Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice Naomi Edelson Director, State and Federal Wildlife Partnerships National Wildlife Federation March 2015 What Does Climate Change Mean for the Practice of Conservation? Climate Adaptation • The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects --- IPCC AR5 (2014) – In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities – In natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects In other words: • Prepare for … • Cope with … • Adjust to … What Constitutes Good Adaptation? • Adaptation still an emerging field • Still poor understanding of what climate adaptation means • Most guidance still at very high level; little operational advice • Danger of existing work simply being relabeled • Strong interest in understanding what truly constitutes climate adaptation and how to put principles into practice Guidance Development Approach • Expert workgroup convened to develop adaptation guidance – Federal, state, and NGO participants – Builds on previous guidance for vulnerability • Designed to demystify process – Breaks down into manageable steps • Non-prescriptive – Focus on understanding principles and use of a general framework – Encourages innovation and context-specific application • Assumes use of existing best practices Climate-Smart Conservation Expert Workgroup • Federal Agencies – Fish and Wildlife Service – National Park Service – US Geological Survey – Environmental Protection Agency – NOAA – US Forest Service – Army Corps of Engineers • NGOs – – – – – – National Wildlife Federation Wildlife Conservation Society EcoAdapt Nature Conservancy Geos Institute Point Blue Conservation Science • State Agencies – Florida – Maryland Overarching Themes Climate-Smart Conservation in a Nutshell • Act with intentionality • Manage for change, not just persistence • Reconsider goals, not just strategies • Integrate adaptation into existing work 1. Acting with Intentionality • Link Actions to Climate Impacts – How will actions address key vulnerabilities? – What is the logic model/scientific rationale for actions? • Show your work! – Transparency/traceability important – Whether novel approaches are indicated – Or existing approaches and actions validated 2. Manage for Change Not Just Persistence • Stationarity is dead! • Adaptation will largely be about preparing for and managing change • Adaptation is a process, not an end point A Continuum of Change From Resistance to Transformation • Resistance – Focus on maintaining status quo – May be appropriate for high-value assets • Resilience – Current usage mostly focus on rebound to status quo conditions • Realignment – Facilitate/manage for inevitable shifts to help achieve acceptable outcomes 3. Reconsider Conservation Goals Not Just Strategies • Goals are the ends; strategies the means • Goals are a reflection of human values and can evolve – Many goals and objectives may no longer be feasible with rapid changes • Need for forward-looking rather than retrospective goals Aligning Goals and Strategies in Climate Adaptation Stage 1 Business as Usual Stage 2 •Traditional goals •Traditional strategies •Traditional goals Climate Retrofit •Revised strategies* Stage 3 •Revised goals* ClimateAligned •Revised strategies* * Review and revised as needed, based on climate change assessments. 4. Integrate with Existing Work Not Just Stand-Alone Adaptation Plans Climate-Smart Conservation Cycle A Generalized Framework for Adaptation Planning and Implementation Guidance Document Built Around Cycle Setting the Stage Define purpose/ scope Assess Vulnerability and Risk Reconsider Goals Assessing Vulnerability Understanding what’s at risk and why is key to designing effective adaptation strategies Components of vulnerability • Sensitivity • Exposure • Adaptive Capacity Crafting Climate-Informed Goals Are Changes Needed In? • What – Conservation targets/focus • Why – Intended outcome or desired condition • Where – Relevant geographic scope • When – Relevant timeframe Generating and Evaluating Strategies and Actions Be realistic! Be creative! Identifying Adaptation Options Need here is to Identify an array of possible adaptation options for reducing key vulnerabilities • At this stage be creative! – Constraints come in next step • Several ways to generate options: – Components of vulnerability – General adaptation strategies – Intervention points Connecting Vulnerability Connecting Vulnerability to Adaptation Actions Susan/Jordan’s Brain to Adaptation Actions Identify what’s of concern and why? Key Vulnerabilities Vulnerabilities Identify broad range of options General Strategies Evaluate, compare, and select actions Which best achieve conservation goals? Possible Options Which achieve other (social/econ) goals? Which are climatesmart? Specific Actions How practicable/ feasible are they? From Adaptation Strategy to Adaptation Action General Strategies Possible Options Specific Actions General Adaptation Strategies • • • • • • • Reduce Non-Climate Stresses Protect Key Ecosystem Features Ensure Connectivity Restore Structure and Function Support Evolutionary Potential Protect Refugia Relocate Organisms New York and NH approach Types of Adaptation Strategies General Near-term Feasibility Specific Long-term Feasibility Using vulnerability data to identify adaptation strategies 1. Identify adaptation planning targets 2. Summarize the vulnerability of the targets 3. Develop full range of adaptation options 4. Prioritize adaptation options 5. Identify potential implementation partners 6. Group, Filter, and Highlight Stages 1 & 2 (Identify adaptation planning targets/Summarize vulnerability of targets) Morning presentations summarizing all statewide species & habitat vulnerability work to date and identifying specific vulnerable habitats and/or species from the work upon which to focus adaptation planning efforts Afternoon working groups by system, formation etc Stages 1 & 2 (Identify adaptation planning targets/Summarize vulnerability of targets) continued: •Working group participants are given: • (a) projected climate change assumptions summary •(b) vulnerability summaries for each target •(c) a summary list of current state-driven efforts to manage the target Stage 3 Develop Full Range of Options •Names of the adaptation targets are on poster sheets around the room •Participants are given sticky notes. Group spends XX amount of time writing down as many strategies for a specific target. •No talking – this is all about quantity, not quality. •After the time is up, participants place their strategies on the target poster Actions • Need to think BIG • Brainstorm wildly • Old options that seemed impossible may be viewed differently now • Existing practices and approaches might need to be adapted for place, time and technique • Or Novel approach might be best Components of Vulnerability • Reduce exposure: Increase riparian vegetation that provides shading over open water to moderate exposure to warmer air temperatures. • Reduce sensitivity: Reduce water use that depletes groundwater recharge to decrease sensitivity of streams to changes in precipitation. • Increase adaptive capacity: Create adjacent cool, deep pools to provide refugia. Intervention Points • Using the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework (Cross et al. 2012), adaptation options such as the following can be identified for managing stream flows for native cold water fish as temperatures warm and flows decline: Intervention points Withdrawals -----------------------> Snowpack management ---------> High elevation stream flow -----> Impervious surfaces --------------> Grazing practices ------------------> Riparian vegetation ---------------> Potential adaptation options Reduce withdrawals by leasing in-stream water rights Build snow fences to retain snow in key areas for longer Slow spring flows with check dams or beaver dams Reduce/remove roads to reduce sediment runoff Reduce riparian impacts by fencing or reduced density Restore riparian areas that provide shading to streams Evaluating Possible Projects and Actions Emphasis on identifying a set of actions that collectively would achieve conservation goals Suggested evaluation framework: • Conservation goals – Effectiveness meeting stated goals/objectives • Other goals/values – Co-benefits for other societal values • Feasibility – Cost, technical feasibility, social acceptance, etc. • Climate-smart considerations – Based on key characteristics Key Characteristics of Climate-Smart Conservation • Actions linked to climate impacts • Forward looking goals • Broader landscape context • Robust in an uncertain future • Agile and informed management • Minimizes carbon footprint • Climate influence on project success • Safeguards people and nature • Avoids maladaptation Actions Linked to Climate Impacts • Does the project “connect the dots” between climate impacts and proposed action? – What’s the theory of change? – Does it demonstrate “intentionality”? • How is project/action intended to reduce key vulnerabilities or address specific impacts? Forward-Looking Goals • Is the project explicit about its goals? • Are goals climate-informed? – Have they been reviewed for feasibility in light of climate change? – Have they been validated and/or modified as a result? – Is time horizon for benefits/performance explicit (e.g., short, medium, long) • Where does the project fall on the continuum of change? – Is focus on resistance or realignment? Broader Landscape Context • Does project/action take into account broader landscape and projected climatic shifts? – How does local action contribute to broader landscape conservation needs? • Are there landscape factors that could limit/enhance effectiveness of effort? • If proposes to enhance “connectivity”, does it define for what and consider climatic/ecological factors? Housing Density 2010 Source: D. Theobald, CSU Robust in an Uncertain Future • Is project/action “robust” across multiple possible scenarios, or optimized for one future? • How sensitive is action to particular scenarios of change in: – Climate – Ecological Response – Human response Agile and Informed Management • Does the project/action allow for course corrections, or commit to an irreversible course of action? • Can clear indicators or thresholds be identified that would trigger adjustment or go/no go decisions? • Are adequate monitoring and evaluation approaches in place/ proposed to support informed management? FWS Strategic Habitat Conservation framework Minimizes Carbon Footprint • What direct or indirect greenhouse gas emissions are associated with project/action? • Does the project contribute to (or undermine) carbon sequestration and storage? Considers Climate Influence on Project Success • Is the project designed for climate adaptation, or an existing project in need of a “climate-retrofit”? • How will climate changes (direct and indirect) affect likely performance for project? • Does the project/action avoid clearly compromised investments, or if not, have an intentional transition plan? Degrading wetlands, coastal LA Safeguards People and Nature • To what extent does the project/action provide benefits (or “co-benefits”) to people and other societal sectors? – Natural hazard reduction – Water quantity/quality protection – Climate risk reduction Avoids Maladaptation • Would the project/action increase the vulnerability to other important resources (ecological or human)? • Are there possible unintended consequences or unacceptable trade-offs? • One person’s adaptation may be another’s maladaptative response! What do These Characteristics Look Like in Practice? Linking Actions to Impacts Upslope restoration to provide diseasefree habitat for Hawaiian forest birds Minimizes Carbon Footprint Restoring hydrology to keep carbon in the Great Dismal Swamp What do These Characteristics Look Like in Practice? Strategies Robust to Uncertainty Construction of fish shelves at varying levels in stream restoration to account for increased variability in water levels Putting Plans into Action Rely on existing best practices Professional Training in Climate-Smart Conservation • Accompanying training course offered through FWS/NCTC • Guide highlighted in President’s “Priority Agenda” for Resilience • Three-day course offered to date: – Sheperdstown WV (2x), Sacramento CA, Tucson AZ, Fort Collins, CO, Olympia WA • Additional courses scheduled: – New Mexico (Jan ‘15), Hawaii (Mar ‘15), Navajo Nation (Fall ’15) NWF resources • • • • • • • Vulnerability Assessment Guide New Climate Smart Guide Associated Trainings State based reports (VA, NY and WA) Webinar series with FWS (monthly) www.nwf.org/climate-smart edelsonn@nwf.org