost to configure plant i to Max - c ij yij m j x ij i, j i, j produce j Subject to mj contribution to margin of producing/selling a unit of j j x ij ri for each plant i ri capacity at plant i x ij ri yij for each plant i and product j Dj=dj product j demand yij=1 if plant i can produce product j, 0 o.w. xij=units of j produced at plant i utdallas.edu/~metin x ij d j for each product j i x ij 0 , y ij {0,1} Solutions depend on scenarios: - If DA=200 and DB=100, then y1A=y2A=y3B=1. - If DA=100 and DB=200, then y1A=y2B=y3B=1. 47 Unknown Demands: Dj=djk with probability pk Dj=djk product j demand under scenario k xijk= units of j produced at plant i if scenario k happens Max - c ij yij p k m j x ijk i, j k i, j Subject to k x ij ri for each plant i j yij=1 if plant i can produce product j, 0 o.w. Does yij differ under different scenarios? Should my variable depend on scenarios? (Yes / No) Anticipatory variable and Nonanticapatory variable utdallas.edu/~metin and scenario k x ijk ri yij for each plant i, product j and scenario k k k x d ij j for each product i i and scenario k x ijk 0 , y ij {0,1} 48 Reality Check: How do car manufacturers assign products to plants? With the last formulation, we treated the problem of assigning products to plants. This type of assignment called for tooling/preparation of each plant appropriately so that it can produce the car type it is assigned to. These tooling (nonanticipatory) decisions are made at most once a year and manufacturers work with the current assignments to meet the demand. When market conditions change, the product-to-plant assignment is revisited. – Almost all car manufacturers in North America are retooling their previously truck manufacturing plants to manufacture compact cars as consumer demand basically disappeared for trucks with high gas prices. – Also note that the profit margin made from a truck sale is 2-5 times more than the margin made from a car sale. No wonder why manufacturers prefer to sell trucks! In the following pages, you will find the product to plant assignment of major car manufacturers in the North America. These assignments were updated in the summer of 2008 just about the time when manufacturers started talking 49 about retooling plants to produce compact cars. utdallas.edu/~metin All of Toyota Plants in the North America Toyota. Cambridge Corolla, Matrix, Lexus, Rav4 Toyota-Subaru. LaFayette Camry Nummi: Toyota-GM. Freemont. Corolla, Tacoma, Pontiac Vibe Toyota. Princeton Tundra, Suquoia, Sienna Toyota. Georgetown Avalon, Camry, Solara Toyota. Long Beach Hino Toyota. Blue Springs Highlander Toyota. Tijuana, Mexico Tacoma Toyota. San Antonio Tundra 50 utdallas.edu/~metin All of Honda Plants in the North America Honda. Alliston, Ca. Civic, Acura, Odyssey, Pilot, Ridgeline Honda. Decatur TBO in 2008 Honda. Marysville Accord, Acura Honda. Lincoln Odyssey, Pilot Honda. El Salto, Me Accord 51 utdallas.edu/~metin All of Nissan Plants in the North America Nissan. Smyrna Frontier, Xterra, Altima, Maxima, Pathfinder Nissan. Canton Quest, Armada, Titan, Infiniti, Altima 52 utdallas.edu/~metin All of Hyundai-Kia Plants in the North America Kia. LaGrange TBO in 2009 Hyundai. Montgomery Sonata, Santa Fe 53 utdallas.edu/~metin All of Mercedes and BMW Plants in the North America BMW. Spartanburg Z4, X5, X6 M roadster, coupes Mercedes. Tuscaloosa M, R classes 54 utdallas.edu/~metin All of Ford Plants in the North America Ford. Dearborn F-150, Lincoln Mark LT Ford. Flat Rock Mustang, Mazda 6 Ford. Oakville, Ca. Edge, Lincoln MKX Ford. Saint Paul Ranger, Mazda B series Ford. Saint Thomas, Ca. Crown Victoria, Grand Marquis Ford. Wayne Focus, Expedition, Lincoln Navigator Ford. Chicago Taurus, Mercury Sable Ford. Avon Lake E Series Ford. Kansas City Escape, Escape Hybrid, Mazda Tribute, Mercury Mariner, F-150 Ford. Louisville F-250, F-550, Explorer, Mercury Mountaineer Ontario, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio in Focus Ford. Hermosillo, Mex. Ford Fusion, Lincoln MKZ, Mercury Milan 55 utdallas.edu/~metin Ford. Cuatitlan, Mex. F-150, 250, 350, 450, 550,Ikon All of Chrysler Plants in the North America Chrysler. Sterling Heights Dodge Avenger, Chrysler Sebring Chrysler. Brampton, Ca Chrysler 300, Dodge Challenger, Dodge Charger Chrysler. Warren Dodge Ram, Dakota, Mitsubishi Raider Chrysler. Detroit-Jefferson North Jeep Grand Cherokee and Commander Chrysler. Detroit-Conner Ave. Dodge Viper, SRT 10 Roadster Chrysler. Windsor, Ca Dodge Grand Caravan, Chrysler Town Chrysler. Belvidere Dodge Caliber, Jeep Compass, Jeep Patriot Chrysler. Toledo Jeep Liberty, Dodge Nitro Chrysler. Newark Dodge Durango, Chrysler Aspen Will close in 2009 Chrysler. Fenton-North Dodge Ram Chrysler. Fenton-South Grand Voyager, Grand Caravan, Cargo Van Ontario, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio in Focus Chrysler. Saltillo, Mex. Dodge Ram 56 utdallas.edu/~metin Chrysler. Toluca, Mex. Chrysler PT Cruise, Dodge Journey All of GM Plants in the North America GM. Lansing-Grand River Cadillac E-SRX GM. Lansing-Delta Township Buick Enclave, Saturn Outlook, GMC Acadia GM. Orion Pontiac G6, Chevrolet Malibu GM. Oshawa, Ca Chevy Impala, Buick Allure, Chevy Silverado, GMC Sierra. Trucks will stop in 2009. GM. Flint GMC Sierra, Chevy Silverado, Chevy - GMC medium trucks. GM. Pontiac Chevy Silverado, GMC Sierra GM. Detroit Buick Lucerne, Cadillac DTS GM. Janisville Chevy Tahoe, Suburban, GMC Yukon Will stop in 2010 GM. Wilmington Saturn L series, Pontiac Solstice GM. Fort Wayne Chevy Silverado, GMC Sierra GM. Moraine Chevy Trailblazer, GMC Envoy, Oldsmobile Bravada, Isuzu Ascender, Saab 9-7X Will stop in 2010 GM. Fairfax Chevy Malibu, Malibu Maxx, Saturn Aura GM. Lordstown Chevy Cobalt, Pontiac Pursuit, G4, G5 GM. Wentzville Chevy Express, GMC Savana GM. Bowling Green Cadillac XLR, Chevy Corvette GM. Spring Hill Saturn Ion and Vue Currently down GM. Doraville Chevy Uplander, Pontiac Montana Ontario, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio in Focus GM. Arlington Chevy Tahoe, Suburban, GMC Yukon, Cadillac Escalade GM. Shreveport Chevy Colorado, GMC Canyon, Isuzu brands, Hummer H3 GM. Ramos Arizpe, Mex. Pontiac Aztek, Chevy Cavalier, Chevrolet Checy, Pontiac Sunfire, Buick Rendezvous GM. Silao, Mex. Chevrolet Suburban, Chevrolet Avalanche, GMC Yukon, Cadillac Escalade utdallas.edu/~metin GM. Toluca, Mex. Chevrolet Kodiak Truck Stopping in 2008 57 Summary of Learning Objectives Forecasting Aggregate planning Supply and demand management during aggregate planning with predictable demand variation – Supply management levers – Demand management levers Capacity Planning 58 utdallas.edu/~metin Material Requirements Planning Master Production Schedule (MPS) Bill of Materials (BOM) MRP explosion Advantages – Disciplined database – Component commonality Shortcomings – Rigid lead times – No capacity consideration 59 utdallas.edu/~metin Optimized Production Technology Focus on bottleneck resources to simplify planning Product mix defines the bottleneck(s) ? Provide plenty of non-bottleneck resources. Shifting bottlenecks 60 utdallas.edu/~metin Just in Time production Focus on timing Advocates pull system, use Kanban Design improvements encouraged Lower inventories / set up time / cycle time Quality improvements Supplier relations, fewer closer suppliers, Toyota city JIT philosophically different than OPT or MRP, it is not only a planning tool but a continuous improvement scheme 61 utdallas.edu/~metin