Causes of and a Solution to Global
Warming
Mark Z. Jacobson
Atmosphere/Energy Program
Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Stanford University
Intensive English and Academic Orientation Program
Stanford University, July 24, 2007
2
o
Temperature Change Since 1750 ( C)
Causes of Global Warming
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
Cooling
particles
Greenhouse
gases
Fossilfuel
soot
particles
Urban
heat
island
Net
observed
global
warming
-1
-1.5
M.Z. Jacobson
Fractal Soot Agglomerates (Arrows)
Coated by Ammonium Sulfate
Pósfai et al. (1999)
10-yr Modeled Temperature Differences
w-w/o AGHG+AAP+US
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TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
w-w/o ff. soot
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TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
w-w/o AGHG
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TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
w-w/o AAP
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TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Modeled v. Measured Temperature Diffs.
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TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Modeled 1750 to 2005
(simulation not complete)
Many cool areas will warm
in 5-10 simulation years
Measured 1930 to 2005
(Brohan et al.)
Cooling (K) after eliminating
emission
Coolinganthropogenic
(K) after eliminating
anth. emiss.
Global Temperature Changes Due to
Eliminating Anthropogenic CO2, CH4, f.f.
BC+OM Emission
0.5
0
CH (10y)
4
-0.5
f.f. BC+OM
CO 2 (30y)
-1
CO (50y)
2
-1.5
-2
2000
CO 2 (95y)
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2100
Causal Effect of CO2 on Mortality
Global-regional nested simulations demonstrate that CO2
alone increases temperature, water vapor, ozone, and PM
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TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
 Temperature
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TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
 Water vapor
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
 Ozone
-1
200
400
600
Data
Pressure (hPa)
+500 (190-575)
+640 (160-1280)
+1140 (350-1855)
1
Model
U.S. ozone deaths/yr per 1 K
U.S. PM2.5 death/yr per 1 K
U.S. Total deaths/yr per 1K
0
800
1000
World Total deaths/yr per 1K +24,000 (7200-37,000)
-1
0
1
a.ii)  Temperature (K)
Global Power Demand and Clean
Renewable Supply
Global overall power demand
TW
9.4-13.6
Potential renewable availability
Solar over land
Land-wind at 80 m and > 6.9 m/s
Geothermal
Hydroelectric
Wave
Tidal
1700
72a, 80b
9.5b
6.5b
5b
3.7b
aArcher
and Jacobson, 2005; bStacey and Davis, 2006
Installed Wind Capacity Worldwide
Country
Germany
Spain
U.S.
India
Denmark
2005 (MW)
18,428
10,027
9,149
4,430
3,122
2006 (MW)
20,261
11,615
11,603
6,270
3,136
World
59,084
(900 offshore)
74,223
Individual turbine ≈ 0.4 MW
--> ≈ 150,000 turbines
Sources of U.S. CO
Other
(34.7%)
2
Onroad
vehicles
(25.8%)
Coal
electricity
(30.4%)
Natural gas
electricity
(7.3%)
Oil
electricity
(1.8%)
2005 total
6270 MT-CO
2
M.Z. Jacobson
Thousands of 5 MW Wind Turbines
Needed to Displace 100% U.S. CO
2
Other
(131-188)
Onroad
vehicles
(battery)
(71-122)
Coal
electricity
(120-160)
Natural gas
electricity
Oil electricity
(45-60)
(7-10)
Total (2005)
374-540
M.Z. Jacobson
Percent reduction in total U.S. CO2 emissions
Percent Decrease in Total U.S. Carbon Dioxide
Upon Replacing 100% of Onroad Vehicles
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Replacing 30% of vehicles
-0.19
-0.62
Corn
ethanol
-4
-13.6
Cellulosic
ethanol
-25.5
-25.5
Wind
Wind
for
for
batteries hydrogen
fuel
cells
Ignoring land constraints
With land constraints
-23.4
Solar
for
batteries
Future U.S. Deaths Per Year
From Onroad Vehicle Emissions
1.4 104
U.S. Deaths per Year
1.2
CelluGas/
Corn
losic
104 diesel
ethanol ethanol
10,200 10,200
4 10,000
1 10
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Wind
for
Wind hydrogen Solar
for
fuel
for
batteries cells batteries
0
0
0
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind-battery
ground contact
Wind-battery
turbine spacing
Cellulosic ethanol
Corn ethanol
Map: www.fotw.net
Mean 80-m Wind Speed in North America
Archer and Jacobson (2005) www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/
Percent of Land+Near Shore Stations With
Annual Wind Speeds > 6.9 m/s at 80 m
Europe
North America
United States over land
United States over land+near shore
South America
Oceania
Africa
Asia
Antarctica
Global over land
Archer and Jacobson (2005)
14.2
19.0
15.0
17.0
9.7
21.2
4.6
2.7
60
13
Aggregate Wind Power (MW) From 81% of
Spain’s Grid Versus Time of Day, Oct. 26, 2005
Birds and Wind
U.S. bird deaths from current wind turbines
U.S. bird deaths from communication towers:
Worldwide bird deaths from avian flu:
10,000-40,000/yr (!)
50 million/yr (!)
200 million/yr (%)
Est. bird deaths with 2,500,000 turbines worldwide: 2.5-10 million/yr
Premature U.S. deaths fossil-/biofuel pollution: 50,000/yr (*)
The effect of wind turbines on birds will be small relative to the benefit
of reducing fossil-biofuels on human and animal illness.
(!) Bird Conservancy (April 2006);
(*) McCubbin and Delucchi (1999)
(%) San Jose Mercury News (April 2006)
Path to Satisfy All U.S. Energy Needs
and Reduce CO and BC by 80%
2
Existing
fossil, biofuels
(20%)
Hydroelectric
geothermal
wave, tidal
existing
nuclear
Efficiency
(5%)
(10%)
Onshore &
offshore wind
(50%)
Solar PV
& thermal
(15%)
M.Z. Jacobson
Land Area For 50% of US Energy From Wind
Turbine
area
touching
ground
Spacing
between
turbines
Map: www.fotw.net
Alternatively, Water Area For 50% of US
Energy From Wind
Spacing
between
turbines
Map: www.fotw.net
Dvorak et al. (2006)
Eureka Wind Park Example (Preliminary)
<20 m deep
<50 m deep
529 REpower
5.0M turbines
Dvorak et al. (2007)
2645 MW capacity (529 5 MW turbines), capacity factor of 42%
Yields 5.9 TWh/yr (8.2% of California’s carbon electricity)
Requires about 28 km (18 mi) or 2.1% of California’s 840 mi coast.
Summary
Global warming will hasten as aerosol pollution decreases.
CO2 increases air pollution mortality due to its effect on temperature,
water vapor, and atmospheric stability, which increase ozone and
particulate matter in urban areas.
80% reductions in current emissions are needed to stabilize CO2. Corn
ethanol cannot practically reduce CO2 in the U.S. by more than 0.070.2%; cellulosic ethanol cannot reduce CO2 by more than 1.3-4%,
based on current understanding.
FF soot appears to cause about 13% (0.24 K) of the 1.9 K increase in
temperatures due to AGHG+FF soot+urban surfaces. Its complete
removal may eliminate about 30% of the net global warming (0.8 K)
to date.
Summary
Wind-battery electric vehicles can reduce U.S. CO2 by 25.5%;
solar-battery electric vehicles can reduce it by 23.4% Wind
turbines require 30 times less land than corn ethanol and 20
time less land than cellulosic ethanol for the same power.
Sufficient wind and solar are available worldwide to supply all
electric and nonelectric energy needs simultaneously several
times over and to solve air pollution/climate problems
simultaneously.
More info:
www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol