Ministry of Forestry and Water Works
Turkish State Meteorological Service
Serhat SENSOY
Vice-President WMO CCl
Engineer in Climatology Division
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Establishment
Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) was founded in 1937. It is the
only legal organization which provides all meteorological information in Turkey.
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History of TSMS
• 1839 The first meteorological observations started in Istanbul
• 1873 Participated in the International Meteorological Congress
1875 First Observation Network established with 16 stations
• 1915 Upper air observations and weather forecasts started
• 1925 Establishment of Meteorological Institute
• 1937 Establishment of Turkish State Meteorological Service
• Became member of International Organizations;
WMO (1949)
ECMWF (1975)
EUMETSAT (1984)
ECOMET (1999)
• 2000 Recognized as one of the 23 Regional Training Centre (RTC)
• 2008 Became member of ALADIN Consortium
• 2009 Became node in WMO RA VI RCC Network
• 2011 Re-organized
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Organization Chart of TSMS
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In-Situ Observation
Automatic Weather Observation Stations
1109
733
544
2003-2011
2012
2016
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In-Situ Observation
Upper Air Observing Network
8 stations are making 2 times observation at 00 and 12 UTC
in every day. They are transmitting data via GPS
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In-Situ Observations,
Airport and Marine Stations
There are 62 airport stations, 50 of them with AWOSs
Together with sea temperature observations in 19 stations, 40 AWOS will be
installed on buoys and lighthouse. 2015 target is 62 stations
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Remote sensing Observations
Weather Radars
10 C-Band Doppler Radars installed in Ankara, İstanbul, Zonguldak,
Balıkesir, İzmir, Muğla, Antalya, Adana, (Samsun and Trabzon are in test
phase), 50 X Band Radars will be installed in 2015
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Remote Sensing Observations
Radar composit image
MSG IR Ch-9
Turkey is been a EUMETSAT member since
1984. We are receiving data from EUMETSAT
MSG(Geo-Stationary) in 3km spatial , 5 min.
temporal resolution and from NOAA (polar) in
1km spatial and 6h temporal resolution
MSG IR increased colorfulness
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Models
TSMS is using following models:
MM5
Horizontal res. 13/4/2 km
Vertical res.41 level/10 mb
Forecast period: 72 hours
ALADIN
Horizontal resolution: 4 km
Vertical res. 60 level/10 mb
Forecast period: 48 hours
•ECMWF
•MM5
•ALADIN
•WRF
•METU3 (Marine)
•SWAN (Marine)
•DREAM-8 Dust Transport
•MEUS (Forest Fire)
•AGROMETSHELL
•RegCM3-4
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Meteorological Communication and Application Package
TURK-METCAP
It simplifies communication between different forecast centre as well as prepare charts,
images and diagrams. It consists of many modules for meteorological applications
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Products & Services
Weather Forecast
 Nowcasting
: 3 - 6 hours forecasts;
 Warnings
: ~400warnings /year
 Short Range : 12 - 24 hours forecasts;
 Medium Range : 1 - 7 days forecasts;
 Airports
: TAF and SPECI;
 Ocean
: 1- 3 days forecasts;
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Weather Forecast
Very Short-Range
Forecasts (Nowcasting)
and Warnings:
Forecasts for severe weather;
Heavy precipitation, thunderstorm, tornado, flood risk;
Published on WWW, radio, and sent to cell-phones as SMS;
Precautions managed by the cooperation with Disaster
Coordination Centers and local authorities.
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Warnings
Date
time
warning #
Severty
Dust Transport
(location)
(valid time)
(disruptions in transportation)
Rainfall (mm)
1–5
6 - 20
21-50
51-75
76-100
>100
classification
light rain
medium rainfall
strong rainfall
v. strong rainfall
heavy rainfall
very heavy rainfall
(urgent)
(location)
(valid time)
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(flash flood, lightning)
Short range forecast
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Medium range forecast
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SMS and E-mail Services:
Meteorological Warnings
To prevent and reduce the losses
due to extreme events, Early
Warnings are prepared and sent
to Public via GSM Operators
(SMS) and e-mail to 4500 users.
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FM Radio
Voice of Meteorology
Our Radio Channel (“Meteor FM”)
broadcasts in 27 cities and
reaching almost 40 million people
country-wide. Our broadcast is
accessible all over the world via
Turksat 1-C satellite.
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Android Application
Latest observations for the selected city
5 days weather forecast for selected cities
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Products & Services
METU-3 SEA-WAVE
PREDICTION MODEL
HIGHWAY
FORECASTING
SYSTEM
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Black Sea and Middle
East Flash Flood Guidance System
Turkey became a Flash
Flood Guidance System (FFGS )
regional center on 29-31 March
2010.
FFGS is supported by
WMO, HRC, NOAA and USAID .
Aim of FFGS is to make
flash flood warning for all
participating countries Turkey,
Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Bulgaria and Romania are observers and would become members in the future.
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Dust Transport Model
Surface dust concentration (µg/m3)
The DREAM-8 model dust transport model
has been developed at TSMS in cooperation
with Spain under the EU TAIEX Small
Grants Program.
The operational forecasts by DREAM-8 has
been started at June 2010. Forecasts are
published at the TSMS website.
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MEUS- Early Warning Model for Forest Fire
For the prevention of forest fires, “Meteorological Early Warning Model
for Forest Fire” was developed and results of the model are sent to
Directorate of Forest Administration.
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Agricultural Frost Warning
Agricultural Frost Risk Maps are prepared and published via website for 4 days
and are updated every day
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Drought Monitoring
Drought is monitoring by using Aydeniz, SPI, PNI and Palmer methods
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Monthly & seasonal temperature analyses
Temperature analyses have been doing by using real time data. It is using ArcGIS for
interpolation and mapping purpose. It is calculating their differences from normal. Anomaly
is the differences from normal (1971-2000) and it is determining by using Z distribution.
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Annual climate assessment report
We are preparing annual climate assessment for Turkey . This assessments
is also been contributed to WMO’s and NOAA’s State of the Climate Report.
Spatial and temporal temperature and precipitation anomalies in Turkey
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Heat and cold wave analysis
Figure. Heat and cold wave occurred stations in 2012
Heat wave (The daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive
days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C) observed in 66
stations more than one time mainly in April, June, July and September. Also
Cold wave was (The daily minimum temperature of more than five
consecutive days decreased the average minimum temperature by 5°C)
observed in 33 stations in January, February and March.
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Climate Indices studies
We are using WMO RClimDex software to calculate 27 climate
indices. This software is very good tools to detect trends in
temperature and precipitation extremes.
Trends in summer day (a), tropical night (b), warm days (c) and warm night (d) are increasing all over Turkey
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Regional climate model studies
RegCM3 Outputs
While temperature increasing
will be limited up to 1940,
towards the end of the century
it will be reached 6°C
Winter precipitation dramatically
decrease (%10-30) in south part of
Turkey and increase (%10-25) in
the north for the period of 20712099.
New server has been bought to run RegCM-4 with new RCP Scenarios
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Ozone and UV Observations
Ozone and UV onservations are very important for public health
 In Ankara we are using Brewer Spectrophotometer and ozonesonde in
order to observe atmospheric ozone profile
 Also there are 10 UV Automatic Observation Stations (5 more planned)
Calculated UV values for 130 station are given at:
www.dmi.gov.tr/kurumici/tahmin-ozon-mgm.aspx
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CAP Needs for WMO Commission for Climatology
GPC, RTC, RCC,
RCOF
Liaison with GFCS
WMO Commission for Climatology has OPACE 3 and 4 in which coordinate GPC, RTC, RCC,
RCOF and has strong liaison with GFCS. Through this centers CCl delivers climate monitoring
seasonal forecast and climate watch advisory which can be delivered via xml codes.
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www.rccra6.org
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TSMS take
place 23-24
in three
of RA VI RCC network
http://emcc.dmi.gov.tr/
NCEP and TSMS data are using for monitoring purposes. Monitoring data have been reprocessing
spatially enhancing and mapping by using ArcGIS Spatial Analyze IDW interpolation technique.
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http://emcc.dmi.gov.tr/
Seasonal Forecast is updated from ECMWF in every month for the next 3 month and contains
precipitation and 2m temperature anomaly maps. According to WMO RA VI RCC Implementation
Plan, Seasonal Forecast contains precipitation and 2m temperature anomaly maps are preparing
by using ArcGIS and updated every month for the next 3 month.
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SEECOF Contribution
2012 Summer Season Assessment of Turkey Compare to SEECOF7 Experts Forecasts
2012 Summer Season Mean Temperature Anomaly of Turkey
According to seasonal outlook for summer season 2012, in the most of the SEECOF
region there was expected more likelihood for the above average summer season
temperature, while eastern part of Turkey, it is likely to be near to above normal.
Generally, mean temperatures were above normal values in almost whole country. It was
expected probably 60% above normal. For the zone 2, mean temperatures were around
normal as expected probably 40%.
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