Three Political Truisms
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All political careers end in failure
Enoch Powell
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It’s the economy, stupid
Bill Clinton aide
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Events, dear boy, events
Harold Macmillan
Prime ministerial powers
- formal
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Head of the Executive
Chair of the Cabinet
Quasi Head of State
Commander-in-chief
Foreign policy leader
Parliamentary leader
Dissolution
Prime ministerial power
- informal
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Chief policy maker
Patronage
Government spokesperson
Limitations on power
- formal
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Parliament
Cabinet
Party
Limitations on power
- informal
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Popular Image
Media image
Personality
Parliamentary majority
Party dissent
Cabinet dissent
Strength of Opposition
Stature of predecessor
Jim Callaghan
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Parliamentary majority
Party dissent (unions)
Media image
Wilson’s stature
Misuse of dissolution power
Legacy of oil price hike
Margaret Thatcher
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Internal dissent
Media image
Length of tenure
External events
John Major
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Stature of predecessor
Parliamentary majority
Party dissent
Cabinet dissent
Media image
Personality
Economic events
Strength of Opposition
Tony Blair
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Internal dissent
One big event
Parliamentary majority
Lords and judicial activism
Gordon Brown
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Stature of predecessor
Personality
Media image
Misuse of dissolution
Events – in spades
Strength of Opposition
Parliamentary majority
Lessons from Prime
Ministers’ experience - 1
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10 years and that’s it
Thatcher, Blair, Brown
Pareto’s revolving elites
Patronage
Media
Lessons from Prime
Ministers’ experience - 2
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External events are increasingly
influential
It’s not the events, it’s how you are
perceived to be handling them
Lessons from Prime
Ministers’ experience - 3
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It’s not just the economy stupid
Major 1992, Major 1997
Brown – memories are short
We’re doomed, Cap’n Mainwaring,
we’re all doomed.