Outcomes from the 2011 and
2012 Weather Ready Nation
Workshops
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/files/WRN_Vital_Conversation032912.pdf
Workshop #1: A Vital Conversation
on Tornadoes and Severe Weather
• December 13, 2011, NWC in Norman, OK
• Goal: To develop a cohesive community
of scientists, practitioners, and users who
are committed to advancing an emerging
and more unified paradigm that focuses
more systemically on a warning system
that will ultimately reduce the loss of life
and mitigate the social and economic
impacts from severe weather.
Workshop #1: A Vital Conversation
on Tornadoes and Severe Weather
• Key: Grow and sustain effective
partnerships between those who conduct
both physical and social science research
as well as with those who create,
communicate or receive forecasts.
Topics Addressed
• Assessments of the major events of 2011
• Improving NOAA forecasts and warnings
for severe weather
• Improving service delivery
• Sharpening the science‐service linkage
• Leveraging community planning and
impacts mitigation
Cross- Cut Themes
• Strongly integrate social and physical
science into the future end‐to‐end
weather forecast and warning process –
from research to operations.
• Carefully review warning false alarms to
determine physical science improvements
and other strategies that can be used to
reduce false alarms without decreasing
threat detection and warning lead‐time.
Cross- Cut Themes
• Assess and update warning dissemination
strategies.
• Advance physical modeling of severe
weather to provide the improved lead‐time,
accuracy and precision necessary to enable
tornado warnings based on weather
forecast model output (“Warn on Forecast”)
Cross- Cut Themes
• Improve outreach and education to
supported agencies and groups: FEMA,
emergency managers, threatened
communities.
• Better understand the scientific certainty
and uncertainty inherent in extreme
weather forecasting and warnings.
Cross- Cut Themes
• Evolve the National Weather Service
(NWS) Assessment process that follows
major severe weather outbreaks to be
similar to assessments of the National
Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) that
follow major transportation disasters
• Build coalitions with corporate America.
Community Groups
•
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Communications
Emergency Decision Makers
Operations
Physical Science
Policy Specialists
Risk Mitigation and Community Resilience
Senior Management
Summary Themes
•
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Integrate meteorology & social science
Foster physical science improvements
Address dissemination issues
Ensure community resilience
Address warning performance issues
Improve forecast process
Increase standardization
Improve public education
Clarify hazard communications
Strengthen collaborations
Address human concerns
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadyna
tion/files/WRN_FinalReport120917.pdf
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/
BAMS-D-12-00238.1
Workshop #2: Science Imperatives
for Severe Thunderstorm Research
• April 24-26, 2012, Birmingham, AL
• 63 participants: Civil engineering,
communication, emergency management,
geography, meteorology, psychology,
public health, public policy, sociology,
urban planning
• Teams of authors developed eight white
papers for discussion
White Paper Topics
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Physical Understanding for Improved Forecasts
Forecast and Warning Process
Individual/Household Behavioral Response
Population Segments with Disabilities
Household Emergency Preparedness
Pre-Impact Planning for Disaster Recovery
Economic Analysis of Tornado Warning
Systems
• Hazard Mitigation (Safe Rooms, Shelters)
Organizational Recommendations
• NOAA/NWS and NSF increase emphasis on
formation of interdisciplinary teams
• Establish a NOAA Directorate of Human
Dimensions of Weather
•
•
Support R&D, test and evaluation
Work across an array of disciplines
• Create standing Social Science Advisory
Committee
• Proposals for weather-related social science
research should contribute to operations
Research Recommendations for
Projects
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Physical Understanding for Improved Forecasts
Wind Effects on Buildings
Forecasters’ Construction of Warning Polygons
Effects of False Alarms on Warning Recipients
Effects of Warning Message Content and
Warning Context on Population Response
• Laboratory and Web Experiments on Warning
Messages
• Antecedents of Household and Business
Tornado Preparedness
Research Recommendations for
Projects
• Preparedness and Response by Vulnerable
Populations
• Pre-Impact Planning for Post-Impact
Community Recovery
• Tornado Mitigation Adoption
• Contingent Valuation of Tornado Warning
Parameters
• Social Science Short Course for Weather
Forecasters
Suggest Two Approaches for Going
Forward
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FIRST: Research based upon interesting problems with a
notional context for them but nothing more specific
Examples
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Genomic sequencing and understanding DNA (biomarkers for
disease, health disparities, ...)
Social media as a rapid, ubiquitous communication mechanism
(exposing human rights violations, natural disasters, identifying
threats)
Plasma physics (disruptive solar flares/storms)
Extreme weather and improved response is a notional
context for all of the research done by this group
Hazard SEES is a good sample opportunity – a research
program, not a roadmap
Suggest Two Approaches for Going
Forward
•
•
SECOND: Research that more directly feeds a specific
capability being developed
FACETS represents a unique opportunity for creating an
entirely new approach to a VERY complex problem
• Requires substantial research, “basic and applied”
• Is a framework for contextualizing research,
conducting it, and evaluating it (HWT)
• Is not vapor ware – it will happen!
• This can be viewed as a research program with a
roadmap
FACETs Is...
• To be optimized for user-specific decision-making through
comprehensive integration of social/behavioral/economic
sciences.
• A framework to focus R&D activities.
22
&
:The Connections
WRN-Identified
Projects
Birmingham
Meeting
Norman
Meeting
Category of Challenge
1. Soc/Phys Sci Integration
2. FAR Reduction
3. Dissemination
4. Modeling
5. Outreach & Education
6. Service Assessments
7. Resilience Coalition
8. Warning Process
1. Physical Understanding
2. Warning Process
3. Response
4. Population Differences
5. Household Preparedness
6. Planning
7. Warning Economics
8. Safe Rooms
9. Organizational
A. Physical Understanding
B. Wind & Buildings
C. Polygonology
D. False Alarms
E. Warning Channel & Response
F. Warning Message Experiments
G. Preparedness
H. Vulnerable Population
I. Planning & Recovery
J. Mitigation
K. Warning Valuation
L. SocSci Course
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Method Obs/Guid
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Facet
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Fcstr
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Tools
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#7
Verif
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Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Physical Science Track
Probability of
What?
(1.A.1)
MYRORSS
(2.A.1)
etc.
etc.
Software Track
Prototype
Development
(4.A.1)
Social/Behavioral
Science Track
AWIPS-II/HS
Infrastructure
(4.A.2)
User Response
Baseline
(6.A.1)
Human Factors
in HWT
(4.B.1)
Warning
Decision
Baseline (3.C.1)
etc.
NonNumerical
Threat Levels
(5.A.1)
Training & Outreach Track
External Name
for FACETs
(1.A.2)
etc.
How WE Can Contribute (What is
Different This Time?)
• Further refine the existing, integrative research
agenda and road map
• Identify specific projects to be pursued
• Help facilitate existing and new collaborations
and the identification of funding
• Make sure progress is continous
• Continue keeping the community connected
• Continue to draw in new participants and
expertise