The Role of the Universities
In the Millennium Villages Project
Jeffrey D. Sachs
June 5, 2006

COUNTRIES REQUIRING URGENT EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE
(Total: 27 countries)
FAO/GIEWS December 2005

CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA
Economic Growth
1990-2003
Africa
Asia
8.0
4.0
2.0
Decreasing Corruption Increasing Corruption

Demographic Comparison of South Asia and
Sub-Saharan Africa
20
15
10
5
0
U5 Mortality
(per 100)
Total Fertility
Rate
Pop Growth
(2003-2015)
Africa
South Asia

THREE GREAT CHALLENGES
•Green Revolution
•Health Revolution
•Connectivity Revolution

GREEN REVOLUTION:
Seed, Soils, Water, Climate, Pathogens

FAO Index of Net Food Output per Capita, 1961-2000
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
World E SE Asia South Asia Sub-Sahara

Reported Grain yield levels
Some observations from sub-Saharan Africa
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Zambia
Tanzania
Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia
Burkina Faso
Niger
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Observed
On-farm
Official
On-farm
On-station Commercial farmers

Nutrient Mining in Agricultural Lands of
Africa
1995 –97 2002 –04 kg/ha

HEALTH REVOLUTION:
Infectious disease control, human resources, public awareness, logistics

Malaria Ecology Index

Sub-Saharan Africa has the Highest Prevalence of Nine Neglected Tropical Diseases
Condition Cases in Africa
Hookworm
Ascariasis
Schistosomiasis
Trichuriasis
198 million
173 million
166 million
162 million
Trachoma 33 million
Lymphatic Filariasis 46 million
Onchocerciasis
Trypanosomiasis
Dracunculiasis
18 million
0.5 million
<0.1 million
Proportion of Global
Burden in Africa
27%-34%
14%-22%
89%
20%-26%
40%
38%
99%
100%
100%

Geographic Overlap of Hookworm and
Malaria

CONNECTIVITY REVOLUTION:
Roads, rail, ports, telecommunications, internet

A Comparison of Railway Networks in Africa and India

THE ECONOMIC STRATEGY
•Rural Sector: Millennium Villages
•Urban Sector: Millennium Cities
•Demographic Transition

Rural Sector
Community-led development through
Millennium Villages

Maternal empowerment, girls’ education,
Child survival, contraceptive availability,
Family planning

A NEW STRATEGY TO
END EXTREME POVERTY IN AFRICA
THROUGH
COMMUNITY-BASED DEVELOPMENT

Income per capita
COMPARATIVE GROWTH DYNAMICS
OF AFRICA AND ASIA
Saving
Dissaving
Basic
Needs
Level
Africa
Poverty Trap
Asia
Self-Sustaining Growth

The Strategy for Ending Extreme Poverty
Millennium Villages:
•Raise Farm Incomes and Household Saving
•Introduce Microfinance
•Introduce Contract Farming
•Reduce Population Growth Rates
•Bolster Urban Demand and Jobs
Based on Millennium Village Successes:
•Scale Up

Africa Has (So Far) Missed the Green Revolution
Yield (tons per hectare)
2.0
1.0
1960
2005
Sub-Saharan Africa
2005
1960
South Asia

CROP
YIELDS
Raising Farm Incomes
A “Green Revolution”
Economic
Surplus
DECLINING
SOIL
NUTRIENTS,
UNSTABLE
CLIMATE,
MONOCULTURE
REBUILDING
SOIL NUTRIENTS,
RAINWATER
HARVESTING,
CROP
DIVERSIFICATION
CURRENT
CRISIS
MILLENNIUM
VILLAGES

Area Planted to Food Declines, While Food Production Rises
Area planted to
Food
Area planted to Food
Area planted
To cash crops

Contract Farming (some examples)
Nestle (dairy)
Carrefour
Land o’ Lakes
Rosebud (cut flowers)
Starbucks
Arachide de Bouche (peanuts)
ITC
South African Breweries
Guiness Nigeria PLC (sorghum)

Agribusiness Development Steps
:
•Identify potential commodities and markets
•Agronomic expertise
•Community Organization
•Discussions with potential international buyers and investors
•Millennium Cities initiative to create business-friendly environment
•Millennium Project policy discussions with national government
•Sanitary and phyto-sanitary conditions
•Infrastructure: storage, electricity, road transport
•Assistance with contract negotiations
•Assistance with venture capital financing and management

Examples of Opportunities for Contract Farming
Cut flowers
Vegetables: asparagus, broccoli, peas, fine beans, Brussels sprouts, artichoke
Fruits: pineapple, mango, watermelon, passion fruit, papaya
Spices: vanilla, cardamom, peppers
Cane sugar
Ethanol from cane sugar
Cotton
Dairy
Honey
Starch
Cocoa
Coffee
Peanuts
Cashews
Wood pulp
Carbon sequestration offsets

Rosebud Corporation:
Located on the shores of Lake Victoria, two rose-growing farms have a total land area of over 600 acres. The farms are both within 30 minutes of
Entebbe International Airport. www.rosebudlimited.com

Blue Skies, Ghana in Partnership with
Royal Ahold, Netherlands

The Health Strategy:
Disease Prevention and Health Promotion through:
Insecticide-treated bed nets
Improved water points and sanitation
AIDS awareness
Micronutrient supplementation
De-worming
School feeding
Antenatal Care
Reproductive health services
Disease Treatment through clinical services for:
Malaria
Tropical parasites
Diarrheal disease
Respiratory infection
AIDS treatments including Antiretrovirals
DOTS for TB
Safe delivery

REDUCED MORTALITY, FERTILITY, AND POPULATION GROWTH
MORTALITY FERTILITY POPULATION GROWTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THE MILLENNIUM VILLAGE PROJECT

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Under-5 Mortality Rate (female)
Baseline (UN medium forecast)
Accelerated mortality transition
Year

Total Fertility Rate
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
Year
Baseline (UN medium forecast)
Accelerated Fertility
Transition

2000
1500
1000
500
0
African Population (millions)
Baseline Projection
(UN medium forecast)
Accelerated Mortality
Transition alone
Accelerated Mortality and Fertility Transition
Year

$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Recommended
Current
Sector ODA Per African Per Annum: Recommended versus Current
Source: OECD DAC, 2003
Note: ODA net of Technical Cooperation

SCALING UP ACROSS AFRICA
Planting season
Country
Kenya
Rwanda
Uganda
Malawi
Mali
Nigeria
Ghana
Senegal
Ethiopia
Tanzania
# of
Research
Villages
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
6
5
5
10
5
2
7
6
10
# of Millennium
Promise
Villages
2006
Population in villages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
10 60,000
Nov Dec
15,000
40,000
35,000
55,000
40,000
30,000
30,000
55,000
30,000
Total 12 66
Source:Earth Institute; Millennium Promise
390,000

Scaling Up the Millennium Villages:
Proving Success in 2006
From 100 Villages in 2006 to 1,000 Villages in 2007, through
NGO Partnerships
Millennium Villages at the G8 in 2007
Mobilizing Official and Private Donor Support during 2007-2015

Donor Costs Needed for Scaling up the
Millennium Villages
$60 per capita x 500,000,000 rural poor = additional $30 billion per year
U.S. part: approximately (1/2) x $30 billion =
$15 billion per year
Needed overall U.S. aid to Africa = approximately
$25 billion per year

• If we fail to act:
•8 million Africans will die each year of preventable or treatable causes
•Africa’s poverty will worsen
•War, violence, and threats of terror will escalate
•The population in Africa will soar
•Global disease transmission will be much more likely
•U.S. energy security will be imperiled
•Environmental degradation will accompany rapid population growth

MILLENNIUM VILLAGES: AN AFFORDABLE SOLUTION
Village costs per person per yr
US $
Total village costs
(5000 people) per yr
US $
Total village costs over 5 yrs
US $ million
$10 Village members
Local and National
Governments
Partner organizations (e.g.
NGOs, corporate)
$30
$20
Millennium
Promise Donors
$50 250,000
$300,000
1.25
$1.5m
+ Management Costs
Source: Earth Institute, Millennium Promise
50,000 0.25

$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Recommended
Current
Sector ODA Per African Per Annum: Recommended versus Current
Source: OECD DAC, 2003
Note: ODA net of Technical Cooperation

U.S. Budget Spending
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Budget Category
Aid to Africa
Pentagon Spending

Investing in our National Security
Defense
$550 billion
Defense
Aid to Africa
$4 billion
Current
Aid to Africa
$25 billion
For a safer America