The Hume Workforce Development
Committee
Hume Regional Development Australia
It’s all about the Evidence........
Labour Market Snapshot
Workforce Planning Australia | March 2012
© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au
What is a Labour Market Scan?
The approach for developing the Labour Market Snapshots considered a range of
information as shown by the graphic below:
Level of detail
The population, education &
workforce participation levels
provide context for regional
labour market analysis.
2|
The primary focus of the snapshots is
on identifying Hume industry &
occupational growth trends.
Data Overview
Labour Market Data Sources
The Labour Market Snapshots drew on multiple data sources. These include:
• Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS):
o Census Data, 2006
o Labour force Surveys
o Industry reports
• DEEWR:
o Skills Shortages List
o Regional profile information
• Hume:
o Workforce Development Committee Report
o Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities
• Other:
o Skills Info Industry Reports
o Skills Victoria Enrolment data
o Monash CoPs Data on occupations
o Industry Skills Councils – Environmental Labour Market Scans
4|
Quality and Limitations
The data challenges included:
5|
1.
Different definitions of industries / occupations between ABS, Industry Skills
Councils and Monash.
–
‘Health Care and Social Assistance’ (ABS) vs Community Services & Health
–
Different terms used for occupations, ‘personal carers’ or ‘health aid’ etc.
2.
Different Time periods
3.
Old Data - ABS Census data is now 6 years old.
4.
Lack of HUME region industry data particularly for industries where employers are
predominantly private sector (e.g. manufacturing and Transport and Logistics)
5.
Lack of regional Skills Shortage Data – DEEWR lists are at the State level
6.
Changes in name and level of VET qualifications (training packages)
7.
Poor sourcing of data – The data source and date were unclear
Limitations on trend analysis
When available the 2011 ABS Census data should be compared with 2006 data to build
a picture of emerging and declining occupations in Hume.
Key data includes:
• Industry employed by Age and LGA
6|
•
Occupation by Age and LGA
•
Education Levels by Age and LGA
•
Main good and Services provided by employer by LGA
•
Hours worked by occupation and Age
Hume Labour Market
About Hume
•
The Hume Region is comprised of four distinct and inter-connected sub regions
that extend over 40,000 square kilometres of provincial northeast Victoria.
•
The Region contains twelve local government areas (LGAs) and is characterised by
a network of regional cities and centres located along major transport routes. There is
no single dominant major regional city in the Hume Region.
•
The four Hume sub regions are structured as follows:
― Central Hume: Alpine, Benalla, Mansfield and Wangaratta
― Goulburn Valley: Greater Shepparton, Moira, Strathbogie and Campaspe
― Lower Hume: Mitchell and Murrindindi
― Upper Hume: Indigo, Towong and Wodonga
Source: The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010-2020, Skills Victoria.
8|
Population profile
The total population of the Hume region is 274,236 people spread across 12 LGAs:
Benalla
14,293
Indigo
16,111
Moira
29,385
Wodonga
36,432
Towong
6,343
Wangaratta
28,938
G Shepparton
63,335
Alpine
12,866
Strathbogie
10,012
Mitchell
35,044
Murrindindi
13,505
Source: ABS Census Data 2006
9|
Mansfield
7,972
Hume Region Boundary
Sub-region Boundary
Local Government Area
(LGA) Boundary
Population Growth Projection
•
Significant population growth is expected in Mitchell, Wodonga and Greater Shepparton
•
A drop in population is expected in Towong, Murrindindi and Strathbogie
Source: Regional Managers Market Facilitation & ACFE October 2011
10 |
Workforce Participation Rates
(Adult Population) by LGA
Labour force (below 65) as percentage of total LGA population:
Moira
71% (2006)
xxx (2011)
G Shepparton
72%(2006)
xxx (2011)
Indigo
68%(2006)
xxx (2011)
Mitchell
70% (2006)
xxx (2011)
11 |
Towong
72% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Benalla
73%(2006)
xxx (2011)
Strathbogie
70% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Source: ABS Census Data 2006
Wodonga
75%(2006)
xxx (2011)
Murrindindi
69% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Wangaratta
75%(2006)
xxx (2011)
Mansfield
72% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Alpine
71% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Hume Region Boundary
Sub-region Boundary
Local Government Area
(LGA) Boundary
Unemployment Rate by LGA
Moira
4.7% (2006)
xxx (2011)
G Shepparton
6.0% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Indigo
3.7% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Mitchell
4.8% (2006)
xxx (2011)
12 |
Towong
3.7% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Benalla
5.7% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Strathbogie
4.4%(2006)
xxx (2011)
Source: ABS Census Data 2006
Wodonga
5.3% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Murrindindi
4.2% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Wangaratta
4.6% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Mansfield
4.3% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Alpine
4.6% (2006)
xxx (2011)
Hume Region Boundary
Sub-region Boundary
Local Government Area
(LGA) Boundary
Employment by LGA and Industry
•
Retail Trade, Manufacturing & Health & Community Services are the largest employing
industries in Hume.
•
Greater Shepparton and Wodonga have the highest working population.
Source: Regional Managers Market Facilitation & ACFE October 2011
13 |
Difficult to fill Occupations
Occupations – Difficult to fill in North Eastern Victoria
Bachelor and Higher VET
VET and other
General Medical Practitioners
Sales Reps
Early Childhood Teachers
Bar Attendants and Baristas
Chefs*
Truck Drivers*
Motor Mechanics*
Sales Assistants (General)*
Reg Nurses*
Motor Vehicle and Vehicle parts
salespersons
Structural Steel and Welding Trades
Workers
Child carers
Real Estate Sales Agents*
General Clerks*
Balers and Pastry Cooks
Housekeepers
Source: DEEWR, North Eastern Victoria Priority Employment Area Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences (Aug 2011) (* Aug 2010)
14 |
Education
Percentage of Population with
Higher Level Qualification
Note: Higher Level Qualification= University degree level.
Benalla
10%
Indigo
14%
Moira
6%
Wodonga
10%
Towong
10%
G Shepparton
9%
Wangaratta
10%
Strathbogie
9%
Alpine
11%
Mitchell
8%
Mansfield
11%
Murrindindi
12%
Source: ABS Census Data 2006
16 |
Hume Region Boundary
Sub-region Boundary
Local Government Area
(LGA) Boundary
Highest level of Educational
Attainment
Hume Highest Level of Educational Attainment
Level
20-24 (%)
25-29 (%)
Total whole
population(%)
Bachelor Degree or Above
7%
16%
10%
Adv Diploma/ Diploma/
Certificate
27%
31%
23%
School Education
56%
43%
53%
Not Stated etc
8%
7%
12%
Source: ABS Census Data 2006
17 |
Hume VET Enrolments
•
Construction, Health & Community Services, Manufacturing have seen significant
increases in VET enrolments.
Wholesale Trade
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Retail Trade
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Public Administration and Safety
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Other Services
Mining
Manufacturing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Health Care and Social Assistance
Financial and Insurance Services
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Education and Training
Construction
Arts and Recreation Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Administrative and Support Services
Accommodation and Food Services
2008
2011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
18 |
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
VET Enrolments Age Profile
•
The majority of VET enrolments are in the 15-19 year old age group. This group has
seen significant growth over the period to 2011.
14000
12000
10000
8000
2008
6000
2011
4000
2000
0
15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64
Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
19 |
65 and
over
Diversity of VET enrolments
•
The diversity of enrolments has increased with greater numbers of CALD and indigenous
students.
•
Disabled enrolments has slightly declined.
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
2008
4%
2011
3%
2%
1%
0%
Disabled
CALD
Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
20 |
Indigenous
Industry Specific Labour Market Scans
Manufacturing
Transport & Logistics
Heath and Community Services
© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au
Manufacturing
Manufacturing Employment
Overview
•
Over the last decade, employment in the
Manufacturing industry has decreased by
8.3% (86,000) Australia wide.
•
In Hume Manufacturing employment is
expected to decline over the period to
2016.
•
There will be growth in Product
Assemblers and other main employing
occupations will remain steady to 201516.
Manufacturing Employment Hume
National Manufacturing Employment (‘000)- 2001-2011
Manufacturing Occupations Hume
21
Keyboard Operators
20.5
Plastics Prod. Machine Ops
20
Product Assemblers
19.5
ICT Managers
19
Telecom Engineering Profs
18.5
Metal Fitters & Machinists
18
2010-1
2015-6
Metal Casting…
17.5
Supply & Distrib. Managers
17
Struc.l Steel Constn…
16.5
16
2010-1
2011-2
2012-3
2013-4
2014-5
2015-6
Struc Steel & Welding…
0
0.1
0.2
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.
23 | Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Manufacturing Education Overview
•
•
•
1200
Enrolment Course Level
There has been an increase in VET
enrolments for the industry in Hume
(driven by Cert IV, III, II, I levels).
Diploma
There has been significant growth in VET
course enrolments from the 50-54 and
55-59 age groups.
Certificate IV
There has been an increase in the
diversity of enrolments in Hume
Manufacturing. The greatest increase has
been in the proportion of CALD students.
Certificate II
2008
Certificate III
2011
Certificate I
0
VET Enrolments Age
9%
500
1000
1500
2000
Diversity of Enrolments
8%
1000
7%
800
6%
600
400
200
0
2008
2011
5%
4%
3%
2008
2011
2%
1%
15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65
0%
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
59
64 and
over
Indigenous
Disabled
CALD
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.
24 | Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Workforce Planning Considerations
25 |
1.
What are the occupations that will experience greatest growth / decline over the next
10 years?
2.
What is driving the increase in VET course enrolments over the period 2008-2011
given Manufacturing is a declining industry?
3.
What is driving the growth in VET course enrolments in mature aged workers (50-60
years)?
4.
What is driving the increase in the diversity of course enrolments? Espcecially in the
CALD students?
Transport & Logistics
Transport & Logistics Employment
Overview
•
National T & L Employment is projected
to grow at 2.2% (stronger then all
industries projection of 1.8%).
•
T & L employment in Hume is expected
to grow and level out over the period to
2015. (Average annual growth of 4%.)
•
Gradual growth is expected in all T & L
occupations (significant increase in truck
drivers relative to other occupations).
3
2.5
2
T & L Employment Hume
Projected National Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011-15
T & L Occupations Hume
Supply & Distrib. Managers
Train & Tram Drivers
Sales Assistants (General)
Automobile Drivers
Storepersons
1.5
1
Forklift Drivers
Transport Services Managers
2010-1
2014-5
Bus & Coach Drivers
0.5
0
Couriers & Postal Deliverers
Truck Drivers
2010-1
2011-2
2012-3
2013-4
2014-5
2015-6
0
1
2
3
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.
27 | Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Transport & Logistics Education
Overview
•
There has been an increase in VET
enrolments in T & L in Hume. (Cert III and
diploma level).
Enrolment Course Level
Diploma
Certificate IV
•
There has been significant growth in VET
course enrolments from the 15-19 and 20-Certificate III
24 year old age groups.
2008
2011
Certificate II
•
500
The diversity of enrolments has increased.
The greatest increase has come from the Certificate I
proportion of CALD students.
0
VET Enrolments Age
6%
450
400
500
1000
1500
Diversity of Enrolments
5%
350
4%
300
250
200
150
100
2008
2011
3%
2%
2008
2011
1%
50
0%
Disabled
Indigenous
CALD
15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 and
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
59
64
over
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.
28 | Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
0
Workforce Planning Considerations
1.
What is driving growth stronger then the national average in the Hume Transport &
Logistics industry? Have all factors been considered?
2.
What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2008-2011?
o
o
o
29 |
Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24?
Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.?
Decrease in driver VET enrolments against this trend? Changes to training package /
occupational requirements?
3.
Are youth following a pathway in the industry? Starting in operational / administrative
positions and transitioning to driver roles?
4.
Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain truck drivers in the industry?
5.
What factors are inhibiting youth age groups in the driver occupations? E.g. Insurance,
cost, training etc.?
Health & Community
Services
Health & Community Services
Employment Overview
•
National H & CS employment is forecast
to grow by 4.7% over the next 5 years.
•
Hume H & CS employment is expected to
grow slightly and level out over the same
period.
•
There will be significant growth in
Registered Nurses and Aged Carers. (All
other occupations will generally remain
steady).
Hume H & CS Occupations
Hume H & CS Employment
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010-1
2011-2
2012-3
2013-4
2014-5
Projected National Employment Growth (% pa)2011 to 2015
2015-6
Generalist Medical…
Welfare Support Workers
Commercial Cleaners
Kitchenhands
Enrolled & Mothercraft…
Receptionists
Nursing Support Workers
Child Carers
Aged & Disabled Carers
Registered Nurses
2010-1
2015-6
0
2
4
6
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.
31 | Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Health & Community Services
Education Overview
Enrolment Course Level
There has been an increase in VET
enrolments in H & CS in Hume. (Cert III
and diploma level).
•
There has been significant growth in VET
course enrolments from the 15-19 and
40-44 year old age groups.
•
Diploma
Certificate IV
2008
Certificate III
2011
Certificate II
The diversity of enrolments has remained
constant and only slightly increased.
•
Advanced Diploma
0
VET Enrolments Age
10%
900
9%
800
8%
700
7%
600
6%
2008
400
2011
300
2000
2008
4%
2011
3%
2%
100
1%
15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
59
64
and
over
1500
5%
200
0
1000
Diversity of Enrolments
1000
500
500
0%
Disabled
Indigenous
CALD
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.
32 | Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Workforce Planning Considerations
1.
What is driving growth on par or above the national average in the Hume Health &
Community Services industry? Have all factors been considered?
2.
What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2008-2012?
–
–
–
33 |
Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24?
Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.?
Diversity of enrolments has remained stable. Are there any strategies in place to increase
diversity?
3.
Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain nurses and aged carers in the
industry?
4.
Are there other smaller occupations that are showing growth at the local level?
5.
Which occupations are employers reporting local skill shortages or recruitment
difficulties?
6.
What is the nature of the shortages/or difficulties? E.g. Are they seasonal? In pockets?
For certain shifts or positions? Specific regions? Turnover related?
7.
Are there clear pathways into these occupations and from these occupations to others?
Questions?
34 |
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Associate
(03) 9206 8004
(03) 9206 8002
(03) 9206 8010
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© Workforce Planning Australia, 2012