Employment-Population Analysis of Economic Recovery in South
Central Pennsylvania
Charles J Blankenship
June 2014
Published by the Applied Government Studies Center
Introduction
The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic recovery of the South Central Pennsylvania region
from the 2008 recession and its implications for economic development strategy and planning. The
analytical toll used is a comparison of employment-population data for the periods 2007-2009 and 20102012.
South Central Pennsylvania is composed of eight counties: Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin,
Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York. The working age population exceeds 1.5 million. The region has a
diversified economic base with significant employment in agriculture and food processing, advanced
manufacturing, business and financial services, health care, logistics and government. Major employers
include Armstrong World Industries, BAE Systems, Bayer, Harley Davidson, Hershey and TE Connectivity
among others. The state capitol is located in the city of Harrisburg. Other cities in the region are
Lancaster, Lebanon and York.
Methodology
This study applies employment-population analysis to the examination of the region’s recovery from the
2008 recession. The ratio is determined by dividing the total number of employed by the total working
age population [16+ years]. It is a preferable method of detecting employment trends rather than
unemployment rates. The weakness of using unemployment rates is that only those applying for or
receiving unemployment assistance are calculated in the equation. The employment-population
calculation includes everyone of working age. A ratio of 70 is generally considered optimal while a ratio
below 50 would indicate a failing economy.
Data for this report was obtained from the United States Census Bureau American Fact Finder.
Regional calculations are from county totals. National and state employment-population ratios are
shown to provide relative comparisons. Data and calculations are displayed in an attachment.
Findings
1. The region is out-performing the U.S. and Pennsylvania in employment recovery from the 2008
recession but has not yet created sufficient jobs numbers for complete recovery.
2. The regional employment-population ratio dropped from 63.2 in 2007-2009 to 61.0 in 20102012. By comparison the U.S decreased from 59.9 to 57.2 and the state declined from 59.0 to
57.0.
3. Total regional employment gains exceeded total job losses from the recession but did not keep
up with population gains. Total employment rose by 1.8% however the working age population
grew by 3.7%.
4. The region’s recovery performance was carried by four counties. Employment growth occurred
in Cumberland, Franklin, Lancaster and Lebanon Counties.
5. The lag in employment replacement in four counties: Adams, Dauphin, Perry and York,
prevented the region as a whole from achieving full recovery measured by a 63.2 employmentpopulation ratio goal.
Conclusion
South Central Pennsylvania is progressing in recovery from the 2008 recession and its pace of job
recovery should continue to be better than that of the state or nation. The region could reach its prerecession employment-population ratio in the near future. However the pace of growth will depend on
improvement in employment numbers in Adams, Dauphin, Perry and York counties. Those four counties
should review their economic development strategies and implement plans to accelerate employment
growth. Cumberland, Franklin, Lancaster and Lebanon counties are each on course for full employmentpopulation ratio recovery.
Attachment
Employment-Population Ratios
South Central Pennsylvania Counties
County
2010-2012
2007-2009
61.9
51,004
64.3
52,582
61.2
118,981
62.0
116,850
60.6
130,834
64.1
134,535
58.9
70,236
60.3
68,575
61.5
252,182
63.3
248,703
Ratio
Civilian Employment
59.8
64,154
61.6
63,569
Ratio
Civilian Employment
60.2
22,164
64.2
23,119
Ratio
Civilian Employment
61.4
213,562
64.1
216,568
Adams


Ratio
Civilian Employment
Cumberland


Ratio
Civilian Employment
Dauphin


Ratio
Civilian Employment
Franklin


Ratio
Civilian Employment
Lancaster


Ratio
Civilian Employment
Lebanon


Perry


York


Region


Ratio
Civilian Employment
61.0
923,157
63.2
921,501
57.0
5,881,610
59.0
5,967,767
57.2
140,919,860
59.9
142,947,768
Pennsylvania


Ratio
Civilian Employment
United States


Ratio
Civilian Employment
Source: US Department of Commerce, US Census Bureau, American Fact Finder
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www.agscenter.org.