CHAPTER TWO Preparing for an Imperfect World: Strategy in Conflict Management Environments Villiam Krüger-Klausen and Liselotte Odgaard This chapter develops an original approach to strategy intended to produce fresh insights into strategy formulation and implementation processes regarding conflict management. In this effort, we combine insights from the traditions of international relations and strategic studies. The debate on strategy in the international relations literature does not entail thorough discussions of the concept of strategy since the analysts usually assume that strategy is conflated with theoretical concepts such as balancing, coercive diplomacy, regimes, etc. The advantage is that strategic analysis is based on simple conceptual models with solidly tested theoretical dynamics from international relations. The disadvantage is that the levels and issues dealt with in different settings involved in strategic planning are not taken fully into account and a process is not identified. By contrast, the debate on strategy among defense academies often contains detailed conceptual analyses of strategy. This literature identifies and systematizes the complexity of actors and issues involved in strategic planning. However, because it is situated within a military planning context, these analyses are often marked by detail rather than a broader perspective. They describe the total agenda of strategy formulation and implementation without deducing key elements that are crucial to meet political visions. 1 This chapter attempts to combine the awareness of key variables and dynamics in the international relations literature with the conceptualization of strategic processes that has been carried out in a strategic studies setting. The purpose is to identify key elements of strategic processes that are essential to realize the visions of political leaders. We use the levels of grand, security and theatre strategy to describe the process of strategy formulation and implementation. We use the variables of time, position, legitimacy, implementation structure and capabilities to describe the substance of strategic analysis. The levels and variables together constitute a concept of strategy useful for identifying problems of strategic processes and how these problems can be mended. The chapter proceeds in three parts. First, we outline our concept of strategy, describing the grand, security and theater strategic levels of planning processes. Second, we outline the five strategic key variables. Third, we conclude by discussing the advantages and limitations of our strategic concept. The concept of strategy: The strategic levels We propose to take the three levels of grand strategy, security strategy and theater strategy as a starting point for identifying key processes of strategy formulation and implementation. In combination, the different tasks, skills and purpose at these three levels of strategic planning describe the structure of the process. We retain some of the hierarchical thinking of these concepts in the sense that we recognize that decision-making power remains at the upper politicaladministrative grand strategic levels of the state. However, influence on strategic planning also comes from commanders and their staff at the theater level or from specialists working in the security strategic sector. Beyond the level of strategic planning in states and in intergovernmental organizations such as the NATO alliance, a political level devises the visions or policies that guide the strategy 2 formulation process. In most states, there is an elected body of parliamentarians, an elected president or a dictatorship that formulates the vision that will guide the formulation of strategy.1 In NATO, we have the North Atlantic Council which brings together high-level representatives of each member country to discuss policy or operational questions requiring collective decisions. The process that characterizes decision-making at this very general political level is that of persuasion and bargaining between groups of people whose values or interests are initially usually divergent. Political visions are not the object of analysis. Due to their predominantly ideological character, political visions do not form inherent parts of the strategic planning processes. Instead, political visions define the context of strategic planning. Strategy is concerned with attaining end-states by applying the instruments available on the basis of an analytical process. Our definition of strategy at the most general level is: Strategy is a process which translates political visions into attainable objectives by applying available resources within a defined space for action. In the chapter, we describe different types of strategy. These are not just mentioned at random or described according to the sectors in which they are used. Instead, we distinguish between them according to their purpose and processes rather than differences in substance. This chapter is written on the basis of the precondition that three types of strategy are used in the modern state and in intergovernmental organizations such as the NATO alliance: grand, security and theater strategy. These well-known concepts are defined with a view to clarifying our contribution to developing the concept of strategy. Grand strategy In the U.S. defense establishment, grand strategy has been defined as “an overarching strategy summarizing the national vision for developing, applying and coordinating all the instruments of 3 national power in order to accomplish the grand strategic objectives of: preserving national security; bolstering national economic prosperity; and promoting national values.”2 This definition of grand strategy is very broad. It encompasses all the instruments of national power to be applied and coordinated in order to accomplish the grand strategic objectives. It is not intuitively clear where the vision ends and where the grand strategy begins. Nor is there a marked distinction between the focus or scope of the national vision and the grand strategy. In our view, grand strategy is concerned with translating political visions into strategies. These strategies are adjusted so that they correspond to the fundamental ideas and values of the state or alliance and its constituency and international partners. This effort may involve changing the scope or definition of key ideas and values at the national or international level or formulating the strategy in such a way that it encompasses existing principles of behavior. This is central to ensure that the courses of action devised by the strategy are in line with the principles of behavior that are considered non-negotiable by central actors in the national and international environment. This is also the level where coordination instruments allow for monitoring of the extent to which strategic objectives are met by other agencies participating in the planning process and by those implementing the strategy in theaters.3 Grand strategy translates the state vision into attainable objectives by influencing and adapting to the national and international context and by coordinating the strategic activities of administrative and implementing agencies This level encompasses a process of influence and adaptation which involves conducting the analyses that transform idealistic objectives into strategies. At the grand strategy level, the normative and interest-based visions are translated into coherent strategies for implementation.4 In 4 addition, assessments are made of the resources needed to implement the strategy and the feasibility of using various instruments of power, such as diplomacy and economic and military resources. The grand strategy level entails close interaction with policy makers. It devises the norms and interests that the state or the intergovernmental organization wishes to implement to fulfill the visions from the political level. Grand strategy needs to be sensitive to public perceptions of morality at home and at the international level since the objectives are by nature based on the central values and interests of the state or intergovernmental organization. As such, grand strategy is shaped by perceptions in key audiences at the national and international level. As a consequence, one of the key functions of grand strategy is to identify the key themes in the strategic communication of the grand strategy. This communication is to promote the viability of the objectives of the grand strategy by means of persuasion and information to a domestic and international audience. Grand strategy planning is long term and the focus is on translating the objectives formulated at the higher echelons of government into long-term normative interest-based objectives. If a desired future position is considered incompatible with predominant perceptions of acceptable behavior, then the planning process must be able to devise methods of change or, alternatively, influence the norms which are defining legitimate national and international conduct. Changes of these norms require actions which are inherently diplomatic and often long-term because it entails persuasion that a change of legitimate behavior is to the advantage of the majority of other actors. As a consequence, diplomacy is an integrated part of strategic planning at the grand strategic level. Continuous monitoring of the implementation process is meant to ensure that the grand strategic objectives correspond to implementation processes. Feedback from implementing agencies that includes an assessment of the usefulness of alternative instruments of implementation 5 other than those used is to ensure correspondence between objectives and implementation. The findings are assessed in the context of the overall strategic context at the national and international level. In addition, the grand strategic level ideally ensures that there is correspondence between the strategic planning that takes place at all strategic levels including the security and theater strategy levels and the political level. For example, if visions at the political level change, or if implementation within a theater involves a replacement of current strategic objectives with new ones that do not correspond to the vision, the grand strategy level ensures that the strategy is adjusted according to the change in circumstances at all levels. Security strategy The strategies devised at the grand strategy level are translated into security strategies through processes of adjusting them to the specialized objectives and instruments of different functional sectors. We focus on the sectors which contribute to developing and maintaining security strategies. In U.S. defense circles, security strategy is usually defined as located one level below that of grand strategy. In this environment, security strategy can be defined as “the art and science of developing, applying and coordinating the instruments of national power (diplomatic, economic, military and informational) to achieve objectives that contribute to national security.”5 Hence, security strategy concerns formulated functional objectives. In our view, the development, application and allocation of resources are sectorspecific efforts requiring out-of-the-box thinking based on specialized knowledge which gives the security strategy level a central location in the process of strategic planning. It is impossible to make a complete list of the various sectors involved in making security strategies since it depends on the issue or problem which a specific strategy is meant to address. However, within the security 6 field important sectors include defense, foreign affairs, financial affairs, economic development and strategic information. These sectors tend to operate with a high degree of autonomy. Finance affairs play a particularly central role since economic resources are imperative for taking action in all the other security-related sectors. Functional sectors are governmental or NATO departments and their agencies. Security strategy deals with the more general security issues such as the future need of security-related capacities such as fighter aircraft or the development of a missile defense. In addition, security strategy is concerned with decisions concerning warfare and the use of war as an instrument. Based on the strategies developed at the grand strategy level, security strategy focuses on ways in which security objectives can be translated into strategies within specific sector agencies within for example national defense, the diplomatic corps, or the ministry of finance. The contribution of the security strategy level can be summed up as follows: The development, application and allocation of methods, instruments and resources within sectors to achieve security-specific objectives At security strategic level, strategy is meant to ensure correspondence between the opportunities and risks emerging from the external environment and the possibilities of states or intergovernmental organizations for making these opportunities and risks work to their advantage. Security strategies are action-oriented compared to those formulated at grand strategy level. The functional security strategies developed within different functional sectors are related to each other in the sense that ideally they all contribute to fulfilling the vision. Theater strategy Theater strategy is concerned with the deployment and employment of instruments. We use the concept of theater strategy about the part of strategic planning which involves the state’s 7 deployment of instruments within a defined geographical or functional area with the purpose of meeting objectives specified at grand strategy and security strategy level. In the U.S. defense establishment, theater strategy has been defined as “the art and science of developing integrated strategic concepts and courses of action directed toward securing the objectives of national and alliance or coalition security policy and strategy by the use of force, threatened use of force, or operations not involving the use of force within a theater.”6 The traditional definition exaggerates the extent to which actors and decisions at this level are meant to influence the strategy that ends up being implemented, even if in practice theater strategy sometimes derails grand strategy objectives and contributes to transforming security strategies. The contribution of theater strategy resembles that of experienced craftsmen much more than a form of art. In the theater, the strategic objectives of other levels are implemented by means of the methods and instruments available without many possibilities for changing these methods and instruments. This requires considerable management skills, experience and a flexible mindset that can administer the dynamic and complex nature of the realities on the ground. Theater strategy is concerned with the deployment of instruments from different agencies such as military forces, political advisory boards and development consultancies. For example, military leaders on the ground within a geographical theater develop theater strategies. At theater level, one objective is that deployment on the ground is coordinated and synchronized in line with strategic planning at grand strategy and at security strategy level. The allocation of resources available on the ground, the distribution of responsibility and tasks between agencies on the ground, coordinating and communicating the plans for implementation of the strategy, and cooperation with agencies from coalition and partner states are some of the functions that takes place at theater strategy level. Theater strategy 8 coordinates and synchronizes the application of methods and instruments within a defined geographical area in order to best achieve the strategic objectives Theater strategy is not necessarily subordinate to the other strategic levels. However, theater strategy depends on the possibilities and limitations which are determined by the grand strategy and security strategy levels. The starting point of theater strategy is the specific objectives within a given geographical or functional area devised by top political and administrative decision-makers and by functional specialists. At theater strategy level, strategy consists of integrated actions or plans that will achieve strategic objectives through identifying the appropriate and most cost effective ways in which to obtain objectives. Theater strategy is responsible for assessing the extent to which the actors on the ground are able to implement strategic objectives from the other strategic levels. Also, at theater strategy level actors identify deficiencies in the methods and instruments available during the course of implementation. For example, the theater level reports back to grand strategy level if objectives from grand or security strategy level cannot be met due to insufficient or inappropriate capabilities on the ground. Grand, security and theater strategy compared Grand, security and theater strategy describe the structure of strategic planning. Grand strategy is about manipulating the environment and coordinating the functional sectors and the theaters. The grand strategic level is responsible for continuously ensuring that strategy implementation corresponds to strategy formulation and that the strategic objectives are adjusted to changes in the national and international context. The security strategy level works creatively with the security objectives that can be achieved, thinking out of the box within a specific field of expertise to ensure correspondence between the conditions applicable in a sector-specific environment and the 9 objectives that the state or intergovernmental organization in question wishes to achieve. The theater strategy level is responsible for implementation and determines how the instruments and methods appropriate at a particular strategic level are coordinated and synchronized for purposes of implementation on the ground. Any inconsistencies between objectives and instruments and methods available are reported back to the grand strategy level. In table 1.1, the central characteristics of the three different levels of strategy are listed. [INSERT TABLE 1.1. HERE] The concept of strategy: Five essential variables Another central issue is the key contents of strategic planning processes in states and in intergovernmental organizations such as NATO. When such entities perform strategic planning, the standard description of the contents is made by referring to ends, ways and means developed for purposes of strategic planning in the U.S. armed forces.7 Ends are the objectives of or desired 10 outcomes of a given strategy. Ways are the methods and process executed to achieve the ends. Means are the resources required to execute the way. The heart of strategy is to ensure that the ends, ways and means are balanced and entails little risk. This is similar to conventional definitions of grand strategy, security strategy and theater strategy in the sense that it is a sequential way of working with strategy which contains no clues about the contents but only about the different stages involved in the process of strategy making. Instead, we propose five key variables defining the contents of processes of strategy making in states and intergovernmental organizations. [INSERT TABLE 1.2. HERE] The five variables of time, position, legitimacy, implementation structure and capabilities are essential to any strategy making process. The basis for strategic thinking at all three strategic levels are national and international considerations on, first, the time available to realize objectives, second, the position of the state in terms of interests and values that define the substance of strategy, third, the legitimacy of objectives and the instruments used for purposes of implementation, fourth, implementation structures such as the U.S. alliance system, the UN system 11 or a party apparatus available as channels of implementation at the national or international levels, and fifth, the capabilities available to realize objectives.8 Time affects the strategies available to decision-makers.9 The apex of realizing a particular objective may be near or distant, and the trajectory of realizing the objective may be steep or shallow. At grand strategy level, time horizons tend to be long, with the apex of realizing a particular objective being distant and the trajectory of realizing the objective being shallow. At this level we are adopting a long term perspective, such as the rise and fall of great powers. At security strategy level, time horizons are intermediate. At this level, issues with an intermediate time horizon such as nation-building and changing the basic organization of political systems are considered. At theater strategy level, time horizons tend to be short. The apex of realizing a particular objective is near and the trajectory of realizing the goal is steep. This means that issues such as the planning of a particular campaign or decisions to finance the building of schools in a particular theater are in focus. The position of the state concerns the interests and values of the state or intergovernmental organization. These are essential to define the substance in a state’s or intergovernmental organization’s relative influence compared to other actors. This variable concerns the definition of the present and future identity of the state or intergovernmental organization. Essential to this definition is its physical, political and popular identity. The physical identity is about its geographical position. The political identity is about the character of the political system, for example if it is a liberal democracy or a communist authoritarian regime. The popular identity concerns nationalisms such as multicultural versus assimilationist identities. At the grand strategy level, position is about very general interests and values such as ambitions to become a continental or a maritime power or to advance beyond the level of small, secondary or great power. At the security strategy level, position is about more functionally oriented interests and 12 values such as position on the status of the International Court of Justice or the Law of the Sea, or position on the UN Security Council on the acceptability of Chapter VII interventions without consent from target regimes. At the theater level, position mainly concerns the instruments used for particular purposes. For example, it could concern decisions to prioritize military versus civilian instruments for creating security in a specific theater, or it could concern decisions to prioritize different instruments from the same toolbox. In the case of the military toolbox, it could concern decisions of whether to use naval blockades or bombing to promote particular objectives. The legitimacy of a particular objective depends on the collectivity of states and parliamentarians and ministers’ assessment of the righteousness of the strategic goals promoted by a state or intergovernmental organization. Legitimacy also depends on public diplomacy and strategic communications efforts used to sell the objective and make it seem feasible. Influence is a function not only of a country’s and government’s stature, but also of its connections.10 In other words, allies and partners are a necessity to exercise influence and to realize objectives in the international and national realm. No actor is so powerful that it can enforce its own interests without taking into account the views and demands of allies and partners.11 Even the most powerful state needs to convince its partners that its policy is responsible and feasible in order to avoid the eclipse of common interests due to differences of opinion.12 If the other players do not endorse its suggestions, there is no reason to spend time formulating these objectives. Legitimacy at grand strategy level focuses on identifying the allies and enemies that may help or prevent the realization of the general objectives. For example, Denmark will have difficulties realizing its visions without backing from or at least no resistance from major NATO states. Legitimacy at security strategy level is about identifying the partners and opponents that may help achieve or hinder objectives within a specific sector. For example, the African Union and the ministry of defense’s Africa strategy may be a help as well as a hindrance to realizing the foreign 13 ministry’s Africa strategy. Legitimacy at the theater strategy level is about identifying the partners and opponents that may help achieve or hinder the realization of objectives within a specific theater. For example, clan leaders in Somalia and Chinese destroyers employed in the Gulf of Aden may be a help or a hindrance to realizing the objectives of the multinational anti-piracy operations. Implementation structures are the channels available to implement a particular strategy. They are the machinery through which plans can be distributed, actions coordinated and strategies unfolded at international and at national level. Implementation structures assist a state or intergovernmental organization in translating goals into joint action in cooperation with its partners and allies. At the grand strategy level, implementation structures are about the very general objectives and whether to implement these through the UN system, the global financial system, or the U.S. alliance system, or at the national level through the bureaucracy, the media, etc.13 At the security strategy level, implementation structures are more hands-on and include decisions to use the UN Disarmament Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency at the international level, and NGOs working with anti-nuclear weapons campaigns if the issue is nuclear disarmament issues. At the theater level, it may include decisions to activate particular clan structures and media within the Somali political system and civil society, winning hearts and minds to ensure back-up for anti-piracy operations.14 The capabilities available to realize a particular objective may be a combination of military, economic, financial or knowledge resources.15 Military capabilities are essential so long as violent conflict threatens survival or vital interests, and whoever offers protection against violence can exercise power over other non-military matters. Economic and financial capabilities are essential to have access to land, labor, goods, capital, technology and credit. Knowledge capabilities are essential to keep at the forefront in the sectors of technology, research and development, and education. Capabilities affect the type of objectives, norms and instruments available to the state. A 14 state such as Germany who compared to other European countries has considerable economic and financial capabilities is likely to prioritize objectives and instruments such as economic great power status, preferential status for socio-economic individual rights and check-book diplomacy. By contrast, France who compared to other European countries has considerable military capabilities is more likely to prioritize objectives and instruments such as military great power status, preferential status for nuclear powers and coercive diplomacy.16 Capabilities are essential for a state’s or intergovernmental organization’s decision to act. If no resources are available, there is no space for action and no point in formulating objectives. Capabilities at the grand strategy level usually focus on general resources assessments, for example determining if a strategy predominantly draws on military or non-military resources or, if focusing on military resources, if the inventory of fighter aircraft is sufficient or needs to be expanded to adequately contribute to fulfilling the grand strategic objectives. Capabilities considerations at security strategy level are usually about distributing the available resources in a way that indicates which objectives are prioritized. Some sectors such as diplomacy rely heavily on knowledge and network resources rather than economic resources. Other functional sectors such as ministries for private sector business often control funds for distribution between actors that argue that they contribute to the vision and the objectives defined in line with the vision at the security strategic level. Capabilities considerations at theater level are about deciding how to make use of the inventory available. For example, how many combat units or formations are to be deployed in a particular theater considering our needs in other theaters? Advantages and limitations of the concept of strategy The chapter has devised a concept for how to analyze processes of strategic planning with the purpose of clarifying the elements involved in strategy formulation and implementation. It is an 15 ideal-typical concept which cannot be found in its pure form when looking at empirical processes of strategy formulation. Hence, it is an analytical concept rather than a reflection of concrete processes of strategy planning. We have described processes of strategy-making in terms of three strategic levels, the grand strategy, the security strategy and the theater strategy level. The grand strategy level is the place where the sectors are coordinated and where consistency between objectives, methods and instruments of the strategic visions received from the political level are ensured on condition that the national and international context is conducive to these. The security strategy level is the place where the substantive objectives, methods and instruments are identified and implemented on the basis of the specialized sector-specific knowledge at this level. The theater strategic level is the place where assets are put on the ground to implement strategies and meet the strategic objectives. The strategic processes are guided by the five strategic variables of time, position, legitimacy, implementation structure and capabilities describing the substance of strategy. The strategic concept addresses the issue that political and normative considerations from the grand strategy level are not easily transformed into means and instruments at lower levels where strategy is transformed into practices and consolidated as part of the routine set of standard operating procedures. The concept proposed in this chapter tries to address this problem by emphasizing the need for coordination between the grand strategy level and the other levels. In addition, we address this issue by proposing a common concept of strategy that enhances the systematic element of strategy-making processes at grand strategy level and simplifies strategymaking processes at security and theater strategy level. We have set out to describe the contours of how strategic planning structures and processes could ideally be designed. The three strategic levels define the requirements for the process and the five strategic variables define the requirements for the substance of strategy. Together these constitute an explanatory typology that fulfills two purposes. First, the typology can 16 be used to measure the extent to which strategic planning processes in a particular geographical and historical setting are successful in fulfilling the visions devised at the political level. Second, the typology can be used as a check list for the assessment of strategy formulation and implementation processes in the administrations of states and intergovernmental organizations. We do not propose to have solved all problems of strategy-making with the concept outlined in this chapter. However, we do hope that we have highlighted some of the central aspects of strategy at politicaladministrative levels and how these aspects correspond to the strategies developed in functional sectors and geographical theaters. Endnotes 1 On the distinction between policy and strategy, see Harry R. Yarger, Strategy and the National Security Professional: Strategic Thinking and Strategy Formulation in the 21st Century (Westport, Connecticut: Praeger 2008), 9. 2 Yarger, Strategy and the National Security Professional, 21. 3 On problems of transparency and accountability associated with the broadening security agenda that decouples the strategic levels from political visions, see Arnold Wolfers, ‘National Security as an Ambiguous Symbol’, Political Science Quarterly 67/4 (1952), 481-502; Bowman H. Miller, ‘Soldiers, Scholars, and Spies: Combining Smarts and Secrets’, Armed Forces & Society 36/4 (July 2010), 695-715. 4 As argued by Robert H. Dorff, at grand strategy level the integration of various elements of power is essential because the objectives are so broad. Cf. Robert H. Dorff, ‘Understanding and Teaching Strategy at the U.S. Army War College’, Militært Tidsskrift (Military Journal) 140/4 (December 2011), 281-91. 5 Yarger, Strategy and the National Security Professional, 21. He uses the term national security strategy, but since we deal with multinational organizations in our exposition of this type of strategy, instead we use the term security strategy. 6 Ibid. 7 The origins of the ends, ways, means considerations in the works of Clausewitz and Liddell Hart can be read in B.H. Liddell Hart, Strategy: The Indirect Approach (London: Faber and Faber 1967). 8 The definition of time is derived from David Edelstein, ‘The Missing Dimension: Time and Rising Great Powers’, paper, prepared for workshop on Assessing China’s Rise: Power and Influence in the 21 st Century (Cambridge, MA: 17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 27-28 February 2009). The definitions of these variables, except for time, are based on Liselotte Odgaard, ‘Civilian power ideals in China’s Post-Cold War UNSC policies: The cases of Iran, Sudan and Myanmar’, paper, prepared for workshop on Assessing China’s Rise: Power and Influence in the 21 st Century (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology 27-28 February 2009) and on Liselotte Odgaard, The Balance of Power in Asia-Pacific Security: US-China policies on regional order (London: Routledge 2007). 9 The considerations on time and strategic planning in this paper are inspired by Edelstein, ‘The Missing Dimension’. 10 C.A.W. Manning, The Nature of International Society (London: MacMillan 1975), 190-1. 11 David Little, ‘Humanitarian Intervention: A Theoretical Approach’, in Joseph I. Coffey and Charles T. Mathewes (eds.), Religion, Law, and the Role of Force: A Study on their Influence on Conflict and on Conflict Resolution (New York: Transnational Publishers 2002). 12 Martin Wight, Power Politics (Leicester: Leicester University Press 1978), 30-40. 13 In contemporary conflicts, multilateral implementation structures have undoubtedly become more important. See for example Kimberely A. Hudson, Justice, Intervention and Force in International Relations: Reassessing just war theory for the 21st century (London: Routledge 2009). 14 This aspect is by many considered vital to win in modern warfare. Cf. Rupert Smith, The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World (London: Allen Lane/Penguin 2005). 15 These capabilities are derived from Susan Strange, who calls them the four facets of power: security, production and credit, and knowledge, beliefs and ideas, cf. Susan Strange, States and Markets (London: Pinter 1994, 2nd ed.), 25-32. 16 For a detailed analysis of French and German security priorities, see Philip H. Gordon, France, Germany, and the Western Alliance (Boulder: Westview Press 1995). 18