CALFIRE North Network
BY:
CDR Anton Orr (USN)
Capt Ryan Colton (USMC)
Capt Taylor Williams (USMC)
NOV 2013
2
Background
• California Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection
• 2 regions North and South Region
• 21 HQ units within all of CAL FIRE
• 228 Fire Stations
• Area of Responsibility
• 31 million Acres
• 35 counties
• Budget
• $1.05 Billion
• Fire Suppression costs ~ $165 Million
• Average Yearly Responses
• Wildland Fires – above 5,600
• Non-Wildland Fire Emergencies – more than 350,000
3
Background
4
Units Modeled
• Calfire Northern Region
– 21 Ground and Air Bases
• Air Assets - # / operational cost per hour
• Air Attack (OV-10 Bronco) : 6 / $1100
• Air Tanker (S-2T): 10 / $2100
• Helicopter w/Fire Crew (UH-1H) : 6 / $1750
5
Units Modeled
• Ground Assets: # / operational cost per hour:
• Engines: 190 / $80
• Fire Crews: 85 / $85
• BullDozers: 32 / $100
6
Most Likely Fire Locations
• F1: Wildlake
• F2: Redding
• F3: Clearlake
7
Problem
Problem Statement
Calfire has an expansive area of responsibility and a
limited number of resources to deal with fires that arise
within its AOR. What is the optimal way to utilize the
resources that Calfire has, minimizing the operating costs
and providing the service they are charged with delivering?
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Road Node Map
9
Ground/Air Bases Map
Ground
Air
10
Complete Fire Map
11
Nodes and Edges
• Nodes (64 total):
•
•
•
•
Ground Nodes - Fire houses
Air Nodes - Fire airports
Transportation Nodes - Major intersections throughout Northern California
Fire Nodes - 3 highly probable areas within Nor Cal that will have wildfires
• Has 4 additional Fire locations within the model
• Edges (321 total)
• Air movement – Air Assets travel from Air Node direct to Fire Node
• Ground movement:
• Fire House Node -> Road Node (< 30 miles)
• Road Node -> Road Node (transit network)
• Road Node -> Fire Node (< 30 miles)
12
Abstract Network
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Formulation
• Multi-Commodity Flow model
– Obj Function: 𝑀𝐼𝑁𝑌 (
𝑘
𝑘
𝑖,𝑗 𝑐𝑖,𝑗
𝑘
∗ 𝑌𝑖,𝑗
)+(
𝑗
𝑘 𝑎𝑐
𝑘
∗ 𝐴𝐴𝑗𝑘 )
𝑘
– 𝑐𝑖,𝑗
: Cost of moving commodity (k) on arc (i, j)
𝑘
– 𝑌𝑖,𝑗
: Number of commodity (k) moved on arc (i,j)
– 𝑎𝑐 𝑘 : Activation cost of commodity (k)
– 𝐴𝐴𝑗𝑘 : Number of commodity (k) assigned to fire (j)
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Measures of Effectiveness
• Primary
– Cost to respond to fires
• Secondary
– Number of fires Northern CAL FIRE is able to
deal with
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Model
• Cost (Initialization + Travel)
– Each asset has an initialization cost (𝑎𝑐 𝑘 )
– The travel cost is variable based upon distance from home base
𝑘
to fire location (𝑐𝑖,𝑗
)
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Model
• Capabilities
– Each asset is assigned fire fighting capability based on utility
they bring to fight fires (proxy is gallons of water):
•
•
•
•
•
•
Air Tanker: 1500
Air Assault: 100
Helo: 500
Crew: 10
Engine: 150
Dozer: 40
• Fire Demand:
– Each Fire has certain amount of capability that needs to be
satisfied (demand)
• All of these are uniform R.V. between 2000 and 3000 units of capability
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Model Output
Optimization Model
• What is Optimal mix of commodities to utilize
and what is the min cost?
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Analysis(Optimal Output)
Optimal Commodity and
locations for 1 Fire
Air node = Grass Valley
1 Air Tanker
Resilience Curve for Fire Costs
400
Fire Suppression Cost ($K)
350
300
250
200
Cost
150
100
50
0
0
1
Number of Fires
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2
3
4
5
Number of Fires
Cost ($K)
$
0
$ 42.2
$ 96.0
$ 147.2
$ 193.6
$ 239.5
$ 296.3
$ 361.7
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7
Ground Node = Nevada-Yuba
Unit
4 crews
2 Dozers
4 Engines
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Optimal Solution For 7
Fires:
Total Air Assets:
1 Air Attack
7 Air Tankers
40 Crews
14 Dozers
40 Engines
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Attacks
Second Scenario
• What happens when weather affects flights
ops?
– How is cost affected?
– How is capability affected?
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Analysis (Attack-No Air Avail)
Resilience for Costs w/o Air Assets
$400.0
Fire Suppression Cost ($K)
$350.0
$300.0
$250.0
$200.0
Cost
w/o Air
$150.0
$100.0
Optimal solution for 1 Fire:
Air Node = NA
Ground Node =
Nevada Unit
14 Engines
2 Dozers
5 Crews
Sonoma unit
9 Crews
$50.0
$0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Number of Fires
6
Number of Fires
0
Cost
$0.0
w/o Air
$0.0
percentage
0
1
$42.2
$47.1
11.5%
2
3
4
5
$96.0
$147.2
$193.6
$239.5
$105.0
$157.5
$205.5
$253.1
9.4%
7.0%
6.2%
5.7%
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$296.3
7
$361.7
7
8
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Attack
- How many major wildfires can we fight?
• Increase Attack Size
• Increase R.V. for Fire Demand
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Analysis (Attack- Increase Fire Demand)
Resilience Curve - Capability Provided/Req’d
1.20
Demand: 10858 units
Supplied: 12000 units
1.00
Proportion of Capability
Optimal Solution for 1
Fire:
0.80
0.60
proportion
Optimal Solution for 4
Fires:
0.40
Demand: 49332 units
Supplied: 30430 units
0.20
0.00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Number of Fires
How many more assets do I need to contain 4 Major
Wildfires up to 100%
- 5 AT
- 5 HC
- 50 Crews, Dozers, Engines
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Follow on Work
• Utility of assets incorporated into MOEs
• Improve granularity of assets/transit edges
– Add additional fire fighting units
• Restrictions on mobility of air assets
• Incorporate Southern Region and Reserves
– If north is exhausted how can Southern region
affect the fight?
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Just to Remember
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QUESTIONS?
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Sources
• http://firefighterblog.com/files/2010/07/CAL_FIRE_logo_large.jpg
• http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/06/pictures/130605-powerhousewildfire-forestfire-california-photo/#/california-wildfire-powerhousefirefighters_68142_600x450.jpg
• http://www.theepochtimes.com/news_images/highres/2008-7-5california_fires_81828250.jpg ( question photo)
• http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/photos/2008/10/016098.html (intro photo)
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