12 Surprising Facts about the American Church
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
What is Happening to the American Church?
Nobody seems to know an authoritative answer.
We hear snippets: Mainline churches have been declining in
membership across the country for 40 consecutive years.
Evangelical churches seem to be holding their own. Classic
fundamentalist churches have lost their voice, as have
Pentecostals. The Catholic Church reports increased membership
nationally, but how has the acute priest shortage and the abuse
scandal affected mass attendance? Many observers sense that
large churches are getting larger and small churches are getting
smaller.
These 12 fascinating facts present a snapshot of what is really
happening in the American Church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1. The Percentage of People that Attend a Christian
Church each Weekend is Far Below what Pollsters
Report.
According to both Gallup and Barna, 43% of American adults
attend church on a typical weekend. But are people telling the
truth about their behavior? Do people overestimate their church
attendance when polled?
Yes! The actual rate of attendance from ‘head counts’ is less than
half of what the pollsters report. Numbers from actual counts of
people in orthodox Christian churches show that 18.7% of the
population attended a Christian church on any given weekend in
2000.
* This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches (Catholic, Evangelical, Mainline or
Orthodox churches). Approximately 3 million people a weekend attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 2 million attend a religious service of another religion. This would add another 35,000 ‘houses of worship’
to the 300,000 Christian churches and would increase the 2000 percentage of attendance to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
United States Percentage of Population in Worship on any Given Weekend in 2000
20.0%
18.7%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
6.2%
6.0%
3.4%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
2. The Percentage of People Attending a Christian
Church each Weekend Decreased Significantly from
1990 - 2004.
Numbers from actual counts of people in orthodox Christian
churches show that 20.4% of the population attended church on
any given weekend in 1990. That percentage dropped to 18.7% by
2000.
Mainline denominations and the Catholic church are declining the
fastest, while evangelical denominations declined slightly from
1990 – 2000. The Catholic church’s decline occurred even though
its membership numbers are keeping up with population growth.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
United States Worship Attendance in 1990 & 2000 by Percentage of Population
25.0%
20.4%
18.7%
20.0%
15.0%
1990
2000
9.2%
9.0%
10.0%
7.2%
6.2%
3.9%
3.4%
5.0%
0.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
3. Christian church attendance is between 1 ½ and 2
times higher in the South and the Midwest than it is
in the West and the Northeast.
The next slide shows the percentage of the population attending a
Christian church on any given weekend in every state in 2000.
Dark yellow states have the highest percentage of attendance,
while white states have the lowest rate of attendance.
The map graphically shows that the Southern and Midwest regions
have the highest percentage of people in a Christian church on any
given weekend, while the Northeast and West lag behind.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
NJ
17.4%
WV
21.5%
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
23.3%
AR
SC
26.7%
MS
19.1%
TX
18.0%
VA
26.9%
AL
23.3%
GA
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
KY
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
17.7%
MD
CT
4. Only One State Saw an Increase in the Percentage
Attending Church from 1990 - 2000.
The next slide highlights those states that grew in percentage of
the population attending church (red states) and those that
declined (blue states.)
The only state to grow in the percentage of the population
attending church was Hawaii. However, California, Connecticut,
Georgia and Washington were close to keeping up with
population growth.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Increase or Decline in Percentage of Population Attending a
Christian Church on any Given Weekend 1990 - 2000
Decline
Increase
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5. The Percentage That Attends Church On Any
Given Weekend is Declining In Over Two Thirds Of
The Counties In The United States.
The next slide shows each county’s growth or decline between
1990 and 2000 in the percentage of the population that attended a
Christian Church. Rose counties increased while blue counties
declined. 2,303 counties declined and 795 increased.
Among the states that had the highest percentage of declining
counties were Minnesota, Wisconsin and South Carolina.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
United States Counties
Growth or Decline in the Percentage
of Population Attending a Christian Church
on any Given Weekend in 2000
2303 Counties Declined
795 Counties Grew
No data
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
6. Evangelicals, Mainliners And Catholics Are
Strongest In Very Different Regions Of The Country.
The next three maps show the relative strength of each group
throughout the country. The darker shaded counties have higher
percentages of the population attending church, while the lighter
shaded counties have lower percentages of the population
attending church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Complete Presentation has
Graph of Evangelical Worship
Attendance by County
Complete Presentation has
Graph of Mainline Worship
Attendance by County
United States Counties
Percentage of Population
Attending a Catholic Church
on any Given Weekend in 2000
0.0% to 1.0%
1.0% to 2.0%
2.0% to 3.0%
3.0% to 4.7%
4.7% to 7.3%
7.3% to 11.3%
11.3% to 46.3%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7. Churches With 50 – 299 People In Attendance Are
Shrinking, While The Smallest Churches And The
Larger Churches Are Growing.
The following research is from a study of 120,000 Protestant
Churches, one half evangelical and one half mainline. It is based
on churches that were started before 1990 (so it is possible to get a
ten year growth rate (referred to as the Decadal Growth Rate)).
The next slide shows how churches grew, divided into categories
by their attendance size in 1990. The smallest churches and the
large churches grew most. Churches in the middle (an attendance
of 50 – 299) are being squeezed. Note that even the fastest
growing column (churches from 1000 – 1999) is still far below
population growth for the decade (13.2%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Complete Presentation has
Graph of Growth Rates by
Size of Church
8. Established Churches, From 40 – 180 Years Old,
On Average Decline In Attendance.
The next slide is from a study of 70,000 established churches that
were over 10 years old in 1990. It tracked their yearly growth rate
over the next 10 years by the decade in which the churches were
started.
The startling result is that every decade of churches that were
started from 1840 to 1960 have declined in attendance! (This uses
only attendance numbers, and does not even consider the effect of
population growth.)
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Complete Presentation has
Graph of Growth Rate of Existing
Churches by Decade Started
9. The Increase In The Number Of Churches Is Only
About One Eighth Of What Is Needed To Keep Up
With Population Growth.
The next slide shows the increase in the number of churches from
1990-2000. The fourth column shows the net gain – 4,600 more
churches in a decade.
The final column shows the number of new churches that would
have been needed in that decade to keep up with population
growth (13.2% more churches = 38,802).
That means the net gain in churches is about one eighth of what
would have been needed to keep up with population growth,
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Net Increase in Number of Churches in the United States Between 1990 & 2000
38,802
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
8,580
10,000
4,600
5,000
0
-3,387
-5,000
-650
-10,000
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total Gain
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio
of Churches to
Population
10. The Church Planting Rate Has Been Declining
Throughout The History Of Our Country.
The next slide is based on over 90,000 Protestant churches. It
shows how many churches were started and still survive today for
every million people in the United States for each year.
The church planting rate was quite consistent from 1800 to 1890,
with the exception of the Civil War. Another drop came during
World War I and the depression. After a spike from 1947 – 1957,
the rate dropped until 1970, and has stayed there ever since. (As
many older churches have since closed, the true decline in the
church planting rate in recent years is even greater than shown)
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Complete Presentation has
Graph of Churches Started per
Million Population
11. Existing Churches Are Plateauing And New
Church Growth Provides Less Than Half Of The
Growth Necessary To Keep Up With Population
Growth.
The existing church growth rate plus the additional growth from
new churches must equal the population growth rate, or else the
American church will decline in percentage of population
attending church.
The following slide shows the attendance gains of Protestant
churches:
•Established churches grew by 0.8% in the decade.
•Church plants added another 5.0%.
•Therefore, Protestant groups grew by a total of 5.7%.
•However, Population Growth was 13.2%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Attendance Growth Percentage of Protestant Churches 1990 - 2000
14.0%
13.2%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
Established Churches
New Churches
Total Protestant
Population Growth
5.7%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.8%
0.0%
Established Churches
New Churches
Total Protestant
Growth Components
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Population Growth
12. If the Present Trends Continue, The Percentage
Of The Population That Attends Church In 2050 Will
Be Almost Half Of What It Is Today.
The following chart shows the actual 1990 and 2000 percentages,
followed by estimates for 2010, 2020 and 2050. This was done by
using each denomination’s growth or decline rate from 1990 –
2000 and assuming the same rate of change for the next 10, 20
and 50 years.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Complete Presentation has
Graph of Projected Attendance
Percentage in 2010, 2020 and 2050
Information on the
Information
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The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually many fewer totally independent
churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data
from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was
used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance,
as reported by churches and denominations. The database
currently has average worship attendances for each of the last
10 years for over 200,000 individual churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance
ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational
and independent churches. All told, accurate information is
provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 2
million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000
percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
For More Information . . .
• Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.The AmericanChurch.org
for ordering information.
• To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
DaveTOlson@aol.com.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use